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top stock pick, stock split
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: CFW; CKP; IMAX
Best Plays:
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/19/2003
NGAS (Daugthery Resources--$5.17; +0.5; no options): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ngas.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. NGAS blasted out of a nice flat base in May and is now on its second test of the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA) on that run. It surged over 6 on its first bounce and came back Thursday to test the 18 day MVA on the low (4.20). From there it rallied hard to close positive on much stronger volume. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation in the base, and money flow remains outstanding, soaring up ahead of the stock even as it pulled back to test. Looks ready with this volume move Thursday.
Volume: 534.457K Avg Volume: 189.136K
BUY POINT: $5.28 Volume=285K Target=$6.75 Stop=$4.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ngas.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/19/2003
PDLI (Protein Design Labs--$15.35; -1.83; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
STATUS: Put. Biotechs have been hot, but now they air is being let out. PDLI is in the midst of a high volume move lower, breaking through the 18 day MVA (16.33) Thursday. That break was a signal that PDLI is going a bit deeper here and we want to take advantage of the downside momentum as it does. Has plenty of room down to the simple 50 day MVA (12.49), and the momentum will most likely carry it a bit past that level.
Volume: 5.136M Avg Volume: 2.071M
BUY POINT: $15.22 Volume=2.5M Target=$12.22 Stop=$16.38
POSITION: PQI TW - Aug. $17.50p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pdli.html
Play Date: 06/19/2003
RKY (Adolph Coors--$51.07; -2.51; optionable): Beer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rky.html
STATUS: Put. RKY is struggling again, falling below the 50 day MVA (52.75) Thursday on a big volume surge. Money flow is fading, and RKY has been weak a long time, moving laterally below the 200 day MVA (57), trying to rebuild. It looks as if that attempt is going to have another setback.
Volume: 1.117M Avg Volume: 445.409K
BUY POINT: $50.94 Volume=668K Target=$47.06 Stop=$52.45
POSITION: RKY VK - Oct. $55p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rky.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/04/2003
HYSL (Hyperion Solutions--$36.43; +0.24; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hysl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Held up even as the market did not, moving laterally over 36 as volume surged above average. Looking for it to come back some towar 35.50, and then we want to see a strong move up from there.
Volume: 1.022M Avg Volume: 753.681K
BUY POINT: New: $36.78 (orig. $33.05) Volume=1.1M Target=New: $44 (orig. positions: $39.66) Stop=$33.22
POSITION: WQE KG - Nov. $35c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hysl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/12/2003
AFL (Aflac--$31.3; -0.16; optionable): Accident & health insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afl.html
STATUS: Head & shoulders. AFL has now come back to test the 200 day MVA (31.55) and then rolled over Thursday on once again rising, above average volume. It is still struggling below that level, and this looks as if it could be the last gasp test. Poor money flow and continued distribution.
Volume: 2.741M Avg Volume: 2.075M
BUY POINT: New: $31.12 (orig. $30.78) Volume=2.8M Target=$28 Stop=$31.85
POSITION: AFL TG - Aug. $35p (-82 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/afl.html
Play Date: 06/16/2003
HB (Hillenbrand--$49.93; -0.48; optionable): Personal services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hb.html
STATUS: Put. A final test of the 50 and 18 day MVA on the Thursday intraday high (50.70), and then HB rolled over on rising, above average volume. Money flow is tanking and the stock is under distribution.
Volume: 166.6K Avg Volume: 143.227K
BUY POINT: New: From here (orig. $49.95) Volume=175K Target=$46.95 Stop=$50.78
POSITION: HB UJ - Sept. $50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hb.html
Play Date: 06/14/2003
XLNX (Xilinx--$26.16; -0.39; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: Put. XLNX tried to move back to the 50 day MVA, but looks to be failing as it dropped from 27. Volume was back below average, however. WE want to see it move through 26 on a strong shot of volume to enter.
Volume: 8.329M Avg Volume: 9.897M
BUY POINT: $25.95. Volume=13M Target=$22.12 Stop=$27
POSITION: XLQ UY - Sept. 27.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xlnx.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AFL 06/12 H&S 31.3 -0.16 30.78 28 2.7M 2.8M 31.85
Current.
