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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
NOTE: The MEDI stop alert was an error. MEDI is not a current play.
The following was left out of part 1 by mistake: As for existing positions, as long as they are holding the near support levels we are going to stick with them. This applies mainly to stock positions as options tend to lose value over time. Longer term options (2, 3 and more months out to expiration) are not as impacted and we have some time to see if a rebound comes sooner than later. For shorter term we were exiting early in the week and we will exit more if no bounce comes soon. Even a low volume bounce can provide a good exit point for these. Remember, the longer a stock sits and goes nowhere, time works against options you buy as well as volatility. As volatility falls that component of the option price will fall as well and that is another impact on your option value.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: CTL; FLSH; GRMN; MAT
Wednesday Plays:
TEK: Still at the 10 day MVA showing a doji.
MAT: Started lower further on continued strong volume.
AGEN: Still at the 10 day MVA, trying to start the move.
FFIV: Starting up off the 18 day MVA but needs more volume.
Best Plays:
1) Like them all about the same.
2) Continuing: AGEN is still solid. AMZN still looks ready. CELG is in a nice test. FDRY is moving on solid volume. ILXO is testing well. SINA is making a nice test. VIVO looks ready.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/21/2003
ABTL (Autobytel--$5.01; 0; no options): Internet car sales facilitator
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abtl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ABTL shot out of a 4-month flat base in March, tested the 50 day MVA (now at 4.05) and rallied up to 5. It is now testing that move, holding the 10 day MVA on the low (4.80) and trying to move higher. Tuesday it did that on stronger, above average volume, and it repeated the move Wednesday after gapping lower, but on much lighter trade. This is its first real test of the 10 day MVA after the 50 day MVA test in April, and we view that as resetting the clock on the number of runs up the short term MVA (usually 4 to 5). That makes this a good entry point on a volume break higher. During the flat base accumulation was excellent at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Money flow is strong and is leading the stock price, a bullish indication for a move higher.
Volume: 147.672K Avg Volume: 247.09K
BUY POINT: $5.09 Volume=371K Target=$6.75 Stop=$4.73
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/abtl.html
Continuing plays that look good:
Play Date: 05/12/2003
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$10.3; +0.5; no options): Semiconductor flash memory
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FLSH is one of those solid movers in this rally, having broken out of a 5.5 month cup with handle just two weeks back. It rallied sharply on strong volume up to 10, then fell back on lower volume to test the 10 day MVA (9.50). It tapped that level Wednesday and started up on strong, above average volume. Very nice first test of the breakout, and we are looking at positions here, new or additional.
Volume: 299.015K Avg Volume: 150.545K
BUY POINT: New: $10.37 (orig. $9.20) Volume=195K Target=$10.96 Stop=$9.11
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/flsh.html
Play Date: 04/15/2003
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$12.72; +0.13; optionable): Computer networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. JNPR is another strong mover in the rally, having broken out of 5-month flat base in April. It is now making its second test of the 10 day MVA, holding that level on the Wednesday low (12.40) and starting to move back up. Volume was still low and below average, but we are looking for volume to flow back in on a further move. That will be our cue for new positions. Relative strength has broken out and money flow is strong. Accumulation in the base was excellent at 5 to 1, so there is plenty of solid foundation for this move higher.
Volume: 6.792M Avg Volume: 12.341M
BUY POINT: $10.6 Volume=17M Target=$13.42 Stop=$11.94
POSITION: JUX GB - July $10c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jnpr.html
Play Date: 04/28/2003
VSTA (Vista Care--$23.17; -0.13; no options): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsta.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A strong mover for us already, VSTA broke out in April, and has rallied and tested the 10 day MVA once already. It is now testing the 10 day MVA again, tapping that level on the Wednesday low (23.05) and showing a tight doji on low volume. It has moved back down on low volume on this test, exhibiting solid action. A new issued in December, this presents another good opportunity to average into a winner.
Volume: 190.25K Avg Volume: 228.545K
BUY POINT: New: $23.65 (orig. $19.98) Volume=156K Target=New positions: $27.50; orig. positions: $23.85 Stop=$22.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vsta.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
AMZN 05/03 BO 31.75 +0.27 30.3 35.45 5.2M 12M 30.08
Current. Very nice test in progress, holding the 10 day MVA.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.03 -0.6 26.62 30 109M 57M 25.55
Ugly fall on high volume. Nasdaq needs MSFT to recover, but it does not look as if it will do that soon.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 86.18 +0.41 88.62 100 6.7M 14M 86.85
Current. Recovered nicely form the test lower intraday.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABTL 05/21 Test BO 5.01 0 5.09 6.75 148K 371K 4.73
New.
