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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: ADPT; AETH; EPIC; EXTR; GPRO; HIL; MED; NENG; ONXX
Best Plays:
1) BRL: Not looking to solid here.
2) BGEN: A 'name' biotech looking solid.
3) GSPN: Rallying again on volume.
4) WSTC: Primed for the next bounce.
5) AOS: Ready to make the move off the 18 day MVA.
6) KOSP: Volume is starting to come in.
7) NSM: Nice test.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 05/24/2003
BRL (Barr Labs--$52.56; -1.74; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Put. BRL split in March, rallied, and is now in a bit of trouble. It broke below the 50 day MVA (54.14) Friday on a big volume surge. Now this is not unknown territory as BRL has been below the 50 day MVA three times in the past month. In late April it jumped right back up the day after it fell. In early May it took a week to get back over the 50 day MVA. All the while, however, it has made lower highs after a double top in April. Moreover, the more time a stock hangs out in a bad neighborhood, the more trouble it gets into. The stock is under some distribution, and money flow has tanked. Still, we want to see it break below that recent support at 52 that bounced it back the prior two sell offs before we jump in.
Volume: 2.191M Avg Volume: 943.909K
BUY POINT: $51.94 Volume=1.4M Target=$48.06 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: IOB TY - Aug. $53.38p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brl.html
Play Date: 05/24/2003
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$20.78; -0.2; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Put. PSUN was a leader, but it disappointed with earnings and has been pummeled. The beating started a few days before earnings were out; Regulation D working well we see. When the news hit PSUN gapped below its 50 day MVA on, how do you say it, huge volume. It has clawed its way back up to the 50 day, tapping at it weakly on the Friday high (21.44) and then falling back as if that was all it had in it. We are looking for it to fold the tent and fall to the 18 day MVA.
Volume: 1.083M Avg Volume: 1.361M
BUY POINT: $20.55 Volume=1.7M Target=$18 Stop=$21.68
POSITION: PVQ UX - Sept. $$22.50p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/psun.html
Upside:
Play Date: 05/24/2003
BGEN (Biogen--$40.5; +1.22; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Biotechnology is attracting a lot of money, and BGEN's pattern is indicative of the nice accumulation in the sector. It is moving in a 4-month reverse head and shoulders pattern that is part of a larger cup base that started in November 2002. Accumulation since November is excellent at 9 to 3 (9 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume.. Money flow is strong and rising just ahead of price. In this right shoulder BGEN has worked up the 18 day MVA (38.83). It is showing good action as it approaches the neckline or breakout point, and we want to see a nice volume surge again as it makes that move.
Volume: 3.25M Avg Volume: 3.787M
BUY POINT: $40.94 Volume=4.5M Target=$47.55 Stop=$38.07
POSITION: BGQ JU - Oct. $37.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bgen.html
Play Date: 05/24/2003
GSPN (Globespan--$7; +0.54; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuit
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gspn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. GSPN broke out of a 3-month cup base in late April, and ran to over 7 on the breakout run. Last week it fell back to the 20 day MVA, held and started back up. Friday it surged with an excellent shot of above average volume. It has some of that short term head and shouldersw action, but the Friday moved did a lot to break that up. The 7 to 1 accumulation in the base does not hurt, and money flow is solid, surging back up with the stock after showing an excellent positive divergence at the time of the breakout. Looks ready for more.
Volume: 3.709M Avg Volume: 1.821M
BUY POINT: $7.35 Volume=2.8M Target=$10 Stop=$6.84
POSITION: GLQ HU - Aug. $7.50c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gspn.html
Play Date: 05/24/2003
WSTC (West Corp.--$24.61; +0.21; optionable): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wstc.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. WSTC broke out of a big double bottom in late March and has made two strong bounces up off the short term MVA on this run. Stocks tend to make 4 to 5 such runs before pulling back for a deeper test toward the 50 day MVA. That leaves plenty of upside here for WSTC as we can capture two more runs without too much trouble. The test last week was good, dropping to test the 18 day MVA on the Friday low (24.26) and then holding over the 10 day MVA with a nice tight doji as volume dropped all week. The first bounce should carry the stock toward 28 and that is our initial target. If the action remains good we will let it work for us more and ride the next bounce up as well.
