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stock strategy, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: Many
Monday Plays:
AXP: Starting the move on rising, above average volume.
STX: Nice surge off the 10 day MVA
SHRP: On the verge of the breakout.
OSI: Big doji right at the 18 day MVA. May be ready to fall now.
Best Plays:
1) JCOM: This stock has a lot of pop.
2) C: Nice volume surge.
3) Continuing: VSTA is making a nice move along the 10 day MVA. FDX looks ready for more. XMSR is also moving over the 10 day MVA.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/27/2003
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$36.35; +3.23; optionable): Internet communications software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. JCOM was an early leader, rallying all of 2002. It fell into a 5-month base November to March, breaking out, but then getting a valuation downgrade after a strong move on outstanding earnings. That downgrade pushed it down hard to the 50 day MVA (30). From there it held and formed the current 6-week cup with handle base. That is rather short for a base, but JCOM is starting to move already and on strong volume. It formed a short, low volume handle last week and then exploded higher Tuesday on above average volume. Strong money flow and solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the short base (3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume. Following the prior 5-month base, this is good action and we are looking for a breakout.
Volume: 1.024M Avg Volume: 678.272K
BUY POINT: $36.85 Volume=1M Target=$44.25 Stop=$33.94
POSITION: JQF IG - Sept. $35c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jcom.html
Play Date: 05/27/2003
LUV (Southwest Airlines--$16.1; +0.7; optionable): Regional airline
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luv.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. LUV formed a 5-month cup with handle through May, making a storng breakout at the first of the month. As the market got a bit choppy LUV fell back to the 50 day MVA (15.18) and then exploded higher Tuesday on very strong, above average volume. Accumulation in the base is solid at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is solid and moving up ahead of the stock. LUV is a stock that tends to move up to the low 30's, split, and then do it all over again. It looks as if it has this last 1.5 years of turmoil behind it and will start producing that same steady pattern of rallies and splits. After all, it did mostly keep its profitability in the downturn.
Volume: 3.301M Avg Volume: 2.408M
BUY POINT: $16.45 Volume=3.6M Target=$20.45 Stop=$15.35
POSITION: LUV IC - Sept. $15c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/luv.html
Continuing plays that look good:
Play Date: 04/18/2003
C (Citigroup--$40.18; +1.09; optionable): Big bank and credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/c.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After an extended 6 week right shoulder, that tested the 50 day MVA on the lows (37.98), C jumped up Tuesday on stronger, above average volume. It is showing excellent 10 to 2 accumulation in the 7-month base that started in November. Excellent money flow is also helping lead the way higher. Looking for a strong breakout to clear this near resistance.
Volume: 16.858M Avg Volume: 14.856M
BUY POINT: $40.54 Volume=23M Target=$47.55 Stop=$38.45
POSITION: C IU - Sept. $37.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/c.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
AMZN 05/03 BO 34.85 +2.13 30.3 35.45 12M 12M 30.88
Current. Breakout over resistance on above average volume.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 29.97 +1.48 17.32 25 22M 20M 25.92
Current. Wow. Nice strong move off the 10 day MVA.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABTL 05/21 Test BO 5.32 -0.08 5.25 6.94 197K 371K 4.88
Current. Low volume test after the big move.
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 10.77 +0.57 9.64 11.65 1.4M 521K 9.22
Current. Surging on volume.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 5.03 +0.28 4.45 5.45 658K 244K 4.21
Current. Surging on volume.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 12.13 +0.98 10.95 13.22 1.5M 417K 10.25
Current. Another surge on volume.
AMZN 05/03 BO 34.85 +2.13 30.3 35.45 12M 12M 30.88
Current. Breakout over resistance on above average volume.
AVID 05/22 Flat 31.19 +0.77 29.06 34.78 1.3M 750K 27.15
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounded. The test happened quickly & we were not quick enough.
AXP 05/24 Test BO 40.72 +0.73 40.75 46.45 5.9M 6M 38.85
Current. Nice and still in the buy zone.
