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trade stock, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
Good movers on Thursday: ALTR; APOL; BSC; CEDC; DSPG; ERES; FDRY; FFIV; GENZ; GPRO
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 04/22/2003
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$6.12; -0.03; no options): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
STATUS: Triangle. CNQR is tightening up over the 10 day MVA at 6 on some very low, below average volume. This move follows its breakout in early April, and it has now spent the last 7 weeks forming the current lateral move. Accumulation has remained solid as money continues to move in and rally ahead of the price as it moves laterally. We are looking for volume to surge once again as CNQR moves up and out of this nice lateral consolidation.
Volume: 57.232K Avg Volume: 209.59K
BUY POINT: New: $6.32 (orig. $6.12) Volume=250K Target=$7.42 Stop=$5.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnqr.html
Play Date: 05/01/2003
DCTM (Documentum--$19.34; +0.5; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dctm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. All DCTM needs is some volume as it rides up the 10 day MVA (18.88) after testing its nice break higher. Volume has remained below average the past three sessions and if trade jumps higher on a move through the buy point we are in. Solid money flow.
Volume: 702.97K Avg Volume: 1.1M
BUY POINT: $19.75 Volume=1.8M Target=$24 Stop=$18.32
POSITION: QDC GW - July $17.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dctm.html
Play Date: 04/24/2003
IART (Integra Lifesciences--$26.5; +0.04; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iart.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still in that very tight, flat lateral move over the 10 day MVA (26.30) as IART hangs onto its gains after a strong break higher in late April. Just waiting for the next volume move. Excellent accumulation and money flow.
Volume: 195.911K Avg Volume: 369.227K
BUY POINT: New: $27 (orig. $26.25) Volume=485K Target=$32 Stop=$25.45
POSITION: UJI IE - Sept. $25c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iart.html
Play Date: 05/13/2003
KOSP (KOS Pharmaceuticals--$23.44; +0.37; optionable): Drug manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kosp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. KOSP is still rising up off the test of the breakout from the 5.5 month cup base. That base never formed a handle until this test. Thursday KOSP was up on rising, above average volume. Solid accumulation at 5 to 2 supporting the base and solid money flow. It is still a buy on a further upside move, but we would like to see even more volume.
Volume: 326.006K Avg Volume: 251.863K
BUY POINT: New: $23.65 (orig. $22.94) Volume=400K Target=$27.48 Stop=$21.33
POSITION: KQW HX - Aug. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kosp.html
Play Date: 04/28/2003
MER (Merrill Lynch--$42.92; +1.16; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mer.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another financial that is showing very good action, MER is moving through a 4-month base showing positive 4 to 3 accumulation. Money flow has remained excellent during the base, and for the last week has been moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (42) showing occasional volume spikes as it moves laterally (showed one Thursday). These we refer to as 'get ready' spikes and indicate strong buying in the stock even though it does not leap higher in price. We view it something like a tiger crouching down and getting ready to spring higher. Money flow continues to move higher ahead of price as it moves laterally. Looking for a strong break higher over near term resistance in this lateral move (43).
Volume: 6.965M Avg Volume: 5.918M
BUY POINT: New: 43.12; (orig. $41.55) Volume=7.5M Target=$47.45 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: MER GH - July $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mer.html
Play Date: 05/03/2003
RECN (RSCS Connection--$22.12; +0.06; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After breaking out of a six-month reverse head and shoulders pattern in December, RECN has formed the current 4.5 month base. It is working through a 3-week handle on lower volume, a good compliment to the positive accumulation and strong money flow that is moving up ahead of price even as it moves laterally and lower. Thursday volume shot higher, moving back above average for the first time this month as RECN showed a tight hammer doji closing right on top of the 18 day MVA. It is ready, so now we just let it make the breakout.
Volume: 155.1K Avg Volume: 117K
BUY POINT: $23.74 Volume=195K Target=$28.25 Stop=$21.96
POSITION: QRG IX - Sept. $22.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/recn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
All current pre-announcements:
AVP
BBBY
BCR: Continued the move up off the 50 day MVA on rising volume.
CECO
EBAY: Moved up again on above average volume after that big break higher Tuesday.
MME
RARE: Held some support at 28 and rallied on some volume. We will see if it can continue the recovery.
Continued Pre-Announcements:
Play Date: 03/29/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$57.3; -0.22; optionable): Makeup, etc. No announcement with shareholder meeting on 5-1. Researching the next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout from cup w/handle. AVP continues its long, lateral move after the breakout from its double bottom in March. It has held in a $2 range the past 7 weeks. The 50 day MVA (56.36) is rising, coming up from below to support the move. Accumulation during this lateral move is 2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. AVP has been showing some upside volume surging, and it showed another stronger volume surge Thursday as AVP showed a doji as it did. That indicates there is increased activity in the stock, but we need to see solid upside move on that strong volume.
