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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Friday: ATYT; GPRO; GSPN; MRGE; PHMD; RINO; SINA; SOHU; XING
New Plays:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$43.9; -0.3; optionable): Computer ITS
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: Descending triangle. ACS is back at the bottom of a bearish 2 month descending triangle, a pattern of lower and lower highs with a constant bottom at 44. The highs keep getting lower until the stock breaks through. When it breaks it can drop quickly, and we want to be ready to get in on that move. Tanking money flow is leading the way lower for a breakdown as ACS is trending lower below all of its moving averages.
Volume: 1.125M Avg Volume: 1.891M
BUY POINT: $43.45 Volume=2M Target=$40 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: ACS UI - Sept. $45p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/acs.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
ADRX (Andrx Corp.--$18.81; -0.69; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adrx.html
STATUS: Put. ADRX topped at 24 in June and then fell to the 50 day MVA (19.27). It made a bounce higher to 22, but there was no volume on the move with trade well below average. Last week it started down again, Friday breaking below the 50 day once more on some rising though still below average volume. We are looking for a quick drop here to take it down to near the 200 day MVA and price support at that level as well.
Volume: 1.587M Avg Volume: 1.587M
BUY POINT: $18.62 Volume=1.8M Target=$16 Stop=$19.95
POSITION: QAX UD - Sept. $20p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adrx.html
Upside:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
VVTV (Valuevision Media--$15.9; +0.13; optionable): Catalog and mail order
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vvtv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. VVTV is working on a very nice weeklong handle to a good looking 7.5 month base. The handle is where the stock approaches the old higher where the base or pullback originially started and then price starts to drop off. Those holding and hoping to get out 'even' at the old price get scared it is going to head into another plunge lower. They sell out. The stock does not tank, however, because all during the base it was under accumulation if the weekly accumulation numbers are positive. For VVTV they are at a solid at 9 to 6. That means most of the sellers are gone and most of the action has been big money accumulation. When the last sellers in the handle are gone there is not enough supply and then you have the breakout. Friday volume spiked higher as VVTV showed a sign that it was ready to move. Retailers look good and VVTV has a lot of positives.
Volume: 245.433K Avg Volume: 152.377K
BUY POINT: $16.38 Volume=250K Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.23
POSITION: UVR IC - Sept. $15c (71 delta) or UVR LC - Dec. $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vvtv.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
ONXX (Onyx Pharmaceuticals--$14.65; +0.89; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/onxx.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. ONXX has been very strong. It ran to 14 in early June but ran into trouble as the market stalled some there. It tested back toward the 50 day MVA near 12 and then rebounded back to the prior June high. It again stalled and slipped back to the 18 day MVA (13.74) last week in the selling, but volume was very low. Friday it turned, making a higher low as volume jumped back up. That is an indication that it is ready to break the June high and make us some money. Accumulation in the June to present pullback is excellent at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume; the buyers used the pullback to accumulate stock and they were much more plentiful than the sellers.
Volume: 322.68K Avg Volume: 330.318K
BUY POINT: $15.38 Volume=495K Target=$18.55 Stop=$14.08
POSITION: OIQ KC - Nov. $15c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/onxx.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
BIO (Bio-rad Labs--$61; +4.2; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bio.html
STATUS: Flat base. After breaking out of a 5 month cup base with a huge gap higher in late April. It shot up to 60 and then formed the current 2 month flat base, consolidating that move on mostly lower, below average volume. Accumulation in that first base was solid at 7 to 5. Money flow is excellent, and after a quick test of the 50 day MVA (56.70) Thursday, BIO was up sharply Friday on a strong shot of volume that moved back up to average. Looking for a breakout over the top of the recent high in the range.
Volume: 200.1K Avg Volume: 192.136K
BUY POINT: $61.35 Volume=288K Target=$73 Stop=$59.25
POSITION: BIO IL - Sept. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bio.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Still look good: EXLT; FSII; GSPN; IDT; MDP NWRE; RCNC; SCH; TSCM; VSEA; WWCA; XRIT
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACS 07/19 Put 43.9 -0.3 43.45 40 1.1M 2M 45.05
New.
