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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
Play Date: 03/08/2003
EBAY (Ebay--$110.11; -0.1; optionable): Internet auctions, sales. Forecast to announce a split July 24 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: EBAY announced a 3:1 stock split 1-26-99 and then a 2:1 stock split in April 2000 at a stock price of $140.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Coming up on the forecast date EBAY is in the process of consolidating its nice move up early in the month. It has made it back to the 18 day MVA (109.45) and is holding that level. As it has done so volume has expanded the past two sessions. This is along the lines of what we were looking for to test the strong move up, and we like that it is occurring right before earnings, setting up a better chance for a move on or right before the results.
Volume: 5.278M Avg Volume: 6.813M
BUY POINT: New: 111.65 but need to see the volume (orig. 100.25 ; 95.65; 87.25; $80.08) Volume=8M Target=$115 Stop=$105.55
POSITION: QXB JB - Oct. $110c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 05/01/2003
GDW (Golden West Financial--$83.8; +2.11; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-21-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 1 split on 11-2-99 at a stock price of $114.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gdw.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GDW has formed a nice little 6 week cup with handle to consolidate the breakout and run from an earlier 5 month cup breakout. It is showing decent price/volume action, and after falling back to test the 50 day MVA (80.27) just last Thursday, GDW jumped Friday on a sharp increase in above average volume. A perennial market leader, GDW is ready to make a breakout move.
Volume: 782.7K Avg Volume: 587.744K
BUY POINT: New: 84.58 (orig. $83.60) Volume=900K Target=$95.88 Stop=$81.88
POSITION: GDW KQ - Nov. $85c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gdw.html
Play Date: 06/28/2003
KRON (Kronos--$53.09; -1.83; optionable): Employee efficiency systems. Forecast to announce a split on 7-24-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-25-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $41. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. KRON provides earnings and hopefully a split announcement Monday, and it has set up well for that. While many of the first earnings announcers had run higher right up to the announcement and were thus sold on the news, KRON has rallied well and then pulled back on lower volume to test the breakout. It is holding at the 18 day MVA (53.73), a good place to start the next leg up.
Volume: 157.563K Avg Volume: 196.272K
BUY POINT: New: Aggressive: 55.25; Next: 57.78 (orig. $51.50) Volume=300K Target=New positions: $66.45; orig. positions: $60.25 Stop=$54.75
POSITION: KUE JK - Oct. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 10/10/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$55.3; +0.91; optionable): Online education. Researching the next date as UOPX did not announce with 6-23-03 earnings. Still looking good, however, so staying with it.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. UOPX is making the second test of the 18 day MVA (53.36) since tapping the 50 day MVA in late June. Strong stocks typically test their 10 and 18 day MVA on rallies after breakouts. After testing the 50 day MVA it can bounce higher 4 to 5 times. That puts UOPX in good position to here for new positions on this market leader.
Volume: 134.43K Avg Volume: 249.357K
BUY POINT: New: $56.06 (orig. $48.60) Volume=350K Target=New position: $67 (orig. positions $58) Stop=$52.55
POSITION: UBY LK - Dec. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/12/2003
AMAT (Applied Materials--$18.18; -0.13; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amat.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the breakout AMAT continues to hold up well, testing the 10 day MVA (17.92) and holding that level Friday on very low volume. It actually undercut that support intraday but rallied to hold it on the close. Several chips are holding well despite the tech selling. Looking for AMAT to resume its move if the techs catch another bid.
Volume: 20.175M Avg Volume: 29.741M
BUY POINT: New: Test 18 and then 18.75 on stornger volume (orig. $18.05) Volume=40M Target=$22.55 Stop=$16.79
POSITION: ANQ JW - Oct. $17.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amat.html
Play Date: 07/01/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$26.64; +0.31; optionable): Coffee shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. The 3 week pullback from the early July breakout has formed a handle on a 10 week cup base. Very nice pullback on lower volume, holding the 18 day MVA on the Friday low (26.10) and rebounding sharply to the close. Solid accumulation and money flow on this very orderly test. We look for a strong jump back up on volume to enter new positions.
Volume: 2.992M Avg Volume: 4.328M
BUY POINT: New: $27.62 (orig. $26.30) Volume=6M Target=$30.94 Stop=$25.85
POSITION: SQX JE - Oct. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACS 07/19 Put 43.9 -0.3 43.45 40 1.1M 2M 45.05
New.
ACV 07/19 BO 54.5 +1.51 54.65 65.65 465K 400K 52.75
New.
AEOS 07/08 Cup hdl 21 +1.18 20.12 24.25 1.4M 1.9M 18.71
Buy Not Issued. Almost pulled the trigger Friday as volume was up but
not huge. Will be ready this week if it continues.
