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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: ADIC; AXP; BRCM; C; EBAY; GSPN; KLAC; SINA; SOHU; TSCO; UNTD
Wednesday Plays:
DCTM: Still very solid in its lateral move.
TSCM: Volume started up but TSCM was not ready to move. Still looks solid.
INSP: Big surge higher intraday could not hold as volume jumped. Still looks good.
Best Plays:
1) FLR: Starting the breakout on strong volume.
2) FLSH: Ready for the next leg.
3) Continuing: DCTM is still very solid. INSP could try again. STX is testing the 10 day MVA with a doji. LUV is showing some volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/04/2003
FLR (Fluor Corp.--$36.48; +1.7; optionable): Technical services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flr.html
STATUS: Cup. This is FLR's second small cup since coming off the bottom in October. It has moved laterally the past 9 weeks over the 50 day MVA (34), putting in solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume) during that time. Wednesday FLR was up sharply on a strong, above average volume jump in trade. Looking for the stock to clear the April high to move into positions.
Volume: 800.1K Avg Volume: 695.954K
BUY POINT: $36.96 Volume=1M Target=$44 Stop=$34.45
POSITION: FLR JG - Oct. $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/flr.html
Play Date: 05/10/2003
OVRL (Overland Storage--$18.15; +0.55; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ovrl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. OVRL has turned the test of its breakout from the January to April cup with handle into a 6-week cup, holding over the 50 day MVA (16.75) on the lows. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in this lateral move, and Wednesday volume started to jump higher on strong, above average volume. Money flow continues to move up ahead of price, and we are looking for another volume move to hold near the close.
Volume: 223.05K Avg Volume: 105.545K
BUY POINT: $18.58 Volume=150K Target=$22.34 Stop=$17.28
POSITION: QOJ HW - Aug. $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ovrl.htm
Continuing plays that look good:
Play Date: 05/22/2003
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$11.31; +0.19; no options): Memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
STATUS: Testing the 10 day MVA. FLSH broke out in May and made one 10 day MVA test 2 weeks later. It shot higher and is now making its second such test, moving laterally the past 5 sessions on lower volume. The 10 day MVA (10.88) is rising to meet it; when it does that typically touches off the next bounce higher. We are looking for that to take some new positions.
Volume: 162.682K Avg Volume: 183.727K
BUY POINT: New: $11.48 (orig. $10.55) Volume=225K Target=13.75 (orig. $12.75) Stop=$10.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/flsh.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
AMZN 05/03 BO 35.39 +0.16 30.3 35.45 9.4M 12M 32.45
Current. Held the 10 day MVA and moved higher though not a strong move Wednesday.
WMT 02/05 Put 53.86 +1.01 0 0 9M 8.2M 0
Moving up off the 200 day MVA on some rising, above average volume.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.87 -0.01 26.62 30 84M 57M 25.55
Up to the 50 day MVA, but showing a doji on higher volume. Just does not look good.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABTL 05/21 Test BO 6.03 +0.03 5.25 6.94 454K 371K 4.88
Current. Showing a doji closing off the intraday high. After the long move up it may be ready to make a pullback in the continuing uptrend.
ADIC 05/13 DB hdl 10.95 +0.41 9.64 11.65 596K 521K 9.78
Current. After the lateral consolidation, a nice move higher.
AETH 05/14 Cup hdl 5.07 +0.02 4.45 5.45 458K 244K 4.35
Current. Lateral move at 5 as the 10 day MVA rises to meet it. Not bad.
AGEN 05/13 Cup hdl 13.22 +0.02 10.95 13.22 1M 417K 10.97
Current. Testing the move some after a strong break higher Monday.
AMZN 05/03 BO 35.39 +0.16 30.3 35.45 9.4M 12M 32.45
Current. Held the 10 day MVA and moved higher though not a strong move Wednesday.
AVID 05/22 Flat 36.77 +1 29.06 34.78 924K 750K 27.15
Buy Not Issued. Started higher again though volume backed off. Super move.
AXP 05/24 Test BO 43.46 +1.11 40.75 46.45 5.1M 6M 39.94
Current. Very nice break higher on the continued breakout run.
BCE 04/05 Cup 22.38 +0.08 19.9 23.75 259K 550K 21.05
Current. Gapped higher and closed off the high as volume faded. Looks as if it will need to come back toward 22.
BLTI 02/10 Test BO 14.65 +0.34 7.2 13.45 378K 300K 13.25
Current. Struggling at 15, but still in good shape. Needs to hold 14 on any test. Stop moved up.
BRCM 05/03 Cup hdl 26.09 +1.54 19.2 22.94 22M 15M 21.15
Current. Super blast higher on volume.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 43.02 +0.77 41.25 48.55 13M 23M 39.38
Current. Another move higher in a strong upside move.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 32.09 +0.17 30.98 37.12 2.6M 1.8M 29.88
Current.
