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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Play Date: 07/16/2003
IMAN (Imanage--$5.23; +0.33; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iman.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IMAN is working in its own cup with handle, a 15 month base with solid 15 to 10 accumulation. It has spent the past three weeks forming a handle, the lateral and slightly lower move that shakes out the last sellers as they get frustrated the stock has stopped its forward progress. On the pullback it tapped the 18 day MVA (4.83) and held that level on the low. It announced earnings after the close and was moving up on solid volume ahead of that announcement. The move started to break the stock out of the pattern, relative strength breaking out as well, following some strong money flow. After hours IMAN was trading higher, and we are looking to get in on a further breakout.
Volume: 219.42K Avg Volume: 163K
BUY POINT: $5.38 Volume=244K Target=$6.88 Stop=$5
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/iman.html
Play Date: 07/16/2003
XMSR (XM Satellite Radio--$13.1; -0.04; optionable): Satellite radio
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xmsr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moving in a 16 month base showing solid 17 to 11 accumulation. XMSR tested the 50 day MVA (11.06) in late June and rallied to 14. It is now moving back to test 13 on lower, below average volume. Strong money flow and relative strength in the base. XMSR just inked a deal with Infiniti to put its radio as standard equipment in new vehicles, and our surveys of auto dealers indicate that those getting the option are renewing at a high percentage after the 90-day trial period ends. Looking for a strong volume breakout.
Volume: 2.766M Avg Volume: 7.247M
BUY POINT: $14.25 Volume=11M Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.12
POSITION: QSY JC - Oct. $15c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xmsr.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 06/07/2003
AMEV (Applied Molecular--$4.59; +0.03; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amev.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AMEV continues in the handle of its7 week base, still holding over the 18 day MVA (4.48) on the low. Very, very low volume Wednesday as MAEV continues to shakeout the last sellers. Looking for a strong breakout from here. Stronng money flow and accumulation. Just waiting for the strong breakout on volume.
Volume: 8K Avg Volume: 99.774K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $5.06. Aggressive: $4.75 Volume=102K Target=$6 Stop=$4.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amev.html
Play Date: 07/15/2003
OPSW (Opsware--$5.45; -0.05; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/opsw.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. OPSW is still testing the breakout from a long, 18 month base. It blasted higher on strong volume in early July and has spent the last week pulling back to the 10 day MVA (5.25) to test the move. Volume remains below averate as it makes the pullback. Accumulation in the long base is 19 to 13. Money flow is moving higher ahead of the stock price even as it consolidates laterally.
Volume: 404.552K Avg Volume: 634.48K
BUY POINT: $5.95 Volume=850K Target=$7.25 Stop=$5.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/opsw.html
Play Date: 07/10/2003
PMTI (Palomar Medical Tech--$5.85; +0.26; no options): Medical applicances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmti.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After testing the 18 day MVA (5.32) on the Tuesday low PMTI rallied Wednesday but on very low volume. Still looks very good in the pattern with strong accumulation and money flow. Relative strength is ready for a breakout as well. Very nice little pattern.
Volume: 51.175K Avg Volume: 146.047K
BUY POINT: $6.2 Volume=198K Target=$7.75 Stop=$5.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pmti.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 06/03/2003
TBL (Timberland--$58.19; +0.05; optionable): Apparel, footwear. Forecast to announce a split on 8-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed the time of the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-11-00 at a stock price of approximately $71. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-22-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tbl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TBL shot higher last week off the 10 day MVA (56.79) and is now moving laterally after that solid move. It needs another session or two of rest, but if the market is ready to go, TBL looks ready to go as well.
Volume: 159.5K Avg Volume: 301.5K
BUY POINT: New: $59.25 (orig. $53.05) Volume=514K Target=New positions: $68; orig.: $60.88 Stop=$55
POSITION: TBL KL - Nov. $60c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tbl.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
$SOX 07/15 Cup hdl 0 0 409.45 448 0 0 404
Buy Not Hit.
