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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: NVDA; QLGC; SOHU; STX; VRTS
Thursday Plays:
TXN: Started the rally but gave it back.
UNT: Fell back to the 10 day MVA.
CNQR: Still in the good breakout test.
VSTA: Broke below the 18 day MVA on volume.
Best Plays:
1) GNTA: Nice breakout tset.
2) LUV: Nice test of the Tuesday move higher.
3) Continuing: CNQR is still in a nice breakout test. JCOM is holding up well.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/29/2003
GNTA (Genta, Inc.--$11.26; -0.02; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnta.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. GNTA is testing a strong breakout from a 6.5 month base sporting good 7 to 5 accumulation (7 up weeks on rising volume versus 5 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow is excellent, leading the stock to this breakout (along with good news regarding one of its drugs on Tuesday). After the strong move it is testing back on lower volume, holding 11 Thursday with a tight doji. The doji indicates the pullback could be ending though it could test toward the 10 day MVA at 10.45 a bit more. It is being stingy with its gains, a good sign for a successful breakout test.
Volume: 924.812K Avg Volume: 602.5K
BUY POINT: $11.55 Volume=904K Target=$13.95 Stop=$10.74
POSITION: GJU HB - Aug. $10c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gnta.html
Play Date: 05/29/2003
UNTD (United Online--$20.99; -0.38; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/untd.html
STATUS: Flat base. UNTD is moving laterally the past 4 weeks, consolidating the breakout from a 3-month double bottom in March. It rallied up the 18 day MVA to 22, and from there started this lateral trading range. Accumulation in the lateral move is 2 to 0 with very good daily price/volume action. Money flow is outstanding. UNTD was an early leader, starting in February 2002. It has formed two bases along the way, so it is still well within the life cycle of this uptrend. It may take a bit longer to consolidate laterally, but if it holds here at the 18 day MVA (where it closed Thursday), it could follow that money flow right up and rally with the Nasdaq for another good run. Either way we be paitent and let it make the breakout move.
Volume: 1.224M Avg Volume: 1.314M
BUY POINT: $22.08 Volume=2M Target=$26.66 Stop=$20.88
POSITION: QAB ID - Sept. $20c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/untd.html
Continuing plays that look good:
Play Date: 05/27/2003
LUV (Southwest Airlines--$15.86; -0.03; optionable): Regional airline
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the handle to its 6-month base, LUV bounced off the 50 day MVA (15.23) Tuesday on strong volume and has spent the last two sessions moving laterally over the 18 day MVA on below average volume. That is good action considering the market as LUV holds up well in its base. Being patient and letting LUV make the breakout for us.
Volume: 1.997M Avg Volume: 2.329M
BUY POINT: $16.45 Volume=3.6M Target=$20.45 Stop=$15.35
POSITION: LUV IC - Sept. $15c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/luv.html
Play Date: 04/30/2003
MME (Mid-Atlantic Medical--$47.62; +0.2; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mme.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MME continues to move up the 10 day MVA (47.10) after the late April breakout from its 6-month base. It has spent the past two weeks moving laterally below 48 and above the 10 day MVA in a very tight pattern. Volume started back up Wednesday and Thursday, moving up to average. We like this flat, lateral move; it indicates pressure is building. The rising volume indicates something is getting ready to break. We want to move in on the next leg higher.
Volume: 468.2K Avg Volume: 489.045K
BUY POINT: New: $48.12 (orig. $45.65) Volume=634K Target=$54.45 Stop=$45.38
POSITION: MME II - Sept. $45c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mme.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 87.36 -0.21 0 0 6.9M 14M 0
Holding the 10 day MVA after the big move up off the 50 day MVA Tuesday.
KLAC 01/11 Test BO 44.3 +2.17 0 0 16M 0 0
Super volume as it surged up off the 50 day MVA and over the May high.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABTL 05/21 Test BO 5.47 +0.07 5.25 6.94 333K 371K 4.88
Current. Still moving well over the 10 day MVA.
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 10.37 -0.18 9.64 11.65 678K 521K 9.22
Current. Nice surge and now testing back toward the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 4.81 -0.27 4.45 5.45 558K 244K 4.21
Current. Still over the 10 day MVA though testing back Thursday to tap that level.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 12 -0.36 10.95 13.22 549K 417K 10.25
Current. Fell back after a strong move on lower volume.
AMZN 05/03 BO 35.55 +0.69 30.3 35.45 9.4M 12M 30.88
Current. Still moving higher on rising volume.