CTL 05/01 Cup hdl 34.46 +0.36 32 38 443K 1.3M 32.45
Current. Moving to another recent high but volume is backing off. Need to be careful here.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 22.68 +0.57 14.12 17.25 2.8M 5.3M 20.50
Current. Rose again in its uptrend over the 10 day but volume continues to decline.
DCLK 04/26 Test BO 10.54 +0.37 9.04 11.35 2.2M 1.9M 9.48
Current. Nice bounce off the 10 day MVA on lower though still solid above average volume.
DCTM 06/03 Test BO 21.39 +0.39 21.78 26 1M 1.5M 20.26
Buy Not Hit. Still in the solid lateral move.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 27.24 -0.51 23.81 28.42 404K 225K 28.35
Current. Testing the 50 day MVA on the close as volume rose. Giving it a chance to bounce here as it has been a strong mover with good support.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 27.24 -0.51 22.75 27.35 404K 225K 28.35
Current.
DRIV 05/08 Test BO 19.42 -0.58 17.62 20.95 2.1M 1.4M 17.96
Current. Hard time getting over 20, falling back on strong volume. Considering just taking the $ off the table here.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 102.65 +3.61 69.45 92 9M 12M 96
Current. Tremendous surge off the 18 day MVA doji shown Tuesday.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 102.65 +3.61 62.45 92 9M 12M 94.92
Current.
ED 05/31 Cup hdl 43.6 +0.31 44.36 47.25 719K 1.4M 42
Buy Not Hit.
FDRY 04/29 Cup hdl 15.89 +0.19 10.9 13.15 3.2M 4.4M 13.75
Current. Still working in the 45 degree uptrend over the 10 day MVA. Getting late in the run up the short term MVA.
FLR 06/04 Cup 36.48 +1.7 36.96 44 800K 1M 34.45
New.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 11.31 +0.19 10.55 12.75 163K 195K 10.15
Current.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 11.31 +0.19 9.2 10.96 163K 195K 10.15
Current.
GNTA 05/29 Test BO 11.4 +0.44 11.62 14 1.7M 904K 10.74
Current. Holding up in the pattern quite well.
GRMN 11/06 Cup hdl 49.12 +0.67 22.34 37.45 763K 198K 44.44
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA in a nice recovery. Volume shooting up.
GSPN 05/24 Test BO 9 +0.61 7.42 10 4.2M 2.8M 7.15
Current. Super break higher.
HAS 04/12 Test BO 16.4 +0.43 14.88 17.88 881K 1.2M 15.55
Current. Starting up out of the lateral consolidation.
HAS 03/31 Test BO 16.4 +0.43 14.65 17 881K 1.2M 15.35
Current.
HYSL 06/04 Cup hdl 34.5 +3.3 33.05 39.66 2.1M 1.1M 30.74
Current. This was a bonus play we saw making a strong move intraday
and issued an alert. Beautiful pattern and move.
IBM 05/31 Cup hdl 84.25 +0.43 88.92 100 11M 10M 84.55
Buy Not Issued.
IBM 01/11 Cup hdl 84.25 +0.43 0 0 11M 14M 0
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 35.16 +0.31 0 0 219K 375K 36
ILXO 04/15 Cup hdl 15.99 +0.5 11.6 15.32 308K 293K 15.3
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Nice gain still (took some gain earlier), so if does not hold we will take the rest of the gain. Somewhat toppy short head and shoulders here.
INSP 05/31 Test BO 14.6 +0.36 14.96 18 675K 500K 13.91
Buy Not Issued.
JCOM 05/27 Cup hdl 35.5 +1.91 38.12 45.55 969K 1M 34.94
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA on strong, above average volume. We were waiting to see if it could bounce and we will let it run if it will.
JNPR 05/22 Flat 14.39 +0.52 12.9 15.55 17M 17M 12.72
Current. Still working higher over the 10 day MVA.
JNPR 04/15 Flat 14.39 +0.52 10.6 13.42 17M 17M 12.72
Current.
KLAC 01/11 Test BO 49.11 +1.75 0 0 16M 0 0
Incredible surge higher continued.
LUV 05/27 Test 50 16.35 +0.27 16.45 20.45 2.7M 3.6M 15.35
Buy Not Hit. Got some volume as it started toward the breakout.
MAT 05/20 Put 21.71 +0.31 21.3 19.45 1.7M 2.5M 21.95
Current. Up to the 50 day MVA. Needs to fail or we just bag it.
MDCO 05/10 Test 18 24.02 +0.22 21.25 25.48 560K 825K 21.65
Current. Still in the solid uptrend over the 10 day MVA and letting it move.
MME 04/30 BO 47.51 +0.57 45.65 54.45 476K 634K 45.88
Current. Starting up on some volume. May be ready for the next break higher.
