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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: CY; EPIC; FLIR; LEXR; NSM; NVDA
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/29/2003
ICST (Integrated Circuit System--$24.46; +0.7; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icst.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. ICST is working thorugh a 7-month base showing solid 7 to 5 accumulation (7 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume). This week it has made a strong move up off the 50 day MVA (22.50), making a strong volume move Thursday. It gave back half the gain, edging back from the breakout. This may be the breakout move in progress, but it has moved well and may make one more higher low before the breakout move comes. Either way we will be ready.
Volume: 4.36M Avg Volume: 1.682M
BUY POINT: $25.06 Volume=2.5M Target=$29.75 Stop=$23.31
POSITION: IUY JE - Oct. $25c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/icst.html
Play Date: 05/29/2003
SGMS (Scientific Games--$7.75; -0.26; optionable): Computer systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. SGMS formed a very nice 4-month base and broke out in early May. In the recent market chop it has formed a more extended handle to the base, using the 18 day MVA (7.37) as support. Accumulation in the base is solid at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is superb and leading higher. Wednesday the stock made a strong, high volume breakout from the handle. Thursday Lehman Brothers cut it to equal weight, something that happens from time to time when a stock breaks out. The pattern is solid and this downgrade barely took the wind out of it. Looking for a resumption of the move.
Volume: 1.32M Avg Volume: 380.636K
BUY POINT: $8.08 Volume=571K Target=$9.95 Stop=$7.51
POSITION: TUJ JU - Oct. $7.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sgms.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/21/2003
NCN (NCE Petrofund--$8.3; +0.11; no options): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Trying to make the breakout move, NCN is looking solid. Good 4 to 2 accumulation and strong money flow in the 11-week base. Looking for a strong volume breakout that sticks.
Volume: 309.9K Avg Volume: 185.727K
BUY POINT: $8.38 Volume=254K Target=$10 Stop=$7.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncn.html
Play Date: 05/27/2003
RHAT (Red Hat--$7.41; +0.16; optionable): System and net software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhat.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. RHAT is trying to make the clean getaway from the 6-month cup with handle base showing excellent 10 to 3 accumulation. Wednesday it was up but gave the move back. Thursday it was on the move again but could not hold the breakout. It still looks as if it is ready to make the move and we simply need to see the breakout hold toward the close.
Volume: 1.237M Avg Volume: 907.818K
BUY POINT: $7.45 Volume=1.4M Target=$8.94 Stop=$6.93
POSITION: RCV IU - Sept. $7.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rhat.html
Play Date: 05/28/2003
SRNA (Serena Software--$19.52; +0.02; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srna.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. Still working on the right shoulder of a 6-month base showing solid 7 to 2 accumulation (7 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Volume has been swelling the past several sessions as SRNA holds its gains and looks for the breakout. Nice pattern.
Volume: 1.356M Avg Volume: 410.045K
BUY POINT: $20.35 Volume=700K Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.78
POSITION: NHU HD - Aug. $20c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/srna.html
Downside:
Play Date: 05/24/2003
BRL (Barr Labs--$52.28; -0.6; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
STATUS: Put. BRL continues to toy with the breakdown, dipping below 50 intraday Thursday but recovering. Volume was up on the move, coming in just above average. Looking for a breakdown that holds, though the next time it goes below 52 will probably be for good, or at least on this leg lower.
Volume: 1.195M Avg Volume: 926.681K
BUY POINT: $51.94 Volume=1.4M Target=$48.06 Stop=$52.95
POSITION: IOB TY - Aug. $53.38p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/brl.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADPT 05/19 Test 18 7.97 +0.07 7.88 9.48 1.1M 825K 7.33
Current.
ADVP 05/20 Cup hdl 32.71 -0.04 32.85 39.22 849K 2M 31.92
Current.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 4.81 -0.27 4.45 5.45 558K 244K 4.21
Current.
ALT 05/07 Cup hdl 4.95 +0.05 4.4 5.45 108K 188K 4.44
Current.
AOS 05/17 Test BO 31.5 -0.2 31.65 37.65 50K 136K 30.25
Buy Not Issued.
APC 05/21 Cup hdl 48.74 -0.48 49.75 56.88 1.9M 3M 47.96
Buy Not Issued.
APOL 05/27 Test 50 56.09 +0.55 55.07 62 1.7M 2.7M 52.25
Current.
AVE 05/19 Put 53.12 -0.13 50.96 48 471K 375K 52.25
Buy Not Hit.
