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yahoo stock, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
SUBSCRIBER'S CHOICE:
KEI (Keithley Instr--$24.81; 0.00; optionable (KEI): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kei.html
STATUS: Formerly a portfolio stock, KEI has come up from an April low of 12.18 to cross back over its 50 day MVA (24.21), a move made on strong volume 5 days ago. The stock pulled back from the breakout high of 27.94 over the last 2 days, and is holding above that major support on low volume (down to 412,500 Tuesday; avg. is 557,090). Look for a move up from here in a market rally. Target on a move over 28: $31-32.
BUY POINT: 28.07, on volume of 557,000 or better. Stop loss: 27.57-27.82.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (KEI GE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/kei.html
Best Plays: PHM, on the report last week, broke out today.
Best Plays:
1) IXX: Up on stronger volume after testing the breakout.
2) WLSN: Making a move from the lateral consolidation.
3) ACS: Looking strong.
4) ADBE: At support on low volume.
5) SEBL: Ditto.
6) EXTR: A doji at support on low volume.
7) GMST: Ditto.
8) Puts: CHKP
Updates:
ONIS (Oni Sys--$34.08; -3.74; optionable (EUI): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/onis.html
STATUS: The stock pulled back the last 2 days from the March 18 breakout high of 40.95, when it gapped up over the 50 day MVA (31.89) on strong volume. Volume is slightly down from that of Monday (5.8 million; avg. 5.4 million), the stock closing right on support (10 day MVA, 33.64). We are looking for a hold here, but if the close near the low on near average volume breaks the stock below the moving average, the 50 day MVA can provide firm ground for a move back up. Target on a break over 41: $45-47.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here, or the 50 day MVA (31.89) on above average volume. Stop loss: 31.39-31.64. Breakout: 41.08, on volume of 7 million or better. Stop loss: 40.58-40.83.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (EUI GZ). Breakout: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (EUI GG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/onis.html
IXX (Ivex Packaging--$14.98; +0.33; no options): Consumer Non-durables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ixx.html
STATUS: Ready to move back up after testing its breakout from the ascending wedge pattern (the stock broke out after our March 13 coverage). Volume was stronger at 102,100 (avg. 65,136) on a move up from support (10 day MVA at 14.49); looking for a move over the breakout high of 15.15. Target: $17-18.
BUY POINT: 15.28, on volume of 139,000 or better. Stop loss: 14.78-15.03.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ixx.html
WLSN (Wilsons--$19.22; +0.32; no options): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlsn.html
STATUS: Breaking out of the tight lateral consolidation covered on the weekend report. Volume climbed to 135,100 (avg. 110,454). Looking for a continued move up as volume expands. The pattern formed in the handle of the stock's 8-month cup base. Target: $22-23.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued rising volume. Stop loss: 18.72-18.97. Breakout over the handle high: 20.13 on volume of 166,000 or better. Stop loss: 19.63-19.88.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wlsn.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Some of the new leaders have fallen under the pressure of the bear market and can no longer be considered top picks for such investments (ACS, LLL, NATI, ESRX). We continue to look to stocks like CPN and SGR (and are adding NVDA) as the new leaders, as they are holding up well. With this in mind, we must reiterate that while we are looking for any of these stocks to once again yield long-term investments when the markets turns, for now the plays for moves up in such stocks should be considered largely short-term. We must focus on the stocks that are performing best in a down market as they tend to help lead when the market turns back up.
New Leaders: CPN, SGR, ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS, NVDA, BRKS
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
ACS (Affiliated Computer Svc--$68.92; +3.93; optionable (ACS): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: Looked at ACS on the weekend report, and Monday the stock held at Friday's level at support, the 18 day MVA (65.48). The stock delivered a strong move today on the heels of a J.P. Morgan upgrade, breaking out to a new closing high on strong volume (918,600; avg. 546,590). The stock remains a buy on this move out of a recent wedging-type pattern. Target: $75-78.