ANSI 06/10 PreSplt 50.72 -2.29 49.72 56.25 524K 300K 47.94
Current.
APC 06/14 Put 45.76 +0.59 45.05 41.12 2.4M 3.9M 46.35
Current.
APOL 05/27 Test 50 60.96 -1.96 55.07 62 1.6M 2.7M 58.25
Current.
AVP 03/29 BO 63.2 +0.44 57.58 65.88 1.5M 1.7M 60.12
Current.
BBBY 04/26 Test 18 40.57 -1.86 39.12 46.55 11M 4M 41.94
Current.
BCR 05/10 A Wedge 71.17 -0.19 64.4 73.75 543K 477K 70.35
Current.
BG 05/31 PreSplt 29.15 -0.9 29.28 35 1.1M 548K 29.55
Exited. Started below the 18 day MVA so we closed it with a
trailing stop.
BGEN 05/24 Rv H&S 43.25 -2.4 42.35 49.55 4.9M 4.5M 44.65
Exited. Took the rest of the gain off the tabel with a trailing
stop as BGEN broke the 18 day MVA.
BPOP 05/22 Test BO 38.51 -0.7 37.95 44 342K 200K 39.35
Exited. Took the money off the table with a trailing stop.
BPOP 04/03 Cup hdl 38.51 -0.7 35.25 40.45 342K 200K 39.35
Exited. Took the rest of the gain off the table with a trailing
stop.
BSC 05/10 BO 76.06 -3.95 70.85 80.65 2.7M 1.9M 77.45
Exited. Closed the remaining position as BSC moved through
the 18 day MVA.
CECO 05/29 Test 50 66.92 -2.4 62.55 73.45 957K 1M 59.75
Current.
CEDC 05/29 PreSplt 22.45 -0.54 21.38 24.58 102K 165K 21
Buy Not Issued.
CELG 05/14 A Wedge 31.29 -2.39 30.98 37.12 3.2M 1.8M 32.45
Exited. Took the rest of the gain off the table as it broke
the 18 day MVA.
CFW 06/11 Cup hdl 7.82 +0.42 7.75 9.35 166K 118K 7.16
Current. Nice volume move up off the 10 day MVA test.
CHIR 05/31 Test BO 44.75 -2.35 45.33 54 2.2M 2M 45
Exited. Cut through the 18 day MVA.
CHMD 06/10 FlyPlat 9.42 -0.26 10.12 12.25 137K 155K 9.41
Buy Not Issued.
CMVT 05/24 Test BO 16.34 -0.16 13.75 16.55 2.3M 4.4M 16
Current.
CNTE 05/29 Cup hdl 38.63 -0.47 35.05 40.45 89K 180K 35.02
Current.
CRIS 06/05 A Wedge 4.05 -0.25 3.7 4.72 542K 1.1M 3.72
Current.
CTXS 03/29 Cup hdl 21.45 -1 14.12 17.25 4.4M 5.3M 21.65
Exited. Used a trailing stop to take the rest of the gain off
the table.
CY 06/10 Test BO 12.44 -0.18 12.55 15.12 1.7M 3.5M 11.67
Buy Not Issued.
CZN 04/24 Cup hdl 12.92 -0.29 11.34 13.57 1.8M 156K 12.72
Current.
DVA 05/17 Cup hdl 26.49 +0.08 25.11 30 598K 573K 25.11
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 101.9 -0.92 80.08 92 5.1M 8M 94.55
Current.
ECL 05/22 Test 18 26.65 -0.21 25.85 27.65 1.1M 1M 26.42
Current.
ERES 04/30 PreSplt 20.8 -0.6 15.08 17.58 599K 496K 18.22
Current.
ERES 01/30 Cup hdl 20.8 -0.6 15.08 17.58 599K 436K 18.22
Current.
ESI 06/07 H&S 27.54 -0.86 26.75 23.88 329K 485K 28.05
Current.
ETN 05/31 Cup hdl 81.25 -1.37 84.25 100 561K 650K 80.85
Buy Not Issued.
EVOL 06/09 Cup 3.6 -0.03 4.28 5.35 169K 307K 3.95
Buy Not Issued.
