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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Wednesday: WSH; RINO; PDLI
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Downside:
Play Date: 07/17/2003
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$39.75; -2.1; optionable): Global positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
STATUS: Put. GRMN made us a ton on the way up from November 2002, but then it capped out in June and broke down when word came that some auto makers were not going to use its product in their vehicles. It broke below the 50 day MVA (42.64) in June, rallied back up the past three weeks to try to break back over, but after a week of struggling it has failed, dropping Thursday on much stronger, slightly above average volume. The stock continues under distribution and money flow is now tanking lower once again. There is plenty of downside room with real support at 35. Sad to see a strong performer fall by the wayside, but that is the market.
Volume: 905.531K Avg Volume: 770.772K
BUY POINT: $39.54 Volume=800K Target=$36.48 Stop=$40.72
POSITION: GQR TH - Aug. $40p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 07/17/2003
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$37.38; -0.44; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Put. BDX double topped in June and July, tried to hold the 50 day MVA (38.11) but then broke down through that level Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday the move picked up some steam as volume, though still below average, was rising. Looking for a quick move toward the 200 day MVA, but can make a nice gain without it falling that far.
Volume: 763.5K Avg Volume: 1.097M
BUY POINT: $37.25 Volume=900K Target=$34.25 Stop=$38.35
POSITION: BDX UH - Sept. $40p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Upside:
Play Date: 07/17/2003
AET (Aetna--$63.31; +1.91; optionable): Health care plans, insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aet.html
STATUS: Flat base. AET is currently working through a 6 week flat base that follows on the heels of the breakout from a 10 month cup with handle base. The current flat base is working between 60 and 65, showing excellent accumulation at 3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume. Money flow is excellent, moving up ahead of price even as the stock works laterally in this base. Relative strength is ready to breakout as well, a good confirmation of the stock move. Thursday volume was up sharply as AET gapped down and then recovered for a nice gain. Looking for a nice breakout from here.
Volume: 2.394M Avg Volume: 1.88M
BUY POINT: $64.25 Volume=2.8M Target=$77.12 Stop=$59.88
POSITION: AET JM - Oct. $65c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aet.html
Play Date: 07/17/2003
TSCM (The Street.Com--$5.4; -0.15; no options): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tscm.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. TSCM formed a nice 5 month base from December to April, breaking out and rallying to 5.50ish. That cup with handle base showed solid 8 to 4 accumulation. It is currently working through a 7 week base showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation. The stock has been under excellent accumulation all along. Money flow is excellent, moving up even now as the stock moves laterally over the 10 day MVA (5.17). Relative strength is ready for a breakout as well, and all we need to see is volume surge as it moves through the buy point. Announces earnings at 11ET, and we will see if that can deliver the breakout.
Volume: 73.311K Avg Volume: 186.181K
BUY POINT: $5.82 Volume=210K Target=$7.55 Stop=$5.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tscm.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 06/10/2003
CHMD (Chronimed--$11.51; -0.1; no options): Medical instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CHMD is holding up very well in the selling, edging back to test the breakout from the flat base it formed in June. It broke out in early July on outstanding volume, rallied over 12, and is now testing back. Low, below average volume on the test shows very few sellers. Excellent money flow and relative strength. It showed a tight doji Thursday over the 10 day MVA (11.15). that often signals a stock is ready to move back up. Showing its stuff as many stocks sell off. It may snug up to the 10 day a bit more before the next move.
Volume: 80.179K Avg Volume: 127.09K
BUY POINT: New: Test 11, then 11.45 on the way back up (orig. $10.54) Volume=155K Target=New positions: $13.20 (orig. positions: $12.55) Stop=$10.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chmd.html
Play Date: 07/08/2003
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$7.1; -0.14; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Amazingly strong, hence showing excellent relative strength as it works laterally along the 18 day MVA (6.84) as volume backs off well below average. Accumulation remains strong as does money flow. Looking for the next break higher here on strong volume to add to this winner.
Volume: 223.052K Avg Volume: 384.954K
BUY POINT: $7.22 Volume=541K Target=$8.95 Stop=$6.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hpol.html
Play Date: 04/24/2003
MRGE (Merge Technologies--$15.03; 0; no options): PC data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrge.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MRGE has been a leader and a great winner for us, and it is now setting up to make the next move. It tested the 50 day MVA (12) in June and blasted higher. It has made one test of the short term MVA since, and is now making the next. That gives it 2 to 3 more moves up the 10 and 18 day MVA before it tests back deeper. These make great entry points for leading stocks and we are looking to pick it up on a stronger move higher. The past two sessions MRGE has showed tight dojis over the 10 day MVA (14.60). The doji indicates it is ready to move back up.