BUY POINT: A buy up to 71.54 on the breakout. Stop loss: 68.42-68.67.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $65 calls to buy (ACS GM).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/acs.html
Previous Leaders:
ADBE (Adobe--$42.73; -0.25; optionable (AEQ): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
STATUS: After pulling back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume Monday, the stock drooped just lower, showing a doji at that support (42.32). Volume today, however, was higher at 3.5 million (avg. 6.2 million), but that still is below average, so the stock has a chance to hold the support here. On a break of that level, potential support is in the 41.25 range (a lateral consolidation from earlier this month), or at the 18 day MVA (40.04.
Initial target on a move back up: $49 (near the April high). Above that, $54-56.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: on a move back up from here on stronger volume. Stop loss: 42.23-42.48.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (AEQ GG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/adbe.html
SEBL (Siebel--$40.15; -1.60; optionable (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: Still pulling back with the market and other techs, and one of the few today showing lower volume at the end of the day (17 million; avg. 18 million). Showing a doji right on top of its 50 day MVA (40.03), we continue to look for the stock to move up from the support in a rally. We want SEBL to hold at the 50 day MVA. The 10 day MVA is at 38.26; 18 day MVA at 35.92. Target on a move over the previous high of 47.80: $53-55.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on rising volume. Stop loss: 39.65-39.90.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $35 calls to buy (SGW HG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sebl.html
EXTR (Extreme Netwks--$24.81; -0.37; optionable (EUT): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/extr.html
STATUS: Still holding at support (50 day MVA, 24.30) on below average volume that was up slightly to 4.5 million (avg. 5.6 million). The tight doji on the continued pullback suggests a move back up, so in a rally we have our sights on a move back over 30, where the stock has potential resistance. Target over 30: $33-35.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on stronger volume. Stop loss: 24.31-24.56.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $20 calls to buy (EUT FD). Next month out on options is September.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/extr.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have added some new stocks to this portfolio: LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. We like the patterns and their earnings numbers, and they are holding up in this market. The currently existing members (EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST) are on a watchlist we will continue to monitor for recovery when the market finally emerges from the bear market.
GMST (Gemstar-TV Guide--$38.87; +0.41; optionable (QLF): Electr. Equip
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gmst.html
STATUS: The stock, after breaking out over its 50 day MVA Friday on stronger volume, pulled back to support of the 50 day MVA (37.85) over the last 2 days. Volume dropped back to 3.75 million (avg. 4.4 million) and the stock showed a doji, up from the low of 37.95. Looking for a move back from the support in a rally, for a move over the breakout high (41.64). That will get the stock partly over a chunk of overhead supply from December and March. Target on that move: $46-48. GMST is coming up off the April low of 20.25, the low in the 7-month base. Money flow is off the floor and climbing since the first of the month.
BUY POINT: 41.77, on volume of 5 million or better. Stop loss: 41.27-41.52.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $35 calls to buy (QLF HG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gmst.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
A potential put play:
CHKP (Check Point--$62.00; -10.39; optionable (KEQ): Security Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chkp.html
STATUS: Beat estimates and revenues increased 86%, but that wasn't good enough for analysts, and the stock sold off on strong volume (37 million; avg. 11.8 million) and broke support at the 18 day MVA (63.04). If the stock takes out 60, it is a potential put play down to 50-51.
BUY POINT: Below 60 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: May $75 puts to buy (KEQ QO).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chkp.html
Other Puts:
QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$44.30; -0.85; optionable (QQQ):
STATUS: Showing a doji after breaking below the 50 day MVA (46.20) on stronger, above average volume (89 million; avg. 79 million). The low tested support at the 10 day MVA (43.69). On a break below the 18 day MVA at 42.64 in market selling, we will look at buying puts on a move down to 37-38.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Down from here on continued rising volume in market selling. Safer: Below 42 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: June $51 puts to buy (QQQ RY).
DJX (1/100 Dj Indu--$104.54; -0.78; optionable (DJV):
STATUS: Dropped lower on rising volume, after crossing below the 200 day MVA (106.16) Friday. The high tapped resistance at the moving average; we are looking for a retest then move back down on selling for a potential downside play.
BUY POINT: On a move back down from the 106 range (after a retest), on selling.
POSITION: June $112 puts to buy (DJV RH).
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
top stock pick
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