AEOS 07/08 Cup hdl 20.65 +0.46 20.12 24.25 1.5M 1.9M 18.71
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher and was all over the place. Decided to
let it test 20 again and then turn back up for the
entry point.
AFL 06/12 H&S 32.01 -0.08 30.78 28 2.9M 2.8M 31.55
Exited.
AGIL 06/26 Test 50 10.32 -0.04 10.15 12.25 707K 506K 9.55
Current.
AMAT 07/12 Cup hdl 19.22 +0.55 18.05 22.55 45M 40M 16.79
Current.
AMEV 06/07 Test BO 4.59 +0.03 4.75 6 8K 102K 4.44
Current.
ANSI 06/10 PreSplt 37.87 -0.58 33.16 37.52 247K 300K 36.85
Exited. Took the rest off of the table.
APOL 05/27 Test 50 64.17 -1.19 55.07 62 1.5M 2.7M 62.45
Current.
AVP 03/29 BO 62.99 -0.63 57.58 65.88 1M 1.7M 62.25
Current.
BCGI 07/10 Test BO 21.16 +0.57 20.7 25.35 4.5M 1.4M 19.25
Current.
BCR 07/03 Test 50 68.38 -1.36 72.94 84 367K 600K 70.85
Buy Not Hit.
BEBE 07/01 Test BO 22.84 +0.25 20.9 24.95 142K 321K 20.95
Current.
BHE 07/09 Cup hdl 34.45 -0.15 35.95 42.55 209K 500K 33.94
Current.
BLL 06/21 Put 45.3 +2.72 46 42 1.4M 650K 45.12
Current.
BLUD 07/04 A Wedge 21 -1.75 23.25 28 1.9M 262K 21.62
Buy Not Issued.
CECO 05/29 Test 50 74.55 -1.89 62.55 73.45 657K 1M 72.22
Current.
CGFW 06/11 Cup hdl 8.7 -0.19 7.75 9.35 107K 120K 8.44
Current.
CHINA 06/21 Test BO 13.09 -1.03 7.95 9.55 16M 2.8M 11.78
Current.
CHMD 06/10 FlyPlat 11.61 -0.29 10.54 12.55 58K 155K 10.35
Current.
CHPC 06/28 Cup hdl 8.83 -0.27 8.45 10.75 2.1M 2.1M 8
Current.
CHTT 07/04 Cup hdl 17.98 -0.27 19.95 23.94 52K 220K 18.55
Buy Not Hit.
CMTL 07/01 PreSplt 19.5 -1.18 28.45 32.72 1.7M 350K 33.12
Target Hit.
CNTE 05/29 Cup hdl 26.61 -1.99 23.38 26.98 285K 180K 27.75
Exited. Trailing stop to preserve the gain.
COH 07/10 BO 54.09 -0.86 55.55 65 817K 1.4M 51.66
Buy Not Issued.
CUB 07/04 Cup hdl 23.9 +0.1 23.48 28.25 77K 206K 21.95
Buy Not Issued.
DADE 07/08 Flat 24 0 24.92 29.94 66K 435K 23.55
Buy Not Issued.
DVA 05/17 Cup hdl 28.35 +1.03 25.11 30 872K 573K 26.75
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 112.75 -0.38 80.08 92 4.6M 8M 105.55
Current.
ERES 04/30 PreSplt 24.43 -1.32 15.08 17.58 1.2M 496K 23.65
Current.
ERES 01/30 Cup hdl 24.43 -1.32 15.08 17.58 1.2M 436K 23.65
Current.
ETN 05/31 Cup hdl 79.9 +0.1 84.25 100 1.1M 650K 80.85
Buy Not Issued.
EVOL 06/09 Test 50 6.14 -0.11 4.45 5.48 541K 307K 4.48
Current.
FDO 06/21 Test 18 38.14 -0.42 38.65 45 830K 1.2M 37.25
Buy Not Issued.
