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stock trading services, stock trading information
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: BBBY; WSH
Best Plays:
1) MDP: Very nice pattern.
2) IMAN: Good pattern and nice earnings after the close.
3) FFIV: Nice doji at the 10 day MVA.
4) IDT: Starting the breakout move.
5) NENG: Furious rebound off the 50 day MVA.
6) PWAV: Great breakout test.
7) SGMS: Wonderful test of the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/16/2003
IMAN (Imanage--$5.23; +0.33; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iman.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IMAN is working in its own cup with handle, a 15 month base with solid 15 to 10 accumulation (15 up weeks on rising volume 10 down price weeks on rising volume). It has spent the past three weeks forming a handle, the lateral and slightly lower move that shakes out the last sellers as they get frustrated the stock has stopped its forward progress. On the pullback it tapped the 18 day MVA (4.83) and held that level on the low. It announced earnings after the close and was moving up on solid volume ahead of that announcement. The move started to break the stock out of the pattern, relative strength breaking out as well, following some strong money flow. After hours IMAN was trading higher, and we are looking to get in on a further breakout.
Volume: 219.42K Avg Volume: 163K
BUY POINT: $5.38 Volume=244K Target=$6.88 Stop=$5
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iman.html
Play Date: 07/16/2003
INSP (Infospace--$15.89; -0.18; optionable): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/insp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Big picture, INSP recently broke out of a 18.5 month base in July as the market surged higher. The past week it has come back to test the move, but is holding up very well over the 10 day MVA (15.45) as it shows a series of lower volume dojis as it eases back to test the move as the overall market pulls back as well. Accumulation in the long base is a solid 17 to 11, and money flow is moving up ahead of price. The pullback is very orderly, but we have to see how it reacts to the earnings reports from Wednesday. Thus far the stock has held up well in the selling, but we want to see it break higher on strong volume to move into positions.
Volume: 106.37K Avg Volume: 475.863K
BUY POINT: $16.45 Volume=714K Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.25
POSITION: IOU JC - Oct. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/insp.html
Play Date: 07/16/2003
MDP (Meredith Corp.--$46.3; +0.14; optionable): Newspaper publishing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. May not be all that sexy, but a very nice 8.5 month base showing excellent 8 to 3 accumulation. MDP has spent the past two weeks moving laterally over 46 in a very tight, flat range. The 10 day MVA (45.73) is rising up to meet the stock, and after a move higher such as MDP gave from June to early July to complete the base, this nice flat lateral move uses the 10 day MVA to launch a new run. Excellent money flow is leading the way and now we wait for a breakout.
Volume: 182K Avg Volume: 226.961K
BUY POINT: $47.12 Volume=340K Target=$56.55 Stop=$45
POSITION: MDP II - Sept. $45c (71 delta) &/or stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mdp.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/28/2003
ADAT (Authentidate--$3.7; -0.02; no options): Authentication software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adat.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle or reverse head and shoulders. ADAT has been moving on its own and without regard to the overall market as it continues the nice, tight handle over the 18 day MVA (3.63) on very low, below average volume. Super money flow is leading higher even as the stock moves laterally. Solid accumulation at 7 to 5 (7 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume). Just waiting for the move.
Volume: 36.63K Avg Volume: 119.317K
BUY POINT: $3.95 Volume=201K Target=$5 Stop=$3.67
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adat.html
Play Date: 06/28/2003
CAO (CSK Auto--$14.95; -0.1; optionable): Auto parts stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cao.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CAO started the breakout from its 14 month base on Monday, but as the market has come back so has CAO, tapping the 10 day MVA on the Wednesday low (14.75) and bouncing back on the close. Volume has backed off to below average levels as it should on a test. Now is the critical period where it needs to hold the breakout and start back up on rising volume. Strong accumulation, strong money flow, and a relative strength breakout. Good credentials, now we see if the breakout was for real.
Volume: 160.2K Avg Volume: 290.359K
BUY POINT: New: 15.35 (orig. $14.82) Volume=400K Target=$17.85 Stop=$13.74
POSITION: CAO KV - Nov. $12.50c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cao.html
Play Date: 06/11/2003
CGFW (Cyberguard--$8.7; -0.19; no options): PC networking hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgfw.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CGFW is testing the big breakout from early July when it rallied up to 10. It has come back the past three sessions on lower, below average volume and Wednesday showed a big and tight doji that tapped the 18 day MVA on the low (8.27) and then rallied back to close right at the 10 day MVA. This is a textbook breakout test. Now we look for a higher volume bounce to enter new positions.
Volume: 107.15K Avg Volume: 119.409K
BUY POINT: New: $9.05 (orig. $7.75) Volume=120K Target=New positions: 10.85 (orig. positions $9.35) Stop=$8.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cgfw.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
CTV (Commscope--$10.9; +0.11; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CTV is still moving laterally at 11, holding up very well as the market pulls back. The price/volume action is excellent with huge volume spikes as CTV holds steady, lower volume as it pulls back. Solid money flow and excellent accumulation in the base at 8 to 2 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Looking for another break higher on continued solid volume.
