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us stock market, stock option
Begin part 2 of 3
Again we apologize for the tardy report. Prep for tropical storm Claudette and Jon Johnson's hospital visit have slowed the reports tonight.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: CHINA; CTV; EPIC; FLSH; FSII; GSPN; HTCH; ICST; INET; MER; MERQ; MOBE; MTSN; NVLS; PPDI; PSEM; RINO; RKY; STG; SWIR; VTSS
Best Plays:
1) CTV: Nice breakout test.
2) FSII: Very nice cup with handle base.
3) JNPR: Ready for the next move higher as volume spikes higher Friday.
4) FDRY: Very nice breakout test with a tight doji on the 10 day MVA.
5) NVLS: Tight doji on the 18 and 10 day MVA.
6) IDT: Volume spikes in the handle are saying be ready for the move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/14/2003
FFIV (F5 Networks--$18; +0.81; optionable): Net services and software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Ascending Triangle. FFIV is in a 5 week triangle, trying to make the breakout move Monday but falling back just below the breakout point. Strong volume, but with the market coming back it was not enough to hold the breakout. Outstanding accumulation at 5 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Excellent money flow as well, and accumulation is ready to breakout. Looking for another strong surge on volume to hold into the close to jump on this one.
Volume: 1.216M Avg Volume: 524.272K
BUY POINT: $18.96 Volume=800K Target=$23 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: FLK JW - Oct. $17.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 07/14/2003
GGNS (Genus--$3.4; +0.42; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggns.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Breaking out of a 6.5 month base sporting outstanding 10 to 2 accumulation. Volume surged Monday as GGNS made the move, supported by that strong accumulation and surging money flow. On a further move relative strength is ready to breakout as well, a good indication of the strength in the stock and the move.
Volume: 692.299K Avg Volume: 162.272K
BUY POINT: $3.46 Volume=250K Target=$4.45 Stop=$3.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ggns.html
Play Date: 07/14/2003
SCH (Charles Schwab--$11.55; +0.66; optionable): Brokerage services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sch.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Financial services continue to perform well ahead of a perceived economic recovery and SCH is no exception. It is working in the handle of a 6 month base sporting solid 8 to 5 accumulation.and surging money flow. Monday it was breaking higher after making a higher low at the 18 day MVA (10.85) on solid, above average volume. Ready to move in as it pushes through the buy point on strong volume.
Volume: 6.851M Avg Volume: 4.996M
BUY POINT: $11.92 Volume=7.5M Target=$14.45 Stop=$11.05
POSITION: SCN IB - Sept. $10c (87 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sch.html
Play Date: 07/14/2003
TSG (Sabre Holdings--$26.65; +0.42; optionable): Information & delivery software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TSG is working in the handle of a 11 month base sporting solid 14 to 8 accumulation. In addition money flow is moving higher ahead of the price, showing a nice positive divergence (higher now than it was last time it was at this price. It is trying to make the move out of the handle, showing rising volume last Friday. It needs to give us a clean breakaway move on much stronger trade.
Volume: 918.5K Avg Volume: 1.036M
BUY POINT: $27.12 Volume=1.5M Target=$33 Stop=$25.22
POSITION: TSG KE - Nov. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tsg.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/28/2003
ADAT (Authentidate--$3.67; -0.07; no options): Authentication software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adat.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very nice last shakeout in the handle as ADAT tapped the 18 day MVA on the low yet again (3.60) and rebounding to close just over the 10 day MVA. Volume remains very low as it tries to remove the last sellers during the handle. Solid accumulation at 7 to 5 (7 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume) and surging money flow. Just waiting for the move.
Volume: 43.47K Avg Volume: 106.227K
BUY POINT: $3.95 Volume=201K Target=$5 Stop=$3.67
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adat.html
Play Date: 07/09/2003
CGNX (Cognex--$25.6; +0.45; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgnx.html
STATUS: Breakout. CGNX continued the move higher Monday, but after gapping higher it ran into 26 on the high, its recent resistance point. It is testing the breakout from a 7 month ascending triangle with excellent 10 to 5 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume). Volume was not there Monday to support a breakout move. Still looks good but we need to see the move on stronger volume. At this point we will want to see it over 26 as well.
