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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Wednesday night play results:
BDY: Still testing the breakout, reaching down to the 18 day MVA and then recovering to close at the 10 day.
LIOX: Gapped higher and then reversed on some extremely high volume.
CAL: Reported much better results but could not hold the move. Remained in the same lateral range.
New Plays for Friday:
Downside:
Play Date: 07/17/2003
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$39.75; -2.1; optionable): Global positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
STATUS: Put. GRMN made us a ton on the way up from November 2002, but then it capped out in June and broke down when word came that some auto makers were not going to use its product in their vehicles. It broke below the 50 day MVA (42.64) in June, rallied back up the past three weeks to try to break back over, but after a week of struggling it has failed, dropping Thursday on much stronger, slightly above average volume. The stock continues under distribution and money flow is now tanking lower once again. There is plenty of downside room with real support at 35. Sad to see a strong performer fall by the wayside, but that is the market.
Volume: 905.531K Avg Volume: 770.772K
BUY POINT: $39.54 Volume=800K Target=$36.48 Stop=$40.72
POSITION: GQR TH - Aug. $40p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/grmn.html
Upside:
Play Date: 07/17/2003
PHMD (Photomedex--$2.64; -0.06; no options): Excimer lasers used for diagnosis
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phmd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PHMD broke out from a 7 month cup with handle late June and then ran to 3. Very nice pattern with excellent 12 to 2 accumulation (12 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) in the base. That shows overall that the big money was accumulating the stock. Money flow is excellent and relatives strength broke out with the stock. After the recent Friday and Monday PHMD is pulling back on lower volume, Thursday holding well over the 10 day MVA (2.54) and showing a tight hammer doji. After a pullback that can signal a stock is ready to start back up as the sellers have been weeded out. Looking for PHMD to move up from here on another volume burst.
Volume: 40.6K Avg Volume: 95.818K
BUY POINT: $2.74 Volume=150K Target=$3.45 Stop=$2.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/phmd.html
Continuing plays:
Play Date: 07/08/2003
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$7.1; -0.14; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Amazingly strong, hence showing excellent relative strength as it works laterally along the 18 day MVA (6.84) as volume backs off well below average. Accumulation remains strong as does money flow. Looking for the next break higher here on strong volume to add to this winner.
Volume: 223.052K Avg Volume: 384.954K
BUY POINT: $7.22 Volume=541K Target=$8.95 Stop=$6.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hpol.html
These still look ready: MERX; BDY; EBAY; KLAC; NWRE
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: AMZN, BRCM, IBM, IGEN, KLAC, MSFT, RCII, TEVA, WMT YHOO
These are the stocks that our subscribers vote to put in a 'portfolio' to track their progress and comment upon when they reach buy points, sell points, or levels to write some covered calls on. They are not intended to be held as a portfolio by subscribers and are not covered in their entirety in every report. When something interesting is developing we take note.
KLAC 01/11 Test BO 50.4 -1.38 0 0 11M 0 0
Current. Showing impressive relative strength, showing a tight doji at the 10 day MVA.
MSFT 07/14 Cup hdl 26.69 -0.83 501K 488K
Sold to the 18 day MVA on the close but was rallying after hours on guidance for the current quarter higher and for the entire year 2004. Not bad and it had stocks perking up. We will see if MSFT can enjoy the same individual success other stocks announcing good results have had.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGIL 07/07 Test 50 9.16 -1.16 10.3 12.55 1.5M 506K 9.55
Exited.
ALT 07/09 Cup hdl 1.72 -5.18 5.88 7.12 12M 375K 5.47
Exited. Glad we took some gain Wednesday. Should have taken
it all as it was destroyed on news of the failure of
its hypertension drug to reach its goal.
AMZN 05/03 BO 36.32 -1.36 30.3 35.45 7.6M 12M 37.45
Current. Testing some support at 36. Decided to see if it could give a nice bounce from here as it is good support.
ASPM 06/30 FlyPlat 7.8 -0.32 8.08 9.96 103K 115K 7.48
Buy Not Issued.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 6.77 -0.28 6.5 8.25 1.4M 500K 5.95
Current. Edging back some after the strong breakout.
ATSI 06/19 Cup hdl 4.21 -0.09 3.95 4.75 37K 225K 3.72
Current. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA. Very good action considering the market.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 10.13 -0.64 9.7 11.88 1.6M 2.4M 9.74
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA on lower volume. Needs to bounce form here.
AVID 05/22 A Wedge 38.31 -1.84 38.35 44.85 1M 750K 38.35
Exited. Falling thru the 18 day on rising volume. Cut it off.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 17.77 -0.3 19.06 22.88 218K 376K 17.73
Buy Not Hit.