FDRY 06/18 Test 18 15.36 -0.64 16.26 19.55 3M 5M 15.12
Buy Not Hit.
FDX 03/24 Cup hdl 63.52 -0.98 57.85 66 1.1M 2.2M 63.05
Current.
FIC 06/07 Test 50 52.28 -0.27 54.88 62.65 398K 630K 53.55
Buy Not Issued.
FLIR 05/08 PreSplt 31.43 +0.07 25.85 29.38 298K 401K 29.78
Current.
FLO 06/19 PreSplt 30 -0.25 30.75 35 97K 200K 28.94
New.
FRED 06/05 Test BO 36.59 +0.6 37.12 42.75 451K 414K 34.75
Buy Not Issued.
GDW 05/01 Test BO 81.91 -1.84 83.6 95.88 779K 900K 81.38
Current.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 39.39 -0.89 41.75 48 623K 766K 38.02
Current.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 39.39 -0.89 26.5 30.75 623K 521K 37.38
Current.
GTK 06/07 Flat 39.86 +1.61 35.42 41 1.9M 850K 35.95
Current.
HAR 05/13 Test BO 77.8 +0.15 70.25 80.45 197K 619K 73.05
Current.
HB 06/16 Put 49.93 -0.48 49.95 46.95 167K 175K 50.78
Current. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the high and rolled over on
some rising volume.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 6.65 -0.02 6.7 8.38 426K 541K 6.12
Current.
IDC 05/29 BO 17.21 -0.69 16.55 19.88 247K 122K 16.35
Current.
IGT 06/18 PreSplt 95.61 -0.39 96.55 102.55 925K 1M 94.95
Buy Not Issued. Another good test of the 10 day MVA as IGT snugs up
a bit more. Getting close.
INGR 06/14 Test 18 22.13 -0.79 22.75 27.35 449K 475K 21.16
Current.
INTV 06/14 Test BO 4.24 +0.35 3.84 5 186K 195K 3.57
Buy Not Issued. Pretty solid move. Volume was less than what we wanted,
but it was good enough to enter. We were lulled to
sleep by it.
ISIL 06/17 A Wedge 25.81 +0.15 25.6 30.55 5.2M 4.5M 23.65
Current.
JPM 05/24 Test BO 34.45 -0.62 32.58 36.45 11M 1.2M 33.95
Current.
JPM 04/01 Test BO 34.45 -0.62 24.96 28.55 11M 1.2M 33.95
Current.
KROL 06/14 Test BO 26.24 -0.54 26.05 30.95 603K 716K 24.12
Current.
KSWS 04/21 FlyPlat 35 -0.96 30.66 35.75 156K 304K 33.75
LCI 05/06 Cup hdl 21.01 -1.5 17.22 20.51 275K 187K 20.25
Current.
LGTO 06/10 Test BO 8.11 -0.13 8.7 10.28 2.5M 2M 7.94
Current.
LGTO 05/22 A Wedge 8.11 -0.13 7.06 8.75 2.5M 2M 7.94
Current.
LLTC 06/12 Dbl Top 33.6 -0.1 32.85 29.45 7.6M 8.5M 33.68
Current.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 64.65 -0.84 58.5 67.78 681K 610K 62.74
Current.
LXK 05/20 Test 50 75.64 -1.35 71.4 79.55 1.1M 1.8M 71.45
Current.
MAT 05/20 Put 20.73 0 21.3 19.45 4.8M 2.5M 21.25
Current.
MME 04/30 BO 51.25 -1.91 45.65 54.45 514K 634K 49.18
Current.
MRGE 04/24 Rv H&S 13.15 +0.16 8.06 10.45 180K 65K 11.98
Current.
MUSE 05/03 Test 18 9.4 -0.4 7.75 9.35 1.3M 2M 8.96
Current.
MVL 03/03 BO 22.9 -1.1 11.82 21 2.1M 675K 21.88
Current.
NCEN 05/31 PreSplt 45.77 -0.89 48.25 54.88 540K 700K 44.87
Current.
NGAS 06/19 Test BO 5.17 +0.5 5.28 6.75 534K 285K 4.75
New.
OIIM 06/17 BO 15.8 -0.75 16.38 19.94 150K 400K 15.05
Current.
