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stock recommendation, stock picking
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: ABTL; AMZN; BCE; DKS; FLSH; ILXO; TEVA; USAI; SINA; SOHU; etc.
Thursday Plays:
ABTL: Shot higher on a great volume breakout.
FLSH: Nice move higher on excellent volume.
JNPR: Moving up off the 10 day MVA on better volume.
VSTA: Tried to make the move. Still looks solid.
Best Plays:
1) WWCA: Very solid action.
2) CTXS: Like this base on base pattern.
3) Continuing: ILXO and SOHU making a support bounce. TEK is ready to breakout. UTHR may now clear to a recent high. XMSR is ready for its bounce.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/22/2003
WWCA (Western Wireless--$9.57; +0.87; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Cup with handle breakout. Wireless remains a strong tech sector, and WWCA has put together a nice 4-month base showing positive 5 to 4 accumulation. It exploded higher 7 sessions back on a breakout, moved laterally in a tight flying plateau, and then broke higher again Thursday on once again rising volume. Money flow continues to lead the way and relative strength made another breakout. We have no problem catching on to this move.
Volume: 1.114M Avg Volume: 549.363K
BUY POINT: $9.68 Volume=824K Target=$13 Stop=$9
POSITION: WRQ HU - Aug. $7.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wwca.html
Play Date: 05/22/2003
AVID (Avid Technology--$28.85; +0.87; optionable): Consumer electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avid.html
STATUS: Flat base. AVID broke out of a 3 month cup with handle base in early April, and ran to 28. For the last 4 weeks it has moved laterally, holding the 18 day MVA (27.60) as it does. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is making a breakout. Thursday AVID looked as if it is starting the next leg higher. Volume edged higher as it started up, but it did not break over average. We want to see volume jump as it makes its next move higher. This move puts AVID at a 4-year high.
Volume: 550.382K Avg Volume: 730.363K
BUY POINT: $29.06 Volume=750K Target=$34.78 Stop=$27.15
POSITION: AQI IF - Sept. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/avid.html
Continuing plays that look good:
Play Date: 03/29/2003
CTXS (Citrix Systems--$20.4; +0.63; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctxs.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After a strong breakout from a cup with handle pattern formed January to April, CTXS has held its gains and is now working laterally up the 18 day MVA (19.16) as it holds a constant top at 20.60. Money flow continues to rise as CTXS works laterally on below average volume. Relative strength is already breaking out ahead of the stock move. Volume edged higher Thursday as CTXS moved up toward a breakout. We want to see volume jump on the breakout.
Volume: 2.428M Avg Volume: 3.954M
BUY POINT: New: 20.65 (orig. $14.12) Volume=5.3M Target=$24.75; (orig. $17.25) Stop=$18.56
POSITION: XSQ ID - Sept. $20c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ctxs.html
Play Date: 04/12/2003
SINA (Sina.com--$14; +1.02; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. SINA was a leader off the October low and then took a break with the nice 3-month cup with handle base. It broke out, rallied to 15, and is now making a nice successful test of the 18 day MVA. It fell back to the 18 day (12.69) this week during the market selling, held, and with the rest of the leaders, started back up Thursday on rising, above average volume. We are looking at picking up additional positions as this looks still early in its move up the short term MVA.
Volume: 3.665M Avg Volume: 2.372M
BUY POINT: New: $14.15 (orig. $9.35) Volume=2.5M Target=New: $17.15 (orig. $13.45) Stop=$12.38
POSITION: NOQ IV - Sept. $12.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sina.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
AMZN 05/03 BO 33 +1.25 30.3 35.45 8.5M 12M 30.08
Current. Rallying on stronger volume after a good 10 day MVA test.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 26.89 +0.71 17.32 25 8.5M 20M 25.92
Current. Held the 18 day MVA and started up but needs some volume.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 86.08 -0.1 88.62 100 6.3M 14M 86.85
Current. Could not get over the 18 day MVA as volume trailed off. Needs to do it or we have to exit.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABTL 05/21 Test BO 5.31 +0.3 5.25 6.94 1.5M 371K 4.73
Current. Blasted higher on volume in the breakout.
