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stock watch, stock split
Begin Part 2 of 2
TEAM TRADES
BRKS was showing strong volume Thursday and had closed (58.17) just above resistance. Even though it had come off its high, the stock was in position to rally if the market did. We set an alert at 60.
That went off immediately since the stock gapped higher on the open (59.60) and ran to a high of 61.60. It pulled back to 60.61 by 8:54.then ran back up to the previous high, running to 62 then pulling back to 61.50 again. Volume looked pretty good at 157,000 (average was 675,000) on the intraday chart, so we put in a limit order on stock (the options had too few open interests) at 61.
A few minutes after that was done the stock gapped up again and on solid volume (190,000) hit a new high on the day at 62.45. A look at a daily chart indicated potential resistance at 63, so we slid a stop loss in at 55 (8% below the buy point and just above the 10 day MVA). However, at 9:17 the stock took out 63, running to 63.05 on volume of 239,000. After hitting 63.63 it started to pull back, and at that time we took off to handle some errands. Volume was still low and below average at this point, but the Nasdaq was in a rally (if not a strong one), so we didn't worry about that too much, since volume was moving pretty steadily anyway.
Checked back after the market closed, and BRKS had pulled back all the way to 59.60 (just above the morning low of 59.50) just after 11:00 but by the end of the day had climbed back up to close at 61.55. Not a huge gain, but if the stock can hold above the 10 day MVA (and support looks decent at 58), in a rally we are in a good position. Will look at sliding up the stop loss next session.
THE PLAYS:
All prices reflect prices at the close on Friday.
Best Plays: DG (the retailers were flying), HOTT, and RDN broke out, and TGT and WLSN look ready to do the same. COLM, in HOTT's sector, exploded (a best play). LEN and GENZ reached a new all-time closing high Friday. ADVS hit our target and is looking strong, and TFX continued to run up after its test. Looking at some new patterns and breakouts, and several continued plays are continuing to set up well (SONC, EDS).
Best Plays:
1) COLM: A breakaway gap.
2) OMG: A strong breakout.
3) DG: Still a buy.
4) HCC: Has tested its breakout.
5) AMD: Looks strong.
6) EDS: Pattern still looks good.
7) WLSN: Moving on strong volume.
8) TGT: Trying for its breakout.
9) AHAA: At support.
READY TO BREAK TO A NEW HIGH (or just did):
Continued Plays: SRCL is now on a watchlist.
RECN (Rscs Connection--$26.56; +0.56; no options): Aerospace/Defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
STATUS: The stock moved up but volume is low (102,200; avg. 163,681). However, it was stronger on the price rise and the stock moved past the previous day's intraday high (which was hit earlier this month as well 26.55), so we will see what stronger volume can do for it. April high is 29, which remains our initial target.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on volume of 138,000 or better. Stop loss: 24.60 (18 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock.
LEN (Lennar--$44.90; +0.75; optionable (LEN): Materials & construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/len.html
STATUS: After hitting Wednesday's new closing high (44.75), the stock tried a move to 45.99 but couldn't hold it; however, it moved back up and showed a tight doji at the top of its range on Friday, posting a new all-time closing high. Volume was lower but still above average (strong) at 921,100). We will look for a move up from here, or at least back up from the low of 44.17 on a retest of that level. Great money flow and good buying. Target: $49-51.
BUY POINT: Pullback: Up from the 44 range on rising volume. Stop loss: 41.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $40 calls to buy (LEN HH).
BREAKOUTS: We are looking for targets on breakout 10-15% above the buy point, adjusted from the usual bull market 15-20%. WATCHLIST: TFX looks ready for a pullback after breaking out, testing, and running back up. We will put it back on when it looks ready for a play.
New Plays:
COLM (Columbia Sportswr--$64.80; +10.44; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: A strong breakaway gap as earnings came in strong and the stock garnered some upgrades. The move broke the stock to a new all-time closing high, and while we will at times chase breakaway gap moves that are beyond the 5% buy point, this one is a bit extended at a $10 leap. However, a pullback will offer another opportunity for entry points. Money flow shot to new high levels as institutions poured in to support the stock. Relative strength broke out as well. Target: $68-71.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 60. Pullback: On a move back up from the 59-60 range on rising volume. Stop loss: 55 (10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock.