Volume: 191.571K Avg Volume: 276.863K
BUY POINT: New: $26 (orig. $25.25) Volume=465K Target=$30 Stop=$23.48
POSITION: QCG KE - Nov. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cgnx.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
CTV (Commscope--$10.96; +0.26; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CTV jumped higher on huge volume Monday in a strong move off the test of its breakout from a 6-month cup with handle base. Excellent accumulation in the base at 8 to 2 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) set up the breakout. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out as well on the move. It came back from its high on the session, but it looks very solid.
Volume: 920.8K Avg Volume: 234.363K
BUY POINT: $11.08 Volume=265K Target=$13.88 Stop=$10.45
POSITION: CTV JB - Oct. $10c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctv.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$28.35; +1.07; no options): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Starting the bounce up off the breakout test, but did not get a lot of volume Monday as it did so. GLDN formed a long 12 month base and broke out in early May, posting a nice, quick $10 run. From there it backed off to test the 50 day MVA (22.45) and when it did, big money moved in, driving the stock higher on strong volume. That is exactly what you want to see as the institutions step in to buy at that level. Now all we want to see is more volume.
Volume: 135.625K Avg Volume: 111.454K
BUY POINT: New: 28.85 (orig. $28.05) Volume=200K Target=$33.75 Stop=$26.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gldn.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
IDT (IDT Corp.--$18; +0.05; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the handle of its 7.5 month base, moving laterally in a tight range that taps the 10 day MVA on the low (17.90) and then rebounds. Volume was up again Monday, another volume spike in the handle that is telling us to get ready for the move.
Volume: 300.4K Avg Volume: 166.849K
BUY POINT: $18.26 Volume=200K Target=$21.95 Stop=$17.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idt.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$15.03; +0.55; optionable): Computer networking hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice gap higher Monday but it could not run with the move. JNPR broke out of a 4 month flat base in April, ran to 15, and is now forming a short new base over the 50 day MVA (12.78) that is consolidating the break higher from the prior base. This little consolidation shows a lot of plusses: it held the 50 day MVA at the bottom, volume dried up to well below average at the bottom of the base, it surged as it started back up, it enjoys excellent money flow, and relative strength is breaking out. Strong stock that can fly when it gets going. It is almost there.
Volume: 18.867M Avg Volume: 14.351M
BUY POINT: $15.12 Volume=22M Target=$18.85 Stop=$14.06
POSITION: JUX JC - Oct. $15c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jnpr.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
ZRAN (Zoran--$24.51; +1.02; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zran.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Made the breakout from its 7.5 month base Monday on rising, above average volume. It gapped, ran, but then fell back most of the session. That kept us from jumping in, but a test of 24 and a move back up from there on continues solid volume is a buy. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation. Relative strength is rallying and on the verge of a breakout as well, a very good confirmation of the breakout to come.
Volume: 1.689M Avg Volume: 1.086M
BUY POINT: New: Test 24, then $24.11 Volume=1.6M Target=$28.95 Stop=$22.42
POSITION: ZUO IX - Sept. 22.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/zran.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/12/2003
WSH (Willis Group Holdings--$28.76; -0.11; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wsh.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to rally higher toward the 200 day MVA (29.62) and then rolled over to close fractionally lower. We wanted it to test a bit higher, but this may be all we get. If it continues down we will open a partial position and see if more volume comes in and then complete the position. Money flow is weak and leading lower.
Volume: 988.8K Avg Volume: 930K
BUY POINT: New: 28.62 (orig. $29.45) Volume=1.4M Target=$26 Stop=$30.12
POSITION: WSH TF - Aug. $30p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wsh.html
End part 1 of 3
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us stock market
stock option
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