ADAT 06/28 Cup hdl 3.65 +0.08 3.95 5 78K 201K 3.67
Buy Not Hit. Still in the pattern. Will keep watching it but dropping
for now.
ADRX 07/19 Put 18.81 -0.69 18.62 16 1.6M 1.8M 19.95
New.
AMEV 06/07 Test BO 4.21 -0.18 4.75 6 180K 102K 4.44
Current. Testing the 50 day MVA and volume jumped as buyers
came in to support it.
APOL 05/27 Test 50 64.15 +1.48 55.07 62 1.4M 2.7M 62.45
Current. Tested lower but then up Friday to close at the 10 day MVA.
ASPM 06/30 FlyPlat 7.99 +0.19 8.33 10 38K 115K 7.72
Buy Not Issued. Trying to make the move last week but volume was not
there Friday. Moved up the buy point to make sure it
is clear the next time it rallies on volume.
ATSI 06/19 Cup hdl 4.26 +0.05 3.95 4.75 63K 225K 3.98
Current. Still moving laterally over the 10 day showing a doji
Friday.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 10.76 +0.63 9.7 11.88 3.7M 2.4M 9.74
Current. Tested lower, held the 18 day MVA and surged back up
on strong volume.
BBBY 06/21 Put 38.56 +0.96 39.92 36.75 5.5M 4M 39.48
Exited. Bounced higher on volume so we closed it.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 18.1 +0.33 19.06 22.88 224K 376K 17.73
Buy Not Hit. Held the 18 day MVA on the test. Needs to show some
life here.
BEBE 07/01 Test BO 22.02 +0.2 20.9 24.95 222K 321K 21.24
Current. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and rebounded on volume
to the 10 day MVA.
BIO 07/19 Flat 61 +4.2 61.35 73 200K 288K 59.25
New.
BLL 06/21 Put 45.74 +0.74 46 42 574K 650K 45.12
Exited. Used a trailing stop to exit.
CBIZ 06/24 Cup hdl 3.44 +0.03 3.33 4.45 66K 212K 3.12
Buy Not Issued. After the breakout CBIZ has come back to test the 18
day MVA, just holding the breakout. On a volume move
higher from here it is ready.
CCMP 07/07 Cup hdl 57.61 +0.93 58.25 66.65 731K 1.3M 55.55
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 18 day on the low and rebounded for a gain.
May be ready.
CGFW 06/11 Cup hdl 9.14 +0.64 7.75 9.35 89K 120K 8.44
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA test. Could use more volume
but a nice rebound start.
CHINA 06/21 Test BO 13.4 +2.15 7.95 9.55 23M 2.8M 11.78
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA on a very strong volume jump.
The foreing internets were at it again.
CHMD 06/10 FlyPlat 11.5 -0.01 10.54 12.55 25K 155K 10.75
Current. Working laterally over the 10 day MVA on no volume.
Nice breakout consolidation.
CHTT 07/04 Cup hdl 17.34 -0.09 19.95 23.94 127K 220K 18.55
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle, moving down to the 200 day MVA
Friday and showing a doji. May be ready but we dont
like those starting way down in the handle. Will keep
an eye on it but dropping for now.
CSTL 07/09 Cup hdl 3.71 -0.05 4.2 5.2 111K 200K 3.94
Current. Bounced up off the 18 day Friday. If it does not improve
early this week we close it.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 36.95 +0.23 23.81 28.42 136K 225K 35.94
Current.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 36.95 +0.23 22.75 27.35 136K 225K 35.94
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
DRIV 07/10 Test BO 21.98 +1.13 24.55 29.45 902K 1.8M 22.83
Buy Not Hit. Will keep an eye on it but the nice hold at the 10
day MVA fell through.
DSCM 07/10 Test BO 5.41 +0.06 6.36 8.12 720K 425K 5.91
Buy Not Hit. Doji on the 50 day MVA on a strong volume shot. Looking
for a bounce on strong volume to clear the June intraday
highs.
DVA 05/17 Cup hdl 28.27 +0.47 25.11 30 367K 573K 26.98
Current. Nice week and looks ready for more.
EXLT 06/16 Flat 9.83 +0.33 9 11 197K 1.1M 8.94
Current.
