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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: ADIC; AETH; AGEN; AVID; BRCM; CNQR; CTL; NTES; SCSS; SOHU; UTHR; YHOO
Friday Plays:
WWCA: Continued the breakout on strong volume.
AVID: Upgrade sends the stock higher on volume.
CTXS: Moving up over the recent high but no volume.
SINA: Another good bounce up off the 18 day MVA.
Best Plays:
1) STX: Solid breakout and nice pullback.
2) SHRP: Showing volume and good money flow in the handle.
3) Continuing: NVDA many be ready again. QLGC is in a nice pullback. TEK is still on the brink of the breakout. CTXS, DCLK ready for more. LLTC is ready to roll back down.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/24/2003
AXP (American Express--$39.99; +0.04; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Financials continue to perform well and AXP is right there with them. It broke from a 3-month reverse head and shoulders in April, rallied up the short term MVA to 41.26, and spent last week pulling back to test the 18 day MVA (39.36). It bounced and is holding at the 10 day MVA to close the week. Accumulation in the base was solid at 10 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is leading the stock higher even as it moves laterally in the breakout test. Unlike many stocks, AXP's pattern is not showing the same toppy action. We like what we see as AXP broke from a double bottom in November, and then formed the last base. That base on base action works to really scrub the sellers out and set the stage for a better advance.
Volume: 3.231M Avg Volume: 5.271M
BUY POINT: $40.38 Volume=6M Target=$46.45 Stop=$38.96
POSITION: AXP JH - Oct. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/axp.html
Play Date: 05/24/2003
STX (Seagate Tech Holdings--$13.32; -0.11; optionable): PC data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. STX was a new issue in December after going private and then coming back to market. It formed a nice 4-month cup with handle base showing solid 5 to 3 accumulation. It finally made the volume breakout in May and has spent the past two weeks testing that move with a gentle pullback to tap the 18 day MVA (12.95) and hold. Volume started to creep higher late last week as the stock started up off of that support. Excellent money flow and a very good test that looks as if it is about to be resolved. Looking for a high volume move up for the test to be successful and to enter.
Volume: 1.288M Avg Volume: 1.959M
BUY POINT: $13.72 Volume=2.9M Target=$16.55 Stop=$12.76
POSITION: STX IV - Sept. $12.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/stx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/24/2003
OSI (Outback Steakhouse--$36.3; +0.27; optionable): Chain restaurant
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osi.html
STATUS: Put. OSI double topped in April and May. The May high at 38 was below the April high, and it was unable to generate any volume on th emove. Telltale signal of trouble. The volume finally came in, but it was on the downside as OSI tumbled Tuesday on a massive volume spike as the Canadian mad cow story hit. It made a lowe voluem rebound Thursday and Friday, but OIS was already having trouble before that, sliding down from its double top the two prior sessions before the news broke. It has moved back up to test the 18 day MVA, and we are looking for a roll back down and a break through the 50 day MVA (35.83) on rising volume.
Volume: 517.6K Avg Volume: 598.272K
BUY POINT: $35.8 Volume=897K Target=$33 Stop=$36.85
POSITION: OSI SH - July $40p (-84 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/osi.html
Continuing plays that look good:
Play Date: 05/23/2003
SHRP (Sharper Image--$21.72; +0.81; optionable): Gadget stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shrp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SHRP is back on. It was one we got a bit impatient with, but after the last test of the 18 day MVA in its handle it caught some volume and is starting to move back up toward a breakout from the 7-month base. Accumulation is solid at 7 to 3, and money flow is now racing back up, always ahead of the price during the lateral 6-week handle.
Volume: 313.21K Avg Volume: 244.454K
BUY POINT: $22.06 Volume=350K Target=$26.55 Stop=$20.52
POSITION: SAU HD - Aug. $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/shrp.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
AMZN 05/03 BO 32.72 -0.28 30.3 35.45 7.1M 12M 30.88
Current. Nice Thursday bounce, but it is back at the early May
high that it will have to clear.
WMT 02/05 Put 52 -0.9 0 0 7.2M 8.2M 0
Fell below the 200 day MVA Friday. Low volume but showing
continued weakness.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 28.49 +1.6 17.32 25 15M 20M 25.92
Current. What a move and on volume in a low volume market! Cleared
the recent high at 28, overcoming that valuation downgrade.
Barrons must be seeing red.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABTL 05/21 Test BO 5.41 +0.1 5.25 6.94 305K 371K 4.88
Current. Nice breakout Thursday on huge volume then paused a
bit Friday on lower volume. Nice break higher.
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 10.2 +0.3 9.64 11.65 984K 521K 9.22
Current. After the gap it had to pause and catch its breath,
and now it is moving higher.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 4.75 +0.38 4.45 5.45 606K 244K 4.21
Current. Nice volume move Friday after the 10 day MVA test,
but again backed off from 5.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 11.15 +0.54 10.95 13.22 912K 417K 10.25
Current. Nice gap higher Friday on volume as AGEN continues
the move after a 18 day MVA test.
AMZN 05/03 BO 32.72 -0.28 30.3 35.45 7.1M 12M 30.88
Current. Nice Thursday bounce, but it is back at the early May
high that it will have to clear.
