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stock trading school, stock trading
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Tuesday: AMAT; BLL; EVOL; GGNS; GLDN; INB; INTV; PRXL; VSEA
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Play Date: 07/15/2003
$SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$401.87; -0.21; optionable): Chip index
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/$/$sox.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The semiconductor index continues to work in the handle of its 7.5 month base, butting its head up against a breakout over 407 to 409 on the highs. Many leading chips have the same pattern (e.g., NVLS, KLAC), and we are looking for the overall SOX to follow their lead and make the breakout. It has to hold the move, but if it clears the recent highs we will be ready to enter positions.
BUY POINT: $409.45 Target=$448 Stop=$404
POSITION: SOY HA - Aug. $405c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/$sox.html
Play Date: 07/15/2003
NUFO (New Focus--$4.27; -0.08; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nufo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. NUFO is pulling back on low volume to test the breakout from a 6 month cup with handle base. Accumulation in the base is a solid 10 to 7 (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 7 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow has been super on the move and relative strength broke out on the breakout move. A nice, easy and orderly pullback toward the 10 day MVA (4.16). Very nice and orderly pullback and we are looking for a break higher after a tap of the 10 day.
Volume: 232.477K Avg Volume: 386.136K
BUY POINT: $4.45 Volume=550K Target=$5.49 Stop=$4.14
POSITION: - Stock (options provide too little leverage)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nufo.html
Play Date: 07/15/2003
OPSW (Opsware--$5.5; -0.15; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/opsw.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. OPSW is testing the breakout from a long, 18 month base. It blasted higher on strong volume in early July and has spent the last week pulling back to the 10 day MVA (5.25) to test the move. Volume has tailed off as it makes that test, just as it should. Accumulation in the long base is 19 to 13. Money flow is moving higher ahead of the stock price even as it consolidates laterally. Moreover, relative strength has broken out on the move, a good confirmation of the breakout. We really like these tests as they 'prove up' the base. Now we look for a move higher on stronger volume that clears the recent clutter in prices.
Volume: 324.403K Avg Volume: 632.409K
BUY POINT: $5.95 Volume=850K Target=$7.25 Stop=$5.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/opsw.html
Play Date: 07/15/2003
PWAV (Powerwave Technologies--$7.55; -0.4; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwav.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PWAV exploded out of a 7 month reverse head and shoulders base in early July. Accumulation in the base was a solid 9 to 4 with excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout to boot. It has come back the past week to test the breakout, holding the 10 day MVA (7.48) Tuesday. Volume was strong on the pullback Tuesday, but it was because PWAV announced a convertible offer. Many strong stocks have done this during 2003 and take an initial hit on the announcement. This has provided very good entry points on these stocks in the past, and we are looking for a similar opportunity here. Still want to see it recover well, howeer, with a solid move up off the 10 day MVA on some good upside trade.
Volume: 5.53M Avg Volume: 1.371M
BUY POINT: $8.12 Volume=2.1M Target=$9.75 Stop=$7.45
POSITION: VFQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pwav.html
New Post-Split
Play Date: 06/24/2003
SLM (SLM Corp.--$41.74; -0.19; optionable): School loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. SLM is moving in a wide trading range from 39 to 43, but is now narrowing down, holding the 18 day MVA (41.15) last week, and now holding the 10 day MVA (41.45) on the Tuesday low. If it holds here and bounces on volume it is a buy. SLM has been a leader in the market, and this chop going into the split is common. If it continues to narrow its range as it has here it is ready for the next leg higher.
Volume: 1.074M Avg Volume: 2.8M
BUY POINT: $42.88 Volume=3.5M Target=$49.25 Stop=$41
POSITION: SLM JH - Oct. $40c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slm.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 06/07/2003
AMEV (Applied Molecular--$4.56; -0.04; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amev.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle of its current 7 week base, AMEV is testing lower intraday but recovering to close right at the 10 day MVA. These intraday tests lower on low volume act to shakeout the last sellers who get frustrated with the action as the stock dips lower after approaching the old high. Storng money flow and accumulation. Just waiting for the strong breakout on volume.
Volume: 44.391K Avg Volume: 99.5K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $5.06. Aggressive: $4.75 Volume=102K Target=$6 Stop=$4.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amev.html
Play Date: 07/10/2003
PMTI (Palomar Medical Tech--$5.59; +0.16; no options): Medical applicances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmti.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Beautiful action shaping up here with PMTI droppping down to the 18 day MVA (5.24) after a failed breakout attempt Friday. Tuesday it moved up off the 18 day. No volume yet, but very nice money flow and accumulation along with relative strength ready to breakout along with the stock.
