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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Friday: ABTL; APOL; BCR; FDX; GNTA; LGTO; LM; LXK; NCN; NVDA; NVLS; ZMH
New Plays:
Play Date: 05/31/2003
AMCC (Applied Micro Circuits--$5.03; +0.03; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amcc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AMCC is trying to make the breakout from a 7-month cup with handle base showing excellent 9 to 5 accumulation (9 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume). AMCC is a former leader that is attempting to rally off of the bottom, and there are many buyers right now as money flow is strong along with that accumulation. Thursday and Friday volume jumped sharply as AMCC tried to make the breakout but then could not hold the move. Just going to let it make the breakout and see it holding toward the close.
Volume: 11.95M Avg Volume: 2.971M
BUY POINT: $5.18 Volume=4.5M Target=$6.85 Stop=$4.82
POSITION: AEX HA - Aug. $5c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amcc.html
Play Date: 05/31/2003
CHIR (Chiron--$44.1; +0.77; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chir.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CHIR formed a 5-month reverse head and shoulders pattern from December to April, broke out, and is now testing the breakout after a very strong volume surge higher Tuesday. It made a lower volume pullback the rest of the week, tapping toward the 10 day MVA on the Friday low (43) before rebounding nicely. Accumulation is solid at 6 to 4 in the base, and money flow is very strong. Looking for volume to return on the move higher to step into positions to catch the rally back up.
Volume: 1.48M Avg Volume: 1.727M
BUY POINT: $44.48 Volume=2M Target=$53 Stop=$42.65
POSITION: CIQ JI - Oct. $45c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chir.html
Play Date: 05/31/2003
INSP (Infospace--$14.60; +0.25; no options): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/insp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. INSP has been rising since November, working in a range roughly from 9 to 12. During that time it put together some excellent accumulation at 8 to 3, and then after one last test of the 50 day MVA (12.59) it broke out big time 10 sessions back. It has moved laterally in a second range since then, and just now the 10 day MVA (14.13) is rising to meet it. After breakouts followed by lateral consolidations, when the 10 day MVA rises to meet price that usually touches off the next upleg. That is what we are waiting for here. Excellent money flow and relative strength to go with the strong accumulation.
Volume: 210.186K Avg Volume: 481.693K
BUY POINT: $14.96 Volume=500K Target=$18 Stop=$13.91
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/insp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS THAT LOOK READY:
Play Date: 04/24/2003
MRGE (Merge Technologies--$10.13; 0; no options): Computer data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrge.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Another nice, tight doji right on top of the 10 day MVA as MRGE tests its breakout. The 10 day MVA is also a good support level because it is where MRGE topped on its breakout run. Data storage is a solid sector. This is just the second test of the short term MVA after the breakout, so MRG still has plenty of room to run.
Volume: 90.43K Avg Volume: 79.845K
BUY POINT: New: $10.45 (orig. $8.06) Volume=100K Target=New positions: $12.75; orig. $10.45 Stop=$9.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mrge.html
Play Date: 04/23/2003
NSCN (Netscreen Technologies--$22.36; -0.11; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nscn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. NSCN continues to consolidat the breakout, setting up for the next move. Thursday and Friday NSCN held over the 10 day MVA (22.05) as volume backed off and the trading range was tight. It looks as if it is tightening up, ready for the next break higher. When it goes it can be explosive.
Volume: 1.038M Avg Volume: 1.793M
BUY POINT: New: $22.88 (orig. $21.17) Volume=2.5M Target=$25.42 Stop=$20.94
POSITION: QKN ID - Sept. $20c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nscn.html
Play Date: 05/21/2003
NCN (NCE Petrofund--$8.4; +0.1; no options): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NCN is making the move with volume rallying as it moved through the buy point Friday. Solid action as it moved out of the handle to the 11 week base with 4 to 2 accumulation and surging money flow. Still a buy.
Volume: 446.5K Avg Volume: 201.113K
BUY POINT: New: $8.45 (orig. $8.38) Volume=254K Target=$10 Stop=$8.08
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ncn.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
Still look ready: BGEN; DVA; ADVP; CNQR; ADVP; MME; JCOM; SGMS; SRNA
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABTL 05/21 Test BO 5.7 +0.23 5.25 6.94 413K 371K 4.88
Current. Nice volume surge off the 10 day MVA as ABTL continues
its move.
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 10.53 +0.16 9.64 11.65 525K 521K 9.78
Current. Still working up the 10 day but a bit choppy late in
the week though volume dropped off. Still a strong uptrend.
ADPT 05/19 Test 18 8 +0.03 7.88 9.48 1.5M 825K 7.33
Current. Did not really participate in late-week rally but volume
is swelling, and that can mean a break higher ahead.