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 9.9 +0.2 9.64 11.65 386K 521K 8.95
Current. Still working laterally as volume backs off.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 4.37 -0.01 4.45 5.45 258K 244K 4.21
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA with a doji as volume edges higher.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 10.61 +0.02 10.95 13.22 215K 417K 10.25
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on below average volume, trying to hold the breakout.
AMZN 05/03 BO 33 +1.25 30.3 35.45 8.5M 12M 30.08
Current. Rallying on stronger volume after a good 10 day MVA test.
AVID 05/22 Flat 28.85 +0.87 29.06 34.78 550K 750K 27.15
New.
BCE 04/05 Cup 21.13 +0.28 19.9 23.75 819K 550K 20.09
Current. Jumped higher on excellent volume.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 12.7 +0.69 7.2 13.45 549K 300K 11.78
Current. Rallying off the 18 day MVA still on rising though still below average volume.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 20.95 +0.85 19.2 22.94 11M 15M 19.06
Current. Up off the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 38.72 -0.14 40.54 47.55 13M 23M 38.45
Buy Not Issued.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 30.35 +1.01 30.98 37.12 1.4M 1.8M 29.04
Current. Up off the 10 day MVA.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.2 +0.02 6.28 7.58 249K 250K 5.84
Buy Not Issued.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 33.45 +0.13 32 38 556K 1.3M 31.48
Current. Still running up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 20.4 +0.63 14.12 17.25 2.4M 5.3M 18.56
Current. Looks ready for more.
CVC 05/17 Test 50 20.8 +0.65 22.35 26.84 2.6M 3M 20.79
Buy Not Hit.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 9.26 +0.01 9.04 11.35 841K 1.9M 9.11
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA with three straight dojis on below average volume. Holding well but needs to bounce on some volume.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 30.58 +2.45 23.81 28.42 525K 225K 28.35
Current. Blasted higher on volume and a relative strength breakout.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 30.58 +2.45 22.75 27.35 525K 225K 28.35
Current.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 18.09 +1.26 17.62 20.95 1.3M 1.4M 16.96
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA in a decent recovery.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 99.36 +2.3 69.45 92 5.3M 12M 94.92
Current. Moving up again to try 100 but volume is lower this time around.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 99.36 +2.3 62.45 92 5.3M 12M 94.92
Current.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 13.94 +0.08 10.9 13.15 2.8M 4.4M 12.34
Current. Good move off the 10 day but struggling again at 14. Needs to break over this level.
FFIV 05/21 Test 18 15.9 +0.18 15.62 18.55 366K 750K 15.23
Current. Held the 18 day MVA, and started showing some more volume Thursday though still below average.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 15.9 +0.18 15.34 18.32 366K 750K 15.23
Current.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 10.74 +0.44 10.55 12.75 403K 195K 9.69
Current. Continued the excellent rebound from the breakout test.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 10.74 +0.44 9.2 10.96 403K 195K 9.69
Current.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 45.6 +0.62 22.34 37.45 736K 198K 44.44
Current. Good bounce back though stalled some at the 10 day MVA.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 15.42 -0.03 14.88 17.88 618K 1.2M 15.55
Current. Trying to move up off the 50 day MVA.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 15.42 -0.03 14.65 17 618K 1.2M 15.35
Current.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 86.08 -0.1 88.62 100 6.3M 14M 86.85
Current. Could not get over the 18 day MVA as volume trailed off. Needs to do it or we have to exit.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 35.37 +0.12 0 0 180K 375K 36
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 16.27 +0.93 11.6 15.32 280K 293K 14.18
Current. Moving up off the 10 day MVA on volume. Very nice test of the short term MVA.
JNPR 05/22 Flat 12.93 +0.21 12.9 15.55 8.5M 17M 11.94
Current. Volume picked up as JNPR picked up steam off the 10
day MVA test.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 12.93 +0.21 10.6 13.42 8.5M 17M 11.94
Current.
LLTC 05/19 Put 33.8 +0.9 32.95 28.88 6M 7.5M 34.88
Current. Up to the 50 day MVA but on lower volume.
MAT 05/20 Put 21.49 +0.35 21.3 19.45 2.6M 2.5M 21.95
Current. Doji below the 50 day MVA.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 20.77 +0.87 21.25 25.48 1.2M 825K 20.45
Current. Held the 50 day MVA and bounced on some stronger, above average volume.