Volume: 104.68K Avg Volume: 130.181K
BUY POINT: $6.2 Volume=198K Target=$7.75 Stop=$5.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pmti.html
Play Date: 06/12/2003
PRXL (Parexel Intl.--$15.8; +0.37; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prxl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PRXL is coming out of the test of the breakout of a 5 month reversed head and shoulders base. It tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (15.17) and then rebounded on some solid volume. Excellent test and move higher and still a buy on the current bounce.
Volume: 125.107K Avg Volume: 87.409K
BUY POINT: New: $16.02 (orig $14.85) Volume=167K Target=New positions: $19.25; orig. positions: $17.85 Stop=$14.75
POSITION: VBQ IV - Sept. $12.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/prxl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/12/2003
WSH (Willis Group Holdings--$29.06; +0.3; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wsh.html
STATUS: Put. Another doji below the 200 day MVA (29.60) on rising volume as it looks as if WSH is ready now to roll lower. Weak money flow and under distribution.
Volume: 1.242M Avg Volume: 924.818K
BUY POINT: New: 28.95 (orig. $29.45) Volume=1.4M Target=$26 Stop=$30.12
POSITION: WSH TF - Aug. $30p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wsh.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Nice doji at the 10 day MVA on continued below average volume.
AVP: Forecast 7-23-03 before the open with earnings. Testing the 10 day MVA on below average volume, looking for the next move.
BCR: Forecast to announce a split on July 16 after the close with earnings. Could not make the strong 50 day MVA and heading back down to that level.
BLUD: Forecast 7-17 before the market opens with earnings. Reversed back down to the 10 day MVA on the close.
CECO: Forecast 7-22 with earnings. Testing the strong move higher but still over the 10 day MVA.
COH: Forecast 7-29 before the open with earnings.
EBAY: Forecast 7-24 after the close.
ETN: Forecast 7-15 in conjunction with earnings. Dropped through the 50 day MVA on some huge volume.
FDO: No announcement with 6-25-03 earnings but still looks very solid. Researching the next date.
GDW: Forecast 7-21 in conjunction with earnings. Fell to the 10 day MVA on above average volume after starting a nice move higher.
HAR: Forecast 7-30 in conjunction with earnings. Took a breather after the strong move higher.
KRON: Forecast 7-24-03 in conjunction with earnings.
LM: Forecast July 17 with earnings. Gapped higher but gave back the move. Still a nice bounce higher.
LXK: Forecast 7-21 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
MME: Forecast in early 8-6 with earnings (company has not confirmed whether before or after). Turned back down to the 10 day MVA.
SYK: Forecast 7-16 in conjunction with earnings. Turned back down toward the 10 day MVA.
TBL: Forecast 8-20 in conjunction with earnings.
TSCO: Forecast to announce 7-14 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings. Still working up the 10 day MVA.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/10/2003
COH (Coach--$54.95; -0.27; optionable): High-end handbags and related items. Forecast to announce a split on 7-29-03 before the open in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-2-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $55.59. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-6-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still in the test, COH has made a few half-hearted breakout attempts the past two sessions on lower, below average volume. It has tested the 10 day MVA on the low (54.22) and rebounded. It looks to be forming a really nice lateral test of the earlier move last week when it blasted higher. This is exactly what the stock needed to consolidate the strong move higher.
Volume: 504.3K Avg Volume: 963.636K
BUY POINT: $55.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$65 Stop=$51.66
POSITION: COH BK - Nov. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 03/08/2003
EBAY (Ebay--$113.13; -0.82; optionable): Internet auctions, sales. Forecast to announce a split July 24 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: EBAY announced a 3:1 stock split 1-26-99 and then a 2:1 stock split in April 2000 at a stock price of $140.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. EBAY is moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (111.41) on lower, below average volume. After the strong move higher in early July EBAY is working off the steam, moving laterally below 115 on lower, below average volume. This is a needed breather and it may take a few more sessions to iron out the gains and make the break higher.
Volume: 4.781M Avg Volume: 6.462M
BUY POINT: New: 115.45 (orig. 100.25 ; 95.65; 87.25; $80.08) Volume=8M Target=$115 Stop=$105.55
POSITION: QXB JB - Oct. $110c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 06/21/2003
FDO (Family Dollar Stores--$38.56; -0.17; optionable): Discount variety chain. Forecast to announce a split on 6-25-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-24-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $37. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-16-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FDO continues to work laterally along the 18 day MVA, tapping it on the lows (38.35) as it works along on mostly below average volume. After the nice late May breakout from its cup w/handle, this action is good consolidation while the rest of the market gyrates back and for the between the buyers and sellers tug of war. Looking for a high volume break higher that is holding toward the close.