AXP 06/19 Put 41.03 -0.6 37.75 34.05 7.5M 500K 41
BCR 05/10 A Wedge 67.5 +0.28 64.4 73.75 319K 477K 65.75
Current.
BGEN 05/24 Rv H&S 41.68 -0.69 42.35 49.55 4.5M 4.5M 39.39
Current.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 14 +0.15 7.2 13.45 505K 300K 11.78
Current.
BPOP 05/22 Test BO 38.84 -0.47 37.95 44 246K 200K 37.44
Current.
BPOP 04/03 Cup hdl 38.84 -0.47 35.25 40.45 246K 200K 37.57
Current.
BRL 05/24 Put 52.28 -0.6 51.94 48.06 1.2M 1.4M 52.95
Buy Not Hit. Started to fall but could not hold the drop. Still,
volume rose and it looks ready to take the plunge.
CCU 05/17 Cup hdl 40.81 +1.09 41.26 47.45 5M 6.9M 39.25
Buy Not Hit.
CVH 03/31 BO 43.87 -0.12 40.25 47.25 794K 815K 39.97
Current.
CY 05/17 Test 18 11.13 +0.54 10.06 12.12 17M 2.3M 9.36
Buy Not Issued.
CY 03/04 Cup hdl 11.13 +0.54 6.7 8.65 17M 2.3M 9.48
Current.
ELAB 03/06 Cup hdl 27.02 -1.67 24.06 28.88 647K 325K 30.38
Exited. Dumped below the 50 day MVA on above average volume.
Took the rest of the $ off the table.
EPIC 05/08 FlyPlat 4.84 +0.69 3.15 4 1.1M 145K 3.11
Current.
EXTR 05/17 Test BO 6.03 -0.03 5.45 7.42 4M 4.5M 5.12
Current.
FDX 03/24 Cup hdl 62.63 +0.41 57.85 66 1.8M 2.2M 60.71
Current.
FFIV 05/21 Test 18 17.27 +0.25 15.62 18.55 521K 750K 15.23
Current.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 17.27 +0.25 15.34 18.32 521K 750K 15.23
Current.
FLIR 05/08 PreSplt 56.11 +1.57 51.7 58.75 388K 401K 51.25
Current.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 11.14 -0.21 10.55 12.75 463K 195K 9.69
Current.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 11.14 -0.21 9.2 10.96 463K 195K 9.69
Current.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 38.37 -0.53 26.5 30.75 498K 521K 35.35
Current.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 46.95 -1.07 22.34 37.45 283K 198K 44.44
Current.
GSPN 05/24 Test BO 7.46 -0.07 7.42 10 4.6M 2.8M 6.9
Current.
HIL 05/22 Test BO 10.45 -0.26 9.2 11.2 906K 250K 8.22
Current.
HIL 05/03 BO 10.45 -0.26 7.45 8.96 906K 250K 8.22
Current.
HTCH 05/14 A Wedge 29.95 +0.55 29 33.35 576K 802K 26.97
Current.
ICST 05/29 A Wedge 24.46 +0.7 25.06 29.75 4.4M 2.5M 23.31
New.
IDBE 04/16 Rv H&S 10.12 -0.06 8.17 11 258K 376K 9.25
Current.
JPM 05/24 Test BO 32.27 -0.28 32.58 36.45 9.6M 1.2M 30.42
Current.
JPM 04/01 Test BO 32.27 -0.28 24.96 28.55 9.6M 1.2M 29.65
Current.
KOSP 05/13 Test BO 25 +0.14 23.25 27.48 303K 400K 21.88
Buy Not Issued.
LEXR 05/22 Cup hdl 8 +0.21 6.22 7.55 3.6M 1.2M 5.78
Target Hit.
LEXR 04/30 FlyPlat 8 +0.21 5.06 7 3.6M 1.2M 5.78
Target Hit.
LGTO 05/22 A Wedge 7.16 +0.16 7.06 8.75 1.5M 2M 6.57
Current.
LU 05/14 Cup hdl 2.26 -0.02 2.37 3.05 238M 60M 2.17
Current.
MCDTA 04/30 Cup 10.99 -0.14 11.15 13.58 4.6M 2.7M 10.37
Current.
MED 05/22 Test BO 12.5 +0.84 10.62 12.78 230K 145K 9.65
Current.
MED 04/28 Cup hdl 12.5 +0.84 8.7 10.42 230K 145K 9.65
Current.
MER 04/28 Cup hdl 42.66 -0.26 43.32 49.55 4.8M 7.5M 41.25
Current. Was moving well but then gave the move back as volume
trailed off in the afternoon session.
