|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: MME
Tuesday Plays:
ISPH: Gapped low and recovered some ground. We will see if it can recover.
LLTC: Started down on volume, rebounded some, but could not clear the 50 day MVA.
PLB: Doji on lower volume. May test and then fall.
Best Plays:
1) MAT: Breaking down on strong volume.
2) AGEN: Nice test of the breakout.
3) Continuing: AMZN looks ready again. BRCM has made a decent test. SCSS looks solid. FFIV has made the test. VSTA is in an excellent test.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/20/2003
TEK (Tektronix--$19.45; +0.02; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tek.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TEK broke from a 3.5 month cup base in April and has rallied up the short term MVA since. After a strong move late last week on strong volume, TEK has fallen back in this week's selling on lower, below average volume. Tuesday it held the 10 day MVA, showing a nice tight doji. Accumulation in the base is solid at 8 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume and money flow is excellent. This looks a lot like a test related to the market selling, and on solid volume move higher we will look to enter.
Volume: 321K Avg Volume: 341.5K
BUY POINT: $20.22 Volume=500K Target=$24.35 Stop=$19.05
POSITION: TEK JD - Oct. $20c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tek.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/20/2003
MAT (Mattel--$21.56; -0.61; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mat.html
STATUS: Put. MVL double topped in April then May, making the second top on below average volume. That is always a problem: there were not enough buyers as it came back up to try for a new high. It is now paying the price, falling through the 50 day MVA (21.91) Tuesday on high volume. Money flow has turned down and is leading the stock lower.
Volume: 2.718M Avg Volume: 2.115M
BUY POINT: $21.42 Volume=2.5M Target=$19.55 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: MAT SX - July $22.50p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mat.html
Continuing plays that look good:
Play Date: 05/13/2003
AGEN (Antigenics--$10.6; -0.11; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agen.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong breakout last week, AGEN got caught in some of the market selling and has fallen back to the 10 day MVA, closing at that point. It tapped the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday low (10.18) and then rallied back on rising, above average volume. Excellent money flow and accumulation, and off of this tight doji we are looking for a strong rebound.
Volume: 363.054K Avg Volume: 275.09K
BUY POINT: $10.95 Volume=417K Target=$13.22 Stop=$10.25
POSITION: QHL IB - Sept. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/agen.html
Play Date: 04/23/2003
FFIV (F5 Networks--$15.34; -0.45; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FFIV is testing the move higher, pulling back to the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. It has been a fairly precipitous plunge, but with strong money flow and accumulation, we expect FFIV to bounce up off of this point. Another entry point.
Volume: 329.441K Avg Volume: 523.272K
BUY POINT: New: $15.75 (orig. $15.30) Volume=750K Target=$18.32 Stop=$15.55
POSITION: FLK GC - July $15c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ffiv.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
AMZN 05/03 BO 31.48 -0.08 30.3 35.45 8.1M 12M 30.08
Current. Could be ready here, holding the 10 day MVA with a very nice, tight doji.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 20.31 +0.31 19.2 22.94 14M 15M 19.06
Current. Held the 10 day MVA after a pretty heavy session lower Monday.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 9.53 -0.28 9.64 11.65 766K 521K 8.95
Current. Struggled a bit Tuesday, but we are sticking with it.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 4.45 +0.06 4.45 5.45 536K 244K 4.21
Current. Gapped higher but then gave back all of the move.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 10.6 -0.11 10.95 13.22 363K 417K 10.25
Current. Nice test.
ALTR 04/15 Rv H&S 16.75 -0.15 15.75 18.81 5.9M 12M 16.62
Exited. Sold below the 18 day MVA and we exited with a trailing
stop but it rallied on the close to hold the 18 day MVA.
AMZN 05/03 BO 31.48 -0.08 30.3 35.45 8.1M 12M 30.08
Current. Could be ready here, holding the 10 day MVA with a very nice, tight doji.
ASCL 05/07 FlyPlat 3.59 +0.19 4.05 4.96 889K 1.7M 3.77
Buy Not Hit.