AET 07/17 Flat 63.44 +0.13 64.25 77.12 1.5M 2.8M 59.88
Buy Not Hit. Still in the flat base, holding well on lower volume.
AMAT 07/12 Cup hdl 18.18 -0.13 18.05 22.55 20M 40M 17.24
Current. Holding up very well on the breakout test, moving back
on low volume.
AMEV 06/07 Test BO 4.21 -0.18 4.75 6 180K 102K 4.44
Current. Testing the 50 day MVA and volume jumped as buyers
came in to support it.
APOL 05/27 Test 50 64.15 +1.48 55.07 62 1.4M 2.7M 62.45
Current. Tested lower but then up Friday to close at the 10 day MVA.
AVP 03/29 BO 63.55 +0.48 57.58 65.88 936K 1.7M 62.25
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA all week but always closed
back above it.
BCR 07/03 Test 50 69.75 +0.7 72.94 84 482K 600K 70.85
Buy Not Hit. Not the action we had looked for and the lower highs
are ont what we want to buy into.
BDX 07/17 Put 37.35 -0.03 37.25 34.25 846K 900K 38.35
Buy Not Issued. Toyed with breaking down, but after the first drop
it recovered. Still like the pattern.
BEBE 07/01 Test BO 22.02 +0.2 20.9 24.95 222K 321K 21.24
Current. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and rebounded on volume
to the 10 day MVA.
BIO 07/19 Flat 61 +4.2 61.35 73 200K 288K 59.25
New.
BLL 06/21 Put 45.74 +0.74 46 42 574K 650K 45.12
Exited. Used a trailing stop to exit.
BLUD 07/04 A Wedge 20.57 +0.07 23.25 28 186K 262K 21.62
Buy Not Issued. Not doing it after the gap down Wednesday. Dropping.
CECO 07/19 Test 18 75.41 +2.2 75.74 86.55 461K 1.2M 72.75
Current.
CECO 05/29 Test 50 75.41 +2.2 62.55 73.45 461K 1M 72.22
Current. Held the 18 day and was up off that level on a solid
price move Friday.
CGFW 06/11 Cup hdl 9.14 +0.64 7.75 9.35 89K 120K 8.44
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA test. Could use more volume
but a nice rebound start.
CHINA 06/21 Test BO 13.4 +2.15 7.95 9.55 23M 2.8M 11.78
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA on a very strong volume jump.
The foreing internets were at it again.
CHMD 06/10 FlyPlat 11.5 -0.01 10.54 12.55 25K 155K 10.75
Current. Working laterally over the 10 day MVA on no volume.
Nice breakout consolidation.
CHPC 06/28 Cup hdl 8.01 -0.13 8.45 10.75 1.1M 2.1M 8
Current. Holding the 18 day. If no improvement early this week
we will close it.
CHTT 07/04 Cup hdl 17.34 -0.09 19.95 23.94 127K 220K 18.55
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle, moving down to the 200 day MVA
Friday and showing a doji. May be ready but we dont
like those starting way down in the handle. Will keep
an eye on it but dropping for now.
COCO 07/19 Test 50 52.3 +1.78 52.95 63.65 553K 1.2M 49.24
New.
COH 07/10 BO 52.65 -0.08 55.55 65 750K 1.4M 51.66
Buy Not Issued. Doji at support.
CUB 07/04 Cup hdl 24.05 +1.04 24.35 28.95 86K 206K 23.06
Buy Not Issued. Getting ready now after the 18 day MVA shakeout.
DADE 07/08 Flat 23.09 -0.47 24.92 29.94 156K 435K 23.55
Buy Not Issued. Back down to the 50 day MVA. Will continue to watch
it but dropping for now.
DSPG 07/19 A Wedge 22.94 +0.48 23.58 28.35 212K 536K 21.93
New.
DVA 05/17 Cup hdl 28.27 +0.47 25.11 30 367K 573K 26.98
Current. Nice week and looks ready for more.
EBAY 03/08 BO 110.11 -0.1 80.08 92 5.3M 8M 105.55
Current. Holding well at the 18 day MVA. Good pullback that
it needed.
ERES 04/30 PreSplt 22.87 +1.91 15.08 17.58 992K 496K 23.65
Current. Very nice bounce off the 50 day MVA. Key point now
is 24 to clear.
ERES 01/30 Cup hdl 22.87 +1.91 15.08 17.58 992K 436K 23.65
Current.
ETN 05/31 Cup hdl 83.28 +1.01 84.25 100 494K 650K 80.85
Buy Not Issued.
EVOL 06/09 Test 50 6.3 +0.45 4.45 5.48 291K 307K 5.45
Current. Held the 10 day MVA and rallied on solid, above average
volume.
