us stock market, trade stock

Begin Part 2 of 2

THE PLAYS:

All prices reflect prices at the close on Monday.

Best Plays: WLSN broke out on huge volume, and ADVS continued its breakout move. Stocks that continue to consolidate nicely are RECN, SONC, BGEN, JNPR, and DISH. We have added a couple of stocks tonight: CEC, PDLI and HGSI.

Best Plays:
1) RECN: Looks good in this shakeout on low volume.
2) AA: At support on lower volume.
3) NVDA: Still looking strong.
4) HCC: Just needs volume.
5) SONC: Getting ready to move back up.
6) JNPR: Still a decent pattern.
7) EDS: Trying to make that breakout.
8) PDLI: A strong move.
9) AHAA: Earnings out tomorrow.
10) QQQ: Sitting on major support.

READY TO BREAK TO A NEW HIGH (or just did):

Continued Plays: SRCL is now on a watchlist.

RECN (Rscs Connection--$26.55; -0.01; no options): Aerospace/Defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
STATUS: Holding steady on even lower volume (98,900; avg. 164,000). We like the shakeout of holders (volume's been below average for the last 6 days) and the hold above support of the 10 day MVA (25.62). Looking for a move up from here, or from a retest of 26 (hit 6 times this month) on a volume surge. April high is 29, which remains our initial target.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on volume of 134 or better. Stop loss: 24.69 (just under the 18 day MVA, 24.80).
POSITION: Stock.

LEN (Lennar--$43.77; -1.13; optionable (LEN): Materials & construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/len.html
STATUS: Tested the 10 day MVA on the low of 43, on slightly higher volume (950,600; avg. 785,000), showing some selling on the day. Showed some effort coming off the low, but we may see a retest of the 10 day before the stock heads back up. Still needs to consolidate, apparently, after hitting Thursday's high of 45.99. Great money flow and good buying. Target on a move over that high: $51-53.
BUY POINT: Pullback: Up from the 43 range on continued rising volume. Stop loss: 40 (50 day MVA is at 39.74).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $40 calls to buy (LEN HH).

BREAKOUTS: We are looking for targets on breakout 10-15% above the buy point, adjusted from the usual bull market 15-20%. WATCHLIST: TFX looks ready for a pullback after breaking out, testing, and running back up. We will put it back on when it looks ready for a play.

New Plays (from the weekend):

COLM (Columbia Sportswr--$68.07; +3.27; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colm.html
STATUS: Managed to tack on another 3 points after Friday's strong breakaway gap, posting another new all-time closing high. Volume was down to 572,500 (avg. 167,136,) however, so we are now looking for that pullback, which will offer another entry point opportunity. The stock hit our target on today's move, so we will adjust that for a move back up after a breakout test: $75.
BUY POINT: Test of the breakout pullback: On a move back up from the 62 range on rising volume. Stop loss: 57.23 (10 day MVA). Stop losses can help preserve gains on such strong breakouts as this.
POSITION: Stock.

OMG (Om Grp--$54.70; -0.70; no options): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omg.html
STATUS: Tried to attach more gains to Friday's strong breakout move, but as volume dropped back to 281,000 (avg. 96,000) the stock couldn't hold the high of 57.30 and closed back below Friday's closing price or 55.40. This one is headed for a test of 54 at least; below that, the 10 day MVA (52.69). We'd like to see it hold up at the higher support, however. Looking for a gentler pullback in a handle now. Target on a breakout from the 4-month base: $63-66.
BUY POINT: Pullback: On a move back up from the 54 range on rising volume. Stop loss: 50.00.
POSITION: Stock.

Continued Plays:

AA (Alcoa--$41.40; -0.59; optionable (AA): Metals & Mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aa.html
STATUS: Pulling back again on even lower volume (3.4 million; avg. 4 million) after hitting the April closing high of 42.08. The low tested near the 10 day MVA (40.49) as the stock closed at the previous Friday's high (noted in the weekend report). If that holds, the stock can move back up from here on a strong shot of volume. Initial target: $46-48. Outstanding money flow and good buying.
BUY POINT: Pullback: Back up from 41.40 on stronger volume. Stop loss: 38.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $37.50 calls to buy (AA GU).

NVDA (Nvidia--$83.30; +4.30; optionable (RVU): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: And take advantage of a rally it did, moving to a high of 87.95 before pulling back down, but tacking on a nice gain anyway. Volume was strongwer at 6.6 million (avg. 4.5 million). In a continued rally, the stock can slide back up, but will need the stronger volume to break it over resistance at 88 (tapped twice in the last week). Initial target: April high of 90 (short term; if it makes it, we will let it run).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on stronger volume. Stop loss: 77 (just under the 10 day MVA at 77.88). Pullback: On a move up from the 18 day MVA (74.55) on continued high volume. Stop loss: 69.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or June $75 calls to buy (RVU FO). Pullback: Stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (RVU FN). Next month out for options is September.

