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yahoo stock, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: RDN broke out on a gap up on strong volume (earnings), and IXX and RCBK broke out as well. SVRN, covered in last weekend's report, continued its strong breakout, as did PHM and KMX. Stocks are still moving on strong volume, as can be seen in some of tonight's new and updated plays. Portfolio stocks that continue to hold above support include SEBL, VRSN, ADBE, EXTR. ONIS is doing the same.
Best Plays:
1) SYY: Up on stronger volume.
2) PLB: Breaking out.
3) PFGC: In an ascending wedge.
4) BRKS: Ready to move if the market does.
5) VRSN: Will likely gap higher; look for a pullback for entry points.
New:
GSB (Golden State--$29.28; -0.12; optionable (GSB): Savings & Loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsb.html
STATUS: Forming an ascending wedge in the upper right side of its 4-month base (previous high is 31.88). The stock has lower support at the 10 day MVA (28.99) and upper resistance in the pattern at 30.30. Looking for a breakout over that level on strong volume (which was lower on the pullback to a doji at 249,300; avg. 684,181). The stock shows strong money flow and high relative strength. Target: $33-35.
BUY POINT: 30.43, on volume of 924,000 or better. Stop loss: 29.93-30.18.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (GSB GF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gsb.html
SYY (Sysco--$28.25; +0.73; optionable (SYY): Food wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syy.html
STATUS: Making a breakout move from a type of wedging pattern that formed at the bottom of its 4-month base. The stock broke resistance at the 28 level on a shot of volume (1.6 million; avg. 1.4 million), and looks good for a continued move up from here. SYY shows good money flow and money flow that's moved out ahead of price, a bullish sign. Target on a breakout: $31-32.
BUY POINT: Remains a buy on the breakout up to 29.54. Stop loss: 27.63-27.88.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (SYY HY).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/syy.html
Updates:
PLB (American Italian Pasta--$36.83; +2.53; optionable PLB): Food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plb.html
STATUS: Earnings were out Wednesday and the stock headed up Thursday, breaking out of its recent 2-month base on strong volume (251,800; avg. 112,227). Remains a buy on this move over the buy point of 36.38. PLB shows great money flow, and relative strength broke out. Initial target:
BUY POINT: Remains a buy on the breakout up to 38.20. Stop loss: 36.33-36.58.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (PLB FG; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/plb.html
PFGC (Performance Food--$54.70; +2.28; optionable (PGU): Food wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Attempting a breakout from its ascending wedge pattern, formed since early March in the 4-month base. Pattern high is at 54.80, and the stock pulled back below that level from the high of 56.05. Volume was high at 238,400 (avg. 143,000), well above average, so we will look for a move back up as that remains strong. Target: $60-63.
BUY POINT: 54.93, on volume of 193,000 or better. Stop loss: 54.43-54.68. Remains a buy on the breakout up to 57.68.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $50 calls to buy (PGU FJ; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pfgc.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Some of the new leaders have fallen under the pressure of the bear market and can no longer be considered top picks for such investments (ACS, LLL, NATI, ESRX). We continue to look to stocks like CPN and SGR (and are adding NVDA) as the new leaders, as they are holding up well. With this in mind, we must reiterate that while we are looking for any of these stocks to once again yield long-term investments when the markets turns, for now the plays for moves up in such stocks should be considered largely short-term. We must focus on the stocks that are performing best in a down market as they tend to help lead when the market turns back up.
New Leaders: CPN, SGR, ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS, NVDA, BRKS
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
BRKS (Brooks Automation--$58.17; +2.05; optionable (BQE): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brks.html
STATUS: The stock got a good shot of volume (1.1 million; avg. 606,590) and hit a high after this morning's earnings report, but drifted back to support by day's end. BRKS is trying to break out of a 9-month base, but closed back under the buy point of 59.23. Look for support at the 56 level (where the stock opened today) on a pullback. The stock may retest the 10 day MVA (52.56) like it did 3 days ago if the market does not head back up from here. Initial target: $69.