FDO 06/21 Test 18 37.4 -0.49 38.65 45 986K 1.2M 37.25
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down to the 50 day MVA. Will see if it can regroup
from here and set up a new base.
FFIV 07/14 A Wedge 17.16 +0.36 18.96 23 361K 800K 17.55
Buy Not Hit. Still working in the pattern, testing the 50 day MVA
on low volume. Just being patient.
GDW 05/01 Test BO 83.8 +2.11 83.6 95.88 783K 900K 81.88
Current. Nice move Friday as the 50 day MVA test was a good one.
GGNS 07/14 BO 3.19 -0.13 3.7 4.72 104K 250K 3.22
Current. Held the 10 day MVA on a lower volume pullback. Not
the best move after a big breakout higher. Needs to
bounce here or we punt it.
GLDN 07/12 Test BO 26.79 +0.39 28.05 33.75 145K 200K 26.09
Buy Not Issued. Came right back after the breakout attempt. Dont like
the double top action, but showed a doji at the 18
day MVA Friday. Will keep watching it.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 51.22 +3.06 41.75 48 924K 766K 47
Current. Another strong move on volume after the 18 day MVA
test and rebound Thursday that shook out the other sellers.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 51.22 +3.06 26.5 30.75 924K 521K 47
Current.
GRMN 07/17 Put 40.17 +0.42 39.54 36.48 479K 800K 40.72
Buy Not Issued. Edged up Friday on low volume. Lower volume bounce
is setting up another move lower.
HB 06/16 Put 50.74 +0.74 49.95 46.95 103K 175K 50.78
Current. Jumped up to the simple 50 day Friday. It falls early
this week or we close it.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 7.24 +0.14 7.22 8.95 136K 541K 6.68
Current. Still a very nice lateral move on very low volume,
holding the short term MVA. Getting ready for that
next breakout.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 7.24 +0.14 6.7 8.38 136K 541K 6.68
Current.
IGLD 07/07 Cup 5.82 +0.45 5.88 7.15 240K 500K 5.95
Current. Bounced up off the 50 day MVA back to the 10 day. Needs
to clear 6.
IGT 06/18 PreSplt 25.89 -0.15 24.05 25.65 2.6M 1M 25.35
Nice pullback ot he 18 day MVA, a good entry point
if it starts back up on rising volume.
IMAN 07/16 Cup hdl 4.99 -0.02 5.38 6.88 59K 244K 5
Buy Not Hit.
INB 06/24 Cup hdl 8.4 +0.2 6.15 7.88 42K 80K 7.55
Current. Holding support at 8. Moved up the stop after the
break higher that faded back.
INTU 06/26 Put 40.62 -0.46 43.95 39.35 2.3M 6M 42
Rolling down still.
KROL 07/05 Cup hdl 27.54 +0.05 27.98 33.55 277K 700K 27.25
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on teh close as volume remains
well below average.
KROL 06/14 Test BO 27.54 +0.05 26.05 30.95 277K 716K 27.25
Current.
KRON 06/28 A Wedge 54.05 +0.96 51.5 60.25 106K 300K 54.75
Current. Holding some support at 52.50 on very low volume.
KSWS 07/12 Test BO 37.53 -0.29 38.55 44.65 109K 307K 35.85
Buy Not Issued. Testing the 18 day MVA and rebounding. Need to see
volume on the move. Volume.
KSWS 04/21 FlyPlat 37.53 -0.29 30.66 35.75 109K 304K 36.94
LM 07/12 Test 18 70.17 +1.17 70.55 80 304K 700K 67.45
Buy Not Issued. Upped buy point to get it over the near resistance.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 70.17 +1.17 58.5 67.78 304K 610K 67
Current. Tapped the 18 day on the Thursday low and then started
back up Friday.
LXK 07/12 Flat 73.5 -1.57 77.55 90 2.5M 2M 74.45
Current. Some nervousness ahead of the Monday morning earnings.
MME 04/30 BO 53.87 0 45.65 54.45 598K 634K 56
Exited. Could not recover over the 18 day MVA.
MRGE 07/19 Test BO 16.19 +1.16 16.35 19.65 133K 239K 14
MRGE 04/24 Rv H&S 16.19 +1.16 8.06 10.45 133K 65K 14.38
Current. Started up off the 10 day MVA on rising volume after
the test.
NUAN 07/12 BO 5.35 +0.29 6.15 8 219K 414K 5.72
Buy Not Hit. Peeled back more than we wanted, faling all the way
to the 50 day MVA. Rebounded but needs to show some
very strong volume on the move. Will keep an eye on
it but dropping for now.
OPSW 07/15 Test BO 5.29 +0.25 5.95 7.25 320K 850K 5.53
Buy Not Hit. Has come back to totally test the break higher. Low
volume on the pullback, but now we need to see it blast
higher on volume.