OVRL 06/14 Cup hdl 20.36 -0.67 21.05 24.25 93K 125K 19
Current.
OVRL 06/11 Test BO 20.36 -0.67 19.06 22.85 93K 125K 17.78
Current.
OVRL 06/04 Cup 20.36 -0.67 18.85 22.94 93K 150K 17.65
Current.
PACR 06/17 BO 19 -0.98 19.78 23.65 152K 275K 18.32
Buy Not Issued.
PDLI 06/19 Put 15.35 -1.83 15.22 12.22 5.1M 2.5M 16.38
New.
PIXR 06/16 Cup hdl 59.15 -2.46 59.52 68.45 705K 1.2M 57.75
Buy Not Issued.
PRAA 05/10 Test BO 31.06 -1.91 28.71 34.25 248K 185K 28.75
Current.
PRGO 06/03 Test BO 15.8 -0.38 15.55 18.48 196K 432K 14.65
Buy Not Issued.
PRXL 06/12 DB hdl 14.31 -0.24 14.52 17.45 54K 167K 13.68
Buy Not Issued.
PWN 05/07 BO 12.42 -0.48 11.66 13.94 53K 117K 11.95
Current.
RAVN 05/24 Cup hdl 20.5 +0.1 18.65 22.35 31K 40K 20.03
Current.
RHAT 05/27 Test 18 7.7 -0.57 7.94 9.55 4.3M 1.4M 7.65
Current.
SCSS 04/26 Cup hdl 16.69 -0.31 12.22 16 462K 696K 15.94
Current.
SHRP 05/23 Cup hdl 26.85 -1.24 22.06 26.55 168K 350K 25.45
Target Hit.
SIGM 05/06 Cup hdl 9.26 -0.75 7.58 9.55 805K 125K 10.35
SLM 06/02 Test BO 123.2 -2.12 117.75 125 1.2M 1.5M 120.45
Target Hit. Took the rest of the nice gain.
SOHU 03/20 Dbl btm 27.14 -4.04 10.55 21.45 8.1M 800K 29.25
Exited. Sliced through the 18 day so took the rest of the gain.
Can pick it up again at the 50 day MVA.
SRNA 05/28 Rv H&S 20.86 -0.65 20.42 24.45 521K 700K 19.95
Current.
SYK 06/07 Cup 69.5 -1.63 70.95 81.45 1.1M 1.4M 69.38
Current.
SYMC 06/04 Rv H&S 46.91 -1.31 48.55 55.55 2.4M 750K 46.25
Current.
TALK 06/03 Rv H&S 10.63 -0.92 10.08 12.12 747K 405K 11.62
Exited. Trailing stop as it undercut the 18 day MVA.
TBL 06/03 Test BO 52.47 +0.1 53.05 60.88 112K 514K 50.12
Current.
TPC 06/17 Test BO 5.48 -0.02 5.55 7.15 201K 466K 5.16
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher but could not hold the move.
TRMB 05/29 Flat 25.65 -0.15 26.15 30.28 110K 350K 25.35
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 48.81 -2.09 46.85 55.25 427K 603K 47.94
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 48.81 -2.09 43.75 52 427K 603K 47.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 48.81 -2.09 38.6 44.38 427K 577K 47.94
Current.
TSM 06/18 Test 18 10.65 -0.01 10.82 13 5.1M 9M 10.06
Buy Not Issued. Edged higher, but no volume.
UCBH 03/24 Cup 27.9 -0.9 22.03 24.75 511K 200K 26.88
UNH 05/10 PreSplt 49.93 -2.21 94.35 100 4.5M 2M 102.55
Current. Took the rest of the nice split run.
UNTD 06/10 Test BO 26.45 -0.47 24.15 29 1.1M 2M 22.46
Buy Not Issued.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 26.45 -0.47 23.45 28 1.1M 2M 23.15
Current.
UOPX 10/10 Rv H&S 49.44 -1.5 48.6 58 301K 350K 45.75
Current.
WPI 05/05 Flat 40.27 -1.75 31.62 38 2.4M 1.9M 40.45
Current.
WWCA 05/22 BO 12.23 +0.24 11.42 13.85 2.2M 824K 10.44
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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top stock pick
stock split
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