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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: ABTL; AGEN; BCE; DCLK; RCII; UNTD; UTHR
Friday Plays:
ED: Still looks solid, showing a doji.
INSP: Still working laterally in the consolidation.
MVSN: Started higher but could not hold it on average volume.
UNT: Gapped higher, ran up, but volume was not there.
IBM: Gapped higher but turned immediately back. The after hours news will not help at all.
Best Plays:
1) RRC: Making the breakout.
2) TSCO: Ready for the next new high
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/02/2003
RRC (Range Resources--$6.32; +0.32; no options): Independent oil & gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rrc.html
STATUS: Flat base. RRC has been moving in a 5 month flat base ranging roughly from 5.50 to 6.20. Accumulation during the base is solid at 7 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is excellent. Volume started to turn higher late last week and Monday it shot higher in a breakout move. Energy is one of the hotter sectors with good patterns and stocks startin to make the breakout moves.
Volume: 458.6K Avg Volume: 128.227K
BUY POINT: $6.42 Volume=200K Target=$8 Stop=$5.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rrc.html
Play Date: 06/02/2003
SNUS (Sonus Pharmaceutical--$4; -0.05; no options): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snus.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. SNUS exploded out of a 4.5 month base in April, rallied to 4.20, and for the past month has moved laterally to test the move on mostly lower, below average volume. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 5 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume. Accumulation in the lateral pattern is 2 to 0. Money flow is moving up ahead of price as well. SNUS reversed at 4.18 Monday and closed on the 10 day MVA after tested lower (4). A bit wild, but that was the market. We need to see it clear the pattern highs on strong volume and hold that move into the close. Then we enter.
Volume: 162.08K Avg Volume: 85.727K
BUY POINT: $4.28 Volume=130K Target=$5.95 Stop=$3.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/snus.html
Continuing plays that look good:
Play Date: 04/24/2003
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$46; +0.7; optionable): Ranch supplies for all of your outdoor chores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Reversed head and shoulders. TSCO is on the verge of its next breakout, having formed another reverse head and shoulders pattern (that is how we got back in in April). Monday TSCO was on the way to a breakout (high at 47.72) but it fell back with the market, managing a smaller though respectable gain on rising, above average volume. Looking for another breakout here that holds to the close.
Volume: 577.586K Avg Volume: 386.136K
BUY POINT: New: $46.28 (orig. $43.75) Volume=603K Target=$52 Stop=$42.85
POSITION: QTF JI - Oct. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tsco.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 24.03 -0.48 19.2 22.94 17M 15M 21.15
Current. Sold back on some rising volume. Still in good shape.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 68.49 +2.2 0 0 510K 0 63.75
Super blast higher out of the month-long lateral consolidation.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 28.66 -1.18 17.32 25 17M 20M 27.55
Current. Down hard to the 10 day MVA as were most internets.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABTL 05/21 Test BO 5.87 +0.17 5.25 6.94 898K 371K 4.88
Current. Rallying again on strong volume.
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 10.43 -0.1 9.64 11.65 685K 521K 9.78
Current. Testing the move with a lateral pullback on mostly lower volume. May take a few more days.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 5.08 +0.27 4.45 5.45 557K 244K 4.35
Current. Nice volume move up off the 10 day MVA test.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 13.37 +1.1 10.95 13.22 2M 417K 10.97
Current. Gapped higher on huge volume though could not hold all of the gain.
AMZN 05/03 BO 35.4 -0.49 30.3 35.45 9.6M 12M 32.45
Current. Gapped higher but solid back negative. Volume was lower and below average.
AVID 05/22 Flat 36.45 +2.8 29.06 34.78 2.3M 750K 27.15
Buy Not Issued. Giving no pullback, AVID is off to the races again. Damn.
AXP 05/24 Test BO 42.38 +0.72 40.75 46.45 6.1M 6M 39.94
Current. Not a bad move, rallying on some stronger volume.
BCE 04/05 Cup 22.35 +0.33 19.9 23.75 549K 550K 21.05
Current. Another nice volume gain.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 14.78 +0.5 7.2 13.45 887K 300K 11.78
Current. Galloped ahead but gave most of it back as volume shot higher.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 24.03 -0.48 19.2 22.94 17M 15M 21.15
Current. Sold back on some rising volume. Still in good shape.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 41.37 +0.35 41.25 48.55 17M 23M 39.38
Current. Moving laterally after the breakout.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 31.28 -0.2 30.98 37.12 2.8M 1.8M 29.88
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA, trying to make a stand there.