AVID 05/22 Flat 30.42 +1.57 29.06 34.78 1M 750K 27.15
Buy Not Issued. Blasted higher in a sudden move and then never tested.
Volume was solid. We will look for an intraday test
lower and move in then. Upgrade helped the move.
AXP 05/24 Test BO 39.99 +0.04 40.38 46.45 3.2M 6M 38.96
New.
BCE 04/05 Cup 21.2 +0.07 19.9 23.75 223K 550K 20.55
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA, showing great volume
Thursday and following thru on lower trade Friday.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 12.72 +0.02 7.2 13.45 335K 300K 11.78
Current. Still working up the 18 day MVA but running into resistance
at 13, the next buy point if it breaks through on strong
volume.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 22.03 +1.08 19.2 22.94 17M 15M 20.12
Current. Big jump off the 10 day MVA Friday on a solid above
average volume surge.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 39.09 +0.37 40.54 47.55 8.4M 23M 38.45
Buy Not Issued. Going stone bored waiting on it, but up off the 50
day MVA last week while moving in the handle. Could
be getting ready.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 31.1 +0.75 30.98 37.12 1.3M 1.8M 29.04
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA late in the week though volume
did not rally with it.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 7.1 +0.9 6.75 8.12 910K 250K 6.12
Current. Beautiful breakout.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 34.36 +0.91 32 38 910K 1.3M 32.05
Current. Surging on volume. Beautiful.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 20.59 +0.19 14.12 17.25 2M 5.3M 18.92
Target Hit. Took the last of the gain on the June options, letting
the stock position run. Looking for more volume to
punch it higher.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 9.27 +0.01 9.04 11.35 790K 1.9M 9.11
Current. Got a bit wild, testing below the 18 day but then rallying
back to hold that level on the close.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 30.2 -0.38 23.81 28.42 466K 225K 28.35
Current.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 30.2 -0.38 22.75 27.35 466K 225K 28.35
Current. Took a breather Friday after the strong Thursday bounce.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 18.17 +0.08 17.62 20.95 944K 1.4M 16.96
Current. Good bounce Thursday to save it off the 18 day MVA
and then paused Friday.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 99.44 +0.08 69.45 92 5.5M 12M 94.92
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 99.44 +0.08 62.45 92 5.5M 12M 94.92
Current.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 13.93 -0.01 10.9 13.15 1.8M 4.4M 13.05
Current. Great move up the 10 day MVA, but it has hit 14 and
is struggling there.
FFIV 05/21 Test 18 16.01 +0.11 15.62 18.55 137K 750K 15.23
Current.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 16.01 +0.11 15.34 18.32 137K 750K 15.23
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA, but never really giving us the
strong volume we wanted.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 10.61 -0.13 10.55 12.75 251K 195K 9.69
Current.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 10.61 -0.13 9.2 10.96 251K 195K 9.69
Current. Almost hit the target Friday with a gap higher, but
gave it back on lower volume. Letting it work.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 46.28 +0.68 22.34 37.45 368K 198K 44.44
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and bounced as a good leader
should. Volume backed off latera in the week, but it
was there on the test. Now it needs to hold.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 15.59 +0.17 14.88 17.88 701K 1.2M 15.55
Current.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 15.59 +0.17 14.65 17 701K 1.2M 15.35
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA last week and survived, but not
heavy volume on the bounce up.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 85.26 -0.82 88.62 100 5.2M 14M 86.85
Exited. Poor action below the 18 day MVA and did not want it
to get worse.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 35.54 +0.17 0 0 180K 375K 36
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 16.45 +0.18 11.6 15.32 202K 293K 15.3
Current.
JNPR 05/22 Flat 12.8 -0.13 12.9 15.55 5.2M 17M 11.94
Current.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 12.8 -0.13 10.6 13.42 5.2M 17M 11.94
Current. Started the bounce back up off the 10 day last week
but could not get a lot of volume and needs to break 13.
LLTC 05/19 Put 33.65 -0.15 32.95 28.88 3.9M 7.5M 34.88
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA on the high and then fell back
on low volume. May be all it ahs on this lower volume
test of the 50 day MVA breakdown.
MAT 05/20 Put 21.45 -0.04 21.3 19.45 3.1M 2.5M 21.95
Current. Another doji at 21.50 as volume surged higher. Looking
for it to fail here.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 21.86 +1.09 21.25 25.48 810K 825K 20.45
Current. Nice 50 day MVA test and recovery Thursday and Friday.
Now needs to clear 22 on some volume to break it out
of this range.
MME 04/30 BO 47.63 +0.73 45.65 54.45 390K 634K 45.38
Current. Nice move last week as MME continued up the 10 day MVA.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.22 +0.06 26.62 30 77M 57M 25.55
Not stinking so bad, stopping the selling after it
was revealed that Balmer was selling shares to diversify.
NTES 04/01 Cup 29.7 +2.46 17 27 2.4M 1M 25.38
Current. Breaking to a new high on strong volume as NTES explodes
off the 18 day MVA late in teh week.
