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stock recommendation, stock picking
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: SSYS
Monday Plays:
CVC: Lower volume pullback to the 10 day MVA.
TLB: Sold hard early and then rebounded to cut the losses some. May test before falling further.
ROK: Fell to the 50 day MVA.
QLGC: Turned and fell to the 18 day MVA.
Best Plays:
1) ISPH: Bucking the market with a nice rally on volume.
2) PLB: Technically eroding away, ready to fall.
3) Continuing: CNQR is holding up well. VSTA is in a great test.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/19/2003
ISPH (Inspire Pharmaceuticals--$16.15; +1; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isph.html
STATUS: Flat. Unlike the other drugs stocks Monday, ISPH was heading higher on rising, above average volume. It is ready to break out form a 3-month base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Solid money flow as well and relative strength ready to make a breakout to confirm any move higher. We like that ISPH was able not only hold up but move up as the market sold. Now we are watching for it to clear the high in the flat base on continued strong volume.
Volume: 572.328K Avg Volume: 312.954K
BUY POINT: $16.28 Volume=469K Target=$19.55 Stop=$15.05
POSITION: JPU IV - Sept. $15c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/isph.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/19/2003
LLTC (Linear Technology--$33.19; -2.06; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lltc.html
STATUS: Put. LLTC was performing nicely, attempting a lateral consolidation of a cup with handle breakout. That ended abruptly Monday as LLTC tanked through the 50 day MVA (33.59) on an above average volume spike. It may fall further right from here or it might try a test of the 50 day before falling further. With the downward momentum, we are looking at picking up some positions on a further fall through the buy point on volume, and then afgain after a test fails.
Volume: 8.026M Avg Volume: 6.838M
BUY POINT: $33.05 Volume=7.5M Target=$29 Stop=$34.88
POSITION: LLQ SG - July $35p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lltc.html
Play Date: 05/19/2003
PLB (American Italian Pasta--$41.72; -0.23; optionable): Packaged foods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plb.html
STATUS: Put. PLB broke the 50 day MVA (43.18) three weeks back on a big volume surge and has moved between that resistance and 42 since. It is now back at the bottom of that range, dropping hard to that point Monday on rising, above average volume. The stock is under some serious distribution, not accumulation, during this lateral move. Money flow is falling quickly. We are looking for PLB to follow money flow down to the 200 day MVA (38.87) or so for a nice, quick play.
Volume: 265.4K Avg Volume: 225K
BUY POINT: $41.62 Volume=275K Target=$39.12 Stop=$42.88
POSITION: PLB SI - July $45p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/plb.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
WMT 02/05 Put 52.47 -0.45 0 0 8.6M 8.2M 0
Doji at the 200 day MVA. Maybe it has stopped selling.
AMZN 05/03 BO 31.56 -1.49 30.3 35.45 9.8M 12M 30.08
Current. Fell to the 10 day MVA on rising, above average volume. Bought something from AMZN this weekend, but that did not help.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 20 -1.4 19.2 22.94 15M 15M 19.06
Current. Lower volume but a thud lower, giving back two sessions of gains.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 86.45 -2.54 88.62 100 7.3M 14M 86.85
Current. Volume rose but barely and still below average. IBM sold just below the 18 day. We decided to let it ride another session to see if it holds above 85.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 9.81 +0.12 9.64 11.65 1.4M 521K 8.95
Current. Gapped lower but then managed to post a small gain on continued solid volume.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 4.39 -0.21 4.45 5.45 523K 244K 4.21
Current. Tested back some on lower volume after the strong Friday breakout.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 10.71 -0.1 10.95 13.22 254K 417K 10.25
Current. Lower volume test where it looks as if AGEN will fill the gap down to 10.50.
ALTR 04/15 Rv H&S 16.9 -0.71 15.75 18.81 8.3M 12M 16.62
Current. Lower volume but fell through the 10 day MVA on the way to the 18 day.
AMZN 05/03 BO 31.56 -1.49 30.3 35.45 9.8M 12M 30.08
Current. Fell to the 10 day MVA on rising, above average volume. Bought something from AMZN this weekend, but that did not help.
ASCL 05/07 FlyPlat 3.4 -0.29 4.05 4.96 1.8M 1.7M 3.77
Buy Not Hit.