Volume: 80.75K Avg Volume: 159.636K
BUY POINT: New: $15.55 (orig. $8.06) Volume=65K Target=New positions: $18.65 Stop=$13.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrge.html
Play Date: 07/15/2003
OPSW (Opsware--$5.04; -0.41; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/opsw.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working on the breakout test, falling through the 10 day MVA and coming to rest on the close at the 18 day MVA. Volume has been nice and low, below average on the move. This follows the breakout from a long, 18 month base. It blasted higher on strong volume in early July and has spent the last week pulling back to test the move. Accumulation in the long base is 19 to 13. Money flow is moving higher ahead of the stock price even as it consolidates laterally.
Volume: 394.006K Avg Volume: 627.318K
BUY POINT: $5.95 Volume=850K Target=$7.25 Stop=$5.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/opsw.html
Play Date: 05/22/2003
WWCA (Western Wireless--$13.5; -0.22; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. WWCA jumped higher over a week back, breaking out of a month long flat base. Volume was excellent on the breakout, and it has moved laterally in the test on mostly lower, below average volume. Thursday volume spiked higher as the stock held its ground. Strong money flow, accumulation, and relative strength. Looking for a break higher for new positions.
Volume: 2.346M Avg Volume: 1.212M
BUY POINT: New: $14.12 (orig. $11.42) Volume=824K Target=New positions: $17 (orig. positions $13.85) Stop=$12.42
POSITION: WRQ HU - Aug. $7.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wwca.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Broke below the 18 day MVA but volume was still below average so we opted to see if it can recover or at least test 64 Friday.
AVP: Forecast 7-23-03 before the open with earnings.
BCR: No split announced with earnings, but after a big gap down it rallied furiously to post a gain. Never gave us the next entry point and we will let it set up again.
BLUD: Never did give us the entry we were looking for, demonstrating the importance of getting that right buy point and volume. It did not announce the split and gapped lower on Wednesday.
CECO: Forecast 7-22 with earnings.
COH: Forecast 7-29 before the open with earnings.
EBAY: Forecast 7-24 after the close.
ETN: No split announced with earnings but showing solid volume and nice action on the 50 day MVA. A solid stock and it many give a breakout over 84 for an entry point.
FDO: No announcement with 6-25-03 earnings but still looks very solid. Nice doji at the 18 day MVA.
GDW: Forecast 7-21 in conjunction with earnings. Holding at the 18 day MVA.
HAR: Forecast 7-30 in conjunction with earnings. Took some gain, exiting as it broke below the 18 day MVA on some above average volume.
KRON: Forecast 7-24-03 in conjunction with earnings.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings. Still working up the 18 day MVA. Beat by a whopping 7 cents, held up well.
LXK: Forecast 7-21 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
MME: Forecast in early 8-6 with earnings (company has not confirmed whether before or after). Gapped down Wednesday and we took the gain off the table.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16, but a nice spike higher.
TBL: Forecast 8-20 in conjunction with earnings.
TSCO: Forecast to announce 7-14 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings. Testing the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/29/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$63.07; +0.08; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 7-23-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. AVP has been a market leader, posting a nice gain after breaking higher from its last base, a flat base in April and May. It has rallied up the short term MVA, and has spent the past 4 weeks moving laterally over 62 and up to 64 (roughly). Volume has been mostly below average volume on that lateral consolidation. After breaking over 64 a week back it has come back to test the 18 day MVA, closing just over that level Thursday. It showed a nice, tight doji at that level, and after the lateral move it could be ready to make the next breakout move. Want to see volume really spike on that move, however, to show us it is genuine.
Volume: 788.5K Avg Volume: 1.28M
BUY POINT: New: 64.55 (orig. $57.58) Volume=1.7M Target=New positions: 74.25 (orig. positions: $65.88) Stop=$62.25
POSITION: AVP JL - Oct. $60c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 05/29/2003
CECO (Career Education--$73.21; -1.34; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 7-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-11-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. CECO has been performing well for us and after another strong move higher it is testing back to the 18 day MVA (72.10), tapping it on the low and rebounding on some rising volume. Excellent money flow and relative strength continue, and we are looking for this market leader to blast up off this level on strong volume to take new positions.
Volume: 968.79K Avg Volume: 795.727K
BUY POINT: New: $75.25 (orig. $62.55) Volume=1M Target=New positions: $86.55 (orig. positions $73.45) Stop=$72.22
POSITION: CUY JO - Oct. $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 07/10/2003
COH (Coach--$52.73; -1.36; optionable): High-end handbags and related items. Forecast to announce a split on 7-29-03 before the open in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-2-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $55.59. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-6-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. COH rallied hard to start the month and in the market selling it is testing the breakout on lower, below average volume. Thursday COH closed on the 18 day MVA on even lower volume. Money flow remains excellent as does relative strength. We have been looking for a chance to get into this stock and this chance looks to be forming.