BRCM 06/18 Test 18 25.38 -1.96 27.25 32.55 14M 18M 26.95
Exited. Broke the 18 day on rising volume.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 44.82 -0.7 41.25 48.55 17M 23M 44.12
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on lower volume. This is where it needs to hold.
CAL 07/12 FlyPlat 14.11 -1.36 16.02 19.25 5.7M 3.9M 14.82
Buy Not Hit.
CBIZ 06/24 Cup hdl 3.41 -0.24 3.33 4.45 187K 212K 3.12
Buy Not Issued.
CHGO 06/14 Test BO 10.95 -0.06 10.08 12.05 194K 140K 11
Current. Very nice action, holding the 18 day MVA well.
CSTL 07/09 Cup hdl 3.77 -0.73 4.2 5.2 143K 200K 3.94
Current. Did not do it, turning back over and thru the 10 day MVA.
DGIN 06/30 Test BO 19.25 -0.95 20.97 26 680K 548K 19.5
Buy Not Issued.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 36.72 -0.98 23.81 28.42 227K 225K 35.94
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on continued below average volume.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 36.72 -0.98 22.75 27.35 227K 225K 35.94
Current.
DRIV 07/10 Test BO 20.85 -1.63 24.55 29.45 1.8M 1.8M 22.83
Buy Not Hit.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 110.21 -2.54 69.45 92 5.7M 12M 105.55
Current. Testing the 18 day MVA on the low and bouncing some. May be a better entry point.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 110.21 -2.54 62.45 92 5.7M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 1.85 +0.01 1.88 2.45 73K 210K 1.78
Current. Holding some support at 1.80, trying to put together a bounce here.
FCN 06/19 Put 24.65 -0.65 25.44 23 409K 1M 24.55
Current. Rolled back down to the 18 day MVA on the close. Getting interesting and we will see if it can fall further from here.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 12.71 -0.61 10.55 12.75 439K 195K 12
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on a big rise in volume.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 12.71 -0.61 9.2 10.96 439K 195K 12
Current.
FNIS 07/04 Cup hdl 24.51 -0.55 27.86 33.45 357K 491K 25.91
Buy Not Hit. Dropping.
GRMN 07/17 Put 39.75 -2.1 39.54 36.48 906K 800K 40.72
New.
HLR 06/28 Test BO 10.99 -0.33 11.55 13.78 55K 252K 10.94
Buy Not Issued. Still working laterally.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 7.1 -0.14 7.22 8.95 223K 541K 6.68
Current. Looks ready for more.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 7.1 -0.14 6.7 8.38 223K 541K 6.68
Current.
IACI 07/13 Test BO 39.54 -1.74 42.28 48.85 7.9M 12M 39.32
Current. Was closing around some support at 40 after rallying back so we let it ride again as it is fundamentally strong as well.
IACI 03/25 Cup hdl 39.54 -1.74 29.12 33.55 7.9M 8.3M 39
Current.
IBM 06/14 Put 83.33 -3.41 0 0 13M 0 0
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down on volume below the 50 day MVA, but not a total thrashing.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 32.25 -0.49 0 0 307K 375K 36
KEM 07/08 Cup hdl 10.68 -0.82 11.65 14 452K 620K 10.83
Exited. Breaking thru the 18 day so canned it.
KFY 06/28 Cup hdl 9.05 -0.72 9.05 10.95 180K 130K 8.65
Current. Turned sharply lower though on lower volume. Needs to hold here.
KLAC 01/11 Test BO 50.4 -1.38 0 0 11M 0 0
Current. Showing impressive relative strength, showing a tight doji at the 10 day MVA.
LIOX 07/16 Test 18 4.85 -1.03 6.06 7.55 1.2M 400K 5.64
Buy Not Issued. Was up out of the gates but then reversed on high volume.
LPSN 07/07 BO 1.85 -0.32 2.22 2.95 314K 320K 1.94
Current. Rolled over on low volume for a large point loss. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA and support at 1.80.
LWSN 06/14 Cup hdl 7.03 -0.59 6.75 8.38 510K 515K 7.12
Exited. Broke thru the 18 day MVA so we closed it out with
a trailing stop.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 9.54 -0.61 10.26 12.45 86K 248K 9.54
Buy Not Hit. Testing the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 21.14 -1.51 22.8 27.95 501K 488K 21.12
Current. Gapped lower and closed at the 10 day MVA. Needs to reassert itself here.
MME 04/30 BO 53.87 -0.13 45.65 54.45 734K 634K 56
Current. Gapped down Wednesday and held steady Thursday. If it does not move over 55 Friday we will close it.
NWRE 07/12 Test BO 17.46 +0.51 18.48 22.25 547K 900K 17.19
Buy Not Issued. Looking interesting with a higher volume move off the 18 day MVA.
