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us stock market, stock option
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: BLTI; BPOP; EPIC; FLSH; HIL; JPM; LEXR; MER; MERQ; NWK
Best Plays:
1) SRNA: Forming up very nicely.
2) SYMC: Solid reverse head and shoulders.
3) ADVP: Very nice 18 day MVA test.
4) BCR: Nice short term MVA test.
5) MER: Ready for the breakout as financials look strong.
6) NSCN: Lower volume day of rest.
7) WSTC: Just needs some volume.
8) BRL: Looking weak still
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/28/2003
ORCL (Oracle--$13.26; +0.61; optionable): Business system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orcl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This is one of those large cap names from the Nasdaq glory days. It is rare that a former high flier ever recaptures its prior form. All that said, ORCL has formed a solid 5-month base sporting strong 7 to 3 accumulation (7 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume). It tried to make a breakout two weeks back, but that is when the market got a bit choppy. ORCL used that to form a handle, pulling back to the 50 day MVA (12) on lower volume. Tuesday ORCL started up off that support on some rising volume, and then Wednesday ORCL broke out on very strong trade. It may not regain its former glory, but it can make us some money from this solid pattern.
Volume: 78.128M Avg Volume: 39.443M
BUY POINT: $13.48 Volume=59M Target=$16.25 Stop=$12.54
POSITION: ORQ IV - Sept. $12.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/orcl.html
Play Date: 05/28/2003
SRNA (Serena Software--$19.5; +0.47; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srna.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. SRNA is in the right shoulder of a 6-month base showing solid 7 to 2 accumulation (7 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). The right shoulder has used the 18 day MVA (18.48) as support. Money flow is excellent, moving up ahead of the stock price. Relative strength is solid as well, looking to make a breakout with the stock. A breakout from this pattern will put SRNA at a 52-week high and clear a lot of resistance. 24.45 is our first target, but we will let it run to 27.50, the double top point from early 2002, if it will.
Volume: 1.126M Avg Volume: 467.318K
BUY POINT: $20.35 Volume=700K Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.78
POSITION: NHU HD - Aug. $20c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/srna.html
Play Date: 05/28/2003
SYMC (Symantec--$47.41; +0.69; optionable): Internet security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. SYMC was an early leader off the October lows, breaking out of a 9-month cup with handle base to help the move along. It rallied up to 48 and then ran into some trouble with all the security software stocks. it broke the 50 day MVA at 44 but used the 200 day MVA (40.75) as the support for the 'head.' It has formed a 4.5 month base showing solid 5 to 2 accumulation. It just finished testing the 50 day MVA to form the right shoulder, and Wednesday after gapping lower SYMC rallied for a gain on an excellent above average volume surge. Looking for a breakout to step in. Really like these base-on-base patterns.
Volume: 8.334M Avg Volume: 6.027M
BUY POINT: $48.12 Volume=8.2M Target=$55.35 Stop=$44.75
POSITION: SYQ JI - Oct. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/symc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/19/2003
ADPT (Adaptec--$7.90; -0.01; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adpt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. ADPT broke out of its 4-month base in early May, and has just come off of a test that held the 18 day (7.35) on the low. Tuesday it was up on a strong volume surge as the market shot higher. Wednesday ADPT gapped higher to 8 but faded back to flat on lower, average volume. Looking for another test of 7.75ish, and then on a move higher on rising volume that is an entry point. Accumulation in its 4.5 month cup with handle base is excellent at 6 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is excellent.
Volume: 676.571K Avg Volume: 678.863K
BUY POINT: New: Test of 7.75, then $7.88 on the bounce. Volume=825K Target=$9.48 Stop=$7.33
POSITION: APQ JU - Oct. $7.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adpt.html
Play Date: 05/20/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$32.75; -0.25; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After running up to the May 2002 high (34) two weeks back, ADVP has fallen back to test the 18 day MVA (32.25). It started back up with a good volume surge late last week but could not complete the move. It is still in the process of consolidating the run from 25 to 34, and a bit more time given the lower volume consolidation along the 18 day is good action. What we look for here is a strong volume surge and a move that is holding heading into the close. That is when we move in with new positions.
Volume: 739.031K Avg Volume: 1.545M
BUY POINT: $32.85 Volume=2M Target=$39.22 Stop=$31.92
POSITION: QVD IF - Sept. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/advp.html
Play Date: 05/21/2003
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$49.22; -0.52; optionable): Independent natural gas & oil
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. APC blasted off on Greenspans comments before Congress on natural gas. It has followed up that move with a weak climb to 50. Wednesday it started to bounce back from that level on lower volume. That is what it needs to do after this move. We would like for it to form a nice handle here with a lower volume pullback toward 48.50 to form up the handle and set the stage for a breakout. Still, APC has shown it can run, so if it does make the breakout without a handle we will look at opening positions.
Volume: 1.84M Avg Volume: 2.112M
BUY POINT: $49.75 Volume=3M Target=$56.88 Stop=$47.96
POSITION: APC HW - Aug. $47.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/apc.html
Play Date: 05/10/2003
BCR (C.R. Bard--$67.22; -0.79; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a stellar, strong volume breakout, BCR is making a nice, orderly pullback to test the 10 day MVA (66.87). Strong stocks periodically test their short term MVA in the process of running higher after a breakout. This is the second test on this breakout; stocks typically test their short term MVA 4 to 5 times before testing lower. That leaves plenty of upside on this move.