FDRY 06/18 Test 18 16.94 +0.08 16.26 19.55 2.6M 5M 16.25
Current.
FFIV 07/14 A Wedge 17.65 +0.1 18.96 23 304K 800K 17.55
Buy Not Hit.
GDW 05/01 Test BO 81.52 -1.06 83.6 95.88 1.1M 900K 81.38
Current.
GGNS 07/14 BO 3.48 -0.16 3.7 4.72 767K 250K 3.22
Current.
GLDN 07/12 Test BO 28.55 -1.54 28.05 33.75 437K 200K 26.09
Buy Not Issued.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 49.57 +0.57 41.75 48 348K 766K 45.25
Current.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 49.57 +0.57 26.5 30.75 348K 521K 45.25
Current.
HAR 05/13 Test BO 81.2 -2.54 70.25 80.45 410K 619K 78.95
Current.
HB 06/16 Put 50.1 -0.32 49.95 46.95 115K 175K 50.78
Current.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 7.24 +0.1 7.22 8.95 121K 541K 6.68
Current.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 7.24 +0.1 6.7 8.38 121K 541K 6.68
Current.
IGLD 07/07 Cup 5.92 -0.43 5.88 7.15 235K 500K 5.95
Current.
IGT 06/18 PreSplt 26.51 -0.27 24.05 25.65 2.4M 1M 25.35
IMAN 07/16 Cup hdl 5.23 +0.33 5.38 6.88 219K 244K 5
New.
INB 06/24 Cup hdl 9.09 +0.04 6.15 7.88 99K 80K 7.38
Current.
INTU 06/26 Put 42.58 -0.63 43.95 39.35 2.4M 6M 44.55
Buy Not Issued.
INTV 06/14 Test BO 7.89 -0.33 3.84 5 590K 195K 5.45
Target Hit.
ISIL 06/17 A Wedge 28.46 +0.87 25.6 30.55 15M 4.5M 26.45
Current.
KROL 07/05 Cup hdl 28.2 +0.22 27.98 33.55 208K 700K 27.25
Current.
KROL 06/14 Test BO 28.2 +0.22 26.05 30.95 208K 716K 26.15
Current.
KRON 06/28 A Wedge 54.92 -1.12 51.5 60.25 163K 300K 54.75
Current.
KSWS 07/12 Test BO 38.41 -0.84 38.55 44.65 84K 307K 35.85
Buy Not Issued.
KSWS 04/21 FlyPlat 38.41 -0.84 30.66 35.75 84K 304K 36
LM 07/12 Test 18 70.32 -0.08 69.52 80 267K 700K 66.78
Buy Not Issued.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 70.32 -0.08 58.5 67.78 267K 610K 66
Current.
LXK 07/12 Flat 75.9 -1.19 77.55 90 1.4M 2M 74.45
Current.
MME 04/30 BO 54 -3.94 45.65 54.45 1.3M 634K 56
Current.
MRGE 04/24 Rv H&S 15.02 -0.39 8.06 10.45 275K 65K 13.95
Current.
NCEN 07/08 PreSplt 27.45 -1.23 29.45 33.52 1.8M 1M 28.45
Exited.
NUAN 07/12 BO 5.21 -0.26 6.15 8 190K 414K 5.72
Buy Not Hit.
NUFO 07/15 Test BO 4.19 -0.08 4.45 5.49 235K 550K 4.14
Buy Not Hit.
OEX 07/04 Test 18 16.95 -0.51 498.25 510 377K 1.8M 494
Buy Not Issued.
OIIM 06/17 BO 17.94 +0.34 16.38 19.94 363K 400K 16.96
Current.
OPSW 07/15 Test BO 5.45 -0.05 5.95 7.25 405K 850K 5.53
Buy Not Hit.
PCVA 06/25 BO 8.64 -0.36 7.88 9.44 89K 195K 7.45
Buy Not Issued.