BCE 04/05 Cup 20.48 -0.2 19.9 23.75 129K 550K 20.09
Current. Nice low volume 10 day MVA test.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 12.31 -0.58 7.2 13.45 865K 300K 11.78
Current. Gapped higher but gave the move back. Lower volume and not bad action.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 20 -1.4 19.2 22.94 15M 15M 19.06
Current. Lower volume but a thud lower, giving back two sessions of gains.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 38.23 -0.92 40.54 47.55 13M 23M 38.45
Buy Not Issued.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 29.99 -1.49 30.98 37.12 2.4M 1.8M 29.04
Current. Turned back on rising volume but still above the 10 and 18 day MVA.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6 -0.05 6.28 7.58 270K 250K 5.84
Buy Not Issued. Still holding up well, showing a doji on rising, average volume.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 32.47 -0.53 32 38 569K 1.3M 31.48
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounded. Low volume.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 19.35 -1.16 14.12 17.25 3M 5.3M 18.56
Current. Needs to hold at the 18 day MVA after that lower volume rise to the early May high.
CVC 05/17 Test 50 21.22 -0.78 22.35 26.84 1.6M 3M 20.79
Buy Not Hit.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 9.17 -0.67 9.04 11.35 1.4M 1.9M 9.11
Current. Thumped down to the 18 day MVA. Lower volume, but needs to hold here.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 27.75 -0.75 23.81 28.42 242K 225K 28.35
Current. Sliding lower but not major selling.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 27.75 -0.75 22.75 27.35 242K 225K 28.35
Current.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 17.24 -0.96 17.62 20.95 978K 1.4M 16.96
Current. Down to the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Now or never.
DSPG 04/26 Test BO 21.4 -2.27 21.1 25.1 915K 300K 22.04
Exited.
DSPG 04/09 Test BO 21.4 -2.27 19.35 23 915K 308K 22.04
Exited. Knifed through the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Took
the rest of the $ off the table with a trailing stop.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 96.6 -2.59 69.45 92 6.4M 12M 94.92
Current. Fell to the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. About the best you could ask for in this market.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 96.6 -2.59 62.45 92 6.4M 12M 94.92
Current.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 13.27 -0.5 10.9 13.15 4.5M 4.4M 12.34
Current. Turned lower on rising, above average volume. Still well above its short term MVA but needs to hold at those.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 15.79 -0.89 15.3 18.32 677K 750K 15.55
Current. Down to the 10 day MVA on rising volume. Selling harder than we want.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 9.66 -0.34 9.2 10.96 246K 195K 9.11
Current. Falling toward the 10 day MVA as well on rising volume.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 45.96 -2.43 22.34 37.45 635K 198K 44.44
Current. Sold back more than we have seen in a long time with some rising, average volume. Needs to hold the 18 day.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 15.67 -0.48 14.88 17.88 562K 1.2M 15.55
Current. Trying to hang near the 18 day.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 15.67 -0.48 14.65 17 562K 1.2M 15.35
Current.
IART 04/24 FlyPlat 25.23 -0.46 26.25 32 440K 485K 25.45
Fell thru 18 day MVA on rising volume. May have been
a shakeout from the flying plateau, but did not want
to hang around given the stronger trade.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 86.45 -2.54 88.62 100 7.3M 14M 86.85
Current. Volume rose but barely and still below average. IBM sold just below the 18 day. We decided to let it ride another session to see if it holds above 85.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 35.3 -1 0 0 266K 375K 36
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 15.65 -0.48 11.6 15.32 348K 293K 14.18
Current. Held up well on lower volume.
ISPH 05/19 Flat 16.15 +1 16.28 19.55 572K 469K 15.05
New.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 12.64 -0.52 10.6 13.42 13M 17M 11.94
Current. Rising but still below average volume as JNPR tested toward the 10 day MVA.
LLTC 05/19 Put 33.19 -2.06 33.05 29 8M 7.5M 34.88
New.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 21.5 0 21.25 25.48 874K 825K 20.45
Current. Very nice action in a selling market, holding steady on rising, above average volume.
MME 04/30 BO 46.55 -0.25 45.65 54.45 552K 634K 44.65
Current. Held its gains on lower volume. Not bad considering the market.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.8 -0.77 26.62 30 55M 57M 25.55
MXIM 04/18 Rv H&S 36.45 -1.71 40.12 45 9M 1.2M 38.65
Exited. Fell thru 50 day hard.
MYK 03/22 Cup hdl 8.38 -0.07 8.88 10.88 264K 180K 8.39
Exited. Rising volume as it slid below the 18 day for the second
straight session.
NTES 04/01 Cup 26.9 -1.46 17 27 2.2M 1M 25.38
Current. Testing back to the 10 day MVA on strong volume, managing to rebound to hold easily over that level.
NVDA 05/08 Cup hdl 19.89 -1.37 17.55 23.55 10M 11M 18.75
Buy Not Issued. Testing back toward the 10 day MVA on rising volume, but still pretty modest. Holding the 10 day and a rally could be a good entry point.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 29.6 -1.84 19.05 31 963K 1.2M 28.25
Current. Low volume pullback to the 10 day MVA.