HOTT (Hot Topic--$33.42; -1.57; optionable (UHO): Textiles: Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
STATUS: Volume took off Monday (to 27.2 million; avg. 597,000), popping the stock higher but it didn't hold the high of 36.20, instead closing back below Friday's closing breakout high of 34.99. The low of 32.98 tested potential support at the 33 level, but on this kind of volume, the 10 day MVA (31.49) is likely the target on that move
BUY POINT: Pullback: Up from a test of 31.49 (or better). Stop loss: 29.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $30 calls to buy (UHO HF).

DG (Dollar General--$16.50; -7.38; optionable (DG): Discount Stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dg.html
STATUS: Restating earnings for the last 3 years, downgrades, news that sold the stock down to 14.80 on the low. DG recouped some of the loss, but closed well below the 200 day MVA. It may not turn out as badly as it sounds, but we are taking no new positions.

TESTS OF THE BREAKOUT: Some of these stocks are moving back on low volume to test the breakout. We often take profits on option plays when they start to pullback on the breakout move and then get back in when the stock bounces up off of the breakout point. This second move is where some of the biggest gains are made.

Back on the report (as of the weekend):

HCC (Hcc--$28.20; +0.20; no options): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcc.html
STATUS: After the move off the 18 day MVA (27.45) Friday on stronger volume, the stock looked ready to continue moving and tried Monday, reaching a high of 28.71 before pulling back down. Volume was lower at 321,500 (avg. 431,045), holding the stock back. Still looks good in the pattern, just needs the volume. We like the move past the noted resistance at 28.10. Target: $32-33.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on stronger volume (average or better). Stop loss: 26.22 (just above the 50 day MVA at 26.07).
POSITION: Stock.

Continued Plays:

SONC (Sonic--$27.87; +0.13; optionable (ZSQ): Gaming
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Tightening the pattern in the consolidation formed after the stock hit a new closing high April 18 (28.96). Holding above the 10 day MVA (27.31) and the buy point of 27.14, SONC closed showing a tight doji. Volume was higher at 128,800 but still below average (162,000). Looking for a move back up from here or after a test of the low of 27.71. Target on a move back over Wednesday's high of 29.25: $32-33.
BUY POINT: Up from here on above average volume. Stop loss: 25.77.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $25 calls to buy (ZSQ FE; low open interests). Next month out for options is September.

GENZ (Genzyme--$108.97; +1.46; optionable (GZQ):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Volume climbed (to 3.4 million; avg. 2.6 million), and the stock hit another new high. The high of 110.34 tapped near Friday's high of 110, indicating possible resistance at that level; after a 4-day run, we continue to look for a pullback. Showing a loose doji, the stock looks ready. Look for support at the 105 level in that event. GENZ moved up after testing its recent breakout. Target after a pullback: $118-123.
BUY POINT: Pullback: On a move back up from the 105 range on strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $100 calls to buy (GZQ GT; low open interests).

WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume. WATCHLIST: SCIO is ready for a pullback.

New Play (from the weekend):

BGEN (Biogen--$64.94; +2.40; optionable (BGQ):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgen.html
STATUS: Tried to break out of its ascending wedge but pulled off a high of 67.50 to show a tight doji. The low tapped near support (10 day MVA, 63.38). The stock surged early on strong volume (ending the day at 2.87 million; avg. 3.3 million). Look for a retest of the 10 day MVA if the stock cannot move back up from here. The pattern formed after the stock pulled of the February high of 75 and hit a March low of 52.88. Upper resistance is at the pattern high of 65.81. Initial target: $75.
BUY POINT: 65.94, on volume of 4.4 million or better. Stop loss: 61.13 (200 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (BGQ GL).

BASING/TRADING RANGES: Lots of patterns breaking down (a sign of a weakening market. Make sure of the breakout and then set stops just below the pivot point. Follow gains up with trailing stops. WATCHLIST: RDN, MMM, CDWC, LEH, WCOM.

New Play (From the weekend):

AMD (Adv Micro Dev--$31.00; +1.00; optionable (AMD): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amd.html
STATUS: Followed Friday's good move by gapping up today, but after hitting as high as 32.15 the stock pulled back to close with a doji. The pattern suggests a pullback, and we will see if it can hold its recent highs at 30. Still shows great money flow and good buying. Initial target: $35-36.
BUY POINT: A move back up after a lower-volume pullback that holds 30. Stop loss: 27.91 (10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (AMD GE).

Continued Plays:

EDS (Electronic Data--$64.50; +1.15; optionable (EDS): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eds.html
STATUS: Tried a move out of its cup with handle pattern, but pulled all the way back to close with a doji after hitting up to 66.12 at its high. Volume was up but not of breakout strength (3.25 million; we were looking for 4 million, over the average 2.8 million). We can get a drop back on this pattern, with recent support at the 62 level (10 day MVA at 62.19). Target on a breakout: $72-75.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move up after a lower-volume pullback to the 62 range. Breakout: 66.25, on volume of 4 million or better.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or June $60 calls to buy (EDS FL). Next month out: September

WLSN (Wilsons Leather--$22.13; +2.68; no options): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlsn.html
STATUS: Got the breakout as the stock blasted up on great volume (1.04 million; average 120,000), taking out the handle high of 20 and making a new all-time high. A great move of better than 10%, and we could get some profit-taking here that could set us up for taking new or additional positions on a move back up. The stock is in the range of initial target of 22-23.
BUY POINT: A move up after a lower volume pullback that holds the 21 range.
POSITION: Stock.

