|
|
top stock pick, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers.
Good movers Tuesday: ERES; MME
NEW PLAYS:
See Pre-Announcement section for new pre-announcement plays
Downside:
Play Date: 05/20/2003
MAT (Mattel--$21.56; -0.61; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mat.html
STATUS: Put. MVL double topped in April then May, making the second top on below average volume. That is always a problem: there were not enough buyers as it came back up to try for a new high. It is now paying the price, falling through the 50 day MVA (21.91) Tuesday on high volume. Money flow has turned down and is leading the stock lower.
Volume: 2.718M Avg Volume: 2.115M
BUY POINT: $21.42 Volume=2.5M Target=$19.55 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: MAT SX - July $22.50p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mat.html
New Post-Split:
Play Date: 05/20/2003
ODSY (Odyssey Healthcare--$29.18; -0.12; optionable): Long-term health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odsy.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ODSY broke out of a 6-month flat base in late April, rallied to 30 on solid volume, and is now pulling back again to test the breakout. Tuesday it tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (28.70) and bounced back to form a nice, tight doji. Volume has been below average, on the test, just as it should be. Accumulation is positive and money flow is solid. Looking for a stronger volume run up from here.
Volume: 130.463K Avg Volume: 387.863K
BUY POINT: $29.42 Volume=400K Target=$34.45 Stop=$27.36
POSITION: UPE JF - Oct. $30c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/odsy.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 05/19/2003
ADPT (Adaptec--$7.17; -0.07; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adpt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. A second day at the 18 day MVA, showing a tighter doji on continued below average volume. Accumulation in its 4.5 month base is excellent at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is excellent. Now just looking for a move up on volume.
Volume: 486.609K Avg Volume: 661.863K
BUY POINT: $7.65 Volume=825K Target=$9.21 Stop=$7.11
POSITION: APQ JU - Oct. $7.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adpt.html
Play Date: 05/13/2003
AGEN (Antigenics--$10.6; -0.11; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agen.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong breakout last week, AGEN got caught in some of the market selling and has fallen back to the 10 day MVA, closing at that point. It tapped the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday low (10.18) and then rallied back on rising, above average volume. Excellent money flow and accumulation, and off of this tight doji we are looking for a strong rebound.
Volume: 363.054K Avg Volume: 275.09K
BUY POINT: $10.95 Volume=417K Target=$13.22 Stop=$10.25
POSITION: QHL IB - Sept. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agen.html
Play Date: 04/22/2003
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$6.13; +0.13; no options): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
STATUS: Triangle. Still in the lateral move over the 18 day MVA (5.95), CNQR looks to be crouching for the breakout still. Excellent money flow and solid accumulation. Now we just wait for the upside breakout.
Volume: 123.615K Avg Volume: 215.136K
BUY POINT: $6.28 (orig. $6.12) Volume=250K Target=$7.58 Stop=$5.84
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cnqr.html
Play Date: 05/17/2003
DVA (Davita--$23.83; -0.09; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the 6-month base with solid 6 to 4 accumulation. Very stable, steady handle. Just being patient and letting it breakout.
Volume: 160K Avg Volume: 336.545K
BUY POINT: $24.65 Volume=573K Target=$29.55 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: DVA JE - Oct. $25c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Play Date: 03/24/2003
FDX (Federal Express--$61; +0.22; optionable): Air delivery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a nice surge in mid-April, FDX has rallied up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume and is now testing the 18 day MVA in its first real pullback. Volume has been lower on the turn back down. Now we are looking for FDX to hold and rally again on rising volume. Volume started creeping up Tuesday. There is more than one entry point for any stock, and this looks like the next entry.
Volume: 1.574M Avg Volume: 1.765M
BUY POINT: New: 61.55 (orig. $57.85) Volume=2.2M Target=$66 Stop=$60.71
POSITION: FDX GK - July $55c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
Play Date: 04/23/2003
FFIV (F5 Networks--$15.34; -0.45; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FFIV is testing the move higher, pulling back to the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. It has been a fairly precipitous plunge, but with strong money flow and accumulation, we expect FFIV to bounce up off of this point. Another entry point.