Volume: 373.7K Avg Volume: 374.772K
BUY POINT: New: 68.06 (orig. $64.40) Volume=477K Target=$73.75 Stop=$65.75
POSITION: BCR JM - Oct. $65c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcr.html
Play Date: 05/22/2003
LGTO (Legato Systems--$7; +0.01; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lgto.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. LGTO was in the process of continuing its breakout Wednesday when it hit 7.40 on the high and then gave the move back. This follows three solid sessions where LGTO made the breakout and was looking for more on a move over 7. With the solid accumulation and money flow, it appears as if LGTO just got caught in the late afternoon selling. It is still solid and we are looking for a resumption of the move.
Volume: 2.787M Avg Volume: 1.891M
BUY POINT: $7.06 Volume=2M Target=$8.75 Stop=$6.57
POSITION: EQN IA - Sept. $7.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lgto.html
Play Date: 04/28/2003
MER (Merrill Lynch--$42.92; +0.92; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mer.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still very solid as MER posted another solid upside session on rising though still below average volume. It is a very solid base with 7 to 4 accumulation and money flow. Financials are starting to lead, a good sign for the market and for MER
Volume: 5.833M Avg Volume: 6.056M
BUY POINT: $43.12 Volume=7.5M Target=$49.55 Stop=$40.1
POSITION: MER JV - Oct. $42.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mer.html
Play Date: 05/03/2003
NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences--$49.62; -1.57; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbix.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NBIX broke higher Tuesday on excellent volume, but then faded Wednesday Wednesday as volume backed off. We don't like reversals on the heels of breakouts, but biotech had a rougher session overall, and the turn back was on lower volume. We are thus looking for NBIX to hold the breakout, using the solid accumulation and money flow to send it back higher.
Volume: 528.434K Avg Volume: 382.909K
BUY POINT: New: $50.45 (orig. $48.20) Volume=600K Target=$54.25 Stop=$47.31
POSITION: UOT HI - Aug. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nbix.html
Play Date: 05/21/2003
NCN (NCE Petrofund--$8.19; +0.01; no options): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NCN is in a sector that is starting to take on some leadership, and it is in a good pattern to boot, workign on the handle to a 11-week cup base. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation and strong money flow are setting the stage for a breakout. All we do is sit back and let it make the move.
Volume: 316.9K Avg Volume: 190.363K
BUY POINT: $8.38 Volume=254K Target=$10 Stop=$7.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncn.html
Play Date: 04/23/2003
NSCN (Netscreen Technologies--$22.37; -0.38; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nscn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Strong run up off the 10 day MVA (21.90) Tuesday as volume moved back above average. In the Wednesday session it gave part of the move back but volume contracted. Looks as if that was a market related pullback, and we are looking for NSCN, a leader off the July low, to start back up on a strong shot of volume.
Volume: 1.649M Avg Volume: 1.773M
BUY POINT: New: $22.88 (orig. $21.17) Volume=2.5M Target=$25.42 Stop=$20.94
POSITION: QKN ID - Sept. $20c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nscn.html
Play Date: 04/28/2003
STK (Storage Technology--$25.85; +0.45; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. STK continues to work its 5-month cup with handle base, forming a handle the past two weeks, holding the 18 day MVA (25.12) as it did. Lower volume during the handle, and now STK is moving higher on rising, average volume. We are looking from a breakout as data storage is proving to be a solid tech sector.
Volume: 645.9K Avg Volume: 683.545K
BUY POINT: $26.55 Volume=1M Target=$31 Stop=$25
POSITION: STK IX - Sept. $22.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stk.html
Play Date: 05/24/2003
WSTC (West Corp.--$25.23; +0.69; optionable): Business management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wstc.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. WSTC started the move up off the 18 day MVA test Wednesday though volume was not what we wanted to see. This is WTSC's second test of the 18 day MVA, leaving WSTC plenty of upside room to run after breakoing out of its 3-month base to start the year. Looking for some more volume to take new positions.
Volume: 151.083K Avg Volume: 215.045K
BUY POINT: New: $25.55 (orig. $25.20) Volume=215K Target=$28 Stop=$23.82
POSITION: HUD GX - July $22.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wstc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/24/2003
BRL (Barr Labs--$52.88; -0.42; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Put. BRL continues to struggle below the 50 day MVA (54), failing again to take out that level Wednesday as it gapped to the 10 day MVA (53.55) and closed near the session low. Unfortunately volume did not jump up on the selling to indicate the sellers were moving in big. Still want to see BRL break below recent support at 52 to enter positions, and we want to see volume on that fall.
Volume: 555K Avg Volume: 976.863K
BUY POINT: $51.94 Volume=1.4M Target=$48.06 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: IOB TY - Aug. $53.38p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brl.html
Play Date: 05/19/2003
PRX (Pharmaceutical Resources--$39.74; +0.38; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prx.html
STATUS: Put. PRX continues to struggle below the 50 day MVA, tapping at that level on the high 39.98, and managing a small gain on lower, below average volume. PRX is not making a hard drop, but it is hanging around in a bad neighborhood. Looking for a drop on rising volume.
Volume: 393.4K Avg Volume: 743.454K
BUY POINT: New: $38.88 (orig. $37.85) Volume=700K Target=$34.52 Stop=$39.75
POSITION: PRX SH - July $40p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prx.html
Play Date: 05/24/2003
PSUN (Pacific Sunwear--$21.43; +0.76; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psun.html
STATUS: Put. PSUN fell through the 50 day MVA (21.40) 7 sessions back, dropping on strong volume. It has tried to run back over the 50 day MVA, edging over it on the close though fell back from the intraday high (21.80). Volume was lower though still slightly above average. We need to see PSUN roll back down on much stronger volume.
Volume: 1.566M Avg Volume: 1.377M
BUY POINT: $20.55 Volume=1.7M Target=$18 Stop=$21.68
POSITION: PVQ UX - Sept. $$22.50p (-59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/psun.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock option
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