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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Friday: BCR; BRCM; IDBE; MME; SINA; SSYS
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/17/2003
AOS (A.O. Smith--$31.37; -0.08; no options): Electric motor and water heater equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aos.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AOS formed a 3-month cup with handle from January to mid-April, breaking out at that time and rallying higher. It started its second leg higher six sessions back and then spent last week in an orderly test of that move, sliding back to hold above the 10 day MVA (31.03). Friday it showed a hammer doji as volume jumped back above average. AOS sported solid 7 to 2 accumulation in its base (7 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume) and is showing excellent money flow. Relative strength broke out with the stock. Very nice test and we are looking for the price to rally with the volume. Very nice.
Volume: 147.7K Avg Volume: 90.597K
BUY POINT: $31.65 Volume=136K Target=$37.65 Stop=$30.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aos.html
Play Date: 05/17/2003
DVA (Davita--$24.22; +0.17; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. With the market potentially turning somewhat defensive, we are looking at medical and health services. They have not been laggards by any means, and DVA is forming a nice pattern as the market may get a bit choppy. It is in a 6-month base showing solid 6 to 4 accumulation, working through the 2-week handle where it shakes out the last sellers. Price/volume action in the handle is very solid, and Friday volume shot higher on the start of a move up toward a breakout. Strong pattern, and looking for the breakout.
Volume: 641K Avg Volume: 381.71K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=573K Target=$29.55 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: DVA JE - Oct. $25c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dva.html
Play Date: 05/17/2003
QLGC (Qlogic--$46.21; -0.27; optionable): PC Data storage components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. QLGC broke out of a 5-month reverse head and shoulders pattern in late April, and rallied up to 47.50 Tuesday. It has since eased back to the 10 day MVA, tapping that support level on the Friday low (45.91) on lower, below average volume. It showed a doji at that level, i.e., the open and close prices were almost identical. That shows buyers and sellers evenly matched after the sellers were ahead on the pullback. Dojis can signal a change of momentum/direction, especially when they occur over support. Looking for a bounce higher on much stronger volume to enter positions.
Volume: 3.846M Avg Volume: 7.395M
BUY POINT: $46.78 Volume=8M Target=$54 Stop=$44.65
POSITION: QLC JI - Oct. $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qlgc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/17/2003
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$26.82; -1.57; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Put. SLAB has gone from looking pretty decent to really hurting in just a few short weeks. It double topped at 31 and tanked to the 50 day MVA at 28. Friday it dumped lower on rising, above average volume. The stock is under distribution and money flow is tanking. SLAB may try a rebound to test the 50 day MVA before falling further; that is our favorite entry point on the downside play as it is the same as a test on an upside breakout as it proves up the weakness. Still, given the fall we are willing to take some positions on a further drop and then if it bounces, complete the position when it rolls back over.
Volume: 1.389M Avg Volume: 1.127M
BUY POINT: $26.58 Volume=1.1M Target=$24 Stop=$28.06
POSITION: QFJ SF - July $30p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slab.html
Play Date: 05/17/2003
TLB (Talbots--$26.51; -0.89; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlb.html
STATUS: Put. Retail is suffering with the concerns about deflation and the consumer. TLB was in a cup w/handle pattern as several retailers are, but at the end of last week it started to fall, and Friday it broke the 50 day MVA (27.20) on rising, above average volume, closing near the session low. It might try to give a test of the 50 day, and that would be our preferred entry point as failed recovery attempts are great downside entry points just as breakout tests are great upside entry points. Still, if it continues down from here we will look at entering some positions in case it does not make a test.
Volume: 357K Avg Volume: 332.771K
BUY POINT: $26.38 Volume=375K Target=$23 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: TLB TF - Aug. $30p (-76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tlb.html
Continuing plays ready to go:
Play Date: 05/10/2003
POWI (Power Integrations--$24.65; -0.29; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/powi.html
STATUS: Flat. Strong move up Monday, POWI eased back the rest of the week, testing the 10 day MVA on the Friday low (24.15) and then rebounding on some rising, above average volume. It looks as if POWI is making the test of the breakout, and it is holding. Looking for another move up over 25 on strong volume for new positions.
Volume: 735.197K Avg Volume: 668.376K
BUY POINT: New: $25.28 (orig. $24.85) Volume=970K Target=$29.75 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: QPW JE - Oct. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/powi.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
Looks ready to go: CNQR; GSPN; HTCH; MER; PWN; SFNT
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 9.69 +1.14 8.95 10.75 6.7M 521K 8.32
Buy Not Hit. Massive gap higher on great earnings. We went ahead
and entered some positions. Next will be on a bit of
a test back.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 10.81 -0.36 10.95 13.22 377K 417K 10.25
Current. Strong breakout Wednesday but is already testing the
move. Needs to hold thsi breakout.