Volume: 329.441K Avg Volume: 523.272K
BUY POINT: New: $15.75 (orig. $15.30) Volume=750K Target=$18.32 Stop=$15.55
POSITION: FLK GC - July $15c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
Play Date: 04/28/2003
MED (Medifast--$9.4; +0.2; no options): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/med.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MED is in a nice lateral move over the 10 day MVA, tapping that level again on the Tuesday low (8.95) and rebounding yet again. Typically when stocks move laterally after a strong breakout such as MED's, they wait for the 10 day MVA to catch up to them and then jump higher. We are looking for that action here.
Volume: 155.9K Avg Volume: 138.454K
BUY POINT: New: $9.62 (orig. $8.70) Volume=145K Target=$10.42 Stop=$8.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/med.html
Play Date: 04/26/2003
SCSS (Select Comfort--$14.51; +0.16; optionable): Air beds
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scss.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SCSS is making the second test of its April breakout, holding the 10 day MVA on the Tuesday low (14.37), showing a tight doji as it did. SCSS is a retailer with legs, and this looks like the next entry point.
Volume: 633.237K Avg Volume: 423.136K
BUY POINT: New: $14.88 (orig. $12.22) Volume=696K Target=$16 Stop=$13.94
POSITION: QSL IB - Sept. $10c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scss.html
Play Date: 05/03/2003
VRTY (Verity--$18.75; +0.75; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrty.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the strong surge early in the month VRTY has moved laterally the rest of the month thus far. Volume has been mostly below average as it moves to consolidate that breakout. Money flow is excellent and we are looking for VRTY to make the next lieg higher.
Volume: 487.427K Avg Volume: 575.5K
BUY POINT: New: $19.08 (orig. $18.70) Volume=938K Target=$22.25 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: YQV IW - Sept. $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrty.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/17/2003
TLB (Talbots--$26.71; +0.7; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlb.html
STATUS: Put. TLB smashed the 50 day MVA at 27 Friday, fell further Monday, and then rebounded Tuesday. On the Tuesday high it tapped the 50 day and then faded back. Volume was higher, moving up to average; we would prefer seeing it fall. Volume was not huge on the bounce, so we will look at it turn over and start selling again on rising volume.
Volume: 324.6K Avg Volume: 320.772K
BUY POINT: $26.38 Volume=375K Target=$23 Stop=$27.45
POSITION: TLB TF - Aug. $30p (-76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tlb.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
All current pre-announcements:
AVP
BBBY: Struggling over the 50 day MVA.
BCR
CECO: Exited with a trailing stop Monday and waiting for the next entry point after a pullback.
EBAY: Sold Monday but was already regrouping Tuesday.
HAR
MME: Another great volume move higher!
New Pre-Announcement plays:
Play Date: 04/12/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$53.24; -0.11; options): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 6-23-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed the time of the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $34.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. APOL is volatile, but after a strong 3-month move up the short term MVA it is now testing that move, tapping toward the 50 day on the Tuesday low (52.71) and rebounding to recover some losses. After strong moves up the short term MVA after breakouts a stock will test the 50 day. If buyers come back in (institutions use the 50 day to add to positions) and the stock jumps higher, that is a great entry point. That is what we are looking for here.
Volume: 1.547M Avg Volume: 1.833M
BUY POINT: New: $54.15 (orig. $52.75) Volume=2.7M Target=$59 Stop=$54.96
POSITION: OAQ HJ - Aug. $50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 05/20/2003
LXK (Lexmark Intl.--$70.39; -0.21; optionable): Printers. Forecast to announce a split on 7-21-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the day for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 2 for 1 split on 4-29-99 at a stock price of $110. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-30-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lxk.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. After the breakout from its second base the past year, LXK raced up over 75 and then pulled back to test the 50 day MVA (69.73). It is showing a nice doji on that level as it holds the breakout from its 4.5 month cup with handle base that preceded this run. A 50 day MVA test is a good place to pick up strong stocks if we see strong volume come in on the move back up. We are looking at aggressive positions if the volume comes in. The next entry point is a move over the short term MVA at 72.70.