Volume: 86.2K Avg Volume: 213.727K
BUY POINT: $24.88 Volume=215K Target=$28 Stop=$23.82
POSITION: HUD GX - July $22.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wstc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/19/2003
ADPT (Adaptec--$7.54; +0.32; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adpt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Solid surge Friday though volume was lower. Still a very nice breakout test, holding the 18 day MVA (7.20) and starting to rally. Just needs some volume now for positions. Accumulation in its 4.5 month cup with handle base is excellent at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow remains excellent.
Volume: 551.206K Avg Volume: 670.5K
BUY POINT: $7.65 Volume=825K Target=$9.21 Stop=$7.11
POSITION: APQ JU - Oct. $7.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adpt.html
Play Date: 05/17/2003
AOS (A.O. Smith--$31.21; +0.55; no options): Consumer electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aos.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AOS is making its second test of its breakout from the 3.5 month cup with handle back in April. It shot higher off the 18 day MVA (30.25) two weeks back and has made a nice orderly test of that move, tapping back at the 18 day MVA this past week. Friday AOS tested below the 18 day and then rallied back to post a gain. Volume was not there but we expect it to come in as accumulation in the base was excellent and money flow is leading the way higher even during the lateral test. The second test of the short term MVA after a breakout is a good entry point.
Volume: 41.6K Avg Volume: 87.863K
BUY POINT: $31.65 Volume=136K Target=$37.65 Stop=$30.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aos.html
Play Date: 05/14/2003
HTCH (Hutchinson Technology--$27.59; +0.07; optionable): PC Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/htch.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. This is one of the best looking sectors overall in tech, and HTCH still looks solid as it works through a big 6-month triangle. On the last downleg it used the 50 day MVA (25.12) as support as it rallied back to the top of the pattern at 28. It keeps making higher lows, a bullish indication, the last low being at the 18 day MVA juat over 20. It is ready to go.
Volume: 351.313K Avg Volume: 504.59K
BUY POINT: $28.06 Volume=802K Target=$33.35 Stop=$26.15
POSITION: UTQ HE - Aug. $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/htch.html
Play Date: 05/13/2003
KOSP (KOS Pharmaceuticals--$23.09; +0.59; optionable): Drug manufactures
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kosp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. KOSP has formed up well, fading back the last three weeks to scratch out a handle as the market started to get a bit choppier. That is what solid stocks do. Volume has backed off as KOSP came back to test the 18 day MVA (20) and then started up on rising, average volume Friday. Excellent 7 to 1 accumulaton in the 6.5 month base. We are looking at more aggressive positions on another solid volume move higher as well as more on the true breakout from the pattern.
Volume: 285.618K Avg Volume: 263.09K
BUY POINT: $23.25 Breakout: $25.22. Volume=400K Target=$27.48 Stop=$21.88
POSITION: KQW HX - Aug. $22.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kosp.html
Play Date: 04/23/2003
NSCN (Netscreen Technologies--$21.79; -0.23; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nscn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong run off of the July 2002 low NSCN a 3-month cup with handle base, broke out, and is now testing that breakout. It tapped the 18 day MVA (21.25) on the low last week and bounced right back up. This is an excellent test, and we are looking for NSCN to resume its move with a solid upside bounce for new positions.
Volume: 1.016M Avg Volume: 1.758M
BUY POINT: New: $22.25 (orig. $21.17) Volume=2.5M Target=$25.42 Stop=$20.94
POSITION: QKN ID - Sept. $20c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nscn.html
Play Date: 04/18/2003
NSM (National Semiconductor--$22.43; +0.24; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. NSM has been a chip leader with a strong breakout in early May from a nice 5-month cup with handle base. It surged up to 24 on the breakout and has now come back to test the 18 day MVA (21.95) in the choppy market last week. Volume for the most part was falling on the pullback. A very good test of the breakout, and if the chips are going to head back up NSM will be one of the leaders of the group.
