|
|
stock option, Breakout test
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: ADPT; APOL; AXP; BGEN; CCU; CY; GSPN; HTCH; ICST; LGTO; MER; MERQ; NENG; NTN; NWK; ORCL; RHAT; UCOMA; WSTC
Best Plays:
1) CLRS: Very nice test of the breakout.
2) HPOL: Nice volume breakout.
3) BIO: Looks very good in this consolidation.
4) FLSH: Looks ready to resume the move.
5) OVRL: Starting up on rising volume.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/04/2003
CLRS (Clarus--$6.13; +0.09; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clrs.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CLRS is in the process of testing the breakout from a 4-month cup w/handle base showing excellent 7 to 1 accumulation. It blasted off on the breakout 9 sessions back and then pulled back on mostly lower volume to test the 18 day MVA (5.95) Tuesday and Wednesday. It started back up Wednesday on rising, above average volume. Money flow is excellent and is already moving up ahead of the stock.
Volume: 99.881K Avg Volume: 61.181K
BUY POINT: $6.28 Volume=92K Target=$7.55 Stop=$5.84
POSITION: - Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/clrs.html
Play Date: 06/04/2003
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$5.48; +0.48; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 3-month pattern, its first longer term consolidation after the move off of the October low. The base sports excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume) and excellent money flow. Wednesday HPOL was jumping up to the breakout on outstanding volume. Looking to move in when it clears the late-March high.
Volume: 1.694M Avg Volume: 280.045K
BUY POINT: $5.62 Volume=541K Target=$6.75 Stop=$5.23
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hpol.html
Play Date: 06/04/2003
VSAT (Viasat--$13.51; +1.17; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsat.html
STATUS: Flat base. VSAT is attempting the breakout from its 4.5 month flat base. This is its first consolidation since running up off of the August low (3.90) to 13.50. This lateral move has allowed it to work off the fluff, and Wednesday it was making the breakout on strong, above average volume. Looking to take positions on a further volume move.
Volume: 309.467K Avg Volume: 128.318K
BUY POINT: $13.62 Volume=192K Target=$16.45 Stop=$12.67
POSITION: IQS HV - Aug. $12.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsat.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/20/2003
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$33.45; +0.06; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ADVP continues to work in the 4-week lateral test. After failing the break higher Monday, ADVP tested the 18 day MVA again (32.60) and then started up Wednesday on much stronger volume. Getting ready to make the break higher, but want to see it clear 34 for new positions.
Volume: 1.474M Avg Volume: 1.547M
BUY POINT: New: $34.35 (orig. $32.85) Volume=2M Target=$39.22 Stop=$31.92
POSITION: QVD IF - Sept. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/advp.html
Play Date: 06/03/2003
BIO (Bio-rad Labs--$59.08; +0.58; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bio.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still working laterally in that very nice breakout test. The 10 day MVA (57.32) is rising to meet the stock, and when it does we anticipate another big jump higher.
Volume: 62.8K Avg Volume: 151.181K
BUY POINT: $60.12 Volume=226K Target=$70 Stop=$57
POSITION: BIO IL - Sept. $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bio.html
Play Date: 05/08/2003
EPIC (Epicor Software--$4.31; -0.19; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epic.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After exploding higher and giving us a nice gain, EPIC is testing the breakout, coming back to test the 10 day MVA on the Wednesday low (4.15) and rebounding on volume. Money flow continues to run higher, and we are expecting EPIC to rebound from this test for another strong move higher that we can profit from.
Volume: 336.976K Avg Volume: 153.863K
BUY POINT: New: 4.55 (orig. $3.15) Volume=300K Target=$6 (orig. positions $4) Stop=$3.85
POSITION: - Stock (no options)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/epic.html
Play Date: 05/22/2003
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$11.31; +0.19; no options): Memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA. FLSH broke out in May and made one 10 day MVA test 2 weeks later. It shot higher and is now making its second such test, moving laterally the past 5 sessions on lower volume. The 10 day MVA (10.88) is rising to meet it; when it does that typically touches off the next bounce higher. We are looking for that to take some new positions.
Volume: 162.682K Avg Volume: 183.727K
BUY POINT: New: $11.48 (orig. $10.55) Volume=225K Target=13.75 (orig. $12.75) Stop=$10.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flsh.html
Play Date: 05/31/2003
ICOS (Icos Corp.--$32.66; +1.13; optionable): Drug manufacturer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icos.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ICOS continues to move laterally over the 10 day MVA (30.98). It started to move up Wednesday on rising though still below average volume. Looking for a stronger volume move higher holding to the close to make sure it is a cleaner break higher.
Volume: 1.919M Avg Volume: 1.906M
BUY POINT: New: $33.15 (orig. $32.05) Volume=2.8M Target=$38.38 Stop=$29.81
POSITION: IIQ JF - Oct. $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/icos.html
Play Date: 05/10/2003
OVRL (Overland Storage--$18.15; +0.55; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ovrl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. OVRL has turned the test into a 6-week cup, holding over the 50 day MVA (16.75) on the lows. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in this lateral move, and Wednesday volume started to jump higher on strong, above average volume. Money flow continues to move up ahead of price, and we are looking for another volume move to hold near the close.
Volume: 223.05K Avg Volume: 105.545K
BUY POINT: New: $18.75 (orig. $18.05) Volume=125K Target=$21.68 Stop=$16.88
POSITION: QOJ HW - Aug. $17.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ovrl.html
Play Date: 04/09/2003
RMBS (Rambus--$17.95; +0.4; optionable): Memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmbs.html
STATUS: Ascending Triangle. Since blasting higher 6 sessiosn back on a strong breakout, RMBS has moved laterally just below 18, holding onto the gain. If INTC provides some good guidance RMBS could benefit. We may see it start up ahead of the report after the Thursday close. If there is volume on the move we will look at entering a partial position.
Volume: 952.64K Avg Volume: 2.188M
BUY POINT: New: 18.25 (orig. $17.55) Volume=6.8M Target=$21.45 Stop=$15.94
POSITION: BNQ HC - Aug. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rmbs.html
Play Date: 05/28/2003
SRNA (Serena Software--$19.99; +0.04; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srna.html
STATUS: Reverse head & shoulders. SRNA started the breakout Wednesday on some strong volume, but it could not hold the move (high at 20.62). It peeled back but managed to hold the pattern. Never like the intraday reversals on breakout attempts. Accumulation is excellent at 7 to 2 and money flow continues to lead higher. Needs to make the next breakout attempt hold.
Volume: 1.183M Avg Volume: 479.09K
BUY POINT: $20.35 Volume=700K Target=$24.45 Stop=$18.78
POSITION: NHU HD - Aug. $20c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/srna.html
Play Date: 06/02/2003
XING (Qiao Zing Telephone--$5.11; -0.15; no options): Chinese residential telephones
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xing.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. XING continues to move laterally in the test of the breakout from its 5.5 month base. It tried to resume the move Monday but reversed from the high, and Tuesday and Wednesday it moved laterally on lower volume. Accumulation in the base was outstanding at 6 to 1, so we are patiently waiting for a strong volume breakout to hold toward the close.
Volume: 166.085K Avg Volume: 163.727K
BUY POINT: $5.44 Volume=230K Target=$7.95 Stop=$5.06
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xing.html
End part 2 of 3
|
stock option
Breakout test
|
