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stock split, stock research
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
Good movers on Tuesday: BPOP; DRIV; EBAY; MED; MRGE; SEPR; SOHU; UCBH
NEW PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/13/2003
AGEN (Antigenics--$10.5; +0.63; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agen.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AGEN is in the process of breaking out of the 3-week handle to its 5.5 month base. Accumulation is solid at 4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume; an excellent foundation for a further advance. Money flow has been moving up well ahead of the price, and the move Tuesday was on a strong shot of above average volume. Looking for some more volume as AGEN finishes the breakout.
Volume: 402.396K Avg Volume: 278.318K
BUY POINT: $10.58 Volume=417K Target=$12.75 Stop=$9.84
POSITION: QHL IB - Sept. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agen.html
Play Date: 05/13/2003
KOSP (KOS Pharmaceuticals--$22.49; +0.19; optionable): Drug manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kosp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. KOSP exploded out of a 5.5 month cup base in late April, never stopping to form a handle. Sometimes that happens when the buyside interest is very strong as a stock comes off the bottom of its pattern. It is now testing back, forming the handle its pattern did not have as it tests the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday low (20.70) and rallies back on continued above average volume. Accumulation is solid at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Strong money flow, and strong relative strength. We like successful breakout tests as that 'proves up' the breakout, showing that buyers are ready to come back in and buy once again as the stock pulls back on short term profit taking. We are looking for a continued move up from here on strong volume.
Volume: 897.443K Avg Volume: 235.772K
BUY POINT: $22.94 Volume=400K Target=$27.48 Stop=$21.33
POSITION: KQW HX - Aug. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kosp.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 05/01/2003
DCTM (Documentum--$19.23; +0.31; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dctm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Started up off the 10 day MVA (18.85) Tuesday, but volume fell back below average after the Monday surge in trade. Just looking for some more volume on the upside move.
Volume: 705.828K Avg Volume: 1.104M
BUY POINT: $19.75 Volume=1.8M Target=$24 Stop=$18.32
POSITION: QDC GW - July $17.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dctm.html
Play Date: 03/20/2003
LLTC (Linear Technology--$36.3; -0.47; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lltc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LLTC continues to hold right on the cusp of the breakout from the ascending triangle that has formed following the move out of the cup with handle base. Monday it tried the break but volume was not there. In the Tuesday chip downgrade it held up very well, tapping the 10 day MVA on the low (35.73) and rebounding to recover most of the gain. Volume remained below average. If it can survive the AMAT earnings, LLTC will be ready to move. Just need to see strong volume on the next move.
Volume: 5.292M Avg Volume: 6.639M
BUY POINT: New: $36.75 (orig. $34.97) Volume=7M Target=$40.48 Stop=$34.55
POSITION: LLQ HZ - Aug. $32.50c (63 delta) LLQ EZ - May $32.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lltc.html
Play Date: 05/10/2003
PRAA (Portfolio Recovery--$25.78; +0.18; no options): Purchases & then collects overdue consumer receivables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/praa.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. New issue in November, PRAA spent Tuesday still hanging around the 18 day MVA (25.65). Tuesday it gapped higher but sold back down. Volume was still above average but was lower. Accumulation in the stock is solid at 7 to 2. Volume has risen the past two sessions as PRAA struggled some, but the beauty is we can let it make the move for us.
Volume: 166.455K Avg Volume: 118.09K
BUY POINT: $26.45 Volume=185K Target=$31.75 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/praa.html
Play Date: 05/03/2003
RECN (RSCS Connection--$22.4; -0.24; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. RECN is working through the handle of its 4.5 month base, holding over the 18 day MVA (22.15) on the closes as volume continues to move lower and below average. Money flow is solid, moving up ahead of the stock as it moves laterally. Accumulation is solid at 4 to 2. Showed a hammer doji with tail Tuesday, and that can portent a move back up. Just need to see the move on volume.
Volume: 63.045K Avg Volume: 121.545K
BUY POINT: $23.74 Volume=195K Target=$28.25 Stop=$21.96
POSITION: QRG IX - Sept. $22.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/recn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
All current pre-announcements:
AVP
BBBY: Strong move Monday and took a breather Tuesday on lower volume.
BCR
CECO: Strong move Tuesday and took a rest Tuesday.
EBAY: Blast off.
GDW: Still working along the 10 day MVA, trying to find volume.
MME
RARE: Started falling like a stone.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 05/13/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$70.72; -1.53; optionable): Consumer electronics. Forecast to announce a split in early August. A bit early on the report, but is testing a strong move.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in August 2000 at a price of $65. This is the first time HAR has been back at that level.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. HAR blasted out of a 5-month base in mid-April, moved laterally, and then exploded Monday on huge volume. Tuesday it was testing back on lower volume, and we are looking for HAR to come back to test 68.50ish and then start back up on rising volume. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation in the base and outstanding money flow along with a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 491.5K Avg Volume: 412.727K
BUY POINT: $69.65 Volume=619K Target=$80.25 Stop=$66.25
POSITION: HAR JN - Oct. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Continued Pre-Announcements:
Play Date: 03/29/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$57.7; +0.77; optionable): Makeup, etc. No announcement with shareholder meeting on 5-1. Researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout from cup w/handle. We gave AVP a bit of room to work laterally in the breakout test, and after a close test to the 50 day MVA (56.25) AVP was up Tuesday on rising, above average volume. The move cleared the short term MVA, and AVP looks ready to start the next leg.