OMG (Om Grp--$55.40; +2.81; no options): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omg.html
STATUS: A strong shot of volume (and an upgrade) added fuel to a 2-day move started at the stock's shorter-term up trendline (connecting Dec/Jan/Feb/April lows). OMG gapped higher on the opening price of 53.40 then shot to a high of 56.50 (volume soared to 434,700; avg. 95,590). Moving sharply up the right side of its 4-month base, the stock can add to the move from here; breakaway gaps on strong volume are quite bullish moves. The high tested resistance at some prices from the start of the base; if the momentum doesn't carry the stock through it, we'll watch for a handle to form. Target on a move over 57: $63-66.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 51.50-51.88 (50 day MVA). Pullback: On a move back up from the 54.50 range on rising volume. Stop loss: 50.50.
POSITION: Stock.
Continued Plays:
AA (Alcoa--$41.99; -0.09; optionable (AA): Metals & Mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aa.html
STATUS: Got the volume we wanted Thursday and the stock came close to the previous all-time closing high of 42.64 (January 2000). Volume dropped back off Friday to 3.4 million (avg. 4 million) with the stock testing on the low (41.50) last Friday's high of 41.40. We will look for a hold at that support for now until the stock can rally back on strong volume to beat that old high. 10 day MVA is at 40.29. Initial target: $46-48.
Outstanding money flow and good buying.
BUY POINT: Pullback: Back up from 41.40 on stronger volume. Stop loss: 38.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $37.50 calls to buy (AA GU).
NVDA (Nvidia--$79.00; +5.25; optionable (RVU): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Held at the 18 day MVA (73.52) Thursday, exhibiting its strength by not breaking the support on stronger selling volume. The stock bounced back up to the 10 day MVA (76.67) then added over 3 points before ending the day. Volume, however, was much lower (3.8 million; avg. 4.4 million). Look for support at the 10 or 18 day MVAs (76.67 and 73.52, resp.) on a pullback if the market delays a stronger rally of which this leader will likely take advantage. Initial target: April high of 90 (short term; if it makes it, we will let it run).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on stronger volume. Stop loss: 73. Pullback: On a move up from the 18 day MVA (73.52) on stronger volume. Stop loss: 68.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or June $70 or $75 calls to buy (RVU FN or FO). Pullback: Stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (RVU FN). Next month out for options is September.
HOTT (Hot Topic--$34.99; +2.57; optionable (UHO): Textiles: Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
STATUS: The retail rally helped this stock, volume rolling in Friday (1.1 million; avg. 580,090) to add fuel to Thursday's incipient move up from support the stock had established near 31 in its test of the breakout. Price shot over resistance (32-33) and hit a new all-time closing high on this strong move (our target as well). The aggressive can look for further upside from here. Relative strength broke out, and money flow is strong. Target: $36-38.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 32.50 Pullback: Up from a test of 32 (or better). Stop loss: 29.80 (18 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $30 calls to buy (UHO HF).
DG (Dollar General--$23.88; +1.13; optionable (DG): Discount Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dg.html
STATUS: Broke out of the ascending wedge-type consolidation the stock formed above its 18 day MVA and upper right side of its base, and cleared the buy point (23.39) and the previous high in the base (23.19). Volume was great at 2.4 million (avg. 1.4 million). DG is moving higher in its larger, 18.5-month base, and on the strength we're seeing (great buying, outstanding money flow and high relative strength), could be a watch for a while. Initial target: $26-27.
BUY POINT: Up to 24.56 on the breakout. Stop loss: 22.06 (10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $17.50 or $20 calls to buy (DG HW or HD).
TESTS OF THE BREAKOUT: Some of these stocks are moving back on low volume to test the breakout. We often take profits on option plays when they start to pullback on the breakout move and then get back in when the stock bounces up off of the breakout point. This second move is where some of the biggest gains are made.