ALT 05/07 Cup hdl 4.6 -0.1 4.4 5.45 283K 188K 4.15
Current. Strong breakout Wednesday and Thursday took a breather
Friday on a lower volume giveback of some of the move.
ALTR 04/15 Rv H&S 17.61 -0.06 15.75 18.81 9.8M 12M 16.62
Current. Nice surge Thursday but with the chip weakenss Friday
gave back some of the move. Still held up very well.
AMT 04/30 Test 50 7.66 +0.08 6.84 8.35 1.2M 2.1M 7.08
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA, getting a bit more
volume Friday as AMT moved up off that level.
AOS 05/17 Test BO 31.37 -0.08 31.65 37.65 148K 136K 30.25
New.
APOL 04/12 A Wedge 55.32 -1.76 52.75 59 2.5M 2.7M 54.96
Current. Broke the 18 day MVA but then recovered to close over
it on above average volume. Getting a bit volatile
here, and it is a volatile sector. May see it test
lower intraday again before holding. Giving it some room.
APOL 02/18 A Wedge 55.32 -1.76 46.25 52.88 2.5M 22M 54.96
Current. Watching option positions here as volume rose on the
selling.
BBA 04/05 Cup hdl 8.3 -0.69 6.05 7.55 484K 329K 8.45
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop as it broke the 18 day
on rising, above average volume. Took the rest of a
nice 44% gain and will look at getting back in on the
recovery from a lower level.
BCR 05/10 A Wedge 67.22 +1.38 64.4 73.75 657K 477K 64.92
Current. Outstanding break higher after the breakout on an outstanding
volume surge.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 12.89 +0.36 7.2 13.45 1.1M 300K 11.78
Current. Another high volume move but closed off its high. Not
bad for the market.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 21.4 +0.45 19.2 22.94 16M 15M 19.06
Current. It is loving this wireless internet access rally.
Reached toward 22 Friday but could not hold all the
gain as volume backed off. Letting it work for us
some more.
CAH 04/09 Put 58.68 +0.18 55.96 52 2.1M 3.5M 54.74
Current. Seeinf if it tops out here for a test of the 50 day
MVA near 56.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 31.48 +0.38 30.98 37.12 2.1M 1.8M 29.04
Current. Excellent move last week as CELG broke out and continued
higher on stronger volume.
CLE 04/14 Cup hdl 26.2 -1.3 26.05 30 476K 567K 24.78
Buy Not Issued. Broke lower on some volume as retailers came under
pressure. We were waiting for it to come back with
a nice test after the breakout, but this is no test.
CNCT 03/03 Test BO 17.97 -0.09 15 17.94 227K 210K 17.38
Current. Hugging the 10 day MVA in a lateral test of the breakout.
Volume is starting to edge higher.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.05 -0.07 6.28 7.58 178K 250K 5.84
Buy Not Issued. Still moving laterally over the 18 day MVA, showing
higher volume Friday. Still looking for the high volume
breakout. New buy point.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 20.51 +0.31 14.12 17.25 3.4M 5.3M 18.56
Current. Still moving higher in a down market Friday. Letting
this internet work for us, but with June options, after
another good move up we will take the rest of those
off the table.
CZN 04/24 Cup hdl 12.3 +0.12 11.34 13.57 2.2M 156K 11.65
Current.
DCTM 05/01 Cup hdl 18.87 -0.47 19.75 24 692K 1.8M 18.32
Current. Tryign to hang on at the 10 day MVA on below average
volume for another attempt higher. Lingering longer
here than we thought it would, and that is not always
a positive.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 28.5 +0.19 23.81 28.42 188K 225K 28.35
Current.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 28.5 +0.19 22.75 27.35 188K 225K 28.35
Current. Managed to recover 28, but not the 18 day MVA, moving
higher on lower volume. May be all it gets before testing
lower.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 18.2 -0.7 17.62 20.95 1.2M 1.4M 16.96
Current. Strong breakout testing back toward the 10 day MVA,
tapping it Friday and then rebounding some.
DVA 05/17 Cup hdl 24.22 +0.17 24.65 29.55 641K 573K 23.45
New.
ELAB 03/06 Cup hdl 31.64 -0.24 24.06 28.88 89K 325K 30.38
Current. Doji that tested the 18 day on the low. Long in the
tooth on this rally, but could have some more here.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 13.77 -0.1 10.9 13.15 3M 4.4M 12.34
Current. Strong move last week but took a breather Friday on
lower volume w/the market.
FDX 03/24 Cup hdl 62.5 +0.43 57.85 66 1.4M 2.2M 60.71
Current. Ncie test lower, holding the 10 day MVA on the close
and then starting the rebound Friday.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 16.68 -0.29 15.3 18.32 339K 750K 15.55
Current. Nice move last week on volume, taking a rest Friday
on lower volume.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 10 -0.12 9.2 10.96 90K 195K 9.11
Current. Strong volume move last week then resting late in the
week on lower volume.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 36.67 -1.48 26.5 30.75 354K 521K 34.05
Current. Strong surge late in the week, taking a rest Friday
on lower volume.