Volume: 1.619M Avg Volume: 1.348M
BUY POINT: New: $58.72 (orig. $57.58) Volume=1.7M Target=$65.88 Stop=$56.74
POSITION: AVP GK - July $55c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 05/10/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$64.8; -0.55; optionable): Medical instruments. Forecast to announce a split in July with earnings.
BACKGROUND: BCR has not announced a split since the dark ages, but it is now ready for an all-time high.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Blasted higher Tuesday on strong volume and then took a breather Tuesday on lower though still above average volume. After two up sessions it decided to take a breather. Since November it has put together solid 8 to 3 accumulation. BCR is in the process of breaking to a new all-time out of a long ascending triangle. Looks very good.
Volume: 466.7K Avg Volume: 326K
BUY POINT: New: 65.06 (orig. $64.25) Volume=477K Target=$73.75 Stop=$61.55
POSITION: BCR JM - Oct. $65c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 04/30/2003
MME (Mid-Atlantic Medical--$45.19; -0.48; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split on 5-8-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MME has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-28-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mme.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MME continues to edged back down to test the breakout. Tuesday volume edged back but was still above average. It may come back to test the 10 day MVA (44.24) before turning to resume the breakout. A test of that level is the next buy point.
Volume: 809.7K Avg Volume: 478.318K
BUY POINT: New: Test 44.25, then 44.75 on rising volume (orig. $45.65; $43.85) Volume=634K Target=$54.45 Stop=$42.45
POSITION: MME II - Sept. $45c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mme.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/30/2003
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$30.41; -0.28; optionable): Medical labs. Splits 2:1 on 5-30-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. ERES continues to work off the valuation downgrade, holding above the 18 day MVA (30.07) as it does. Volume remains below average as it does. ERES was a market leader heading into the valuation downgrade. The quiet action on lower volume indicates it is just a matter of time before ERES makes the next move higher.
Volume: 232.287K Avg Volume: 351.409K
BUY POINT: $30.95 Volume=496K Target=$35.15 Stop=$31.28
POSITION: UDB IY - Sept. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.htm
Play Date: 05/08/2003
FLIR (Flir Systems--$50.98; -0.88; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 5-30-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FLIR fell hard from its breakout, but it has found support at the 18 day MVA (50.95) on lower volume the past three sessions. Much as with ERES, this quieter action along the 18 day MVA is setting up a move back up from this market leader, and with the split ahead, that gives it extra incentive to rally.
Volume: 203.335K Avg Volume: 258.909K
BUY POINT: New: $52.05 (new $51.70) Volume=401K Target=$58.75 Stop=$49.65
POSITION: FFQ GJ - July $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
Play Date: 05/10/2003
UNH (Unitedhealth Group--$93.62; -0.59; optionable): Health care plans. Splits 2:1 on 6-19-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unh.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Still in the handle of a 7-month base showing solid 7 to 3 accumulation, UNH looked ready Monday but then took a breather Tuesday in the market selling. Just waiting for the sellers to get weeded out and then the break higher.
Volume: 1.121M Avg Volume: 2.138M
BUY POINT: $93.74 Volume=2M Target=$100 Stop=$91.22
POSITION: UHB FR - June $90c (72 delta) or UHB IS - Sept. $95c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/unh.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/12/2003
COLM (Columbia Sportswear--$47.57; +0.47; optionable): Sports clothing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Still in the handle of its 5-month base showing good 6 to 4 accumulation. COLM continues to work laterally on lower and lower below average volume. It is shaking out the last weak holders, and once they are gone that clears the way for the breakout.
Volume: 345.475K Avg Volume: 496.09K
BUY POINT: $48.08 Volume=785K Target=$57 Stop=$44.88
POSITION: TQQ GI - July $45c (69 delta) or TQQ JJ - Oct. $50c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/colm.html
Play Date: 05/06/2003
LCI (Lannett Co.--$17.36; +0.21; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lci.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. LCI surged a week back and has spent the last four sessions working laterally on lower and lower volume. It is holding its gains as it does and this stinginess with the gains is a sign of strength. Looking for another break higher on volume.
Volume: 104.9K Avg Volume: 145.59K
BUY POINT: New: 17.62 (orig. $17.22) Volume=187K Target=$20.51 Stop=$15.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lci.html
Play Date: 04/24/2003
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$45.13; +0.27; optionable): Urban and suburban ranchers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Strong move Monday on volume, TSCO gapped higher but then gave some back on low volume. Still solid and positions can still be taken on a further move up on volume.
Volume: 358.412K Avg Volume: 382.909K
BUY POINT: New: $45.55 (orig. $43.75) Volume=603K Target=$52 Stop=$41.94
POSITION: QTF GH - July $40c (60 delta) or QTF JI - Oct. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
End part 2 of 3
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stock split
stock research
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