Back on the report:
HCC (Hcc--$28.00; +0.50; no options): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcc.html
STATUS: Tested the 18 day MVA (27.36) and moved back up on stronger, average volume (514,700), The stock broke out of a double-bottom with (a double) handle pattern earlier this month and hit a new 52-week high at 28.95. Look for a continued move up as the stock makes a bid for that previous high. The stock tapped 28.10 on the intraday high, a price hit 5 more times within the last 3 weeks. Target: $32-33.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 28.10 on continued rising volume. Stop loss: 26 (50 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock.
Continued Plays:
SONC (Sonic--$27.74; -0.19; optionable (ZSQ): Gaming
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Continued to consolidate after Wednesday's attempt at a new high, pulling back on decreasing volume (reaching 96,700 Friday; avg. 160,500) and showing a doji. The buy point is 27.14, and the stock's done a good job holding above that in the breakout test; the low tapped at 27.45. The 10 day MVA is at 27.19, so we are safe on a pullback to that support should the stock do so. Buying looks good. Target on a move back over Wednesday's high of 29.25: $32-33.
BUY POINT: Up from here or after a pullback to test 27.19, on rising volume. Stop loss: 25.80.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $25 calls to buy (ZSQ FE; low open interests). Next month out for options is September.
GENZ (Genzyme--$107.51; +2.14; optionable (GZQ):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: The stock ran up the next 2 days after Wednesday's split announcement, posting a new all-time closing high Friday on good volume (3 million; avg. 2.5 million). GENZ pulled off its high of 110, indicating that it may try a pullback here if volume does not continue to climb. Look for support at the 105 level in that event. The lower volume in the market this week prevented a really strong move up after the test of the recent breakout from its cup pattern. Target: $118-123.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong and rising volume. Stop loss: 99.86 (18 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $100 calls to buy (GZQ GT).
WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume. WATCHLIST: SCIO is ready for a pullback.
New Play:
BGEN (Biogen--$64.94; +2.40; optionable (BGQ):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Moved up to resistance in its ascending wedge pattern on slightly stronger volume (1.85 million; avg. 3.3 million). The pattern formed after the stock pulled of the February high of 75 and hit a March low of 52.88. Upper resistance is at the pattern high of 65.81. Money flow looks good. Initial target: $75.
BUY POINT: 65.94, on volume of 4.4 million or better. Stop loss: 61.13 (200 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (BGQ GL).
BASING/TRADING RANGES: Lots of patterns breaking down (a sign of a weakening market. Make sure of the breakout and then set stops just below the pivot point. Follow gains up with trailing stops. WATCHLIST: RDN, MMM, CDWC, LEH, WCOM.
New Play:
AMD (Adv Micro Dev--$30.00; +2.49; optionable (AMD): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amd.html
STATUS: May have made the final break over its long-term down trendline this month, holding nicely above support (the 10 day MVA, 27.22) for the last several days. The stock pulled back the MVA on lower volume, off the earlier April high of 29.51, and bounced back up on stronger volume that broke above average Friday (11.3 million; avg. 8.6 million). Gaining on that move, AMD looks ready to take out the March high of 30.92. Shows great money flow and good buying. Initial target: $35-36.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 27.22 (10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (AMD GE).
Continued Plays:
EDS (Electronic Data--$63.35; +0.95; optionable (EDS): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eds.html
STATUS: In a nice-looking cup with handle pattern that formed after the stock tried to break higher in its lengthy base back in early March. Handle high is now at 66, tapped Thursday when volume shot up on some mild selling, but the stock managed to hold above support at the 62.50 level, and volume dropped back off Friday (2.8 million; avg. 2.7 million). Showing a doji after the low again tested 62.50, the pattern looks firm for now. Target on a breakout: $72-75.
BUY POINT: 66.13, on volume of 4 million or better. Stop loss: 61.67 (10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or June $60 calls to buy (EDS FL). Next month out: September
WLSN (Wilsons Leather--$19.45; +0.66; no options): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlsn.html
STATUS: Made the move back over 19 after we thought we'd lost a nice pattern, on soaring volume at 477,000 (avg. 113,000). The stock retested the 50 day MVA (currently at 18.26) the previous 2 days, but responded as the retailers had a great day. Looking for a breakout over the handle high of 20 (the stock is in an 8-month cup with handle). Initial target: $22-23.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 20.13, on volume of 170,000 or better. Stop loss: 18.26 (50 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock.
