stock recommendation, stock option

Begin part 2 of 2

THE PLAYS

Good movers Wednesday: AXP; BLTI; C; RGEN; STX; XMSR

Wednesday Plays:
JCOM: Started to run hard but gave it back and more buy the close.
LUV: Took a breather on below average volume after the strong move.
C: Strong volume move; finally.

Best Plays:
1) TXN: Nice volume as it heads for a breakout.
2) CNQR: Very nice breakout test.

New Plays:

Upside:

Play Date: 05/10/2003
TXN (Texas Instruments--$20.17; +0.89; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TXN is working through a 6-month base showing excellent 9 to 2 accumulation. TXN looked ready for a breakout in late April or early May, but the market turned a bit choppy and it fell back. The test was solid, however, falling back to test the 50 day MVA (18.48) as it formed a nice, 20-week handle. Tuesday TXN started to move off the 50 day as volume swelled. Wednesday it jumped up close to a breakout on excellent volume. We are looking to take some positions on a breakout, and then on a test of the breakout move that is successful, move in with more positions. The reason we are doing this is that it has made two solid moves and after another strong surge it may come back to test the breakout. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't, but after a strong move up leading into the breakout, the odds favor a test. We take the initial position, however, just to be sure.
Volume: 17.861M Avg Volume: 11.121M
BUY POINT: $20.48 Volume=16M Target=$24.55 Stop=$18.94
POSITION: TXN JD - Oct. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/txn.html

Play Date: 05/28/2003
UNT (Unit Corp.--$21.85; -0.23; optionable): Oil & gas drilling services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Not a huge mover, but steady, and steadily building on a solid foundation. It is currently working on a 3-month base showing excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. UNT is currently starting a handle right at the early March high that started the pattern. Volume is backing off and we want to see a few more sessions of a lateral move to complete the handle. Still, UNT could break higher from here without much warning, so we are going to be ready. Money flow is solid to match the outstanding accumulation.
Volume: 128.8K Avg Volume: 244K
BUY POINT: $22.25 Volume=366K Target=$26.75 Stop=$20.84
POSITION: UNT ID - Sept. $20c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/unt.html

Continuing plays that look good:

Play Date: 04/22/2003
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$6.78; -0.1; no options): Technical & system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CNQR finally yielded the breakout Friday, and is now testing that breakout on lower volume. It may not be much of a test of, however, as CNQR showed a tight doji Wednesday on rising, above average volume. That indicates sellers stepping back in to support the breakout. A breakout test is a great place to enter as it 'proves up' the breakout.
Volume: 415.871K Avg Volume: 233.863K
BUY POINT: New: 6.88 (orig. $6.75). May test 6.50 at the 10 day MVA first. Volume=250K Target=$8.12 Stop=$6.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cnqr.html

Play Date: 05/22/2003
VSTA (Vista Care--$22.76; -0.45; no options): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsta.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. VSTA has faded back to to the 18 day MVA on the Wednesday low (22.50), showing a doji. This has been a very orderly pullback, and we are lookig for a higher volume break higher over 23 for new positions.
Volume: 225.71K Avg Volume: 233.5K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $23.35; breakout: $24.15 Volume=156K Target=$27.95 Stop=$22.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vsta.html

MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.

CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:

Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop

ABTL 05/21 Test BO 5.4 +0.08 5.25 6.94 326K 371K 4.88
Current. Waffling some under 5.50 after the strong move off the 10 day last week.

ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 10.55 -0.22 9.64 11.65 918K 521K 9.22
Current. Gave back some of the move but on lower volume.

AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 5.08 +0.05 4.45 5.45 637K 244K 4.21
Current. Showing a doji after a strong move off the 10 day MVA. Still very solid.

AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 12.36 +0.23 10.95 13.22 937K 417K 10.25
Current. Another solid, above average volume move on the breakout.

AMZN 05/03 BO 34.86 +0.01 30.3 35.45 9.1M 12M 30.88
Current. Took a breather.

AVID 05/22 Flat 33.23 +2.04 29.06 34.78 1.4M 750K 27.15
Buy Not Issued. Not giving a test yet as it races higher. Arrrrgh.

AXP 05/24 Test BO 41.63 +0.91 40.75 46.45 6.5M 6M 38.85
Current. Nice volume move.

BCE 04/05 Cup 21.5 -0.03 19.9 23.75 250K 550K 20.55
Current. Doji on low volume after a super run. May need a rest now, but still solid in the uptrend.

BLTI 02/10 Test BO 13.85 +0.54 7.2 13.45 668K 300K 11.78
Current. Nice run higher yet again.

BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 23.02 -0.7 19.2 22.94 17M 15M 20.12
Current. After a strong move BCRM faded back some.

C 04/18 Rv H&S 41.14 +0.96 41.25 48.55 24M 23M 38.55
Current. Nice volume move as financials outperform still, a
very positive sign.

CELG 05/14 A Wedge 32.3 -1.17 30.98 37.12 3.7M 1.8M 29.04
Current. Gapped higher but then sold back after a very strong and volatile move Tuesday.

CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.78 -0.1 6.75 8.12 416K 250K 6.12
Current. Nice breakout test.

CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 33.37 -0.6 32 38 1M 1.3M 32.05
Current. Coming back to test the 10 day MVA though it is showing more volume than we would want to see. Neds to hold in this area.

CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 21.58 +0.46 14.12 17.25 3.8M 5.3M 18.92
Current. Another move higher on solid volume.

DCLK 04/26 Test BO 10.08 +0.22 9.04 11.35 1.5M 1.9M 9.11
Current. New recent high as volume climbs more.

DKS 03/18 DB hdl 29.41 +0.01 23.81 28.42 367K 225K 28.35
Current. Still taking a breather at the 10 day MVA.

DKS 02/19 DB hdl 29.41 +0.01 22.75 27.35 367K 225K 28.35
Current.

DRIV 05/08 Test BO 18.79 -0.3 17.62 20.95 793K 1.4M 16.96
Current. Stalling some again at 19. Needs to get over this level.

EBAY 12/12 Test 18 101.18 -1.87 69.45 92 8.8M 12M 94.92
Current. Tested the big Tuesday move on lower volume.

EBAY 10/15 Test 50 101.18 -1.87 62.45 92 8.8M 12M 94.92
Current.

FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 14.79 -0.04 10.9 13.15 3M 4.4M 13.05
Current. Still working in the solid uptrend over the 10 day MVA.

FFIV 05/21 Test 18 17.02 +0.22 15.62 18.55 698K 750K 15.23
Current. Tried to extend the move but was pushed back to close fractionally higher.

FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 17.02 +0.22 15.34 18.32 698K 750K 15.23
Current.

FLSH 05/22 Test BO 11.35 +0.26 10.55 12.75 294K 195K 9.69
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA on the solid breakout.

FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 11.35 +0.26 9.2 10.96 294K 195K 9.69
Current.

GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 48.02 -0.28 22.34 37.45 676K 198K 44.44
Current. Gapped higher but gave the move back on lower volume.

HAS 04/12 Test BO 15.64 -0.2 14.88 17.88 750K 1.2M 15.55
Current. Stalling at the 18 day MVA after moving up off the 50 day. Still okay, but needs to recover with some more volume.

HAS 03/31 Test BO 15.64 -0.2 14.65 17 750K 1.2M 15.35
Current.

IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 87.57 -0.12 0 0 6.5M 14M 0

IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 35.79 -0.33 0 0 159K 375K 36

ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 17.02 -0.59 11.6 15.32 792K 293K 15.3
Current. Reversed on high volume Wednesday. Need to be careful with any test of 16.

JCOM 05/27 Cup hdl 35.01 -1.34 38.12 45.55 2.9M 1M 34.94
Current. Strong volume breakout to a new high.

JNPR 05/22 Flat 13.9 +0.01 12.9 15.55 43M 17M 11.94
Current. Strong Tuesday move and took a breather Wednesday. Volume surged as JNPR announces a convertible offering.

JNPR 04/15 Flat 13.9 +0.01 10.6 13.42 43M 17M 11.94
Current.

LUV 05/27 Test 50 15.89 -0.21 16.45 20.45 2.2M 3.6M 15.35
Buy Not Hit. Took a breather on lower volume.

MAT 05/20 Put 21.03 -0.48 21.3 19.45 3.4M 2.5M 21.95
Current. Tanking on above average volume.

MDCO 05/10 Test 18 22.84 -0.3 21.25 25.48 791K 825K 20.45
Current. Strong move showing some stalling, but still solid.

MME 04/30 BO 47.42 -0.26 45.65 54.45 521K 634K 45.38
Current. Nice lateral move over the 10 day MVA an below 48.

MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.41 -0.38 26.62 30 92M 57M 25.55

NTES 04/01 Cup 31.65 -0.68 17 27 2.7M 1M 25.38
Current. Gapped higher but faded back. Still solid.

NVDA 05/08 Test BO 22.66 -0.06 22.62 27 10M 11M 20.05
Current. Took a day of rest after the strong move.

OSI 05/24 Put 36.85 +0.55 35.8 33 596K 897K 36.85
Buy Not Hit.

OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 34.2 +0.6 19.05 31 1.5M 1.2M 28.25
Current. Strong move the past week but gapped higher with a tombstone doji on rising volume. Signals a pullback, but still in a great uptrend.

PLB 05/19 Put 43.16 +0.87 41.62 39.12 193K 275K 42.88
Buy Not Issued.

QCOM 04/16 Put 31.39 -0.33 32.56 29 8.9M 16M 31.35

QLGC 05/17 Test BO 47.84 +0.04 46.78 54 6.2M 8M 44.65
Buy Not Issued. Trying to make a clean break over 48.

QLGC 03/15 Test BO 47.84 +0.04 38.85 45 6.2M 11M 44.24
Current.

QLGC 11/07 Test BO 47.84 +0.04 41.4 50 6.2M 25M 44.24

QLGC 08/17 CCall 47.84 +0.04 36.48 0 6.2M 12M 44.24
Current.

RCII 01/11 Test BO 65.57 +0.1 0 0 182K 0 62.45

RGEN 04/07 Test 18 6.64 +0.24 4.84 7.1 533K 132K 5.45
Current. Nice volume move as RGEN breaks higher.

RMBS 04/09 A Wedge 17.55 +1.11 17.55 21.45 6.2M 6.8M 15.94
Current. Nice breakout on volume.

SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 15.85 +0.45 12.22 16 465K 696K 14.12
Current. Still in a nice uptrend.

SHRP 05/23 Cup hdl 22.06 +0.21 22.06 26.55 248K 350K 20.52
Buy not issued. Not giving the move we wanted on volume.

SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 8.55 -1.02 7.58 9.55 828K 125K 7.85

SINA 05/22 Cup hdl 15.24 -0.05 14.75 17.75 3.6M 2.5M 13.12
Current. Gapped higher but could not hold it. Still a solid bounce from the 18 day MVA.

SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 15.24 -0.05 9.35 13.45 3.6M 2.5M 12.78
Current.

SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 25.83 +0.17 10.55 21.45 2.2M 800K 21.45
Current. Nice run slowing down some as it continues up the 10 day MVA.

SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 27.47 -1.63 12.25 15.45 727K 110K 26.22
Current. Back to the 10 day MVA on some rising volume as SSYS struggles a bit more here. Needs to hold this area.

STX 05/24 Test BO 14.84 +0.89 13.95 16.75 3.5M 2.9M 12.92
Current. Super break higher on volume.

TEK 05/20 Cup hdl 20.89 +0.24 20.44 24.45 275K 500K 19.42
Current. Another move higher on the breakout.

TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 49.58 +0.08 0 0 2M 5M 0

TLB 05/17 Put 28.01 +0.55 25.95 22.65 216K 375K 27.55
Current. Lower volume move to 200 day MVA. Needs to rollover here.

TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 44.2 +0.78 43.75 52 204K 603K 42.85
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA.

TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 44.2 +0.78 38.6 44.38 204K 577K 42.85
Current.

TXN 05/10 Cup hdl 20.17 +0.89 20.48 24.55 18M 16M 18.94
New.

UNT 05/28 Cup hdl 21.85 -0.23 22.25 26.75 129K 366K 20.84
New.

USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 37.34 +0.24 29.12 33.55 7.8M 8.3M 33.74
Current. Took a lower volume breather after a strong prior 4 sessions.

UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 19.96 -0.42 18.12 21.75 185K 226K 18.48
Current. Turned and gave back some of the move but on very low volume as it holds the breakout.

VIVO 05/07 BO 9.1 -0.6 9.66 11.38 235K 45K 9.15
Current. Getting very wild, testing below the 50 day MVA and then bounding back up. Needs to recover here.

VRTS 08/19 CCall 25.95 -0.13 19.76 20 8.9M 8.5M 23.25
Current.

VSTA 05/22 Test BO 22.76 -0.45 24.15 27.95 226K 156K 22.45
Current.

VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 22.76 -0.45 19.98 23.85 226K 156K 22.45
Current.

WMT 02/05 Put 53.35 +0.85 0 0 11M 8.2M 0
Managed to move up off the 200 day MVA on some better volume though it failed its bid to close over the 50 day.

WWCA 05/22 BO 10.28 +0.38 9.68 13 720K 824K 9

XMSR 04/07 Test BO 11.16 +0.61 6.95 8.42 9.5M 6.5M 9.63
Current. Gapped higher on strong volume.

YHOO 12/11 Test 50 29.9 -0.07 17.32 25 13M 20M 25.92
Current. Took a low volume breather after the strong break higher.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock recommendation
stock option