trend trading stock, trading system

Begin part 2 of 2

THE PLAYS

Monday and Wednesday we look at some stocks ready to move for the next session. Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday we have full reports with a complete summary table.

Good movers Monday: AMT; CAH; PWN; PRAA

NEW PLAYS:

Upside:

Play Date: 05/19/2003
ADPT (Adaptec--$7.24; -0.21; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adpt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. One of the leading tech sectors, ADPT broke from a 4.5 month cup with handle base last Monday, rallied a bit, then was taken back in the selling late last week. Volume backed off, however, and ADPT has now come back to test the 18 day MVA on the Monday low (7.20). volume rose, but remained below average. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is excellent as well. This is a stock that could hold right here and start the move back up after perhaps an intraday test lower Tuesday. We wan to see it making the upside move on strong volume.
Volume: 653.017K Avg Volume: 678.954K
BUY POINT: $7.65 Volume=825K Target=$9.21 Stop=$7.11
POSITION: APQ JU - Oct. $7.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adpt.html

Downside:

Play Date: 05/19/2003
PRX (Pharmaceutical Resources--$38.45; -1.05; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prx.html
STATUS: Put. PRX has been trading below the 50 day MVA (40.36) for the past two weeks after gapping below that level on massive volume. It has moved laterally between 37.50 and 40 since, but made a lower high last Friday on lower volume. It did not sell off hard Monday on the selling in the drug sector, but it is undergoing heavy distribution during this lateral move with money flow tanking ahead of the stock price. We are looking for it to make the breakdown on higher volume and follow that money flow lower.
Volume: 478.3K Avg Volume: 708.227K
BUY POINT: $38.18 Volume=700K Target=$35 Stop=$39.75
POSITION: PRX SH - July $40p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/prx.html

CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS

Upside:

Play Date: 04/22/2003
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$6; -0.05; no options): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
STATUS: Triangle. Ignoring the selling, CNQR held its ground on rising, average volume, tapping at the 18 day MVA on the low (5.92) and rebounding. Excellent money flow and solid accumulation, and if it gets the chance it will make its move.
Volume: 270.5K Avg Volume: 213.363K
BUY POINT: $6.28 (orig. $6.12) Volume=250K Target=$7.58 Stop=$5.84
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnqr.html

Play Date: 05/10/2003
PRAA (Portfolio Recovery--$26.99; +0.94; no options): Accounts receivables collections
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/praa.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Making the nice volume move in the face of the market. Closed off its high (27.55), but still a solid move. Looking at positions on a further move on continued volume.
Volume: 254.598K Avg Volume: 124.636K
BUY POINT: New: $27.28 (orig. $26.45) Volume=185K Target=$31.75 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/praa.html

Play Date: 05/07/2003
PWN (Cash America--$11.69; +0.39; no options): Pawn shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PWN ignored the market Monday, surging higher on rising, above average volume. It hit 11.96 on the high but then pulled back toward the close. That pullback is what we used to enter. It is still showing good accumulation and excellent money flow. It is still a buy on a further move up on volume.
Volume: 157.5K Avg Volume: 80.818K
BUY POINT: New: 11.78 (orig. $11.66 Volume=117K Target=$13.75 Stop=$11.03
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pwn.html

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS

We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.

All current pre-announcements:
AVP: Held up well.
BBBY: Sold through the 18 day MVA on rising volume.
BCR: Modest selling.
CECO: Exited with a trailing stop and a nice gain. We will look for the next entry point now.
EBAY: Testing the 10 day MVA.
MME: Held up well.
RARE: Still struggling.

WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING

Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop

ADPT 05/19 Test 18 7.24 -0.21 7.65 9.21 653K 825K 7.11
New.

ADSK 03/25 Cup hdl 15.93 -0.87 16.3 19.45 1.5M 1.8M 16.15
Exited. Gapped higher but then turned and broke the 18 day.
held the 50 day on the low, but we exited earlier on
the higher volume.

ADTN 04/15 Cup hdl 42.07 -1.72 40.88 46.95 945K 1.2M 42.75
Exited. Started thru the 18 day MVA so took the rest of the
$ off the table with a trailing stop.

AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 10.71 -0.1 10.95 13.22 254K 417K 10.25
Current.

ALGN 04/29 Test 50 7.98 -0.45 7.45 9.25 244K 378K 7.84
Current.

ALTR 04/15 Rv H&S 16.9 -0.71 15.75 18.81 8.3M 12M 16.62
Current.

AMAT 04/18 BO 13.75 -0.56 15.6 19 25M 32M 14.19
Current.

AMT 04/30 Test 50 8.3 +0.64 6.84 8.35 3.6M 2.1M 7.08
Current.

APOL 04/12 A Wedge 53.35 -1.97 52.75 59 2.3M 2.7M 54.96
Current.

APOL 02/18 A Wedge 53.35 -1.97 46.25 52.88 2.3M 22M 54.96
Current.