AVID 05/22 Flat 33.24 +0.01 29.06 34.78 1.5M 750K 27.15
Buy Not Issued. Great surge, now showing a doji. Need a test toward 30 to get in.
AXP 05/24 Test BO 41.03 -0.6 40.75 46.45 7.5M 6M 38.85
Current. Strong move turned back some Thursday as AXP sold back to tap the 10 day MVA on even stronger above average volume. Needs to hold over 40.
BCE 04/05 Cup 21.75 +0.25 19.9 23.75 575K 550K 20.55
Current. Moving very well on strong volume.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 14 +0.15 7.2 13.45 505K 300K 11.78
Current. Continues the move up the 10 day MVA but volume is backing off.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 23.53 +0.51 19.2 22.94 14M 15M 20.12
Current. Solid action still.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 40.77 -0.37 41.25 48.55 20M 23M 38.55
Current. Gave back some of the move on lower volume.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 30.4 -1.9 30.98 37.12 6.9M 1.8M 29.04
Current. Gapped down to the 18 day MVA on rising volume as the news of the convertible offering is impacting it more. Needs to hold here.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.77 -0.01 6.75 8.12 164K 250K 6.12
Current. Nice, orderly test still underway.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 32.9 -0.47 32 38 1.2M 1.3M 32.05
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA. Too much volume. This is where it needs to hold.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 22.27 +0.69 14.12 17.25 3.8M 5.3M 18.92
Current. Still rising.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 10.06 -0.02 9.04 11.35 1.4M 1.9M 9.11
Current. Trying to get over 10.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 29.28 -0.13 23.81 28.42 254K 225K 28.35
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA on lower and lower volume.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 29.28 -0.13 22.75 27.35 254K 225K 28.35
Current.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 19.36 +0.56 17.62 20.95 1.3M 1.4M 16.96
Current. Nice move higher on volume.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 100.15 -1.03 69.45 92 6.7M 12M 94.92
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 100.15 -1.03 62.45 92 6.7M 12M 94.92
Current.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 15.1 +0.31 10.9 13.15 2.9M 4.4M 13.05
Current. What a nice move up the 10 day MVA.
FFIV 05/21 Test 18 17.27 +0.25 15.62 18.55 521K 750K 15.23
Current. Still working higher, trying to get clear from resistance at 17.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 17.27 +0.25 15.34 18.32 521K 750K 15.23
Current.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 11.14 -0.21 10.55 12.75 463K 195K 9.69
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 11.14 -0.21 9.2 10.96 463K 195K 9.69
Current.
GNTA 05/29 Test BO 11.26 -0.02 11.55 13.95 925K 904K 10.74
New.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 46.95 -1.07 22.34 37.45 283K 198K 44.44
Current. Still working to hold over the 10 day MVA.
GSPN 05/24 Test BO 7.46 -0.07 7.42 10 4.6M 2.8M 6.9
Current. Another doji at 7.50 as it tries to hold the move.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 16 +0.36 14.88 17.88 1M 1.2M 15.55
Current. Getting some volume as HAS rallies up to 16.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 16 +0.36 14.65 17 1M 1.2M 15.35
Current.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 87.36 -0.21 0 0 6.9M 14M 0
Holding the 10 day MVA after the big move up off the 50 day MVA Tuesday.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 35.23 -0.56 0 0 225K 375K 36
Breaking below the 50 day MVA.
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 16.35 -0.67 11.6 15.32 250K 293K 15.3
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
JCOM 05/27 Cup hdl 35.8 +0.79 38.12 45.55 786K 1M 34.94
Current. Held up well after the Wednesday reversal. Now it nees another break over 36 that holds.
JNPR 05/22 Flat 13.66 -0.24 12.9 15.55 20M 17M 11.94
Current. Still trying to get over 14.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 13.66 -0.24 10.6 13.42 20M 17M 11.94
Current.
KLAC 01/11 Test BO 44.3 +2.17 0 0 16M 0 0
Super volume as it surged up off the 50 day MVA and over the May high.
LUV 05/27 Test 50 15.86 -0.03 16.45 20.45 2M 3.6M 15.35
Buy Not Hit.
MAT 05/20 Put 21.11 +0.08 21.3 19.45 3.6M 2.5M 21.95
Current. Was starting to tank Wednesday but found some footing Thursday.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 23 +0.16 21.25 25.48 564K 825K 20.45
Current.
MME 04/30 BO 47.62 +0.2 45.65 54.45 468K 634K 45.38
Current.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.4 -0.01 26.62 30 75M 57M 25.55
NTES 04/01 Cup 32.55 +0.9 17 27 1.6M 1M 25.38
Current. Still holding up on the nice break higher.