PLB 05/19 Put 41.72 -0.23 41.62 39.12 265K 275K 42.88
New.
QCOM 04/16 Put 30.27 -0.03 32.56 29 18M 16M 30.28
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 44.34 -1.87 46.78 54 4.8M 8M 44.65
Buy Not Hit. below average volume, but sold below the 10 day MVA.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 44.34 -1.87 38.85 45 4.8M 11M 44.24
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 44.34 -1.87 41.4 50 4.8M 25M 44.24
QLGC 08/17 CCall 44.34 -1.87 36.48 0 4.8M 12M 44.24
Current.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 64.13 -1.72 0 0 435K 0 62.45
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 5.75 +0.22 4.84 7.1 191K 132K 5.45
Current. Managed to recover the short term MVA though on lower, below average volume.
RL 04/10 Cup hdl 22.86 -0.65 23.82 27.94 388K 433K 22.15
Buy Not Issued.
ROK 05/17 Cup hdl 21.74 -1 23.06 27.65 538K 1.3M 21.75
Buy Not Hit.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 14.35 -0.7 12.22 16 707K 696K 13.94
Current. Sold down to the 10 day MVA on a modest volume increase. Still in good shape.
SFNT 05/12 Cup hdl 24.76 -2.67 28.5 32.75 673K 394K 26.5
Current. Falling on hard volume through the 18 day MVA. Finished off the low so expecting a rebound to test 26.
SHRP 05/01 Cup hdl 20.4 -0.18 21.45 25.25 251K 293K 19.95
Buy Not Issued.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 7.99 -0.26 7.58 9.55 180K 125K 7.35
Buy Not Issued. Holding up well, but if tests 7.50ish, a good entry point.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 13.39 -1.38 9.35 13.45 4.6M 2.5M 12.38
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA on rising volume. A leader that fell a ways to get there. Has the cushion and needs to use it.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 22 -0.83 10.55 21.45 2.3M 800K 19.98
Current. Held up very well in the selling.
SPLS 03/31 Test 50 19.74 -0.24 20.3 23.55 4M 5M 19.68
Current. Hanging around the 18 day MVA on modest volume so left it alone.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 31.23 +1.86 12.25 15.45 607K 110K 26.22
Current. Up yet again.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 46.62 -1.34 0 0 1.8M 5M 0
THOR 04/05 Test BO 12.72 -0.76 13.5 16.26 647K 721K 12.98
Exited. Looked ready to move off the 10 day MVA, but the market
ruled and pushed ith thru the 18 day.
TLB 05/17 Put 26.01 -0.5 26.38 23 231K 375K 27.45
Buy Not Issued. Tanked early but then rallied back. We probably should
have started with a partial position, but the action
suggested a bounce up to test the 50 day. We will be
looking for that now, obviously, to enter new positions.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 42.21 -1.24 43.75 52 1.3M 603K 42.85
Current. Fell hard on the LOW news, but we knew to let it make a comeback and that is what it did. It is making too much $ to stay down for long.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 42.21 -1.24 38.6 44.38 1.3M 577K 42.85
Current.
TXN 05/10 Cup hdl 18.77 -0.82 20.45 24.55 9.2M 16M 18.96
Buy Not Hit.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 34.39 -1.77 29.12 33.55 9.5M 8.3M 33.74
Current. Down to the 10 day MVA but on lower volume.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 18.55 -0.08 18.12 21.75 203K 226K 17.92
Current. Holding up very well.
VIVO 05/07 BO 9.2 -0.12 9.56 11.25 49K 45K 8.94
Buy Not Issued.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 24.2 -1.57 19.76 20 9M 8.5M 22.05
Current. Selling below the 10 day MVA.
VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 23.33 -0.52 19.98 23.85 407K 156K 22.26
Current. Nice test of the 10 day MVA.
VTAL 04/23 Cup hdl 14.49 -1.91 14.25 17.12 513K 150K 15
Exited. Used a trailing stop as VTAL broke the 10 and 18 day
on a volume surge.
WMT 02/05 Put 52.47 -0.45 0 0 8.6M 8.2M 0
Doji at the 200 day MVA. Maybe it has stopped selling.
XLNX 03/20 Test BO 27.03 -1.38 28.05 34.55 7.5M 14M 27.64
Exited. Another stock falling thru the 18 day MVA & we cut
it off before it fell further.
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 9.57 -0.49 6.95 8.42 3.9M 6.5M 9.35
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Not bad action at all.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 25.95 -1.8 17.32 25 16M 20M 25.92
Current. Tanked to the 18 day MVA on volume. Needs to hold.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
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