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us stock market, trading system
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: BCR; FLSH; GPRO; GRMN; LU; MVL; WFII
Best Plays:
1) SNPS: Going to breakout Thursday and we will see if it can stick.
2) ADVP: Starting what looks to be a nice move.
3) BPOP: Excellent test of the 10 day MVA.
4) FLSH: Strong volume rally off the 10 day.
5) GPRO: Big volume off the 18 day.
6) HIL: Very nice, tight test of the 10 day MVA.
7) LEXR: Ready for more with a new handle forming.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/21/2003
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$49.17; +2.01; optionable): Independent oil and gas exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. APC is a big gas producer (Hugoton gas field among others) though it is also in Alaska and Algeria oil. Still, the summer natural gas shortage is being predicted, and APC has formed a nice 6-month base showing excellent 6 to 2 accumulation. Wednesday APC broke out on the Greenspan natural gas market call. We are looking to take positions and let them work higher for us through the summer.
Volume: 3.013M Avg Volume: 2.026M
BUY POINT: $49.32 Volume=3M Target=$56.88 Stop=$47.25
POSITION: APC HW - Aug. $47.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apc.html
Play Date: 05/21/2003
NCN (NCE Petrofund--$8.19; +0.03; no options): Oil and gas investment trust
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NCN invests in oil and gas properties in western Canada. There has been a growing shortage of natural gas, and with Greenspan's comments today that helped spark many natural gas stocks. Excellent 5 to 2 accumulation in the base with strong money flow. The price/volume action in the base is excellent. Volume was higher as it sold off to form the right side of the base, it dried up at the bottom of the base, and then it started surging as it moved up and built the right side of the base in May. During the handle volume peeled back. The stock technically broke out Monday as volume surged, but it is still well within the buy range.
Volume: 396.7K Avg Volume: 169.59K
BUY POINT: $8.28 Volume=254K Target=$10 Stop=$7.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncn.html
Play Date: 05/21/2003
SNPS (Synopsis--$50.9; +0.43; optionable): Technical & system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snps.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. SNPS has been on and off our list a bit, but now it looks as if it will make a definitive move. It is in a 5.5 month base showing 6 to 4 accumulation, and it just spent the last two weeks forming a handle to the base. Wednesday the stock gapped lower but then started to rally into the close on strong volume. Obviously some of the news about earnings escaped late in the day as the stock started to run. After hours it was trading around 53. That would put it at a breakout, and we will look at positions if we can catch them from 52.72 to 53.
Volume: 3.236M Avg Volume: 1.059M
BUY POINT: $52.72 Volume=1.6M Target=$60.75 Stop=$50.05
POSITION: YPQ IJ - Sept. $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/snps.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/19/2003
ADPT (Adaptec--$7.18; +0.01; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adpt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Very nice, tight doji Wednesday on continued below average volume as ADPT holds the 18 day MVA on a test of its base. Accumulation in the 4.5 month cup with handle base is excellent at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is also excellent. It has given two intraday tests of 7 and rallied back. Looking for that rising volume as it moves back up through the buy point.
Volume: 428.131K Avg Volume: 661.5K
BUY POINT: $7.65 Volume=825K Target=$9.21 Stop=$7.11
POSITION: APQ JU - Oct. $7.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adpt.html
Play Date: 05/20/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$32.89; +0.82; optionable): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ADVP started the move back up off the 18 day MVA test Wednesday on some rising though still below average volume. We liked it enough to initiate some positions, but need to see more volume on a further move for more confidence in the play. This is the second handle to its 13-month base showing solid 16 to 9 accumulation (16 up weeks on rising volume to 9 down weeks on rising volume). More volume and it looks good to go.
Volume: 1.45M Avg Volume: 1.497M
BUY POINT: New: $33.06 (orig. $32.68) Volume=2M Target=$39.22 Stop=$31.15
POSITION: QVD IF - Sept. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/advp.html
Play Date: 04/12/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$54.12; +0.88; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Test of 50 day MVA. APOL rallied up the short term MVA for 4.5 months and then took a breather down to the 50 day (52.50). Volume dropped Tuesday, and Wednesday APOL started back up on rising though still below average volume. Looking for more volume on this move higher as institutions move into the stock at this key institutional support level.
Volume: 1.642M Avg Volume: 1.835M
BUY POINT: New: 54.96 (orig. $52.75) Volume=2.7M Target=$59 Stop=$54.96
POSITION: OAQ HJ - Aug. $50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apol.html
Play Date: 04/03/2003
BPOP (Popular, Inc.--$37.59; -0.06; optionable): Foreign bank holding company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bpop.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. BPOP broke out of its base in April, ran up the 10 day MVA, and is making its first test of the 18 day (37.50). Wednesday BPOP showd a hammer doji that reached below the 18 day and then rallied back to close over that level on a strong volume surge. That typically indicates the pullback is over.