CNQR 04/22 Test 18 6.64 -0.21 6.75 8.12 226K 250K 6.22
Current. Tried to start up but sold back to the 10 day on the close.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 34.05 +0.38 32 38 792K 1.3M 32.45
Current. Better volume as it continues the move up off the 18 day.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 21.76 -0.03 14.12 17.25 3.7M 5.3M 19.98
Current. Held basically steady.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 10.78 +0.28 9.04 11.35 3.6M 1.9M 9.48
Current. Up again on some good volume.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 28.5 -0.49 23.81 28.42 773K 225K 28.35
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA on the low and rebounded on some strong volume. Needs to continue the move back up.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 28.5 -0.49 22.75 27.35 773K 225K 28.35
Current.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 19.69 +0.03 17.62 20.95 1.3M 1.4M 17.96
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 99.42 -2.23 69.45 92 5.7M 12M 96
Current. Internets had a harder session, selling back just below the 10 day on rising though still below average volume.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 99.42 -2.23 62.45 92 5.7M 12M 94.92
Current.
ED 05/31 Cup hdl 43.02 +0.03 44.36 47.25 1.3M 1.4M 42
Buy Not Hit.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 15.1 -0.19 10.9 13.15 4.5M 4.4M 13.75
Current. Gapped higher but gave it back on rising volume.
FFIV 05/21 Test 18 16.02 -1.3 15.62 18.55 764K 750K 16
Exited. Dropped hard on strong volume.
FFIV 04/23 A Wedge 16.02 -1.3 15.34 18.32 764K 750K 15.23
Exited.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 11.05 -0.15 10.55 12.75 290K 195K 10.15
Current. Moving laterally over 11. Good action.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 11.05 -0.15 9.2 10.96 290K 195K 10.15
Current.
GNTA 05/29 Test BO 11.48 -0.14 11.62 14 2.7M 904K 10.74
Current. Gapped higher, ran, then gave it all back. Still holding the breakout but not what we like to see.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 47.65 -0.6 22.34 37.45 389K 198K 44.44
Current.
GSPN 05/24 Test BO 8.11 -0.15 7.42 10 4.1M 2.8M 7.15
Current. Gapped higher and gave it back but on lower volume. Still quite strong.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 16.06 +0.05 14.88 17.88 871K 1.2M 15.55
Current. Lateral move over the short term MVA and on low volume.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 16.06 +0.05 14.65 17 871K 1.2M 15.35
Current.
IBM 05/31 Cup hdl 87.33 -0.71 88.92 100 7.8M 10M 84.55
Buy Not Issued. Not doing it and will be under pressure Tuesday.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 34.88 -0.24 0 0 296K 375K 36
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 16.8 +0.48 11.6 15.32 1.1M 293K 15.3
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on a huge volume surge.
INSP 05/31 Test BO 14.4 -0.2 14.96 18 443K 500K 13.91
Buy Not Hit. Still working laterally in a good pattern.
JCOM 05/27 Cup hdl 35.4 -1.54 38.12 45.55 709K 1M 34.94
Current. Gapped higher but gave it back. Still in the pattern.
JNPR 05/22 Flat 13.99 +0.18 12.9 15.55 22M 17M 12.72
Current. Was ready to roll but the market cut it short.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 13.99 +0.18 10.6 13.42 22M 17M 12.72
Current.
KLAC 01/11 Test BO 45.47 -0.76 0 0 13M 0 0
Gapped higher and then gave it back but on lower volume.
LUV 05/27 Test 50 16.17 +0.11 16.45 20.45 2.3M 3.6M 15.35
Buy Not Hit.
MAT 05/20 Put 21.48 -0.03 21.3 19.45 2.7M 2.5M 21.95
Current. Tapped the 50 day on the high and fell back. Needs to fail here.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 23.31 +0.01 21.25 25.48 474K 825K 21.65
Current. Tried the next big move but gave it back.
MME 04/30 BO 47.06 -0.84 45.65 54.45 905K 634K 45.88
Current. Still working laterally. May be in the shakeout.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.63 +0.02 26.62 30 66M 57M 25.55
MVSN 05/31 Rv H&S 18.82 -0.33 19.59 23.55 1M 1M 18.22
Buy Not Issued.