NVDA 05/08 Test BO 24.21 +1.55 22.62 27 19M 11M 20.05
Current. Nice volume surge.
OSI 05/24 Put 36.9 +0.05 35.8 33 775K 897K 36.85
Buy Not Hit.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 34.84 +0.64 19.05 31 1M 1.2M 28.25
Current. Still working higher.
PLB 05/19 Put 43.96 +0.8 41.62 39.12 222K 275K 42.88
Buy Not Issued.
QCOM 04/16 Put 32.5 +1.27 32.56 29 19M 16M 31.35
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 49.35 +1.52 46.78 54 6.9M 8M 44.65
Buy Not Issued.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 49.35 +1.52 38.85 45 6.9M 11M 44.24
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 49.35 +1.52 41.4 50 6.9M 25M 44.24
QLGC 08/17 CCall 49.35 +1.52 36.48 0 6.9M 12M 44.24
Current.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 65.47 -0.1 0 0 162K 0 62.45
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 6.65 +0.01 4.84 7.1 280K 132K 5.45
Current. Still working higher over the 10 day MVA.
RMBS 04/09 A Wedge 17.49 -0.06 17.55 21.45 1.9M 6.8M 15.94
Current. Took a day off after the big gap higher.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 15.85 0 12.22 16 340K 696K 14.12
Current. Doji may indicate a pullback toward the 10 day MVA, but still a great uptrend.
SHRP 05/23 Cup hdl 21.9 -0.16 22.06 26.55 204K 350K 20.52
Buy Not Issued.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 9.28 +0.73 7.58 9.55 574K 125K 7.85
SINA 05/22 Cup hdl 15.47 +0.23 14.75 17.75 3.6M 2.5M 13.12
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA though stalling the past two sessions.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 15.47 +0.23 9.35 13.45 3.6M 2.5M 12.78
Current.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 27.42 +1.59 10.55 21.45 2.8M 800K 21.45
Current. One of the best movers, still rallying hard above the 10 day MVA.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 26.3 -1.17 12.25 15.45 655K 110K 26.22
Exited. Exited as very volatile and was selling below the 18
day MVA again.
STX 05/24 Test BO 15.15 +0.31 13.95 16.75 5.1M 2.9M 12.92
Current. another strong move, but gave most of it back as the market pulled back.
TEK 05/20 Cup hdl 20.91 +0.02 20.44 24.45 446K 500K 19.42
Current.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 49.9 +0.32 0 0 2.3M 5M 0
TLB 05/17 Put 27.73 -0.18 25.95 22.65 196K 375K 27.55
Current. Stalling at the 200 day MVA. Needs to start the fall back down.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 44.55 +0.35 43.75 52 191K 603K 42.85
Current. Trying to make the next move but not getting the volume.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 44.55 +0.35 38.6 44.38 191K 577K 42.85
Current.
TXN 05/10 Cup hdl 20.24 +0.07 20.85 24.75 16M 16M 19.39
Current. Rallied well early and then turned around and gave
it back as the market pulled back.
UNT 05/28 Cup hdl 21.61 -0.24 22.25 26.75 172K 366K 20.84
Buy Not Hit.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 20.99 -0.38 22.08 26.66 1.2M 2M 20.88
New.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 37.07 -0.27 29.12 33.55 8.7M 8.3M 33.74
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 19.75 -0.21 18.12 21.75 199K 226K 18.48
Current. Testing back on lower volume after the strong blast off the 18 day MVA. Should hold near 19.50.
VIVO 05/07 BO 9.25 +0.15 9.66 11.38 108K 45K 9.15
Exited. Did not recover over the 18 day MVA.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 27.24 +1.29 19.76 20 13M 8.5M 23.25
Current. Still surging on volume.
VSTA 05/22 Test BO 21.35 -1.41 24.15 27.95 485K 156K 22.45
Exited.
VSTA 04/28 Cup hdl 21.35 -1.41 19.98 23.85 485K 156K 22.45
Exited. Broke the 18 day MVA on rising volume so we took the
money off the table.
WMT 02/05 Put 52.81 -0.54 0 0 8.3M 8.2M 0
WWCA 05/22 BO 10.42 +0.14 9.68 13 1.1M 824K 9
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 11.18 +0.02 6.95 8.42 5.8M 6.5M 9.63
Current.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 30.15 +0.25 17.32 25 11M 20M 25.92
Current. Holding the gain well on lower volume as it sits out the action.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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