MSFT 01/11 A Wedge 24.87 -0.01 26.62 30 84M 57M 25.55
Up to the 50 day MVA, but showing a doji on higher volume. Just does not look good.
MVSN 05/31 Rv H&S 19.51 +0.51 19.6 23.55 1.4M 1M 18.23
Current. Starting up on strong volume.
NTES 04/01 Cup 33.74 +0.83 17 27 3.1M 1M 29
Current. Stronger volume but could not make a lot of headway after that strong surge Tuesday.
NVDA 05/08 Test BO 25.83 +0.6 22.62 27 9.8M 11M 23.15
Current. Moving back up again after the Monday tank.
OVRL 06/04 Cup 18.15 +0.55 18.58 22.34 223K 150K 17.28
New.
OVTI 02/24 Cup hdl 31.83 -0.75 19.05 31 3M 1.2M 31.05
Current. Held the 18 day MVA with a doji on high volume. Will see if that produces another bounce as it did last time.
QLGC 05/17 Test BO 50.42 +0.62 46.78 54 4.9M 8M 46.25
QLGC 03/15 Test BO 50.42 +0.62 38.85 45 4.9M 11M 46.25
Current. Up again but volume was lower again.
QLGC 11/07 Test BO 50.42 +0.62 41.4 50 4.9M 25M 46.25
QLGC 08/17 CCall 50.42 +0.62 36.48 0 4.9M 12M 46.25
Current.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 70.36 +1.65 0 0 327K 0 63.75
RGEN 04/07 Test 18 6.12 +0.06 4.84 7.1 151K 132K 5.96
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA but on very low volume. It needs to bounce here on some volume or we close it. The pattern is getting toppy.
RMBS 04/09 A Wedge 17.95 +0.4 17.55 21.45 953K 6.8M 15.94
Current.
RRC 06/02 Flat 6.5 +0.02 6.5 8.06 227K 200K 6.12
Current. Rallied well but gave most of the move back.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 16 +0.09 12.22 16 149K 696K 14.75
Current. Very tight, lateral move over the 10 day MVA. Should be ready for its next leg up soon.
SHRP 05/23 Cup hdl 23.45 +0.21 22.06 26.55 85K 350K 20.52
Buy Not Issued.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 11.3 +0.21 7.58 9.55 862K 125K 9
SINA 05/22 Cup hdl 16.96 +1.1 14.75 17.75 5M 2.5M 13.96
Current. Another strong volume move after the 10 day MVA test.
SINA 04/12 Cup hdl 16.96 +1.1 9.35 13.45 5M 2.5M 13.96
Current.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 29.85 +1.48 10.55 21.45 3.7M 800K 24.75
Current. Rallying on strong volume after the 10 day MVA test.
STX 05/24 Test BO 14.97 +0.11 13.95 16.75 2.2M 2.9M 13.55
Current. Testing the 10 day MVA with a doji.
TEK 05/20 Cup hdl 21.45 +0.1 20.44 24.45 481K 500K 20.22
Current. Still a volume move over the 10 day MVA.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 49.8 -0.04 0 0 1.9M 5M 0
TSCM 06/03 Test BO 5.13 +0.08 5.32 6.55 343K 225K 4.95
Buy Not Hit. Still looks very good on this pullback.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 48.88 +1.62 46.85 55.25 424K 603K 44
Current. Another super move higher.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 48.88 +1.62 43.75 52 424K 603K 42.85
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 48.88 +1.62 38.6 44.38 424K 577K 42.85
Current.
TXN 05/28 Cup hdl 21.1 +0.48 20.85 24.75 12M 16M 19.39
Current. Nice volume move higher.
UNT 05/28 Cup hdl 22.17 -0.31 22.25 26.75 131K 366K 20.84
Buy Not Issued. Hanging in there.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 25.71 +2.46 23.45 28 2.4M 2M 20.94
Current. Super, super move.
USAI 03/25 Cup hdl 38.32 +0.92 29.12 33.55 7.9M 8.3M 35.25
Current. Still working to clear 38 in a breakaway move.
UTHR 04/30 Cup hdl 20.87 +0.28 18.12 21.75 164K 226K 19
Current. Nice move but not much volume.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 28.45 +0.65 19.76 20 8.7M 8.5M 24.92
Current. Still moving up. Looking to buy back the calls, but it is not giving us much chance to do so.
WMT 02/05 Put 53.86 +1.01 0 0 9M 8.2M 0
Moving up off the 200 day MVA on some rising, above average volume.
WWCA 05/22 BO 11.6 +0.75 9.68 13 1.1M 824K 9.45
XMSR 04/07 Test BO 13 +0.5 6.95 8.42 8.7M 6.5M 11.25
Current. Another nice move on above average volume.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 29.59 +1.04 17.32 25 21M 20M 27.55
Current. Nice volume bounce up off the 18 day MVA!
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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