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yahoo stock, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 2
For a review of frequently asked questions, please use the link below:
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THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: Lots of stocks we have covered on the Daily have been breaking out in the improved market: RDN, KMX, PHM, SCRN, RCGI, ROP, TSS, CFBX, IXX and RCBK to name a few. GSB still looks good in its ascending wedge, and SYY made a move up and has more upside potential in its base.
Best Plays:
1) BWS: Ready to break out.
2) KM: A breakaway gap.
3) MGL: Ready to break out of its long base.
4) WLSN: Ditto, and on huge volume.
5) ONIS: At support on low volume.
6) SEBL: Continues to look ready for a breakout.
7) LOW: Another breakaway gap.
New: A stock with average daily volume just under 100,000 shares:
BWS (Brown Shoe--$19.65; +1.10; no options): Textile: Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bws.html
STATUS: Making a breakout move from the base of its handle in a 22-month cup with handle pattern. The stock used support (50 day MVA, 18.21) to launch the move up toward the handle high of 20.50 on a strong surge of volume (90,300; avg. 77,318). Money flow is huge into the stock, and buying is picking up. Initial target: 24
BUY POINT: 20.63, on volume of 116,000 or better. Remains a buy on the breakout up to 21.66. Stop loss: 19.18.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bws.html
A trading play: Not necessarily a long-term buy at this point, but looks good for the short term play.
KM (K-Mart--$9.82; +0.58; optionable (KM): Discount stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/km.html
STATUS: A breakaway gap on strong volume (4.9 million; avg. 3 million), KM is breaking out of a trading range consolidation that formed above its 50 day MVA (8.90) on overall low volume. Breakout was at 9.75 and is good until 10.25. Money flow is outstanding. Initial target: $12.
BUY POINT: 9.88, on continued strong volume (min. breakout volume is 4 million). Remains a buy on the breakout up to 10.37. Stop loss: 9.00.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $7.50 calls to buy (KM FU). Next month out: September.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/km.html
Updates:
Another chip stock that is looking good:
MGL (Magellan Health--$10.20; +0.85; optionable (MGL): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgl.html
STATUS: Making a breakout move from its 21-month cup with handle base. Volume soared Friday to 294,400 (avg. 131,727) as the stock shot off support of the 18 day MVA (9.27). Buy point (or pivot point) is one-eighth point above the handle high of 10.49. The stock shows outstanding money flow and a relative strength that has broken out ahead of price. Initial target: $12.
BUY POINT: 10.62, on continued strong volume (min. breakout volume is 198,000). Stop loss: 9.75.
POSITION: Stock. August $7.50 or $10 calls to buy (MGL HU and HB, low or no open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mgl.html
WLSN (Wilsons Leather--$19.45; +0.66; no options): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlsn.html
STATUS: Made the move back over 19 after we thought we'd lost a nice pattern, on soaring volume at 477,000 (avg. 113,000). The stock retested the 50 day MVA (currently at 18.26) the previous 2 days, but responded as the retailers had a great day. Looking for a breakout over the handle high of 20 (the stock is in an 8-month cup with handle). Initial target: $22-23.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 20.13, on volume of 170,000 or better. Stop loss: 18.70.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wlsn.html
KMX (Circuit City/Carmax--$10.41; +0.58; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmx.html
STATUS: After its recent breakout, the stock pulled back off the high of 10.40 on steadily decreasing volume (an orderly pullback), then headed up Friday from Thursday's tight doji as volume roared back up (257,000; avg. 137,000). Looks like a successful test, and we'll look at adding to positions on a move up from here. The stock closed a cent over the breakout high. Great money flow and buying. Initial target: $12.
BUY POINT: From here on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 9.18.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/kmx.html
ONIS (Oni Sys--$31.99; -1.04; optionable (EUI): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/onis.html
STATUS: Back at support (50 day MVA, 31.95 and the 18 day MVA just cents lower) on low volume (3.6 million; avg. 5.4 million), after pulling off the April high of 40.95 over the last several days. Looking for the move back up from here, for an initial target of $45-47.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on rising volume. Stop loss: 30 (just below 18 day MVA and previous intraday low). Breakout: Over 40.95, on volume of 4.8 million or better. Stop loss: 38.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (EUI GZ). Breakout: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (EUI GG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/onis.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Some of the new leaders have fallen under the pressure of the bear market and can no longer be considered top picks for such investments (LLL, NATI, ESRX). We continue to look to stocks like ACS, CPN, SGR, NVDA and BRKS as the new leaders. With this in mind, we must reiterate that while we are looking for any of these stocks to once again yield long-term investments when the markets turns, for now the plays for moves up in such stocks should be considered largely short-term. We must focus on the stocks that are performing best in a down market as they tend to help lead when the market turns back up.