BCE 04/05 Cup 20.83 +0.35 19.9 23.75 249K 550K 20.09
Current. Gapped higher though not a lot of volume.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 12.15 -0.16 7.2 13.45 599K 300K 11.78
Current. Testing back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume as it continues the downtrend.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 20.31 +0.31 19.2 22.94 14M 15M 19.06
Current. Held the 10 day MVA after a pretty heavy session lower Monday.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 38.52 +0.29 40.54 47.55 13M 23M 38.45
Buy Not Issued.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 29.6 -0.39 30.98 37.12 1.7M 1.8M 29.04
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on lower volume as CELG tests the short term MVA as have most stocks.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.13 +0.13 6.28 7.58 124K 250K 5.84
Buy Not Issued. Still in the very nice lateral pattern.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 32.6 +0.13 32 38 528K 1.3M 31.48
Current. Nice lateral, lower volume move over the 10 day MVA.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 19.6 +0.25 14.12 17.25 3.3M 5.3M 18.56
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA, but it has double topped this month on lower volume. Needs to hold the 18 day MVA.
CVC 05/17 Test 50 20.78 -0.44 22.35 26.84 2.2M 3M 20.79
Buy Not Hit.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 9.33 +0.16 9.04 11.35 1.1M 1.9M 9.11
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on lower volume.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 28.03 +0.28 23.81 28.42 212K 225K 28.35
Current. Tried to move back over the 18 day MVA but failed. Still holding on fairly well.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 28.03 +0.28 22.75 27.35 212K 225K 28.35
Current.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 17.34 +0.1 17.62 20.95 974K 1.4M 16.96
Current. Has tested back to the 18 day MVA, showing a doji. May be ready to start the next move.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 97.75 +1.15 69.45 92 6.3M 12M 94.92
Current. Started right back up after a one-day test.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 97.75 +1.15 62.45 92 6.3M 12M 94.92
Current.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 13.33 +0.06 10.9 13.15 2.5M 4.4M 12.34
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA on the low and recouped the loss.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 15.34 -0.45 15.3 18.32 329K 750K 15.55
Current. Nice test.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 9.8 +0.14 9.2 10.96 178K 195K 9.11
Current. Showing a doji over the 10 day MVA in a nice test.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 43.75 -2.21 22.34 37.45 1.3M 198K 44.44
Current. Broke the 18 day MVA on volume. We have already taken some gain on this one and after such a strong move a 50 day MVA test at 40 is likely. We are willing to ride some stock to that point and let it keep working for us. When that is over we will add to positions on the next bounce.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 15.47 -0.2 14.88 17.88 597K 1.2M 15.55
Current. Moved further below the 18 day MVA, but the low volume kept us in for another session.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 15.47 -0.2 14.65 17 597K 1.2M 15.35
Current.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 85.77 -0.68 88.62 100 7.3M 14M 86.85
Current. Rallied back from the session lows so we stayed in the play.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 35.17 -0.13 0 0 304K 375K 36
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 15.47 -0.18 11.6 15.32 268K 293K 14.18
Current. Nice low volume test of the 10 day MVA.
ISPH 05/19 Flat 14.78 -1.37 16.28 19.55 5.6M 469K 15.05
Buy Not Hit. Not doing it as it gapped lower and never came close to the buy.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 12.59 -0.05 10.6 13.42 11M 17M 11.94
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA nicely on a lower volume test.
LLTC 05/19 Put 33.16 -0.03 32.95 28.88 9.3M 7.5M 34.88
Current. Fell but recovered much of the loss though could not recover the 50 day MVA.
MAT 05/20 Put 21.56 -0.61 21.42 19.55 2.7M 2.5M 22.55
New.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 20.72 -0.78 21.25 25.48 1.3M 825K 20.45
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on the close after testing lower and then rallying back on stronger volume.
MME 04/30 BO 47.82 +1.27 45.65 54.45 855K 634K 44.65
Current. Another nice blast higher on volume.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.63 -0.17 26.62 30 53M 57M 25.55
NTES 04/01 Cup 25.35 -1.55 17 27 2.2M 1M 25.38
Current. Down to the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Needs to hold here.