GS 04/26 Cup hdl 76.7 +0.6 76.9 82 4.5M 5M 75.22
Current. Nice volume moves up late in teh week after a test
of support at 74.
GSPN 04/29 Cup hdl 6.96 -0.04 6.39 8.25 1.8M 2.1M 6.44
Current. Very nice doji right on the 10 day MVA as volume backed
off. Looks ready.
HTCH 05/14 A Wedge 27.56 -0.15 27.78 33.35 535K 802K 25.84
Buy Not Issued. Still holding up well, testing lower Friday but managing
a solid rebound.
IDBE 04/16 Rv H&S 10.43 +0.98 8.17 11 1.9M 376K 9
Current. Beautiful rally Friday afte testing the 18 day Thursday
intraday to shake out the sellers.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 13.16 +0.09 10.6 13.42 11M 17M 11.94
Current. Great gap higher last week, holding the move Friday
and starting back up.
KOSP 05/13 Test BO 23.09 -0.35 22.94 27.48 396K 400K 21.33
Buy Not Issued. Not giving the action we wanted, unable to make a clean
break higher yet.
LLTC 03/20 Cup hdl 35.25 -0.93 34.97 40.48 6.3M 7M 34.55
Current. Held the 18 day MVA on the close on lower, below average
volume selling. It is doing its best to hold up in
the chip selling, and holding the 18 day would be teh
best way to do that.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 58.59 -0.75 58.5 67.78 344K 610K 57.04
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA though showing much
lower volume late in the week. Looks as if it is coming
back to test toward 58.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 21.5 -0.45 21.25 25.48 419K 825K 20.45
Current. Good price move Thursday though volume was not there.
Volume has been lowe but for that first move up off
the 18 day 6 sessions back. If it cannot generate some
more volume we are going to give it very little room.
MED 04/28 Cup hdl 9.41 -0.04 8.7 10.42 136K 145K 8.09
Current. Moving laterally in a tight range after teh nice Tuesday
jump up off the 10 day MVA.
MER 04/28 Cup hdl 42.37 -0.55 41.55 47.45 6.9M 7.5M 41.39
Current. Still holding the 10 day MVA as it works laterally.
Volume was up on the Thursday rally higher and was
up on the Friday turn back down. Letting it work to
see if ti will make a stronger move with the financials.
MME 04/30 BO 46.8 +1.5 45.65 54.45 894K 634K 44.65
Current. Excellent bounce up off the 10 day MVA on stronger
volume. Nice.
MRGE 04/24 Rv H&S 10.23 +0.26 8.06 10.45 106K 65K 9.05
Current. Nice week, and started back up Fraday after a short rest.
MUSE 05/03 Test 18 8.45 -0.05 7.75 9.35 3.4M 2M 7.48
Current. Continues to work up the 10 day MVA on rising volume,
showing an excellent surge Thursday.
NENG 05/05 Cup hdl 2.19 +0.01 2.08 3.44 135K 232K 1.98
Current. Still very choppy trade over the 18 day MVA, trying
to work higher still. Uptrend is in tact.
NSCN 04/23 Cup hdl 22.16 0 21.17 25.42 1M 2.5M 20.94
Current. Lateral move late in the week after a super blast higher
on volume.
NSM 04/18 Cup hdl 24 -0.15 19.55 24.88 3M 3.8M 22.25
Current. A strong semiconductor performer, NSM surged early
in the week and then held its ground in the chip selling
that capped the action.
NTES 04/01 Cup 28.36 +0.65 17 27 936K 1M 25.38
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA in a continued impressive
show.
NVDA 05/08 Cup hdl 21.26 +0.2 17.55 23.55 8.5M 11M 18.75
Buy Not Issued. Missed the test, looking for more than a tap at 20
before it started back up.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 31.44 +0.71 19.05 31 875K 1.2M 28.25
Current. A market leader that continues to run up the 10 day
MVA though volume remains below average.
PKI 03/04 Test BO 12.1 +0.24 9.16 13.55 717K 1M 11
Current. Nice week, continuing the move Friday though volume
backed off. New target.
POWI 05/10 Flat 24.65 -0.29 24.85 29.75 735K 970K 23.45
Current. Nice test of the 10 day MVA, showing a tight doji on
rising volume. Looks ready for the next move.
PWN 05/07 BO 11.3 -0.18 11.42 13.75 107K 117K 10.62
Buy Not Issued. Very nice test of the 10 day MVA, holding that level
Friday on stronger, above average volume.