OEX 07/04 Test 18 17.46 +0.51 498.25 510 547K 1.8M 494
Buy Not Issued. Dropping for now.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.45 -0.03 3 3.75 651K 900K 2.78
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA.
PDLI 06/19 Put 13.67 -0.62 14.75 12.04 2.1M 2.5M 14.75
Current. Good. Finally broke below the 50 day MVA on some rising volume.
PGNX 07/04 Flat 15.67 -0.7 16.3 19.55 47K 112K 15.85
Exited. Not a heavy drop, but broke down from the nice consolidation.
We will watch it to see if it is a shakeout.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.64 -0.06 2.74 3.45 41K 150K 2.54
New.
PLXT 07/13 Cup hdl 4.92 -0.23 5.8 7.35 218K 500K 4.95
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on the low again on lower volume.
PLXT 06/07 FlyPlat 4.92 -0.23 4.48 6.45 218K 281K 4.95
Current.
POSS 06/28 Put 16.15 -0.09 13.4 11.75 286K 235K 14.75
Current. Holding at the 50 day MVA still.
PRXL 06/12 DB hdl 14.56 -1.31 14.85 17.85 173K 167K 14.75
Exited. Higher volume dump thru the 18 day so shut it down.
QSFT 07/14 Cup hdl 11.08 -0.76 13.25 15.95 924K 1.2M 12.22
Buy Not Hit. Dropping.
RATE 07/15 FlyPlat 13.66 -1.34 14.8 17.88 300K 312K 13.76
Current. Turned back down to the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 79.7 -0.15 0 0 332K 0 71.75
RNR 07/01 A Wedge 47.5 -0.68 47.32 55 269K 500K 45
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.33 -0.59 26.3 30.94 2.9M 6M 25.85
Current. Still good action, testing toward the 18 day MVA on lighter volume. Very nice action given the market.
SIGM 06/26 Test 50 11.26 -1.01 10.94 12.98 327K 550K 11.25
Current. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA on continued below average volume.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 24.5 -3.7 17.71 21.25 10M 4M 25
Current. Gapped down and sold to the 18 day MVA. Since it gapped lower we decided to let it ride and see if it can bounce from here.
SKYF 06/21 Test 50 22.44 -0.3 21.78 25 205K 250K 20.95
Buy Not Issued.
SOHU 06/26 Test 50 37.1 -3.07 29.9 35.88 4.9M 2.5M 36.55
Current. Gapped down and rebounded some from the 18 day MVA.
STST 07/07 Test BO 16.52 -1.48 15.29 18.12 88K 103K 15.95
Current. Down to the 10 day MVA on low, below average volume.
STX 05/24 Test BO 21.02 -0.54 13.95 16.75 3.2M 2.9M 18.65
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA.
STXN 07/02 Cup hdl 3.46 -0.15 3.9 5 493K 250K 3.58
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on the close. Needs to hold here.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 55.96 -1.63 0 0 3M 5M 53.75
TMWD 06/11 Test BO 2.92 -0.06 2.32 3.25 98K 140K 2.78
Current. Gapped lower but managed to recover to close above the 10 day MVA.
TPTH 06/18 A Wedge 6.86 -0.34 7.4 8.95 149K 352K 6.98
Current. Tapped the simple 50 day MVA and managed to rally back so we let it run.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 49.67 -0.49 46.85 55.25 561K 603K 48
Current. Showing a doji on rising volume at the 18 day MVA. May be ready to move back up.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 49.67 -0.49 43.75 52 561K 603K 48
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 49.67 -0.49 38.6 44.38 561K 577K 48
Current.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 27.8 -1.21 28.8 34.12 882K 2.1M 26.78
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 27.8 -1.21 23.45 28 882K 2M 27
Current.
VOCL 07/10 Cup 5.9 -0.07 5.25 6.45 202K 125K 4.88
Current. Tapped at the 18 day MVA on the low and made a very nice rebound.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 27.65 -1.3 19.76 20 7.8M 8.5M 28
Current. Gapped lower and closed at the 50 day MVA. As it gapped we decided to see if it could hold.
WMT 02/05 Put 55.8 -0.85 0 0 6.3M 8.2M 0
WWCA 05/22 BO 13.5 -0.22 11.42 13.85 2.3M 824K 12.42
Current. Very nice lateral move over the 10 day MVA.
XING 07/02 Test BO 10.2 -1.3 11.2 13.55 1.3M 499K 11.94
Current. Gapped lower. As it held support at 10 and bounced we let it run to see if it will bounce.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 30.61 -1.24 17.32 25 13M 20M 32.15
Current. Sold down to the 50 day MVA. Decided to let it ride as we have a great gain and it gapped lower and quickly found the 50 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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