ADVP 05/20 Cup hdl 33.1 +0.39 32.85 39.22 1M 2M 31.92
Current. Trying to break higher off the test of the 18 day MVA.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 4.81 0 4.45 5.45 319K 244K 4.35
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA though getting a bit
volatile late in the week.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 12.27 +0.27 10.95 13.22 670K 417K 10.97
Current. Nice uptrend over the 10 day continues after the breakout.
Solid.
ALT 05/07 Cup hdl 4.91 -0.04 4.4 5.45 150K 188K 4.54
Current. Working laterally over the 10 day MVA as volume backs
off. Looks to be setting up for the next move, but
being careful here with a higher stop.
AMCC 05/31 Cup hdl 5.03 +0.03 5.18 6.85 12M 4.5M 4.82
New.
AMT 04/30 Test 50 8.96 -0.53 6.84 8.35 2.6M 2.1M 8.04
Current. Good week but then finished Friday by selling off after
opening higher. Still a nice uptrend and good volume
on the early week climb.
AOS 05/17 Test BO 31.78 +0.28 32.06 37.65 68K 136K 30.88
Buy Not Issued. Did not give the strong break higher, so moved up the
buy point to let it clear resistance on a good volume push.
APOL 05/27 Test 50 57.84 +1.75 55.07 62 3.1M 2.7M 54.35
Current. Strong surge to a new high to finish the week. A quick
50 day MVA test was all it needed. Gave us a gain the
first time and now it is already doing it again.
BCR 05/10 A Wedge 70.15 +2.65 64.4 73.75 839K 477K 66.25
Current. Nice surge up off the 10 day MVA test on volume.
BGEN 05/24 Rv H&S 42.42 +0.74 42.35 49.55 3.6M 4.5M 39.39
Current. Has come back to test the 10 day MVA and now looks
ready to continue the move.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 14.28 +0.28 7.2 13.45 462K 300K 11.78
Current. Very nice week, starting on strong volume and cruising
up all week.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 24.51 +0.98 19.2 22.94 15M 15M 21.15
Current. Excellent week as BRCM rallied on above average volume.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 31.48 +1.08 30.98 37.12 3.5M 1.8M 29.88
Current. Had a tough week on the announcement of that convertible
offering, but held the 10 day MVA Friday with a doji
& that can indicate the selling is over.
CHIR 05/31 Test BO 44.1 +0.77 44.48 53 1.5M 2M 42.65
New.
CMVT 05/24 Test BO 15.27 +0.36 13.75 16.55 4.5M 4.4M 13.42
Current. Excellent week, surging on volume in a nice breakout
and follow through.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.85 +0.08 6.75 8.12 187K 250K 6.22
Current. Up off the 10 day MVA on some rising though below average
volume.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 21.79 -0.48 14.12 17.25 5.7M 5.3M 19.98
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA though lost ground Friday
on volume in an up market. Moved up the trailing stop
to let it ride.
CZN 04/24 Cup hdl 12.32 +0.08 11.34 13.57 1.4M 156K 11.78
Current. Volume surged in late in the week but it could not
get the breakaway move.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 28.99 -0.29 23.81 28.42 320K 225K 28.35
Current.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 28.99 -0.29 22.75 27.35 320K 225K 28.35
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA as DKS sat out last week rally.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 19.66 +0.3 17.62 20.95 1M 1.4M 17.96
Current. Nice recovery off the 18 day MVA to take it back to
20. This is where it needs to make a strong move but
will probably test back toward 19 first.
DVA 05/17 Cup hdl 24.25 +0.29 24.65 29.55 256K 573K 23.45
Buy Not Hit. Still waiting . . . patiently.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 15.29 +0.19 10.9 13.15 3.8M 4.4M 13.75
Current. Solid week but Friday reversed off its high and closed
fractionally higher on rising, above average volume.
May need to test back toward 14.50 here.
FDX 03/24 Cup hdl 63.98 +1.35 57.85 66 1.8M 2.2M 61.45
Current. Nice finish to the week with two days of surging volume
and a new high.
FFIV 05/21 Test 18 17.31 +0.04 15.62 18.55 338K 750K 16
Current.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 17.31 +0.04 15.34 18.32 338K 750K 15.23
Current. Good start and then coasted to Friday on lower volume.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 11.2 +0.06 10.55 12.75 113K 195K 10.15
Current. Good week though Thursday it sold some on sharp volume.
May come back to test the 10 day at 10.50 here for
a routine pullback.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 11.2 +0.06 9.2 10.96 113K 195K 10.15
Current.
GNTA 05/29 Test BO 11.62 +0.36 11.62 14 1.7M 904K 10.74
Current. Excellent volume moved us into this play.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 38.76 +0.39 26.5 30.75 583K 521K 35.35
Current. Nice 10 day MVA test, and volume jumped as it bounced
up from that level Friday. Looks ready for the next move.