TGT (Target--$38.45; -0.71; optionable (TGT): Discount stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tgt.html
STATUS: Followed the strong move of the last couple of sessions by gapping up and hitting 40 (a new high) before reversing. Volume was up on the reversal, and we will see if the stock can hold the 38 level (some support from recent levels) or the 10 day MVA (37.34) and make another attempt to move up. Money flow is outstanding. Initial target on a breakout: $43-45.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move up on strong volume after holding the 37-38 on a lower-volume pullback (5.18 million today; average 4.35 million). Breakout: 40.13 on volume of 6.4 million or better.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (TGT GG).

JNPR (Juniper--$59.03; +4.01; optionable (IUX): Computer Hardware http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Continued between the 50 day MVA (61.43) and 18 day MVA (53.31), showing a doji as volume swelled to 32.4 million (average 27.9 million). The stock tapped the 50 day at its high of 61.75 before pulling back. We are still looking for a strong move in a rally that breaks the 50 day MVA. The stock hit a recent high of 69.50. Initial target: $75.
BUY POINT: Over 62 on volume in the range of 37 million. Stop loss: 57.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (IUX GL).

Trading plays:

New Plays:

PDLI (Protein Design--$64.25; +5.12; optionable (PQI): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
STATUS: Broke out over resistance (60) on strong volume (2.45 million; avg. 1.6 million). Looking for a trade up to the 200 day MVA (79.10 range) as the stock carves the upper right side of a 3-month base (that formed at the bottom of a larger base). Money flow is coming up, and buying is positive.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop loss: 59.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (PQI HK). Low open interests.

HGSI (Human Genome--$64.23; +4.68; optionable (HHA): Drug
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hgsi.html
STATUS: Another drug stock that broke through resistance (at the 62 range) on stronger volume (average, at 3.7 million). The high tapped near resistance at the 200 day MVA (67.11), so we will look for a break of that level for looking at positions with stock or options. HGSI shows improved buying, and money flow has really come on this month.
Target: $80.
BUY POINT: On a break over 67.11 on continued rising volume. Stop loss: 62.41.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (HHA GL).

Continued Plays:

AHAA (Alpha Ind--$24.57; +0.21; optionable (GAK): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ahaa.html
STATUS: Moved up a bit from support of its 10 day MVA (23.57), but the stock could only manage a loose doji as volume remained low (711,100; average 1.23 million). AHAA is moving in a little consolidation after the stock pulled back from its April high of 28.40, as the stock is trying to build the right side of its base (December high is at 55). Looking for a move up on stronger volume with a target of the 200 day MVA (31.91); earnings are out tomorrow after the close.
BUY POINT: Over 26 on volume of 1.1 million or better. Stop loss: 24.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $22.50 calls to buy (GAK HX).

QQQ (Nasdaq 100--$46.15; +1.00; optionable (QQQ):
STATUS: Gapped up and showed a doji on increased volume (73.8 million; average 79 million), closing just over what has upper resistance in its recent range, the 50 day MVA (45.97). The pattern indicates a possible drop back (the lower support of late has been the 10 day MVA, at 44.58), but we will see if it can hold the 50 day and try to mount a move up. Recent high is at 51. Initial target: $55-56.
BUY POINT: After holding the 50 day, a strong move up with increased volume. Stop loss: 43.75.
POSITION: June $42 or $43 calls to buy (QQQ FP or FQ).

DISH (Echostar--$29.96; -0.56; optionable (UAB): Consumer durables
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dish.html
STATUS: Has pulled back, continuing down today but closing over the 18 day MVA (29.87) in what resembles a cup pattern. Volume increased but remained below average at 2.48 million (average 2.58 million). Still that is distribution. Again looking for the stock to hold and not drop back to the 50 day (29.21), but it has struggled at the 32 level (recent intraday high in the pattern at 33.10). Earnings are out May 3. Target: $35 (200 day MVA).
BUY POINT: Over 32 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $30 calls to buy (UAB FF). Next month out for options is September.

ADVS (Advent Soft--$55.98; +3.81; optionable (UIV): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advs.html
STATUS: Broke out last week and continued up Monday, breaking over its 200 day MVA (53.29). Volume continued to be strong on the powerful move, coming in at 579,500 (average 325,000). A bit extended to chase now (over 10% over the breakout), so we will see if the stock pulls back for us on lower volume, watching for the stock to hold the 200 day. The stock faces its January high at 60.50.
BUY POINT: A move up after a pullback on lower volume that holds the 200 day.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (UIV HJ).

Good Investing!
Your Technical Traders Report Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

us stock market
trade stock