New Leaders: CPN, SGR, ESRX, NATI, LLL, ACS, NVDA, BRKS
Previous Leaders: ADBE, AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS, SCMR, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
NVDA (Nvidia--$79.00; +5.25; optionable (RVU): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Held at the 18 day MVA (73.52) Thursday, exhibiting its strength by not breaking the support on stronger selling volume. Friday the stock bounced back up to the 10 day MVA (76.67) then added over 3 points before ending the day. Volume, however, was much lower (3.8 million; avg. 4.4 million). Look for support at the 10 or 18 day MVAs (76.67 and 73.52, resp.) on a pullback if the market delays a stronger rally of which this leader will likely take advantage. Initial target: April high of 90 (short term; if it makes it, we will let it run).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on stronger volume. Stop loss: 73 (just below the pivot point). Pullback: On a move up from the 18 day MVA (73.52) on stronger volume. Stop loss: 73.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or June $70 or $75 calls to buy (RVU FN or FO). Pullback: Stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (RVU FN). Next month out for options is September.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
Previous Leaders:
BRCD (Brocade--$35.62; +1.86; optionable (UBF): Computer Hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: Up off the April low of 16.75 and currently consolidating below the 50 day MVA (37.46) in a small ascending wedge pattern. Volume declined appropriately in the pattern, dropping Friday to 8 million (avg. 15.8 million), the stock moving up to show a tight doji. Pattern high is 39.30; looking for a breakout that will take the stock over the 50 day MVA resistance. Money flow has really come on since mid-month, and buying looks good. It is a more aggressive play, but BRCD has been showing some strength. Initial target: $50.
BUY POINT: 39.43, on volume of 21 million or better. Stop loss: Just below the 50 day MVA at 37.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (UBF GF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/brcd.html
EMC (Emc--$39.18; +1.89; optionable (EMC): Computer Hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emc.html
STATUS: Really like the way volume has dropped off below average over the last several days (down Friday to 11.8 million; avg. 21.4 million). The stock pulled back during that time from the April high of 45.96, hit when EMC broke over its 50 day MVA on strong volume. Currently, price is bouncing slightly between that resistance (50 day at 40.69) and the 10 and 18 day MVAs (37.73 and 36.53, respectively). Looking for a move over the resistance in a strong rally. Money flow is coming off the floor since the first of the month. Another stock that needs a definitive move in the Nasdaq to get it going, but when it does it can climb fast. Initial target: $50.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 41 on volume of 16 million or better. Stop loss: just below the 50 day MVA at 39.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (EMC GG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/emc.html
SEBL (Siebel--$45.70; +4.17; optionable (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: Not a shabby gain despite the gap up to the opening price of 43.70. Volume was stronger at the end of the day (17.3 million; avg. 17.8 million), pushing the stock up to the closing price (and a high of 45.75). In a stronger and continued rally, look for a move over the April high of 47.80. Stop losses can help preserve gains, or look for support at the 50 day MVA on a pullback (40.42). SEBL broke back over the 50 day MVA 7 days ago, and began a move up from a pullback to that support Wednesday. Target: $53-55.
BUY POINT: Over 47.80, on volume of 24 million or better. Stop loss: 44.44.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $40 calls to buy (SGW HH). Better delta than August $45 options.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sebl.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have added some new stocks to this portfolio: LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI and THQI. We like the patterns and their earnings numbers, and they are holding up in this market. The currently existing members (EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST) are on a watchlist we will continue to monitor for recovery when the market finally emerges from the bear market. TQNT and GMST were covered earlier this week and are showing improvement.
THQI (Thq Inc--$37.50; +0.27; optionable (QHI): Multimedia & Graphic Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: The stock's been stair-stepping up the 18 day MVA (37.35), popping up from that support level each time it has pulled back into it. THQI broke out of its base March 27 then inched up to another all-time closing high 3 weeks later (39.95), and since has pulled back to the support again. Volume was higher on the slight move up from below the 18 day MVA (364,600; avg. 487,772). Look for a hold at the support for the move back up; most of the gains will be made on a move up from here. Target: $43.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued rising volume. Stop loss: 34.94.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $30 calls to buy (QHI FF); next month out is September.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/thqi.html
LOW (Lowe's Cos--$62.10; +3.80; optionable (LOW): Home Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Retail stocks rallied, and LOW joined in, gapping up and bounding up on strong volume (6.2 million; avg. 3.5 million). Breakaway gaps such as this are very bullish. The stock closed at resistance (62.25-62.47), but the March high is the price to beat (handle high). LOW pulled back from the March high of 64.59 in a handle to its 11-month cup base, which corrected back to an April low of 52.30. The stock then surged back over its MVAs on strong volume 8 days ago, as it did today after a week of pullback action. Target on a breakout: $73-74.
BUY POINT: 64.72, on volume of 5.2 million or better. Stop loss: 59.94.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (LOW GK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/low.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
Good Investing!
Jon Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
top stock pick
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