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 46.21 -0.27 46.78 54 3.8M 8M 44.65
New.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 46.21 -0.27 38.85 45 3.8M 11M 44.24
Current. Still in the nice, orderly test of the 10 day MVA,
showing another nice doji.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 46.21 -0.27 41.4 50 3.8M 25M 44.24
QLGC 08/17 CCall 46.21 -0.27 36.48 0 3.8M 12M 44.24
Current.
RECN 05/03 Cup hdl 21.3 -0.82 23.74 28.25 75K 195K 21.96
Buy Not Hit. Well, it did not hold the doji at the 18 day, falling
to the 50 day on lighter volume.
REDF 04/21 BO 5.15 -0.37 4.35 7.25 496K 300K 5.18
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop as REDF was breaking the
18 day on rising volume.
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 5.53 -0.22 4.84 7.1 1M 132K 5.45
Current. Closed below the 18 day MVA on huge volume. Ready on
the sell button if it does not rebound.
RMD 05/03 Test BO 36.25 -0.35 37.75 43.75 265K 322K 35.92
Buy Not Issued. Is coming back for a full test of the breakout once
again, holding the 18 day MVA as volume moved back
above average. Needs to bounce.
RTIX 04/23 Cup hdl 10.99 +0.01 10.45 12.55 44K 150K 10.12
Current. Still moving in the strong uptrend over the 10 day
MVA, taking a breather Friday on no volume.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 15.05 0 12.22 16 621K 696K 13.94
Current. Another good week though closing it out with a doji
on above average volume. Still letting it work higher.
SEPR 04/12 Test BO 20.61 -0.59 17.1 21 1.9M 1.8M 19.41
Current. Turned lower Friday after a very volatile Thursday
on strong volume. Needs to hold the 18 day on any further
test.
SFNT 05/12 Cup hdl 27.43 -0.38 28.5 32.75 136K 394K 26.5
Current. Still a nice handle on some very low volume.
SHRP 05/01 Cup hdl 20.58 -0.72 21.45 25.25 149K 293K 19.95
Buy Not Issued. Retail is suffering and SHRP is testing the 18 day
on lower volume. Not the best action as it turned down
from a gap higher Wednesday on stronger volume.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 8.25 +0.2 7.58 9.55 259K 125K 7.35
Buy Not Issued. We missed the bounce up on this one.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 14.78 +0.39 9.35 13.45 3.5M 2.5M 12.38
Current. Up again Friday on continued above average volume.
SLAB 05/17 Put 26.82 -1.57 26.58 24 1.4M 1.1M 28.06
New.
SPLS 03/31 Test 50 19.98 -0.02 20.3 23.55 3.1M 5M 19.68
Current. Retail having a harder time of it, so wont let it slip
further.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 29.37 +0.95 12.25 15.45 197K 110K 26.22
Current. Started back up Friday after a Thursday pause. Super
week for SSYS.
THOR 04/05 Test BO 13.48 +0.13 13.5 16.26 510K 721K 12.98
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on lower volume after thudding
down to that level following an early week gain. Has
to bounce here.
TLB 05/17 Put 26.51 -0.89 26.38 23 357K 375K 27.45
New.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43.45 -0.91 43.75 52 264K 603K 42.85
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA Friday on lower volume.
UCOMA 03/31 Cup hdl 4.8 -0.14 3.35 4.48 1.2M 875K 4.21
Current. Testing back some on lighter volume after the big Wednesday
move on volume.
UNTD 04/26 Test 18 21.67 -0.13 20.45 24.4 585K 1.9M 20.84
Current. Struggling to get over 22 on continued low, below average
volume.
UNTD 03/15 Dbl btm 21.67 -0.13 17.28 20.75 585K 1.2M 20.84
Current.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 18.63 -0.31 18.12 21.75 144K 226K 17.92
Current. Hard time getting over 19 all week. Needs to clear
it with some volume this week.
VIVO 05/07 BO 9.32 +0.05 9.56 11.25 84K 45K 8.94
Buy Not Issued. New buy point after showing strong volume Friday trying
to make the breakout.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 25.77 -0.12 19.76 20 7.3M 8.5M 22.05
Current. Still moving higher and higher up the 10 day MVA though
on below average volume.
VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 23.85 -0.14 19.98 23.85 263K 156K 22.26
Current. Tight doji on lower volume as it tests back the move.
VTAL 04/23 Cup hdl 16.4 -0.39 14.25 17.12 152K 150K 15
Current. Nice test of the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
WPI 05/05 Flat 36.8 +0.54 31.62 38 1.2M 1.9M 34.05
Current. Starting to edge higher after the big move up and following
pause.
XLNX 03/20 Test BO 28.41 -0.49 28.05 34.55 8.7M 14M 27.64
Current. Still holding the 10 day MVA on below average volume
even in the tougher chip environment.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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