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 9.7 +0.17 9.64 11.65 522K 521K 8.95
Current. Being very stingy with its gains, moving laterally to consolidate the big break higher.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 4.38 -0.07 4.45 5.45 235K 244K 4.21
Current. Tried a big move Tuesday but gave it back. Trying to hold the breakout over the 10 day MVA.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 10.59 -0.01 10.95 13.22 287K 417K 10.25
Current. Still holding the 10 day MVA in the handle.
AMZN 05/03 BO 31.75 +0.27 30.3 35.45 5.2M 12M 30.08
Current. Very nice test in progress, holding the 10 day MVA.
BCE 04/05 Cup 20.85 +0.02 19.9 23.75 134K 550K 20.09
Current. Still moving well up the 10 day MVA.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 12.01 -0.14 7.2 13.45 498K 300K 11.78
Current. Nice hammer doji at the 18 day MVA.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 20.1 -0.21 19.2 22.94 9.9M 15M 19.06
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on low volume.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 38.86 +0.34 40.54 47.55 10M 23M 38.45
Buy Not Issued. Held above the 50 day and trying to start back up.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 29.34 -0.26 30.98 37.12 1.2M 1.8M 29.04
Current. Nice hammer doji that tested the 18 day MVA on the low and recovered. Looks ready again.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.18 +0.05 6.28 7.58 95K 250K 5.84
Buy Not Issued.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 33.32 +0.72 32 38 667K 1.3M 31.48
Current. Solid jump up off the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 19.77 +0.17 14.12 17.25 2.2M 5.3M 18.56
Current. Still working laterally at the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
CVC 05/17 Test 50 20.15 -0.63 22.35 26.84 4.2M 3M 20.79
Buy Not Hit.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 9.25 -0.08 9.04 11.35 1.1M 1.9M 9.11
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume still.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 28.13 +0.1 23.81 28.42 157K 225K 28.35
Current. Holding up at 28.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 28.13 +0.1 22.75 27.35 157K 225K 28.35
Current.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 16.83 -0.51 17.62 20.95 1.6M 1.4M 16.96
Current. Volume moved back above average but DRIV did recover well off the low so we let it run.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 97.06 -0.69 69.45 92 5.4M 12M 94.92
Current. Doji at the 10 day MVA.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 97.06 -0.69 62.45 92 5.4M 12M 94.92
Current.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 13.86 +0.53 10.9 13.15 3.9M 4.4M 12.34
Current. Nice volume on the jump off the 10 day MVA test. Solid.
FFIV 05/21 Test 18 15.72 +0.38 15.62 18.55 307K 750K 15.23
Current. Held the 18 day and started back up. Not much volume
but when the market looks so-so that can be a time
to add to positions. This was an intraday alert.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 15.72 +0.38 15.34 18.32 307K 750K 15.23
Current.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 10.3 +0.5 9.2 10.96 299K 195K 9.11
Current. Nice volume move off the 10 day MVA.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 44.98 +1.23 22.34 37.45 2M 198K 44.44
Current. Gapped lower and then rallied on strong volume.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 15.45 -0.02 14.88 17.88 666K 1.2M 15.55
Current. Gapped lower but finished at the high so we let it ride.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 15.45 -0.02 14.65 17 666K 1.2M 15.35
Current.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 86.18 +0.41 88.62 100 6.7M 14M 86.85
Current. Recovered nicely form the test lower intraday.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 35.25 +0.08 0 0 144K 375K 36
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 15.34 -0.13 11.6 15.32 179K 293K 14.18
Current. Very nice lower volume 10 day MVA test.
ISPH 05/19 Flat 14.65 -0.13 16.28 19.55 751K 469K 15.05
Buy Not Hit.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 12.72 +0.13 10.6 13.42 6.8M 17M 11.94
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA and started up. Needs more volume.
LLTC 05/19 Put 32.9 -0.26 32.95 28.88 7.5M 7.5M 34.88
Current. Doji below the 50 day MVA on continued above average volume.
MAT 05/20 Put 21.14 -0.42 21.3 19.45 2.2M 2.5M 21.95
Current. Started lower again. Not a lot of volume, but we can
let it rebound and add positions on a failure at the
50 day MVA.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 19.9 -0.82 21.25 25.48 734K 825K 20.45
Current. Lower volume fall to the 50 day MVA.