PDLI 06/19 Put 14.29 -0.17 14.75 12.04 1.4M 2.5M 14.75
Current.
PIXR 07/05 Cup hdl 66.61 -1.13 62.8 71.75 590K 1.2M 65.94
Current.
PLCM 06/26 BO 14.3 -0.71 15 18.85 2.3M 2M 14.45
Exited.
PMTI 07/10 Cup hdl 5.85 +0.26 6.2 7.75 51K 198K 5.48
Current.
PPE 07/12 Test BO 8.71 -0.09 9.28 12 894K 1.6M 8.82
Buy Not Hit.
PRXL 06/12 DB hdl 15.87 +0.07 14.85 17.85 120K 167K 14.75
Current.
PWAV 07/15 Test BO 7.5 -0.05 8.12 9.75 2M 2.1M 7.45
Buy Not Hit.
QDEL 07/02 A Wedge 6.68 -0.07 6.8 8.12 84K 125K 6.32
Current.
QLGC 07/01 Test BO 51.35 -1.21 52.12 60 8.7M 8M 49.88
Buy Not Issued.
RCNC 07/09 Test BO 3.08 -0.12 2.58 3.05 609K 718K 2.42
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.92 +0.44 26.3 30.94 3.4M 6M 25.85
Current.
SJM 07/07 Cup hdl 40.37 -0.02 42.12 50.55 129K 316K 40.05
Buy Not Hit.
SLM 06/24 Test 18 40.95 -0.79 42.88 49.25 1.4M 3.5M 41
Buy Not Hit.
SOHU 06/21 Test 50 40.17 -1.49 28.5 35 3.9M 2.5M 32.48
Current.
SSTI 07/08 Cup hdl 5.3 -0.1 5.22 6.72 2.1M 1.4M 4.98
Current.
STG 07/09 Cup hdl 3 -0.06 2.94 3.65 356K 148K 2.73
Current.
SWKS 07/10 Test BO 8.63 -0.23 8.9 10.96 3.3M 5.5M 8.06
Current.
TBL 06/03 Test BO 58.21 +0.02 53.05 60.88 103K 514K 55
Current.
TPC 06/17 Test BO 5.8 -0.03 5.65 7.25 95K 466K 5.18
Buy Not Issued.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 50.16 -1.68 51.25 60 368K 500K 48.12
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 50.16 -1.68 46.85 55.25 368K 603K 48
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 50.16 -1.68 43.75 52 368K 603K 48
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 50.16 -1.68 38.6 44.38 368K 577K 48
Current.
TSM 06/18 Test 18 10.42 +0.08 10.95 13 7.5M 9M 10.06
Buy Not Issued.
UCBH 03/24 Cup 30.23 -0.37 22.03 24.75 167K 200K 29.45
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 29.01 +0.06 28.8 34.12 724K 2.1M 26.78
Current.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 29.01 +0.06 23.45 28 724K 2M 27
Current.
UOPX 10/10 Rv H&S 55.22 -0.94 48.6 58 163K 350K 52.55
Current.
VSEA 07/12 Test BO 35.52 +0.02 34.5 40.95 1.2M 1.4M 32.08
Current.
VTSS 07/08 BO 6.5 -0.42 6.65 7.88 7.6M 8M 5.94
Current.
WEDC 06/30 Cup hdl 11.3 -1.27 10.98 13.22 404K 200K 11.25
Current.
WSH 07/12 Put 28.63 -0.43 28.65 26 1M 1.4M 29.85
Current. Starting lower on above average volume.
WWCA 05/22 BO 13.72 +0.18 11.42 13.85 1.1M 824K 12.42
Current.
XING 07/02 Test BO 11.5 -1.41 11.2 13.55 1.6M 499K 11.94
Current.
XMSR 07/16 Cup hdl 13.1 -0.04 14.25 17.25 2.8M 11M 13.12
New.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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