Volume: 657.4K Avg Volume: 254.185K
BUY POINT: New: $11.22 (orig. $11.08) Volume=265K Target=$13.88 Stop=$10.45
POSITION: CTV JB - Oct. $10c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ctv.html
Play Date: 07/14/2003
FFIV (F5 Networks--$17.65; +0.1; optionable): Net services and software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Ascending Triangle. Still in the 5 week triangle showing outstanding 5 to 0 accumulation. It tried the breakout both Monday and Tuesday, but could not hold the move. Wednesday FFIV showed a very tight doji that tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (17.35) and rebounded on the close for a slight gain. Money flow remains outstanding. Just going to be patient and see if it can make and hold the breakout.
Volume: 303.699K Avg Volume: 556.457K
BUY POINT: $18.96 Volume=800K Target=$23 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: FLK JW - Oct. $17.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
IDT (IDT Corp.--$18.26; +0.25; no options): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Hit the buy point on a last second spurt to the close so we were not able to move in. Volume was solid as IDT started the move out of the very tight handle to the 7.5 month base. Those volume spikes have not been whistling Dixie. Looking for a continued move to enter.
Volume: 379.5K Avg Volume: 169.461K
BUY POINT: $18.26 Volume=200K Target=$21.95 Stop=$17.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idt.html
Play Date: 05/05/2003
NENG (Network Engines--$4.16; +0.43; no options): Internet service providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neng.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. What a wild session. NENG tested all the way to the simple 50 day MVA on the low (3.15) and then rebounded furiously on a super volume surge. The move pushed it back above the short term MVA. This looks like a big shakeout of the sellers, clearing the way for the next leg higher. Love to see the buyers surge back in when a 50 day MVA test is made.
Volume: 1.311M Avg Volume: 355.895K
BUY POINT: New: $4.58 (orig. $2.08) Volume=232K Target=New: $5.75 (orig. $3.44) Stop=$4.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/neng.html
Play Date: 07/15/2003
PWAV (Powerwave Technologies--$7.5; -0.05; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwav.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still testing the strong breakout from its 7 month reverse head and shoulders base in early July. Accumulation in the base was a solid 9 to 4 (9 up weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) with excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout as well. It has come back the past week to test the breakout, again holding at the 10 day MVA on the Wednesday close. We are looking at this as a good entry point if it can make a high volume bounce from here.
Volume: 1.961M Avg Volume: 1.449M
BUY POINT: $8.12 Volume=2.1M Target=$9.75 Stop=$7.45
POSITION: VFQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pwav.html
Play Date: 05/29/2003
SGMS (Scientific Games--$9.59; 0; optionable): PC hardware for lotteries and paramutual betting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the strong breakout SGMS has spent the past week coming back on very low volume to test the 10 day MVA, tapping that level on the lows (9.45) and rebounding. That is a very orderly pullback, and just the kind it showed before blasting higher 7 sessions back. Ready to jump back on it here as SGMS continues to show strong accumulation and money flow.
Volume: 195.266K Avg Volume: 517.826K
BUY POINT: New: $9.85 (orig. $8.55) Volume=571K Target=New positions: $11.84 (orig. positions $10.15) Stop=$9
POSITION: TUJ JU - Oct. $7.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sgms.html
Play Date: 07/14/2003
SCH (Charles Schwab--$11.6; -0.18; optionable): Brokerage services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sch.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still trying for the breakout from its 6 month base sporting solid 8 to 5 accumulation.and surging money flow. It rallied but faded again Wednesday as volume fell back below average. Still ready to move and we just need to see SCH make the high volume move and see it stick toward the close.
Volume: 4.352M Avg Volume: 5.145M
BUY POINT: $11.92 Volume=7.5M Target=$14.45 Stop=$11.05
POSITION: SCN IB - Sept. $10c (87 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sch.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/26/2003
INTU (Intuit--$42.58; -0.63; optionable): Tax software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intu.html
STATUS: Put. Starting the fall from the 50 day MVA (44.25), breaking below the recent lows on the close finally. That opens the door to a further drop as the downtrend picks up steam. Still plenty of room to the downside.
Volume: 2.389M Avg Volume: 4.153M
BUY POINT: New: $42.42 (orig. $43.95) Volume=6M Target=$39.35 Stop=$44.55
POSITION: IQU TI - Aug. $45p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/intu.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
WSH (Willis Group Holdings--$28.63; -0.43; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wsh.html
STATUS: Put. Turned back down Wednesday on continued above average volume, falling after that doji below the 200 day MVA indicated the test had run out of steam. Still a buy at this point as there is plenty of room to the downside.
Volume: 1.026M Avg Volume: 943.414K
BUY POINT: New: 28.62 (orig. $29.45) Volume=1.4M Target=$26 Stop=$30.12
POSITION: WSH TF - Aug. $30p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wsh.html
End part 2 of 3
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