NTES 04/01 Cup 29.8 -2.5 17 27 1.9M 1M 29
Current. Thudded to the 10 day MVA on rising, above average volume.
NVDA 05/08 Test BO 24.72 -1.45 22.62 27 13M 11M 23.15
Current. Gapped higher then fell, giving back the Friday move. Lower volume, but more points than we wanted to give back.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 33.36 -2.53 19.05 31 2.7M 1.2M 31.05
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA on the low as volume shot higher. Needs to hold up here.
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 48.83 -1.28 46.78 54 5.9M 8M 46.25
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 48.83 -1.28 38.85 45 5.9M 11M 46.25
Current.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 48.83 -1.28 41.4 50 5.9M 25M 46.25
QLGC 08/17 CCall 48.83 -1.28 36.48 0 5.9M 12M 46.25
Current.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 68.49 +2.2 0 0 510K 0 63.75
Super blast higher out of the month-long lateral consolidation.
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 6.26 -0.16 4.84 7.1 314K 132K 5.96
Current. Stumbling some here. Tapped 18 day MVA on the low and recovered, but needs to hold the line here.
RMBS 04/09 A Wedge 17.51 -0.39 17.55 21.45 1.9M 6.8M 15.94
Current. Still holding the gap higher. Waiting for the 10 day MVA to come up and send it higher again.
RRC 06/02 Flat 6.32 +0.32 6.42 8 459K 200K 5.94
New.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 16 -0.05 12.22 16 712K 696K 14.75
Current. Still working in the uptrend over the 10 day MVA.
SHRP 05/23 Cup hdl 23.46 +0.71 22.06 26.55 221K 350K 20.52
Buy Not Issued.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 10.89 +0.45 7.58 9.55 667K 125K 9
SINA 05/22 Cup hdl 15.02 -1.14 14.75 17.75 4.6M 2.5M 13.96
Current. Gapped higher but then turned over and sold to the 10 day MVA on higher, above average volume.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 15.02 -1.14 9.35 13.45 4.6M 2.5M 13.96
Current.
SNUS 06/02 FlyPlat 4 -0.05 4.28 5.95 162K 130K 3.98
New.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 25.86 -2.18 10.55 21.45 3.4M 800K 24.75
Current. Tough day for the internets, and SOHU sold down toward the 10 day on continued strong, above average volume.
STX 05/24 Test BO 15.54 +0.39 13.95 16.75 1.7M 2.9M 13.55
Current.
TEK 05/20 Cup hdl 21.06 -0.02 20.44 24.45 478K 500K 20.22
Current. Still working in the uptrend over the 10 day MVA but gave back the gap higher.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 49.95 -0.7 0 0 2.4M 5M 0
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 46 +0.7 43.75 52 578K 603K 42.85
Current. Ready for the next move.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 46 +0.7 38.6 44.38 578K 577K 42.85
Current.
TXN 05/28 Cup hdl 20.1 -0.4 20.85 24.75 14M 16M 19.39
Current. Gapped higher but fell back to some support at 20 on rising, above average volume.
UNT 05/28 Cup hdl 22.3 +0.3 22.25 26.75 186K 366K 20.84
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher but gave back much of the move on lower, below average volume.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 23 +1.46 23.45 28 3.1M 2M 20.94
Current. Huge move up but then gave $2 back as volume shot higher.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 37.79 -0.45 29.12 33.55 10M 8.3M 35.25
Current.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 20.46 +0.46 18.12 21.75 318K 226K 19
Current. Nice volume as UTHR started the move back up.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 27.43 -0.29 19.76 20 14M 8.5M 24.92
Current. Rallied sharply but then gave it all back on stronger volume. Looks ready to test back further.
WMT 02/05 Put 52.46 -0.15 0 0 9.5M 8.2M 0
Still playing around at the 200 day MVA.
WWCA 05/22 BO 11.1 +0.4 9.68 13 985K 824K 9.45
Still moving higher in the uptrend.
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 11.74 +0.52 6.95 8.42 11M 6.5M 10
Current. Rallied hard over 12 but gave most of it back as volume shot higher.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 28.66 -1.18 17.32 25 17M 20M 27.55
Current. Down hard to the 10 day MVA as were most internets.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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