HTCH 05/14 A Wedge 30.19 +0.24 29 33.35 716K 802K 27.92
Current. Finally gave the nice breakout last week and rallied
all week on solid volume.
IDBE 04/16 Rv H&S 10.64 +0.52 8.17 11 299K 376K 9.68
Current. Trying to bounce again off the 10 day MVA but it has
glue on the shoe.
IDC 05/29 BO 16.16 -0.09 16.38 19.65 183K 122K 15.23
Buy Not Issued. Tempted us with the high volume, but held off to let
things settle down, and it did just that. Still solid.
INSP 05/31 Test BO 14.6 +0.25 14.96 18 210K 500K 13.91
New.
JCOM 05/27 Cup hdl 36.94 +1.14 38.12 45.55 465K 1M 34.94
Current. Started back up Friday though it could use better volume.
JNPR 05/22 Flat 13.8 +0.14 12.9 15.55 16M 17M 12.72
Current.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 13.8 +0.14 10.6 13.42 16M 17M 12.72
Current. Having a hard time clearing 14, hitting that level
all 4 sessions on the high.
KOSP 05/13 Test BO 24.36 -0.64 23.25 27.48 199K 400K 21.88
Buy Not Issued. Coming back from the big break higher. Needs to hold
24 and rally from there.
LGTO 05/22 A Wedge 7.6 +0.44 7.06 8.75 3.2M 2M 6.75
Current. Nice break higher on volume to end the week!
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 64.61 +2.86 58.5 67.78 1.3M 610K 59.65
Current. Great week, and ended it with a high volume bang higher.
LXK 05/20 Test 50 74.4 +3.73 71.4 79.55 4M 1.8M 71.45
Current. Super surge off the 50 day MVA on volume to end the week!
MAT 05/20 Put 21.51 +0.4 21.3 19.45 2.9M 2.5M 21.95
Current. Back up to test the 50 day MVA after looking as if
it was cratering. It fails this week or we will exit.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 23.3 +0.3 21.25 25.48 314K 825K 21.65
Current. Solid first part of the week that fizzled on low volume
Thursday and Friday.
MED 05/22 Test BO 12.4 -0.1 10.62 12.78 317K 145K 10.85
Current. Excellent week though Friday it gave back the gain
on volume. Still a strong uptrend.
MED 04/28 Cup hdl 12.4 -0.1 8.7 10.42 317K 145K 10.85
Current.
MER 04/28 Cup hdl 43.3 +0.64 43.32 49.55 5.6M 7.5M 41.68
Current. Good week and stronger volume move Friday, but needs
a big upside volume session to really break it free.
MME 04/30 BO 47.9 +0.28 45.65 54.45 520K 634K 45.88
Current. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA and below
48, building pressure from below.
MRGE 04/24 Rv H&S 10.13 0 8.06 10.45 90K 65K 9.88
Current. Beautiful test of the 10 day MVA, showing a doji on
rising volume Friday. Looks ready.
MUSE 05/03 Test 18 9.5 +0.09 7.75 9.35 2.2M 2M 8.24
Current. Good week though the fireworks were over after Tuesday.
Closed well off the high Friday & may be ready for
a bit of a pullback.
NCN 05/21 Cup hdl 8.4 +0.1 8.28 10 446K 254K 8.08
Buy Not Issued. Had the volume and made the move, but we stayed on
the sidelines taking pictures. Still easily a buy from
here.
NENG 05/05 Cup hdl 2.59 0 2.08 3.44 385K 232K 2.29
Current. Getting a bit wild late in the week, tapping the 10
day MVA on the Friday low and rebounding.
NSCN 04/23 Cup hdl 22.36 -0.11 21.17 25.42 1M 2.5M 21.45
Current. Tightening up over the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
Looks to be preparing for the move.
NSM 04/18 Cup hdl 24.96 +1.05 19.55 24.88 4.1M 3.8M 22.75
Target Hit. Nice break to a recent high on strong volume. Took
some nice gain, let some run.
NTES 04/01 Cup 32.3 -0.25 17 27 1.5M 1M 29
Current. Another great week though the last part was a lateral
move as NTES found resistance at 33.60.
NVDA 05/08 Test BO 26.17 +1.96 22.62 27 18M 11M 23.15
Current. Massive week capped by a big gap higher Friday on an
upgrade. Kind of the reverse as downgrades are the
norm when stocks breakout to the upside.
NVLS 05/06 Flat 34.67 +2.5 30.28 36 22M 11M 31.94
Current. Ripping higher on huge volume after its mid-quarter
update was apparently palatable to investors.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 35.89 +1.05 19.05 31 1.1M 1.2M 31.05
Current. Excellent week as OVTI continued its move up off the
18 day MVA.