Volume: 559.212K Avg Volume: 196.227K
BUY POINT: New: $37.88 (orig. $35.25) Volume=200K Target=$40.45 Stop=$37.57
POSITION: BQW GG - July $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bpop.html
Play Date: 05/17/2003
EXTR (Extreme Networks--$5.11; +0.05; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/extr.html
STATUS: Testing the 200 day MVA. EXTR took it a bit lower Wednesday, tapping the 18 day MVA on the low (4.88) and bouncing back to close over the 200 day (5.05). Volume was not up, but we are looking for trade to rally as the stock starts back upon the back of the solid accumulation at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow continues to hold up ahead of the price.
Volume: 2.537M Avg Volume: 2.967M
BUY POINT: $5.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$7.42 Stop=$5.07
POSITION: EXJ IA - Sept. $5c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/extr.html
Play Date: 05/12/2003
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$10.3; +0.5; no options): Semiconductor flash memory
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FLSH is one of those solid movers in this rally, having broken out of a 5.5 month cup with handle just two weeks back. It rallied sharply on strong volume up to 10, then fell back on lower volume to test the 10 day MVA (9.50). It tapped that level Wednesday and started up on strong, above average volume. Very nice first test of the breakout, and we are looking at positions here, new or additional.
Volume: 299.015K Avg Volume: 150.545K
BUY POINT: New: $10.37 (orig. $9.20) Volume=195K Target=$10.96 Stop=$9.11
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flsh.html
Play Date: 04/05/2003
GPRO (Gen Probe--$36.53; +1.97; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Tested the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday low and recouped some of the losses. Wednesday it was up on lower though still above average volume, postiing a nice recovery from a shakeout. Looks ready for more.
Volume: 622.835K Avg Volume: 396K
BUY POINT: New: $37.25 (orig. $26.50) Volume=521K Target=$30.75 Stop=$34.05
POSITION: PSU HG - Aug. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpro.html
Play Date: 05/03/2003
HIL (Dot Hill Systems--$8.88; -0.02; no options): PC data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hil.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Excellent test of the 10 day MVA, moving laterally on very low volume in a tight range as money flow continues to rally higher. Very nice looking.
Volume: 263.1K Avg Volume: 251K
BUY POINT: New: $9.05 (orig. $7.45) Volume=250K Target=$8.96 Stop=$7.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hil.html
Play Date: 04/30/2003
LEXR (Lexar Media--$6.07; +0.31; optionable): Photo equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lexr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LEXR is now forming the handle to its 5.5 month base. It has excellent money flow that continues to lead the stock higher. After a quick test of the 10 day MVA the prior two sessions LEXR was up Wednesday on a very strong volume surge. Looks great.
Volume: 2.385M Avg Volume: 957.727K
BUY POINT: New: $6.18 (orig. $5.06) Volume=1.2M Target=$7 Stop=$5.35
POSITION: EQG IA - Sept. $5c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lexr.html
Play Date: 04/28/2003
MED (Medifast--$9.46; +0.06; no options): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/med.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still moving laterally as it taps the 10 day MVA on the low (9.04) on lower and lower volume. It has a constant top right at 9.60, and we are looking for it to move through that level on stronger volume.
Volume: 77.7K Avg Volume: 140.227K
BUY POINT: New: $9.62 (orig. $8.70) Volume=145K Target=$10.42 Stop=$8.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/med.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/20/2003
ACL (Alcon, Inc.--$41.45; +0.09; optionable): Medical supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acl.html
STATUS: Put. Tested lower to 41 on the low and rebounded on some stronger though below average volume. It is still below the 50 day MVA (41.90) and we are looking for it to move up to test that level and then fall from there as the double top failure continues.
Volume: 331.1K Avg Volume: 393.318K
BUY POINT: Test of 41.90, then $41.48 on the fall back down. Volume=400K Target=$38.75 Stop=$42.55
POSITION: ACL SI - July $45p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acl.html
Play Date: 05/19/2003
AVE (Aventis--$51.89; +0.19; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ave.html
STATUS: Put. Tuesday and Wednesday AVE has tried to move back up, but volume has been lower as it has been unable to make the move over the 10 day MVA stick. Looking for the fall from here.
Volume: 328.3K Avg Volume: 370.772K
BUY POINT: $50.96 Volume=375K Target=$48 Stop=$52.25
POSITION: AVE SK - July $55p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ave.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
trading system
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