NVDA 05/08 Test BO 20.87 -0.11 21.66 26 7.3M 11M 19.94
Buy Not Issued. Very nice lateral consolidation the past two weeks
after exploding higher on earnings. The 10 day MVA
is rising to meet it, & when it does it is an explosive
combination.
OSI 05/24 Put 36.3 +0.27 35.8 33 518K 897K 36.85
New.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 30.92 +0.77 19.05 31 990K 1.2M 28.25
Current. Working up the 18 day MVA still, strong relative strength,
but volume remains below average.
PLB 05/19 Put 41.45 +0.03 41.62 39.12 283K 275K 42.88
Buy Not Issued. Not making the big drop.
QCOM 04/16 Put 30.9 -0.45 32.56 29 10M 16M 31.35
Stalling at the 18 day MVA again late in the week.
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 45.76 +0.63 46.78 54 4.2M 8M 44.65
Buy Not Hit. Starting to rally off the 18 day MVA and just needs water.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 45.76 +0.63 38.85 45 4.2M 11M 44.24
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 45.76 +0.63 41.4 50 4.2M 25M 44.24
QLGC 08/17 CCall 45.76 +0.63 36.48 0 4.2M 12M 44.24
Current.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 64.71 +0.65 0 0 165K 0 62.45
Moving laterally over the 18 day MVA the past three
weeks on low volume. Preparing for the next move. Needs
to clear 65.80 for new buys.
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 6.34 +0.46 4.84 7.1 561K 132K 5.45
Current. Explosive move off the 18 day MVA late in the week
on solid volume.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 15.62 +0.56 12.22 16 841K 696K 14.12
Current. Nice volume break higher Friday after the 10 day MVA test.
SHRP 05/23 Cup hdl 21.72 +0.81 22.06 26.55 313K 350K 20.52
New.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 9 +0.63 7.58 9.55 451K 125K 7.85
Finaly made the next break higher Friday on massive volume.
SINA 05/22 Cup hdl 14.66 +0.66 14.75 17.75 3.3M 2.5M 13.12
Current.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 14.66 +0.66 9.35 13.45 3.3M 2.5M 12.78
Target Hit. Another nice bounce higher late in the week off the
18 day MVA. Back to the recent high. Took the rest
of the June options off the table with a nice gain.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 24.48 +1.71 10.55 21.45 2.6M 800K 21.45
Current. Another super move late in the week, jumping up off
the 10 day MVA on a strong volume surge.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 26.93 +0.46 12.25 15.45 516K 110K 26.22
Current. Recovered to hold the 10 day MVA after the valuation
downgrade early in the week.
STX 05/24 Test BO 13.32 -0.11 13.72 16.55 1.3M 2.9M 12.76
New.
TEK 05/20 Cup hdl 20.09 +0.01 20.22 24.35 217K 500K 19.05
Buy Not Hit. On the edge of the breakout.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 48.4 +0.15 0 0 1.3M 5M 0
TLB 05/17 Put 26.95 +0.14 25.95 22.65 268K 375K 27.55
Current. Doji just below the 50 day on continued low volume
as TLB continues to struggle at that point.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43.01 +0.01 43.75 52 99K 603K 42.85
Current. Recovered from a wild start of the week on the LOW
earnings, holding at the 18 day MVA late in teh week.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 43.01 +0.01 38.6 44.38 99K 577K 42.85
Current.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 35.81 +0.11 29.12 33.55 7.8M 8.3M 33.74
Current. Great recovery off the 18 day MVA, showing great Thursday
volume. Now it is back at the recent high at 36, the
next key point.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 19.48 +0.55 18.12 21.75 362K 226K 18.48
Current. Sweet move late in the week off the 18 day as UTHR
moves to a 3 year high. Great volume. Tried the patience
but paid off.
VIVO 05/07 BO 9.9 +0.19 9.66 11.38 63K 45K 9.15
Current. Broke higher late in the week on volume though showing
a doji Friday on lower volume. Still a good break higher.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 24.33 -0.03 19.76 20 4.8M 8.5M 23.25
Current. Coming off the 18 day MVA test, but little volume.
Still in good shape.
VSTA 05/22 Test BO 23.34 -0.07 24.15 27.95 65K 156K 22.45
Current. Excellent test of the 10 day MVA last week. Started
up off it Thursday on good volume but then fell back
Friday. Low volume and still looks good.
VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 23.34 -0.07 19.98 23.85 65K 156K 22.45
Current.
WMT 02/05 Put 52 -0.9 0 0 7.2M 8.2M 0
Fell below the 200 day MVA Friday. Low volume but showing
continued weakness.
WWCA 05/22 BO 9.9 +0.33 9.68 13 1.8M 824K 9
Another strong volume move Friday in continuation of
the Thursday breakout.
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 10.25 -0.05 6.95 8.42 2.3M 6.5M 9.63
Current. Moving laterally last week over the 18 day MVA on low
volume, setting up for the next move.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 28.49 +1.6 17.32 25 15M 20M 25.92
Current. What a move and on volume in a low volume market! Cleared
the recent high at 28, overcoming that valuation downgrade.
Barrons must be seeing red.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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