Volume: 1.501M Avg Volume: 1.667M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $70.85. Next: 72.75 Volume=1.8M Target=$79 Stop=$68.55
POSITION: LXK JN - Oct. $70c (56 delta) or LXK GN - July $70c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lxk.html
Continued Pre-Announcements:
Play Date: 03/29/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$57.74; +0.56; optionable): Makeup, etc. No announcement with shareholder meeting on 5-1. Researching the next date, most likely in July with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout from cup w/handle. Same story, another session. AVP is working laterally after the breakout, holding at the 18 day MVA (57.49) on mostly below average volume. This is not bad action as AVP forms a flat base after its cup withy handle breakout. That new base is showing 3 to 1 accumulation. Volume started edging higher Tuesday, potentially signaling that AVP will try to move up and out of the pattern.
Volume: 1.174M Avg Volume: 1.398M
BUY POINT: New: $58.72 (orig. $57.58) Volume=1.7M Target=$65.88 Stop=$56.74
POSITION: AVP GK - July $55c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 04/26/2003
BBBY (Bed, Bath & Beyond--$38.2; -0.16; optionable): Home furnishings. Forecast to announce a split in July and we are working on pinpointing a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
BACKGROUND: BBBY last announced a 2:1 split in July 2000 at a price of $36.
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Beyond just a test, BBBY has dropped close to the 50 day MVA (37.88) though still on below average volume. After a strong move up the short term MVA following its breakout, BBBY has made the test of the 50 day MVA a bit earlier than we wanted, but the action is normal for a stock trending higher after a breakout: 4 to 5 bounces up the short term MVA and then a test lower. That makes these periodic tests a good entry point if the stock starts back up on a strong volume surge.
Volume: 2.751M Avg Volume: 3.281M
BUY POINT: New: 38.85 on volume (orig. $39.12) Volume=4M Target=$46.55 Stop=$39.33
POSITION: BHQ HU - Aug. $37.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bbby.html
Play Date: 05/10/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$65.49; -0.5; optionable): Medical instruments. Forecast to announce a split in July with earnings.
BACKGROUND: BCR has not announced a split since the dark ages, but it is now ready for an all-time high.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. BCR has been caught up in the selling the past two days but it has not given back much of the move. Indeed Tuesday it tested just below the 10 day MVA on the low (64.71) and rebounded to hold over that level as volume surged. It was a very strong breakout on the back of strong 8 to 3 accumulation. This looks as if it is an entry point for new positions.
Volume: 676K Avg Volume: 343.863K
BUY POINT: New: $66.05 (orig. $64.40) Volume=477K Target=$73.75 Stop=$64.92
POSITION: BCR JM - Oct. $65c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 05/13/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$68.8; -1.01; optionable): Consumer electronics. Forecast to announce a split in early August. A bit early on the report, but is testing a strong move.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in August 2000 at a price of $65. This is the first time HAR has been back at that level.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After Friday's stronger volume edge higher HAR was hit with the market selling. Tuesday it tapped the 18 day MVA on the low (67.90), held, and then recouped some of the losses. Looking for the 18 day to hold and for HAR to use the strong money flow and 6 to 3 accumulation to boost it back up. Need to see strong volume on the move back up.
Volume: 345.6K Avg Volume: 424.636K
BUY POINT: New: 70.94 Volume=619K Target=$80.25 Stop=$68.12
POSITION: HAR JN - Oct. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/08/2003
FLIR (Flir Systems--$52.07; +1.32; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments. Splits 2:1 on 5-30-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FLIR continues to move laterally over the 18 day MVA (51.32) on mostly below average volume. Tuesday FLIR sported a good point move in a recovery. Now we are looking for some more volume to push it through the buy point.
Volume: 237.064K Avg Volume: 263.318K
BUY POINT: New: $52.88 (new $51.70) Volume=401K Target=$58.75 Stop=$51.25
POSITION: FFQ GJ - July $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
End part 2 of 3
|
top stock pick
stock split
|