NVDA 05/08 Cup hdl 20.2 +0.31 17.55 23.55 7.4M 11M 18.75
Buy Not Issued.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 28.57 -1.03 19.05 31 992K 1.2M 28.25
Current. Sold down to tap the 18 day MVA on the low and recovered some of the loss. Volume remained low, a positive.
PLB 05/19 Put 41.98 +0.26 41.62 39.12 136K 275K 42.88
Buy Not Issued. Sold but bounced back. May want to test the 10 day MVA first. We can be patient.
QCOM 04/16 Put 30.96 +0.69 32.56 29 15M 16M 30.28
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 44.38 +0.04 46.78 54 5.4M 8M 44.65
Buy Not Hit.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 44.38 +0.04 38.85 45 5.4M 11M 44.24
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 44.38 +0.04 41.4 50 5.4M 25M 44.24
QLGC 08/17 CCall 44.38 +0.04 36.48 0 5.4M 12M 44.24
Current.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 63.68 -0.45 0 0 456K 0 62.45
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 5.61 -0.15 4.84 7.1 504K 132K 5.45
Current.
RL 04/10 Cup hdl 23.35 +0.49 23.82 27.94 171K 433K 22.15
Buy Not Issued.
ROK 05/17 Cup hdl 21.58 -0.16 23.06 27.65 905K 1.3M 21.75
Buy Not Hit. Struggling without ever really getting off the ground.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 14.51 +0.16 12.22 16 633K 696K 13.94
Current. Ready to make the next move with a doji on the 10 day MVA.
SFNT 05/12 Cup hdl 25.1 +0.34 28.5 32.75 516K 394K 26.5
Exited. Tried to recover the 18 day MVA but failed.
SHRP 05/01 Cup hdl 20.41 +0.01 21.45 25.25 351K 293K 19.95
Buy Not Issued.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 8.19 +0.2 7.58 9.55 108K 125K 7.35
Buy Not Issued.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 13.31 -0.09 9.35 13.45 4.3M 2.5M 12.38
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA though volume is a bit high.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 21.64 -0.36 10.55 21.45 2.2M 800K 19.98
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA on the low and recovered much of the loss.
SPLS 03/31 Test 50 18.9 -0.84 20.3 23.55 9.4M 5M 19.68
Exited.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 29.3 -1.93 12.25 15.45 1.3M 110K 26.22
Current. Gapped higher and the reversed on strong volume. We will see if it holds the 10 day MVA at 27.50.
TEK 05/20 Cup hdl 19.45 +0.02 20.22 24.35 321K 500K 19.05
New.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 46.05 -0.57 0 0 2.4M 5M 0
TLB 05/17 Put 26.71 +0.7 26.38 23 325K 375K 27.45
Buy Not Issued. Tapped at the 50 day MVA on the high. May be ready to roll over.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 42.18 -0.03 43.75 52 461K 603K 42.85
Current. Trying to move back over the 18 day MVA, but having some trouble doing so.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 42.18 -0.03 38.6 44.38 461K 577K 42.85
Current.
TXN 05/10 Cup hdl 18.73 -0.04 20.45 24.55 7.4M 16M 18.96
Buy Not Hit.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 33.33 -1.06 29.12 33.55 11M 8.3M 33.74
Current. Sold to the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Time to hold.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 18.45 -0.1 18.12 21.75 186K 226K 17.92
Current. Nice doji at the 10 day MVA.
VIVO 05/07 BO 9.33 +0.13 9.56 11.25 40K 45K 8.94
Buy Not Issued. Moving laterally over the 18 day MVA, building pressure for the move.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 23.49 -0.71 19.76 20 13M 8.5M 22.05
Current.
VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 23.3 -0.03 19.98 23.85 234K 156K 22.26
Current. Excellent test of the 10 day MVA, showing a doji.
WMT 02/05 Put 52.81 +0.34 0 0 9.6M 8.2M 0
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 9.79 +0.22 6.95 8.42 4.5M 6.5M 9.35
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA, showing a doji on below average volume.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 26.58 +0.63 17.32 25 17M 20M 25.92
Current. Thudded to the 18 day MVA Monday, but held the line and edged higher Tuesday on even stronger volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