MME 04/30 BO 47.3 -0.52 45.65 54.45 480K 634K 44.65
Current. Gave back some of the strong move but on lower volume and still in a great uptrend.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.03 -0.6 26.62 30 109M 57M 25.55
Ugly fall on high volume. Nasdaq needs MSFT to recover, but it does not look as if it will do that soon.
NTES 04/01 Cup 24.7 -0.65 17 27 1.2M 1M 25.38
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
NVDA 05/08 Cup hdl 20.91 +0.71 17.55 23.55 7.6M 11M 18.75
Buy Not Issued. Starting back up off the 10 day MVA. Needs some volume.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 28.96 +0.39 19.05 31 921K 1.2M 28.25
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA and starting up. Volume remains below average.
PLB 05/19 Put 41.5 -0.48 41.62 39.12 169K 275K 42.88
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 04/16 Put 31.38 +0.42 32.56 29 12M 16M 30.28
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 44.86 +0.48 46.78 54 5.3M 8M 44.65
Buy Not Hit. Nice hammer doji at the 18 day MVA.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 44.86 +0.48 38.85 45 5.3M 11M 44.24
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 44.86 +0.48 41.4 50 5.3M 25M 44.24
QLGC 08/17 CCall 44.86 +0.48 36.48 0 5.3M 12M 44.24
Current.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 63.95 +0.27 0 0 258K 0 62.45
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 5.51 -0.1 4.84 7.1 343K 132K 5.45
Current. Still struggling just below the 18 day MVA.
RL 04/10 Cup hdl 23.01 -0.34 23.82 27.94 711K 433K 22.15
Buy Not Issued. Decent earnings could not break it higher. Dropping.
ROK 05/17 Cup hdl 21.74 +0.16 23.06 27.65 426K 1.3M 21.75
Buy Not Hit. Falling too much. May be a shakeout but need to see a big breakout.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 14.79 +0.28 12.22 16 347K 696K 13.94
Current. Held the 10 day MVA and started up but needs some volume.
SHRP 05/01 Cup hdl 20.18 -0.22 21.45 25.25 230K 293K 19.95
Buy Not Issued.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 8.05 -0.14 7.58 9.55 103K 125K 7.35
Buy Not Issued. Very nice lateral move on lower volume, holding over the 10 day MVA.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 12.98 -0.33 9.35 13.45 2.6M 2.5M 12.38
Current. Holding over the 18 day MVA on the pullback.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 21.25 -0.39 10.55 21.45 1.3M 800K 19.98
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounding, showing a nice doji. Very nice pullback.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 24.75 -4.55 12.25 15.45 2M 110K 26.22
Current. Received a valuation downgrade and was gapped lower on big volume. Could not hold the 18 day. If it cannot bounce back over that & hold, best to close remaining positions and pick it up again lower.
TEK 05/20 Cup hdl 19.55 +0.1 20.22 24.35 233K 500K 19.05
Buy Not Hit. Still holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 46.95 +0.9 0 0 1.7M 5M 0
TLB 05/17 Put 26.78 +0.07 25.95 22.65 520K 375K 27.55
Current. Started to drop again but then rallied over the 50
day, failed, and closed below that level showing a
big doji below support. While we entered as it was
falling earlier in teh session, we like the action we see.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43 +0.82 43.75 52 288K 603K 42.85
Current. Back up to the 18 day MVA but on lower volume. Needs to make the move.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 43 +0.82 38.6 44.38 288K 577K 42.85
Current.
TXN 05/10 Cup hdl 18.77 +0.04 20.45 24.55 8.3M 16M 18.96
Buy Not Hit. Two consecutive dojis at the 50 day MVA with some rising volume Wednesday.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 34.09 +0.76 29.12 33.55 8.6M 8.3M 33.74
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA and starting up but on lower, below average volume.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 18.44 -0.01 18.12 21.75 317K 226K 17.92
Current. Big volume surge as UTHR ran to 19 again but again fell back.
VIVO 05/07 BO 9.55 +0.22 9.56 11.25 169K 45K 8.94
Buy Not Issued. Very nice volume but gave back much of the gain and the buy point on the close. Another solid move up Thursday and it is a buy.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 23.54 +0.07 19.76 20 8.9M 8.5M 22.05
Current.
VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 23.17 -0.13 19.98 23.85 190K 156K 22.26
Current. Very nice test of the 10 day MVA, showing a doji.
WMT 02/05 Put 52.59 -0.22 0 0 6.9M 8.2M 0
Trying to hold the 200 day MVA.
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 9.78 -0.01 6.95 8.42 3.9M 6.5M 9.35
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA in a test of the breakout.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 26.18 -0.4 17.32 25 9.8M 20M 25.92
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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