ASCL 05/07 FlyPlat 3.4 -0.29 4.05 4.96 1.8M 1.7M 3.77
Buy Not Hit.

AVP 03/29 BO 57.18 -0.74 57.58 65.88 692K 1.7M 56.74
Current.

BBBY 04/26 Test 18 38.36 -1.63 39.12 46.55 3.5M 4M 39.33
Current.

BCR 05/10 A Wedge 65.99 -1.23 64.4 73.75 604K 477K 64.92
Current.

BPOP 04/03 Cup hdl 38.37 -0.5 35.25 40.45 326K 200K 37.57
Current.

BSC 05/10 BO 68.69 -2.03 70.85 80.65 962K 1.9M 68.35
Current.

CAH 04/09 Put 56.78 -1.9 55.96 52 4.1M 3.5M 54.74
Current.

CECO 02/15 Cup hdl 58.7 -1.83 52.05 58.55 825K 1.4M 59.04
Exited. Moved thru 18 day MVA on rising volume so took the
rest of the gain & will look for a lower entry point.

CEDC 05/08 Test BO 31.3 -1.4 31.78 36.55 163K 186K 30.65
Current.

CELG 05/14 A Wedge 29.99 -1.49 30.98 37.12 2.4M 1.8M 29.04
Current.

CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6 -0.05 6.28 7.58 270K 250K 5.84
Buy Not Issued.

CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 19.35 -1.16 14.12 17.25 3M 5.3M 18.56
Current.

CY 05/17 Test 18 9.3 -0.5 10.06 12.12 1.5M 2.3M 9.36
Buy Not Hit.

CZN 04/24 Cup hdl 12.05 -0.25 11.34 13.57 911K 156K 11.65
Current.

DCTM 05/01 Cup hdl 17.49 -1.38 19.75 24 1.7M 1.8M 18.32
Current.

DRIV 05/08 Test BO 17.24 -0.96 17.62 20.95 978K 1.4M 16.96
Current.

DSPG 04/26 Test BO 21.4 -2.27 21.1 25.1 915K 300K 22.04
Exited.

DSPG 04/09 Test BO 21.4 -2.27 19.35 23 915K 308K 22.04
Exited. Knifed through the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Took
the rest of the $ off the table with a trailing stop.

DVA 05/17 Cup hdl 23.92 -0.3 24.65 29.55 532K 573K 23.45
Buy Not Hit.

EBAY 03/08 BO 96.6 -2.59 80.08 92 6.4M 8M 94.05
Current.

ELAB 03/06 Cup hdl 30.7 -0.94 24.06 28.88 133K 325K 30.38
Current.

ERES 04/30 PreSplt 33.98 +0.42 30.15 35.15 511K 496K 31.28
Current.

ERES 01/30 Cup hdl 33.98 +0.42 21.55 28.55 511K 436K 31.28
Current.

FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 13.27 -0.5 10.9 13.15 4.5M 4.4M 12.34
Current.

FDX 03/24 Cup hdl 60.78 -1.72 57.85 66 1.5M 2.2M 60.71
Current.

FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 15.79 -0.89 15.3 18.32 677K 750K 15.55
Current.

FLIR 05/08 PreSplt 50.75 -1.83 51.7 58.75 254K 401K 51.25
Current.

GDW 05/01 Cup hdl 76.32 -0.73 77.25 86.75 814K 900K 75.45
Buy Not Issued.

GENZ 05/03 Test BO 41.69 -1.47 41.32 49.88 6.9M 4.9M 40
Buy Not Issued.

GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 36.29 -0.38 26.5 30.75 342K 521K 34.05
Current.

GSPN 04/29 Cup hdl 6.43 -0.53 6.39 8.25 2.7M 2.1M 6.44
Current.

HAR 05/13 Test BO 69.81 -0.69 70.25 80.45 271K 619K 68.12
Current.

HITK 03/22 Cup hdl 35.4 -1.24 19.35 28.75 334K 235K 34.94

IART 04/24 FlyPlat 25.23 -0.46 26.25 32 440K 485K 25.45
Fell thru 18 day MVA on rising volume. May have been
a shakeout from the flying plateau, but did not want
to hang around given the stronger trade.

IMN 04/29 Put 33.2 -0.33 33.94 30 552K 450K 35.04
Buy Not Issued.

JPM 04/01 Test BO 30.42 -0.83 24.96 28.55 8.3M 1.2M 29.65
Current.

KOSP 05/13 Test BO 22.06 -1.03 22.94 27.48 558K 400K 21.33
Buy Not Issued.

KSWS 04/21 FlyPlat 28.75 -0.85 30.66 35.75 311K 304K 29.35

LCI 05/06 Cup hdl 16.45 -0.42 17.22 20.51 177K 187K 15.96
Current.

LIZ 04/14 Cup hdl 32.69 -0.96 32.65 27.45 872K 883K 33.05
Current.