Volume: 2.059M Avg Volume: 1.364M
BUY POINT: New: $58.72 (orig. $57.58) Volume=1.7M Target=$65.88 Stop=$56.74
POSITION: AVP GK - July $55c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 04/26/2003
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$40.5; +0.01; optionable): Home furnishings. Forecast to announce a split in July and we are working on pinpointing a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
BACKGROUND: BBBY last announced a 2:1 split in July 2000 at a price of $36.
STATUS: Testing the breakout. BBBY is moving up in a stair-step manner, using the 10 and 18 day MVA (40.28, 39.73) as it does. It has come back again to test the 10 day MVA on the Thursday low (40.21), rebounding to close basically flat as volume rose. The rising volume on the recovery can indicate the stock is ready to move back up. BBBY is still not too far past the original buy point and we look at this pullback as another entry point as long as we see good upside volume on the bounce back up.
Volume: 2.653M Avg Volume: 3.264M
BUY POINT: New: 40.88 (orig. $39.12) Volume=4M Target=$46.55 Stop=$38.75
POSITION: BHQ HU - Aug. $37.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bbby.html
Play Date: 02/15/2003
CECO (Career Education--$61.11; 0; optionable): Education and training. No split announcement with earnings on 4-22. Researching another possible date and enjoying the ride while we do.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-11-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CECO blasted off out of its cup with handle back in late April, and has rallied up the 10 day MVA (60.56) since. It has taken a breather the past three sessions after another strong move up, showing a tight hammer doji Thursday on volume that started to creep back up toward average. This looks to be providing another entry point as this is just the first real test of the breakout.
Volume: 601.12K Avg Volume: 670.5K
BUY POINT: New: 61.25 (orig. 52; 48.25)
Volume=1.4M Target=$65 (letting it run as orig. was 58.55) Stop=$58.42
POSITION: CUY GL - July $60c (62 delta, low OI) and/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 05/13/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$70.16; +0.1; optionable): Consumer electronics. Forecast to announce a split in early August. A bit early on the report, but is testing a strong move.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in August 2000 at a price of $65. This is the first time HAR has been back at that level.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. HAR is still testing the strong breakout from its 5-month base after exploding higher Monday on huge volume. Thursday it held 70 once again as volume continued to back off well below average. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation in the base and outstanding money flow along with a relative strength breakout are supporting this move. We are looking for a possible test of the 10 day MVA (68.84), but 70 is looking pretty solid. We can take it either way: a test of 69, or a move up from here.
Volume: 203.4K Avg Volume: 416.954K
BUY POINT: From here: 70.94; Test of 69: $69.65 on the way back up. Volume=619K Target=$80.25 Stop=$66.25
POSITION: HAR JN - Oct. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Play Date: 04/30/2003
MME (Mid-Atlantic Medical--$45.3; +0.24; optionable): Health care plans. No split with the earnings announcement, and we are researching the next date. Nice pattern in the meantime.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MME has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-28-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mme.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MME is still working back toward the 10 day MVA (44.56) testing that level on the Thursday low (44.79) and rebounding for a gain as volume edged higher. Looks as if it is ready to continue the move after this breakout test.
Volume: 721.1K Avg Volume: 476.5K
BUY POINT: New: 45.65 (orig. $45.65; $43.85) Volume=634K Target=$54.45 Stop=$42.45
POSITION: MME II - Sept. $45c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mme.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
ERES exploded higher, finally recovering from that valuation downgrade.
Play Date: 05/08/2003
CEDC (Central European District--$32.69; +0.7; no options): Basic Materials. Splits 3:2 on 6-2-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cedc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. CEDC blasted higher Friday and Monday, and after a quick test of the 10 day MVA (30.75), CEDC was right back up off the 10 day MVA Thursday on above average volume. Volume did not race up, but CEDC is looking solid. On a further move on rising volume it is still a buy.
Volume: 184.55K Avg Volume: 121.272K
BUY POINT: New: $32.92 (orig. $31.78) Volume=186K Target=$36.55 Stop=$28.84
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cedc.html
Play Date: 05/08/2003
FLIR (Flir Systems--$52.54; +0.97; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 5-30-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the hard fall, FLIR held the 18 day MVA (51.14) and has started back up on rising, above average volume. This is what we look for in pre-split plays, and it helps that FLIR has been a leader up off the October low.
Volume: 327.33K Avg Volume: 258.59K
BUY POINT: New: $52.88 (new $51.70) Volume=401K Target=$58.75 Stop=$49.65
POSITION: FFQ GJ - July $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
Play Date: 05/10/2003
UNH (Unitedhealth Group--$93.19; -0.44; optionable): Health care plans. Splits 2:1 on 6-19-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unh.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Again we wait for UNH to make the move out of the handle to its 7-month base. Thursday UNH showed its second consecutive doji, this time on rising volume as it held over the 18 day MVA (92.62). Could finally be ready. Solid 7 to 3 accumulation.
Volume: 1.812M Avg Volume: 2.049M
BUY POINT: $93.74 Volume=2M Target=$100 Stop=$91.22
POSITION: UHB FR - June $90c (72 delta) or UHB IS - Sept. $95c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/unh.html
End part 2 of 3
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trade stock
stock split
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