MME 04/30 BO 46.9 -0.4 45.65 54.45 1.2M 634K 44.65
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on the low and bounce up on some strong volume as it tests the 10 day after a good move.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.16 +0.13 26.62 30 93M 57M 25.55
NTES 04/01 Cup 27.24 +2.54 17 27 2M 1M 25.38
Current. Nice volume jump higher off the 18 day MVA as NTES starts to move up and lead again.
NVDA 05/08 Cup hdl 20.98 +0.07 17.55 23.55 7.4M 11M 18.75
Buy Not Issued.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 30.15 +1.19 19.05 31 953K 1.2M 28.25
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA but on continued below average volume.
PLB 05/19 Put 41.42 -0.08 41.62 39.12 207K 275K 42.88
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 04/16 Put 31.35 -0.03 32.56 29 14M 16M 30.28
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 45.13 +0.26 46.78 54 4M 8M 44.65
Buy Not Hit.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 45.13 +0.26 38.85 45 4M 11M 44.24
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 45.13 +0.26 41.4 50 4M 25M 44.24
QLGC 08/17 CCall 45.13 +0.26 36.48 0 4M 12M 44.24
Current.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 64.06 +0.11 0 0 317K 0 62.45
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 5.88 +0.37 4.84 7.1 971K 132K 5.45
Current. Big run up to 6.50 but backed off, giving back most of the gain.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 15.06 +0.27 12.22 16 559K 696K 13.94
Current. Trying to move over the previous high at 15.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 8.37 +0.32 7.58 9.55 198K 125K 7.35
Buy Not Issued.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 14 +1.02 9.35 13.45 3.7M 2.5M 12.38
Current.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 22.77 +1.52 10.55 21.45 2M 800K 19.98
Current. Moving up off the 10 day MVA test on good volume.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 26.47 +1.72 12.25 15.45 876K 110K 26.22
Current. Trying to rally back over the 10 day MVA after the valuation downgrade. Solid volume.
TEK 05/20 Cup hdl 20.08 +0.53 20.22 24.35 313K 500K 19.05
Buy Not Hit. Moving up on some rising volume. Close to the breakout.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 48.25 +1.3 0 0 2.4M 5M 0
TLB 05/17 Put 26.81 +0.03 25.95 22.65 181K 375K 27.55
Current. Tried to get over the 50 day MVA, but no volume. Looks ready to fall as earnings did not help it.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43 0 43.75 52 304K 603K 42.85
Current. Doji at the 10 day MVA as TSCO tries to move back up in the pattern.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 43 0 38.6 44.38 304K 577K 42.85
Current.
TXN 05/10 Cup hdl 18.63 -0.14 20.45 24.55 12M 16M 18.96
Buy Not Hit.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 35.7 +1.6 29.12 33.55 14M 8.3M 33.74
Current. Nice volume move up off the 18 day MVA.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 18.93 +0.49 18.12 21.75 374K 226K 17.92
Current. Super volume move off the 18 day MVA. UTHR just may be ready for the breakout over 19.
VIVO 05/07 BO 9.71 +0.16 9.66 11.38 215K 45K 9.05
Current. A second high volume breakout session.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 24.36 +0.82 19.76 20 6.8M 8.5M 22.05
Current. Held the 18 day MVA more or less, and now rallying back up.
VSTA 05/22 Test BO 23.41 +0.24 24.15 27.95 243K 156K 22.45
Current.
VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 23.41 +0.24 19.98 23.85 243K 156K 22.45
Current. Getting some volume on the move up off the breakout
test. Gave back some but still a solid move.
WMT 02/05 Put 52.9 +0.31 0 0 7.5M 8.2M 0
WWCA 05/22 BO 9.57 +0.87 9.68 13 1.1M 824K 9
New.
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 10.3 +0.52 6.95 8.42 4.8M 6.5M 9.35
Current. Trying to move off the short term MVA on the breakout test.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 26.89 +0.71 17.32 25 8.5M 20M 25.92
Current. Held the 18 day MVA and started up but needs some volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock picking
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