LLTC 03/20 Cup hdl 33.19 -2.06 34.97 40.48 8M 7M 34.55
Exited. Broke the 50 day MVA on rising volume.

LM 05/06 Cup hdl 57.24 -1.35 58.5 67.78 422K 610K 57.04
Current.

MED 04/28 Cup hdl 9.2 -0.21 8.7 10.42 188K 145K 8.09
Current.

MER 04/28 Cup hdl 40.6 -1.77 41.55 47.45 5.6M 7.5M 41.39
Exited. Broke thru the 18 day MVA. Volume was lower, but this
was a case where the price move it was making outweighed
the volume consideration.

MME 04/30 BO 46.55 -0.25 45.65 54.45 552K 634K 44.65
Current.

MRGE 04/24 Rv H&S 9.3 -0.93 8.06 10.45 163K 65K 9.05
Current.

MUSE 05/03 Test 18 7.84 -0.61 7.75 9.35 3.1M 2M 7.48
Current.

MVL 03/03 BO 20.5 -0.08 11.82 21 1.5M 675K 18.55
Current.

NVDA 05/08 Cup hdl 19.89 -1.37 17.55 23.55 10M 11M 18.75
Buy Not Issued.

POWI 05/10 Flat 23.51 -1.14 24.85 29.75 524K 970K 23.45
Current.

PRAA 05/10 Test BO 26.99 +0.94 26.45 31.75 255K 185K 25.25
Buy Not Issued.

PRX 05/19 Put 38.45 -1.05 38.18 35 478K 700K 39.75
New.

PWN 05/07 BO 11.69 +0.39 11.66 13.94 158K 117K 11.03
Current. Bucked the trend with a nice volume break higher.

QCOM 04/16 Put 30.27 -0.03 32.56 29 18M 16M 30.28

QLGC 05/17 Test BO 44.34 -1.87 46.78 54 4.8M 8M 44.65
Buy Not Hit.

QLGC 03/15 Test BO 44.34 -1.87 38.85 45 4.8M 11M 44.24
Current.

QLGC 11/07 Test BO 44.34 -1.87 41.4 50 4.8M 25M 44.24

RECN 05/03 Cup hdl 20.29 -1.01 23.74 28.25 137K 195K 21.96
Buy Not Hit.

RNR 05/17 Test BO 45.37 -0.53 46.25 53.25 287K 500K 44.88
Buy Not Hit.

SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 14.35 -0.7 12.22 16 707K 696K 13.94
Current.

SEPR 04/12 Test BO 19.58 -1.04 17.1 21 2.1M 1.8M 19.41
Current.

SFNT 05/12 Cup hdl 24.76 -2.67 28.5 32.75 673K 394K 26.5
Current.

SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 7.99 -0.26 7.58 9.55 180K 125K 7.35
Buy Not Issued.

SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 22 -0.83 10.55 21.45 2.3M 800K 19.98
Current.

SPLS 03/31 Test 50 19.74 -0.24 20.3 23.55 4M 5M 19.68
Current.

THOR 04/05 Test BO 12.72 -0.76 13.5 16.26 647K 721K 12.98
Exited. Looked ready to move off the 10 day MVA, but the market
ruled and pushed ith thru the 18 day.

TLB 05/17 Put 26.01 -0.5 26.38 23 231K 375K 27.45
Buy Not Issued. Tanked early but then rallied back. We probably should
have started with a partial position, but the action
suggested a bounce up to test the 50 day. We will be
looking for that now, obviously, to enter new positions.

TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 42.21 -1.24 43.75 52 1.3M 603K 42.85
Current.

TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 42.21 -1.24 38.6 44.38 1.3M 577K 42.85
Current.

UCBH 03/24 Cup 25.05 -0.73 22.03 24.75 485K 200K 25.55

UNH 05/10 PreSplt 94.3 -1.11 94.35 100 2.1M 2M 91.88
Current.

UOPX 05/03 BO 43.74 -1.34 46.68 56 233K 370K 43.41
Buy Not Issued.

UVN 05/17 Cup hdl 28.05 -1.49 30.65 35.55 2.4M 2.4M 28.84
Buy Not Hit.

VRTY 05/03 BO 18 -0.85 18.7 22.25 553K 938K 17.55
Current.

VTAL 04/23 Cup hdl 14.49 -1.91 14.25 17.12 513K 150K 15
Exited. Used a trailing stop as VTAL broke the 10 and 18 day
on a volume surge.

WPI 05/05 Flat 35.93 -0.87 31.62 38 1.3M 1.9M 34.05
Current.

XLNX 03/20 Test BO 27.03 -1.38 28.05 34.55 7.5M 14M 27.64
Exited. Another stock falling thru the 18 day MVA & we cut
it off before it fell further.

ZQK 05/01 PreSplt 15.83 -0.83 16.88 18.93 727K 350K 16.45
Exited. Knifed thru 18 day on some rising volume so we exited.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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