Volume: 690.6K Avg Volume: 869.409K
BUY POINT: $38.65 Volume=1.2M Target=$45 Stop=$37.25
POSITION: FDO JU - Oct. $37.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdo.html
Play Date: 06/28/2003
KRON (Kronos--$56.04; -0.86; optionable): Employee efficiency systems. Forecast to announce a split on 7-24-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed a time for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-25-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $41. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice test of the breakout underway as KRON comes back to test the 10 day MVA (55.49) on continued below average volume. The stock exploded higher right after we put it on the report, and now it is taking its first breather and setting up the next natural buy point. It is making the test that we were looking for, and now we look for a strong break higher on sharply higher trade.
Volume: 153.589K Avg Volume: 196.954K
BUY POINT: New: 57.78 (orig. $51.50) Volume=300K Target=New positions: $66.45; orig. positions: $60.25 Stop=$54.75
POSITION: KUE JK - Oct. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
LXK (Lexmark Intl.--$77.09; +0.12; optionable): Printers. Forecast to announce a split on 7-21-03 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 2 for 1 split on 4-29-99 at a stock price of $110. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-30-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lxk.html
STATUS: Flat base. LXK looked to be on the way Tuesday, moving on good volume early. Volume dried up, however, as the market topped and started back. LXK managed to hold onto some of the gain, but it was just a fraction. Still a solid pattern as it moves laterally in the current 10 week base moving in a range from 70 to 77. Accumulation in the current lateral move is positive at 3 to 2 and money flow is moving up sharply. Wanting to see some strong volume on the next move.
Volume: 1.205M Avg Volume: 1.609M
BUY POINT: $77.55 Volume=2M Target=$90 Stop=$74
POSITION: LXK JO - Oct. $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lxk.html
Play Date: 06/03/2003
TBL (Timberland--$58.19; +0.05; optionable): Apparel, footwear. Forecast to announce a split on 8-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed the time of the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-11-00 at a stock price of approximately $71. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-22-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tbl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TBL shot higher last week off the 10 day MVA (56.79) and is now moving laterally after that solid move. It needs another session or two of rest, but if the market is ready to go, TBL looks ready to go as well.
Volume: 159.5K Avg Volume: 301.5K
BUY POINT: New: $59.25 (orig. $53.05) Volume=514K Target=New positions: $68; orig.: $60.88 Stop=$55
POSITION: TBL KL - Nov. $60c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tbl.html
Play Date: 07/05/2003
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$51.84; -0.88; optionable): No split with earnings but we are looking at 7-17-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed the date of the board meeting, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-18-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. This stock price was $57. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-17-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. TSCO reported in line with raised expectations that it guided higher in June. It did not announce the split, but held up well Tuesday on the in line earnings. This follows a very nice move off the 10 day MVA (50.19) starting last Friday, with volume picking up this week. Tuesday TSCO showed a tight doji as it backed off some but held 52. It is close to breaking through the recent highs at 53.19 and that would put it at a new high. That is the move we are looking at to add some more positions to this winner.
Volume: 376.622K Avg Volume: 326.045K
BUY POINT: New: $53.25 (orig. $51.25) Volume=500K Target=$60 Stop=$48.12
POSITION: QTF JI - Oct. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/04/2003
CHTT (Chattem--$18.25; 0; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chtt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CHTT continues to form a very nice, low volume handle to its 8.5 month base, testing lower intraday, but managing to hold the 18 day MVA on the close. As is forms this 4 week handle money flow continues to move higher. Looking for a strong breakout from CHTT.
Volume: 89.561K Avg Volume: 142.772K
BUY POINT: $19.95 Volume=220K Target=$23.94 Stop=$18.55
POSITION: HQT IW - Sept. $17.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chtt.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
KSWS (K-Swiss--$39.25; +1.13; optionable): Sports shoes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Moving well past the buy point and to a new high, but volume did not follow. Relative strength broke out, and we may regret we did not jump in Tuesday. Still a buy on a further move up from here.
Volume: 180.272K Avg Volume: 209.818K
BUY POINT: New: $39.65 (orig. $38.55) Volume=307K Target=$45.65 Stop=$35.85
POSITION: SWU JG - Oct. $35c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
End part 2 of 3
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stock trading school
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