Volume: 627.2K Avg Volume: 948.363K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $54.25; Next: $55.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$65 Stop=$51.66
POSITION: COH BK - Nov. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 03/08/2003
EBAY (Ebay--$110.21; -2.54; optionable): Internet auctions, sales. Forecast to announce a split July 24 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: EBAY announced a 3:1 stock split 1-26-99 and then a 2:1 stock split in April 2000 at a stock price of $140.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. EBAY could not get over resistance at 115, but it is doing a bit better for further entry points, testing back to the 18 day MVA on the Thursday low (109.41) and rebounding some on a big stronger, though still below average volume. This is more of the pullback we were looking for to take more positions as it removes some of the fluff and worries regarding valuation. Looking for a strong volume move higher over the 10 day MVA (111.39).
Volume: 5.659M Avg Volume: 6.4M
BUY POINT: New: 111.65 (orig. 100.25 ; 95.65; 87.25; $80.08) Volume=8M Target=$115 Stop=$105.55
POSITION: QXB JB - Oct. $110c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 06/28/2003
KRON (Kronos--$53.09; -1.83; optionable): Employee efficiency systems. Forecast to announce a split on 7-24-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed a time for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-25-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $41. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Has been caught up in the selling as it was a strong mover, selling through the 18 day MVA (53.69) Thursday but holding at some support at 52.50 and rebounding modestly. Volume was higher but it has remained lower on the test. It needs to hold here, and while it may test below 52.50 intraday, we expect it to recover. When we get a good, high volume reversal that pushes KRON past 55, that is the next entry point.
Volume: 157.563K Avg Volume: 196.272K
BUY POINT: New: Aggressive: 55.25; Next: 57.78 (orig. $51.50) Volume=300K Target=New positions: $66.45; orig. positions: $60.25 Stop=$54.75
POSITION: KUE JK - Oct. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
LXK (Lexmark Intl.--$75.07; -0.83; optionable): Printers. Forecast to announce a split on 7-21-03 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 2 for 1 split on 4-29-99 at a stock price of $110. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-30-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lxk.html
STATUS: Flat base. After trying to make the breakout early in the week LXK pulled back with the market the past two session but is doing so on below average volume. Thursday it undercut the 18 day MVA (74.94), but recovered to close over that level. Still a nice pattern, we just need to be patient and let it settle down and rally through the buy point on strong volume. Still in the current 10 week base moving in a range from 70 to 77. Accumulation in the current lateral move is positive at 3 to 2 and money flow is moving up sharply.
Volume: 1.095M Avg Volume: 1.588M
BUY POINT: $77.55 Volume=2M Target=$90 Stop=$74
POSITION: LXK JO - Oct. $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lxk.html
Play Date: 06/03/2003
TBL (Timberland--$57.54; -0.67; optionable): Apparel, footwear. Forecast to announce a split on 8-20-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed the time of the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-11-00 at a stock price of approximately $71. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-22-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tbl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over 57.50, tapping just over the 18 day MVA on the low (56.48) and rallying back on very strong volume to close at that support. That higher volume shows that buyers were ready to come back into this market leader. It is getting that additional rest, and now we are on alert for the next break higher.
Volume: 441.9K Avg Volume: 276.318K
BUY POINT: New: $59.25 (orig. $53.05) Volume=514K Target=New positions: $68; orig.: $60.88 Stop=$55
POSITION: TBL KL - Nov. $60c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tbl.html
Play Date: 07/05/2003
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$49.67; -0.49; optionable): TSCO filed its 8K but announced no split. We were looking for a board meeting announcement. The stock is still in great shape.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-18-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. This stock price was $57. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-17-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Testing the 18 day MVA (49.52) Thursday, TSCO showed a hammer doji after the recent attempt to break over 52. Volume jumped well above average on the session, and that can signal TSCO is ready to make the move higher again.
Volume: 560.984K Avg Volume: 326K
BUY POINT: New: $53.25 (orig. $51.25) Volume=500K Target=$60 Stop=$48.12
POSITION: QTF JI - Oct. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/12/2003
AMAT (Applied Materials--$18.3; -0.91; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amat.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AMAT held up very well in the market, all things considered. It tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (18.02) and managed to bounce up from there on lower though still above average volume. Super money flow, excllent relative strength, and outstanding accumulation in the 7.5 month cup with handle it just broke out of. It may need to test back another session or two, and much of its move depends upon the market. Still it is showing excellent resilience and we are looking for the next bounce on volume.
Volume: 36.149M Avg Volume: 28.606M
BUY POINT: New: Test 18 and then 18.75 on stornger volume (orig. $18.05) Volume=40M Target=$22.55 Stop=$16.79
POSITION: ANQ JW - Oct. $17.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amat.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
KSWS (K-Swiss--$37.82; -0.59; optionable): Sports shoes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Measuring for the next breakout, KSWS is working laterally over the 10 day MVA, tapping that level on the low (37.45) and rebounding to the close. Volume is still below average as it works laterally, biding its time until the retail stocks are ready to move again.
Volume: 94.1K Avg Volume: 210.136K
BUY POINT: New: $39.65 (orig. $38.55) Volume=307K Target=$45.65 Stop=$35.85
POSITION: SWU JG - Oct. $35c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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