FCN 06/19 Put 25.46 +0.81 25.44 23 736K 1M 24.55
Current. At the simple 50 day MVA.
FFIV 07/14 A Wedge 17.16 +0.36 18.96 23 361K 800K 17.55
Buy Not Hit. Still working in the pattern, testing the 50 day MVA
on low volume. Just being patient.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 12.74 +0.03 10.55 12.75 399K 195K 12.45
Current.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 12.74 +0.03 9.2 10.96 399K 195K 12.45
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and held. Will see if it can
bounce from here.
FSII 07/12 Cup hdl 4.5 -0.06 4.9 6.25 258K 333K 4.45
Current. Nice handle has formed tapping the 18 day MVA on the
Friday low and rebounding on volume. Getting ready
for the next leg.
GERN 06/16 Test BO 8.1 +0.01 7.55 9.95 676K 2.5M 7.85
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on low volume with a doji. on
some very low volume. Setting up well for the next leg.
GGNS 07/14 BO 3.19 -0.13 3.7 4.72 104K 250K 3.22
Current. Held the 10 day MVA on a lower volume pullback. Not
the best move after a big breakout higher. Needs to
bounce here or we punt it.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 51.22 +3.06 41.75 48 924K 766K 47
Current. Another strong move on volume after the 18 day MVA
test and rebound Thursday that shook out the other sellers.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 51.22 +3.06 26.5 30.75 924K 521K 47
Current.
GRMN 07/17 Put 40.17 +0.42 39.54 36.48 479K 800K 40.72
Buy Not Issued. Edged up Friday on low volume. Lower volume bounce
is setting up another move lower.
GSPN 06/26 Test 50 9.36 +0.81 8.85 10.75 4.6M 3.7M 8.65
Current. Excellent recovery off the 50 day MVA. bouncing on
strong, above average volume.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 7.24 +0.14 7.22 8.95 136K 541K 6.68
Current. Still a very nice lateral move on very low volume,
holding the short term MVA. Getting ready for that
next breakout.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 7.24 +0.14 6.7 8.38 136K 541K 6.68
Current.
HPOL 06/04 Cup hdl 7.24 +0.14 5.85 6.95 136K 541K 6.68
Current.
HTCH 05/14 A Wedge 34.54 +0.13 29 33.35 523K 802K 33.95
Current. Back to support at 34 on below average volume. Holding
well at this support and looking for a volume bounce
from here.
IDT 07/12 Cup hdl 18.13 +0.04 18.35 21.95 156K 200K 17.88
Buy Not Issued. Volume started higher toward the end of the week in
the handle. Looks ready to make the move.
IMAN 07/16 Cup hdl 4.99 -0.02 5.38 6.88 59K 244K 5
Buy Not Hit.
INB 06/24 Cup hdl 8.4 +0.2 6.15 7.88 42K 80K 7.55
Current. Holding support at 8. Moved up the stop after the
break higher that faded back.
INET 07/08 Test BO 5.25 +0.14 5.44 6.55 925K 1M 5.03
Current. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and started up again
after dumping back Thursday. Filled the gap and may
now be ready to bounce.
INTU 06/26 Put 40.62 -0.46 43.95 39.35 2.3M 6M 42
Rolling down still.
KFY 06/28 Cup hdl 9.38 +0.33 9.05 10.95 81K 130K 8.88
Current. Thudded back Thursday but then held some support at
9 and started to bounce.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 50.27 -0.13 52.25 60 8.4M 14M 49.85
New. Very nice lower volume pullback to creat the handle,
showing nice tight dojis.
KROL 07/05 Cup hdl 27.54 +0.05 27.98 33.55 277K 700K 27.25
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on teh close as volume remains
well below average.
KROL 06/14 Test BO 27.54 +0.05 26.05 30.95 277K 716K 27.25
Current.
KRON 06/28 A Wedge 54.05 +0.96 51.5 60.25 106K 300K 54.75
Current. Holding some support at 52.50 on very low volume.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 70.17 +1.17 58.5 67.78 304K 610K 67
Current. Tapped the 18 day on the Thursday low and then started
back up Friday.
MDP 07/16 Cup hdl 46.44 +0.24 47.12 56.55 188K 340K 45
Buy Not Hit. Very nice handle edging higher Friday.