Volume: 1.941M Avg Volume: 3.02M
BUY POINT: New: $23.25 (orig. $19.55) Volume=3.8M Target=New positions: $28.55 (orig. $24.88) Stop=$21.82
POSITION: NSM HX - Aug. $22.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nsm.html
Play Date: 05/08/2003
NVDA (Nvidia--$20.87; -0.11; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. NVDA announced blowout earnings before we had a chance to get in, and it gapped higher and never looked back. So we decided to wait for it to consolidate the move and provide the next entry point. It is a sign of strength that NVDA has not given up hardly any of the breakout, holding over 20 the entire time. The 10 day MVA has now risen to 20, and as we have seen again and again in this rally, when the 10 day MVA rises up to kiss a stock that has made a big break higher and is moving laterally, that often starts the next rally higher. Thus NVDA may come back again to test the 10 day or it may continue to move laterally for a few days until the 10 day gets there. Either way we will be ready because those can be explosive moves.
Volume: 7.252M Avg Volume: 8.259M
BUY POINT: $21.66 Volume=11M Target=$26 Stop=$19.94
POSITION: UVA ID - Sept. $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
Play Date: 04/28/2003
NWK (Network Equipment Tech--$7.71; +0.15; no options): Computer networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nwk.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. NWK broke out, got a bit choppy, but then held the 18 day MVA (7.40) last week and started back up. Indeed, Friday NWK was up on a strong volume shot as it moved up off of that support level. It gave back half of the move, unable to break 8. That was the point it stumbled on the last move higher. We are looking for this volume to provide another successful leg higher but given the trouble at 8, want to see it move over that level before we enter new positions. Make it prove to us we should put more money into it.
Volume: 320.2K Avg Volume: 171.909K
BUY POINT: New: 8.06 (orig. $7.11) Volume=256K Target=$9.45 Stop=$7.31
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nwk.html
Play Date: 05/07/2003
PWN (Cash America--$11.5; +0.02; no options): Pawn shops, easy cash for you.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After the nice breakout from the January to April double bottom, PWN has moved more or less laterally over the 18 day MVA (11.22). It has given a few big volume moves higher but has not been able to make the breakaway. It has now settled down the past three sessions on lower volume and a tighter range. Looking for it to make the next break higher here for new positions.
Volume: 22K Avg Volume: 82.272K
BUY POINT: $11.66 Volume=117K Target=$13.94 Stop=$11.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pwn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/19/2003
AVE (Aventis--$52.25; +0.17; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ave.html
STATUS: Put. After the big drop for a second failure at the 200 day MVA (52.85), AVE held the 18 day MVA (51.75) on the low and edged back up to try it again. Volume did not move up, however, falling lower and lower below average as the stock edged higher. Friday AVE shook its fist at the 200 day MVA on the high (52.77) and fell back for a fractional gain on bone dry volume. Money flow continues to fall and AVE remains under some distribution. After this third test of the 200 day MVA, the odds of failure leap higher. Looking for a high volume break lower through the 18 day MVA.
Volume: 126.4K Avg Volume: 376.181K
BUY POINT: New: $51.45 Volume=375K Target=$48 Stop=$52.25
POSITION: AVE SK - July $55p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ave.html
Play Date: 05/19/2003
PRX (Pharmaceutical Resources--$39.6; -0.9; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prx.html
STATUS: Put. After starting lower again at the first of the week form a test of the 10 day MVA, PRX jumped up to the 50 day MVA Thursday on volume. Friday, however, PRX ran into some trouble and fell back below the 50 day MVA (40.15). Overall PRX remains under some pretty serious distribution, and we still look for it to fail here.
Volume: 772.9K Avg Volume: 731.772K
BUY POINT: New: $38.88 (orig. $37.85) Volume=700K Target=$34.52 Stop=$39.75
POSITION: PRX SH - July $40p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prx.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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