BCE 04/05 Cup 21.53 +0.33 19.9 23.75 362K 550K 20.55
Current. Super move.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 13.31 +0.58 7.2 13.45 777K 300K 11.78
Current. Nice break over resistance at 13 on above average volume.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 23.72 +1.69 19.2 22.94 17M 15M 20.12
Target Hit. Took some gain.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 40.18 +1.09 40.54 47.55 17M 23M 38.45
Buy Not Issued.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 33.47 +2.37 30.98 37.12 8M 1.8M 29.04
Current. Surging on strong volume but gave back a big part of the move.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.88 -0.21 6.75 8.12 293K 250K 6.12
Current. Gave back some on lower, average volume.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 33.97 -0.39 32 38 1.2M 1.3M 32.05
Current. Gave back some on rising volume after the strong move.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 21.12 +0.53 14.12 17.25 4M 5.3M 18.92
Current. Stronger volume toward average.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 9.86 +0.59 9.04 11.35 1.2M 1.9M 9.11
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA on strong volume.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 29.4 -0.8 23.81 28.42 445K 225K 28.35
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA as it took a breather during the rally.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 29.4 -0.8 22.75 27.35 445K 225K 28.35
Current.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 19.1 +0.93 17.62 20.95 1.2M 1.4M 16.96
Current. Nice recovery off the 10 day MVA on volume.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 103.05 +3.61 69.45 92 12M 12M 94.92
Current. Did not waste any time getting over 100 on volume.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 103.05 +3.61 62.45 92 12M 12M 94.92
Current.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 14.83 +0.9 10.9 13.15 3.8M 4.4M 13.05
Current. Super move.
FFIV 05/21 Test 18 16.8 +0.79 15.62 18.55 593K 750K 15.23
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA, finally showing the volume.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 16.8 +0.79 15.34 18.32 593K 750K 15.23
Current.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 11.09 +0.48 10.55 12.75 373K 195K 9.69
Current. Still moving higher.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 11.09 +0.48 9.2 10.96 373K 195K 9.69
Target Hit.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 48.3 +2.02 22.34 37.45 761K 198K 44.44
Current. Excellent recovery from the 50 day MVA on volume.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 15.84 +0.25 14.88 17.88 754K 1.2M 15.55
Current. Moving up off the 50 day MVA but not a strong move.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 15.84 +0.25 14.65 17 754K 1.2M 15.35
Current.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 87.69 +2.43 0 0 7.2M 14M 0
Big bounce up off the 50 day MVA.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 36.12 +0.58 0 0 272K 375K 36
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 17.61 +1.16 11.6 15.32 352K 293K 15.3
Current. Surged on rising though average volume.
JCOM 05/27 Cup hdl 36.35 +3.23 36.85 44.25 1M 1M 33.94
New.
JNPR 05/22 Flat 13.89 +1.09 12.9 15.55 24M 17M 11.94
Current. Volume surge on the move off the 10 day MVA.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 13.89 +1.09 10.6 13.42 24M 17M 11.94
Current.
LLTC 05/19 Put 35.36 +1.71 32.95 28.88 6.2M 7.5M 34.88
Exited.
LUV 05/27 Test 50 16.1 +0.7 16.45 20.45 3.3M 3.6M 15.35
New.
MAT 05/20 Put 21.51 +0.06 21.3 19.45 3.7M 2.5M 21.95
Current.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 23.14 +1.28 21.25 25.48 1.7M 825K 20.45
Current. Continuing the big break higher.
MME 04/30 BO 47.68 +0.05 45.65 54.45 292K 634K 45.38
Current.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.79 +0.57 26.62 30 69M 57M 25.55
NTES 04/01 Cup 32.33 +2.63 17 27 2.9M 1M 25.38
Current. Nice break over resistance.
NVDA 05/08 Test BO 22.72 +1.85 22.62 27 14M 11M 20.05
Current. Excellent break higher out of the lateral consolidation.