PKI 03/04 Test BO 12.79 -0.01 9.16 13.55 758K 1M 11.75
Current. Still moving up the 10 day MVA though volume ran out
late in the week as PKI stalled at 13. May be ready
to test the 10 day again.
PWN 05/07 BO 12.02 +0.03 11.66 13.94 56K 117K 11.55
Current. Still working in the uptrend over the 10 day MVA but
did not participate in teh end of week rally.
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 50.11 +0.75 46.78 54 7.2M 8M 46.25
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 50.11 +0.75 38.85 45 7.2M 11M 46.25
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 50.11 +0.75 41.4 50 7.2M 25M 46.25
QLGC 08/17 CCall 50.11 +0.75 36.48 0 7.2M 12M 46.25
Current. Strong week on excellent volume.
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 6.42 -0.23 4.84 7.1 161K 132K 5.96
Current. Good week up to Friday when RGEN turned to test the
10 day. Volume fell to nothing, so not so bad.
RHAT 05/27 Test 18 7.45 +0.04 7.45 8.94 1.3M 1.4M 6.93
Buy Not Issued. Just could not make the breakaway move last week though
volume was swelling.
RMBS 04/09 A Wedge 17.9 +0.41 17.55 21.45 1.6M 6.8M 15.94
Current. Gapped higher and could not go further. Good action
to hold the gains though may test back some after the
gap higher.
RMD 05/03 Test BO 39.8 +0.78 37.75 43.75 270K 322K 38
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 16.05 +0.2 12.22 16 823K 696K 14.75
Current. Still in the strong uptrend over the 10 day MVA SHOWING
STRONG VOLUME fRIDAY.
SEPR 04/12 Test BO 22.82 -0.05 17.1 21 1.1M 1.8M 20.94
Current. Exploded higher Tuesday and then edged back the rest
of the week on lighter volume. Announced a convertible
offering but held up very well.
SGMS 05/29 Test BO 7.71 -0.04 8.08 9.95 458K 571K 7.51
Buy Not Hit. Nice test of the 10 day MVA showing a nice tight doji.
Could be finished with the test.
SHRP 05/23 Cup hdl 22.75 +0.85 22.06 26.55 312K 350K 20.52
Buy Not Issued. Made the price breakout but volume was not quite breakout
quality.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 10.44 +1.16 7.58 9.55 1.1M 125K 9
Exploding higher on huge volume.
SINA 05/22 Cup hdl 16.16 +0.7 14.75 17.75 3.6M 2.5M 13.96
Current. Continues to work up the 10 day MVA on above average
volume all week. Solid trade.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 16.16 +0.7 9.35 13.45 3.6M 2.5M 13.96
Current.
SRNA 05/28 Rv H&S 19.78 +0.26 20.35 24.45 828K 700K 18.78
Buy Not Hit. Still looks super in the solid pattern as volume swells.
STX 05/24 Test BO 15.15 0 13.95 16.75 2.5M 2.9M 13.55
Current. Gapped lower Friday but managed to rally back to flat.
TLB 05/17 Put 28.94 +1.21 25.95 22.65 292K 375K 27.55
Exited.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 45.3 +0.75 43.75 52 141K 603K 42.85
Current. Forming a new reverse head and shoulders with a breakout
over 46.
TXN 05/28 Cup hdl 20.5 +0.26 20.85 24.75 10M 16M 19.39
Current. Out of the blocks like a ball of fire Wednesday, but
could not follow through late in the week.
UCOMA 03/31 Cup hdl 4.61 -0.06 3.35 4.48 672K 875K 4.35
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA after a drop to test the 18
day late the prior week. Not a powerful bounce off
of this level as it tries to consolidate the prior
move that faded.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 20 +0.25 18.12 21.75 89K 226K 19
Current. Strong move Tuesday and then gave back a good part
of it late in the week on lower volume. Great rebound
and was takign a breather.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 27.72 +0.48 19.76 20 12M 8.5M 24.92
Current. Excellent week on strong volume.
WPI 05/05 Flat 37.02 +0.46 31.62 38 618K 1.9M 35.25
Current. Moving laterally over teh 10 day and below 37.
WWCA 05/22 BO 10.7 +0.28 9.68 13 1.1M 824K 9.45
XLNX 05/27 Test 50 29.9 -0.61 30.22 35.55 11M 16M 28.12
Current. Strong break higher Thursday on volume. Friday it
took a breather with many of the chip stocks.
ZMH 05/24 Put 44.86 -1.1 44.95 42 3.6M 2.4M 46.25
Current. Finally started the high volume move down Friday after
the low volume test of the 50 day MVA breakdown.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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