PDLI 06/19 Put 13.84 +0.17 14.75 12.04 2.5M 2.5M 14.75
Current. Gapped higher bug then turned lower again to close
below the 50 day MVA.
PIXR 07/05 Cup hdl 66.96 +1.4 62.8 71.75 423K 1.2M 65.94
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and has started higher. Good action.
PPE 07/12 Test BO 8.78 +0.13 9.28 12 477K 1.6M 8.82
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle, testing the 50 day on the Thursday
low and rebounding. We will see.
PWAV 07/15 Test BO 7.21 +0.17 8.12 9.75 1.5M 2.1M 7.45
Buy Not Hit. Tight doji on the 18 day MVA with some rising volume.
QDEL 07/02 A Wedge 6.49 -0.08 6.8 8.12 16K 125K 6.32
Current. Holding the breakout but a full test. Needs to make
the bounce here and we think it will.
RCNC 07/09 Test BO 2.76 +0.07 2.58 3.05 436K 718K 2.42
Current. Held the 10 day MVA in the low volume test. Looking
for it to move up from here.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.64 +0.31 26.3 30.94 3M 6M 25.85
Current. Has formed a nice handle, tapping the 18 day on the
Friday low and rebounding.
SJM 07/07 Cup hdl 40.3 +0.34 42.12 50.55 119K 316K 40.05
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle. That is about all you can say
right now.
SLM 06/24 Test 18 41.08 +0.48 42.88 49.25 1.5M 3.5M 41
Buy Not Hit. Fell to the 50 day MVA. Still need to see the breakout
move.
SOHU 06/21 Test 50 40.9 +3.8 28.5 35 4.5M 2.5M 32.48
Current. Above average volume jump off the 18 day MVA as an
early leader races back up again.
SSTI 07/08 Cup hdl 5 +0.37 5.22 6.72 1.5M 1.4M 4.98
Current. Nice recovery. Needs to clear 5 and run on volume.
SWKS 07/10 Test BO 7.84 +0.04 8.9 10.96 3.1M 5.5M 8.06
Exited.
TBL 06/03 Test BO 49.17 -8.37 53.05 60.88 2.7M 514K 55
Exited. Broke the 50 day in an implosion on a warning.
TPC 06/17 Test BO 5.52 +0.02 5.95 7.55 42K 466K 5.45
Buy Not Issued. May be a final shakeout with a low volme move to the
18 day MVA.
TSCM 07/17 Rv H&S 5.4 0 5.82 7.55 162K 210K 5.38
New. Volume was up FRiday as TSCM showed a tight doji over
the 18 day MVA.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 49.52 -0.15 51.25 60 351K 500K 48.12
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 49.52 -0.15 46.85 55.25 351K 603K 48
Current. Tight doji at the 18 day MVA. Still in good shape.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 49.52 -0.15 43.75 52 351K 603K 48
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 49.52 -0.15 38.6 44.38 351K 577K 48
Current.
TSM 06/18 Test 18 9.86 -0.06 10.95 13 7M 9M 10.06
Buy Not Issued. Testing the 50 day MVA. Needs to form up better. Dropping
for now.
UCBH 03/24 Cup 29.72 +0.11 22.03 24.75 1.4M 200K 29.45
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 27.51 -0.29 28.8 34.12 784K 2.1M 26.78
Current. Tested lower but an excellent recovery to hold the
18 day MVA.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 27.51 -0.29 23.45 28 784K 2M 27
Current.
UOPX 10/10 Rv H&S 55.3 +0.91 48.6 58 134K 350K 52.55
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and was up Friday. Good place
to move if it can get some volume.
VSEA 07/12 Test BO 34.03 +0.33 34.5 40.95 996K 1.4M 32.08
Current. Holding nicely with a doji at the 10 day MVA on rising
volume.
WLP 07/19 Put 81.69 +1.52 81.94 77.85 972K 1.6M 83.15
New.
WSH 07/12 Put 28.42 +0.14 28.65 26 944K 1.4M 29.85
Current. Still working down the 10 day MVA.
WWCA 05/22 BO 13.55 +0.05 11.42 13.85 1.2M 824K 12.42
Current. Nice lateral move and the 10 day MVA has moved up to
test. Ready to move up from here.
XING 07/02 Test BO 8.99 -0.28 11.2 13.55 573K 499K 11.94
Current. Volume jumped back as XING recovered to the 10 day
MVA. Needs to keep going from here.
XMSR 07/16 Cup hdl 12.49 +0.1 14.25 17.25 2.8M 11M 13.12
Buy Not Hit. Nice doji at the 18 day MVA on oow volume. May be ready now.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
stock recommendation
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