BUY POINT: 59.23, on continued strong volume (min. breakout volume is 910,000). Stop loss: 58.73-59.98.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (BQE GJ; 73 open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/brks.html
NVDA (Nvidia--$73.75; -6.31; optionable (RVU):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Will it hold or will it not? The stock was down to the 18 day MVA on the low of 73, as volume moved higher to 6.1 million (avg. 4.3 million), as the stock sold down from its opening gap higher at 81.80. That was the high for the day. Still holding above the buy point of 73.38, and the stock is trading a point and a half higher after hours (at the time of this writing), so we will look for the bounce. The stock has shown stronger volume on selling the last 2 of 3 days, so it is at a critical point here. NVDA is a leading stock in the current market, so we want to see it hold here. April high is 89.99.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a bounce from 72.87 (18 day MVA) on continued rising volume. Stop loss: 72.37-72.62.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or June $65 or $70 calls to buy (RVU FM or FN). Next month out is September.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
CPN (Calpine--$54.99; +1.39; optionable (CPN): Utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpn.html
STATUS: Has formed a little ascending wedge pattern above its 10 day MVA (53.48), with highs finding resistance just under 57. Volume was lower on today's move (still above the average of 3.7 million, coming in at 6 million), when the stock pulled off the high of 56.75 (testing that resistance again). On a pullback in the pattern we look for support at the 10 day MVA (53.48). From there the stock can rebound for a move up to a breakout, but will need strong volume on the move. Target on a breakout:
BUY POINT: 56.88, on volume of 5 million or better (min. breakout volume). Stop loss: 56.38-56.63.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (CPN GJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cpn.html
Previous Leaders:
SEBL (Siebel--$41.53; -1.40; optionable (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: Continuing to watch SEBL as it holds above support (50 day MVA, 40.20). The stock opened higher (44.42) but pulled back down in the day's fashion, holding above the moving average but showing slightly higher volume (15.5 million; avg. 17.9 million). The stock is in good position for a bounce if it continues down from here, as the market turns to a rally. Look for that move on continued rising volume. Initial target over the previous high of 47.80: $53-55.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a bounce from 40.20 range (50 day MVA) on volume of 20 million or better. Stop loss: 39.70-39.95.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $35 calls to buy (SGW HG). Better delta than August $40 options.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sebl.html
VRSN (Verisign Inc--$46.22; -0.38; optionable (VUQ)): Internet Software & Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrsn.html
STATUS: The stock didn't move (except slightly down) in regular trading, but the stock shot up after hours, at the time of this writing up to $51. Volume was stronger intraday as the stock held above support (10 day MVA, 45). The 50 day MVA is at 47.21, so that is the resistance to break on a move up from here. VRSN can gap up on the opening price due to the late activity, so look for a test of today's closing price or its opening price, for a good entry point. Initial target: $60.
BUY POINT: Over 47.21 on continued rising volume. Stop loss: 46.71-46.96.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $40 or $45 calls to buy (QVR FH or FI). Next month out for options is September.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vrsn.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have added some new stocks to this portfolio: LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. We like the patterns and their earnings numbers, and they are holding up in this market. The currently existing members (EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST) are on a watchlist we will continue to monitor for recovery when the market finally emerges from the bear market.
No reports on stocks in this portfolio tonight.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
MVSN (Macrovision--$60.04; +2.54; optionable (MVU): Media
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvsn.html
STATUS: The stock remains below its 200 day MVA (67.40), but is in a decent pattern, a cup with handle with price moving up the last 3 days from the handle's base on stronger volume. Volume dropped back Thursday (to 973,700; avg. 769,000), but remains above average, which is still strong, and one day of lower volume (after a day of strong volume) does not mean an immediate pullback. In a rally look for a breakout over the handle high (63.39). Initial target is $70; above that, $77. Money flow is strong into the stock.
BUY POINT: 63.52, on volume of 1.2 million or better. Stop loss: 63.02-63.27. Potential resistance at the 200 day MVA (67 range).
POSITION: Stock. July $55 calls to buy have low open interests (MVU GK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mvsn.html
Potential Puts if the market starts to fade:
CHKP (Check Point--$60.80; -3.49; optionable (KEQ): Security Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chkp.html
STATUS: Fighting its 50 day MVA (66.02), retreating from it again on lower volume (11.8 million; avg. 12.4 million) and breaking below the 18 day MVA (62.92). The low tested near previously noted support at the 60 level, and on a move below that on stronger volume, we will look at the downside play.
BUY POINT: On a move below 60 on stronger volume in market selling.
POSITION: June $70 puts to buy (KEQ RN).
CIEN (Ciena--$52.15; -5.39; optionable (UEE): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cien.html
STATUS: Broke support at the 18 day MVA (54.11) on average volume (29.5 million) that was down from just the higher levels of Wednesday. Should the market begin to sell off, the stock has the potential to drop to 39. CIEN crossed back below its long-term down trendline as well (connects Oct/Jan/Feb highs).
BUY POINT: Down from here on stronger, above average volume in market selling.
POSITION: June $65 puts to buy (UEE FM). June $55 put options (EUQ RK) did not have prices listed at the time of this writing.
VTSS (Vitesse--$29.02; -3.98; optionable (VQT): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vtss.html
STATUS: Took out the 18 day MVA (29.44) on stronger volume (8.2 million; avg. 8.3 million). On a turn in the market to selling, the stock can break down further, offering a potential downside play to 18-19. The stock is not looking that weak, but the action today is not healthy, and a selling market can threaten it further.
BUY POINT: On a continued move down on stronger volume in a selling market.
POSITION: June $35 puts to buy (VQT RG).
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
top stock pick
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