TGT (Target--$39.16; +1.61; optionable (TGT): Discount stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tgt.html
STATUS: Gapped a bit higher on the opening price and ran up on stronger volume (4 million; avg. 4.3 million) to close just under the February high of 39.60 (handle high to the 16-month cup with handle). The stock took out some lower resistance, though, and we like the looks of this move. Looking for a breakout from here. Money flow is outstanding. Initial target: $43-45.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 39.73, on volume of 6.4 million or better. Stop loss: 36.70 (18 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (TGT GG).
JNPR (Juniper--$55.02; +3.22; optionable (IUX): Computer Hardware http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: An example of many tech stocks that are consolidating on lower volume beneath their 50 day MVAs and above lower support (in this case the 18 day MVA at 52.64). JNPR fell back below the MVA Monday and sold back mildly to the 18 day MVA, holding Friday on top of the 10 day MVA (54.60) on lower volume (28 million; avg. 31 million). It may consolidate a bit further, but look for a move back up and break of the 50 day MVA (61.52) in a rally. Initial target: $75.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on rising volume in a rally. Stop loss: 51. Break of resistance: Over 62 on volume in the range of 37 million. Stop loss: 57.50.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (IUX GJ).
Trading plays:
New Play:
AHAA (Alpha Ind--$24.36; +1.22; optionable (GAK): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ahaa.html
STATUS: Pulling back to support (10 day MVA, 23.35) on low volume (higher Friday at 876,400; avg. 1.2 million). The stock is off its April high of 28.40, and is showing similar behavior to many other chip stocks. Looking for a move off the support in a rally, for a target of the 200 day MVA (32).
BUY POINT: Up from here on volume of 1.1 million or better. Stop loss: 22.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $20 calls to buy (GAK HD).
Continued Plays:
QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$45.15; +1.20; optionable (QQQ):
STATUS: Mirroring the action of many a tech stock, the index is bouncing in a short range between upper resistance (50 day MVA, 45.96) and lower resistance, in this case the 10 day MVA (tested on the low of 44.24). Volume continues to decrease in similar fashion, too, reach Friday 56.4 million (avg. 79 million) as price bounced back up to close in a tight doji. In a rally look for the move over the 50 day MVA on strong volume. The index hit a monthly high at 51. Initial target: $55-56.
BUY POINT: Over 46 on volume of 76 million or better. Stop loss: 42.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $44 or $45 calls to buy (QQQ FR or FS). Check with broker for deltas (unavailable at the time of this writing).
DISH (Echostar--$30.52; -0.46; optionable (UAB): Consumer durables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dish.html
STATUS: Tried to move up Wednesday from support (50 day MVA, 29.17) but continued low volume thwarted the stock from holding the Thursday high of 32.25. However, volume surged Friday (2.3 million; avg. 2.6 million), and while the stock was hit with a bit of selling, it managed to come up off the low of 29.65 to close over the 10 day MVA (30.34). We will see if the momentum carries over. Earnings are out May 3. This one is taking some patience.
Target: $35 (200 day MVA).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on stronger volume. Stop loss: 28.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $25 calls to buy (UAB FE). Next month out for options is September.
ADVS (Advent Soft--$52.17; +2.18; optionable (UIV): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advs.html
STATUS: Hit close enough to our target of 53 (200 day MVA) on strong volume of 580,000 (avg. 316,227). The stock looks good at this point, moving up the last 2 days on building volume on a breakout move from a ragged cup with handle base. The stock remains a technical buy on this breakout up to 53.24. If it can break over the resistance, we can look at a continued play up to the 60 level. One step at a time. Money flow and buying continue to look better and better.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A buy up to 53.24 on the breakout. Stop loss: 48 (10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (UIV HJ).
Good Investing!
Your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock watch
stock split
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