OSI 05/24 Put 36.3 0 35.8 33 620K 897K 36.85
Buy Not Hit.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 33.6 +2.68 19.05 31 1.1M 1.2M 28.25
Current. Not much volume as OVTI rallied with the market.
PLB 05/19 Put 42.29 +0.84 41.62 39.12 155K 275K 42.88
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 04/16 Put 31.77 +0.87 32.56 29 10M 16M 31.35
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 47.8 +2.04 46.78 54 4.7M 8M 44.65
Buy Not Hit. Nice 18 day MVA but not much volume.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 47.8 +2.04 38.85 45 4.7M 11M 44.24
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 47.8 +2.04 41.4 50 4.7M 25M 44.24
QLGC 08/17 CCall 47.8 +2.04 36.48 0 4.7M 12M 44.24
Current.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 65.47 +0.76 0 0 318K 0 62.45
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 6.4 +0.06 4.84 7.1 431K 132K 5.45
Current. Still trying to clear 7.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 15.4 -0.22 12.22 16 526K 696K 14.12
Current. Took a breather on lower volume.
SHRP 05/23 Cup hdl 21.85 +0.13 22.06 26.55 267K 350K 20.52
Buy not hit.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 9.57 +0.57 7.58 9.55 784K 125K 7.85
SINA 05/22 Cup hdl 15.28 +0.62 14.75 17.75 4.6M 2.5M 13.12
Current. Up again and on volume.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 15.28 +0.62 9.35 13.45 4.6M 2.5M 12.78
Current.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 25.66 +1.18 10.55 21.45 3.2M 800K 21.45
Current. What a strong bounce. Straight up so it will have to test back at some point, but a market leader.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 29.1 +2.17 12.25 15.45 504K 110K 26.22
Current. Up over the 18 day MVA.
STX 05/24 Test BO 13.95 +0.63 13.95 16.75 2.2M 2.9M 12.92
Current. Nice volume rally off the 10 day MVA.
TEK 05/20 Cup hdl 20.65 +0.56 20.44 24.45 382K 500K 19.42
Current. Great breakout on volume.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 49.5 +1.1 0 0 2.5M 5M 0
TLB 05/17 Put 27.46 +0.51 25.95 22.65 267K 375K 27.55
Current. Up over the 50 day but on below average volume. Will see if can fall here.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43.42 +0.41 43.75 52 138K 603K 42.85
Current. Holding over the 18 day MVA, but did not participate.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 43.42 +0.41 38.6 44.38 138K 577K 42.85
Current.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 37.1 +1.29 29.12 33.55 15M 8.3M 33.74
Current. Nice volume move continues.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 20.38 +0.9 18.12 21.75 334K 226K 18.48
Current. Super blast.
VIVO 05/07 BO 9.7 -0.19 9.66 11.38 116K 45K 9.15
Current. Did not participate in the move, testing the 10 day MVA and bouncing some to recoup most of the loss.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 26.08 +1.75 19.76 20 11M 8.5M 23.25
Current.
VSTA 05/22 Test BO 23.21 -0.13 24.15 27.95 603K 156K 22.45
Current. Very nice test of the 10 day MVA still in progress.
VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 23.21 -0.13 19.98 23.85 603K 156K 22.45
Current.
WMT 02/05 Put 52.5 +0.5 0 0 16M 8.2M 0
Managed to recover the 200 day MVA on some massive volume as it announces new strategy for entering large urban areas with expensive land values.
WWCA 05/22 BO 9.9 0 9.68 13 1.6M 824K 9
Ralled but then gave it back. Looking for a test of the 10 day at 9.
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 10.55 +0.3 6.95 8.42 4.6M 6.5M 9.63
Current. Working along the 10 day MVA, getting ready for the next move.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 29.97 +1.48 17.32 25 22M 20M 25.92
Current. Wow. Nice strong move off the 10 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock strategy
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