MERQ 05/12 Cup hdl 38.54 -0.66 38.95 45.35 3.2M 6.8M 35.94
Current.
MOBE 04/24 Cup 2.52 -0.09 1.88 2.38 277K 110K 1.88
Current.
MVL 03/03 BO 20.86 +0.71 11.82 21 1.5M 675K 19.25
Current.
NBIX 05/03 Cup 49.71 +0.09 48.2 54.25 383K 600K 47.31
Current.
NCN 05/21 Cup hdl 8.3 +0.11 8.28 10 310K 254K 7.88
Buy Not Issued. Moved well, but was pulling back toward the close so
we opted to wait and see what Friday brings.
NENG 05/05 Cup hdl 2.59 -0.06 2.08 3.44 453K 232K 2.12
Current.
NSCN 04/23 Cup hdl 22.47 +0.1 21.17 25.42 1.5M 2.5M 20.94
Current.
NSM 04/18 Cup hdl 23.91 +1.18 19.55 24.88 3.9M 3.8M 21.82
Current.
NTN 05/07 Test BO 1.9 -0.05 1.95 2.75 154K 183K 1.81
Current.
NVDA 05/08 Test BO 24.21 +1.55 22.62 27 19M 11M 20.05
Current.
NWK 04/28 DB hdl 8.95 -0.1 7.11 9.45 315K 256K 7.31
Current.
ONXX 05/19 Rv H&S 9.97 -0.53 10.55 12.25 272K 300K 8.99
Current.
ORCL 05/28 Cup hdl 12.83 -0.43 13.48 16.25 50M 59M 12.54
Buy Not Hit.
OVRL 05/10 Test BO 17.1 -0.08 18.05 21.68 78K 125K 16.88
Buy Not Hit.
PKI 03/04 Test BO 12.8 +0.15 9.16 13.55 857K 1M 11
Current.
PRX 05/19 Put 40.44 +0.7 37.85 34.52 837K 700K 39.75
Current.
PSUN 05/24 Put 21.64 +0.21 20.55 18 1.9M 1.7M 21.68
Buy Not Issued.
PWN 05/07 BO 11.99 -0.09 11.66 13.94 35K 117K 11.18
Current.
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 49.35 +1.52 46.78 54 6.9M 8M 44.65
Buy Not Issued.
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 49.35 +1.52 38.85 45 6.9M 11M 44.24
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 49.35 +1.52 41.4 50 6.9M 25M 44.24
RHAT 05/27 Test 18 7.41 +0.16 7.45 8.94 1.2M 1.4M 6.93
Buy Not Issued. Looking better, moving on strong volume. Now we look
for the break higher that holds the buy point on the close.
RMBS 04/09 A Wedge 17.49 -0.06 17.55 21.45 1.9M 6.8M 15.94
Current.
RMD 05/03 Test BO 39.02 -0.25 37.75 43.75 563K 322K 35.92
Buy Not Issued.
ROOM 04/26 Cup 88.79 -0.52 68.75 94 718K 1.7M 80.55
SGMS 05/29 Test BO 7.75 -0.26 8.08 9.95 1.3M 571K 7.51
New.
SNPS 05/21 Cup hdl 60.99 +1.09 52.72 60.75 2.9M 1.6M 50.05
Buy Not Issued.
SRNA 05/28 Rv H&S 19.52 +0.02 20.35 24.45 1.4M 700K 18.78
Buy Not Hit.
SSYS 03/01 Cup hdl 26.3 -1.17 12.25 15.45 655K 110K 26.22
Exited. Exited as very volatile and was selling below the 18
day MVA again.
STK 04/28 Cup hdl 26.21 +0.36 26.55 31 833K 1M 25
Buy Not Issued.
SYMC 05/28 Rv H&S 44.46 -2.95 48.12 55.35 12M 8.2M 44.75
Buy Not Hit.
TRMB 05/29 Flat 25.22 -0.08 25.88 30 252K 350K 24.07
New.
TWTC 05/13 A Wedge 5.31 +0.02 4.08 5.85 1.9M 522K 4.85
Current.
UCOMA 03/31 Cup hdl 4.67 +0.12 3.35 4.48 795K 875K 4.21
Current.
WFII 04/30 Cup 10.18 +0.09 7.55 9 566K 261K 8.78
Current.
WSTC 05/24 Test 18 25.05 -0.18 25.2 28.38 107K 215K 23.82
Current.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 30.15 +0.25 17.32 25 11M 20M 25.92
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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