MER 04/28 Cup hdl 52.74 +0.64 43.32 49.55 6.1M 7.5M 49.94
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA and bounced as financials managed
to recover a bit and start to look better.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 9.16 -0.38 10.26 12.45 96K 248K 9.54
Buy Not Hit. May be a shakeout on lower volume as MERX tests toward
the 18 day MVA at 9.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 21.66 +0.52 22.8 27.95 510K 488K 21.12
Current. Held the breakout and over the 10 day MVA, starting
back up as volume started to rise.
MME 04/30 BO 53.87 0 45.65 54.45 598K 634K 56
Exited. Could not recover over the 18 day MVA.
MRGE 07/19 Test BO 16.19 +1.16 16.35 19.65 133K 239K 14
MRGE 04/24 Rv H&S 16.19 +1.16 8.06 10.45 133K 65K 14.38
Current. Started up off the 10 day MVA on rising volume after
the test.
NENG 05/05 Cup hdl 3.72 -0.15 2.08 3.44 208K 232K 4.05
Current. Very low volume pullback that held 3.50 on the low
and rebounded on the close. Needs to bounce over 4
early in the week or we exit, but this looks like a
shakeout.
NWRE 07/12 Test BO 17.58 +0.12 18.48 22.25 228K 900K 17.19
Buy Not Issued. Held the 18 day MVA and bounced some Friday. Now we
see if it has any backing.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.29 -0.16 3 3.75 415K 900K 3
Current. Low volume pullback after the strong break higher
ONXX 07/19 Test 18 14.65 +0.89 15.38 18.55 323K 495K 14.08
New.
OPSW 07/15 Test BO 5.29 +0.25 5.95 7.25 320K 850K 5.53
Buy Not Hit. Has come back to totally test the break higher. Low
volume on the pullback, but now we need to see it blast
higher on volume.
PGNX 07/04 Flat 15.79 +0.12 16.3 19.55 30K 112K 15.85
Current. Has tested the 18 day MVA and the breakout. Now looking
for a move back up off this doji. It was marked exited
Thursday but that was an error.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.92 +0.28 2.9 3.75 676K 150K 2.68
Current. Excellent volume as PHMD broke higher with a gap up
on volume.
PIXR 07/05 Cup hdl 66.96 +1.4 62.8 71.75 423K 1.2M 65.94
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and has started higher. Good action.
PKI 03/04 Test BO 14.32 +0.32 9.16 13.55 876K 1M 13.75
Current. Gapped lower again but then rebounded over the 10 day
MVA on strong volume.
POSS 06/28 Put 16.58 +0.43 13.4 11.75 400K 235K 14.75
Exited.
PPE 07/12 Test BO 8.78 +0.13 9.28 12 477K 1.6M 8.82
Buy Not Hit. Still in the handle, testing the 50 day on the Thursday
low and rebounding. We will see.
PWAV 07/15 Test BO 7.21 +0.17 8.12 9.75 1.5M 2.1M 7.45
Buy Not Hit. Tight doji on the 18 day MVA with some rising volume.
QDEL 07/02 A Wedge 6.49 -0.08 6.8 8.12 16K 125K 6.32
Current. Holding the breakout but a full test. Needs to make
the bounce here and we think it will.
RCNC 07/09 Test BO 2.76 +0.07 2.58 3.05 436K 718K 2.42
Current. Held the 10 day MVA in the low volume test. Looking
for it to move up from here.
RINO 06/28 Put 11.24 -0.31 12.12 10 505K 375K 12.05
Current. Still moving down the short term MVA, falling on much
stronger volume Friday.
RNR 07/01 A Wedge 48.04 +0.54 47.32 55 465K 500K 45
Buy Not Issued.
SCH 07/14 Cup hdl 11.48 +0.27 11.92 14.45 3.8M 7.5M 11.05
Buy Not Issued. Still working in the handle to the base.
SGMS 05/29 Test BO 8.99 -0.28 8.55 10.15 573K 571K 9
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop as SGMS broke the 18 day
on stronger volume.
SIGM 06/26 Test 50 11.23 -0.03 10.94 12.98 162K 550K 11.25
Current. Deep doji but recovered well. Needs to make a move
early this week.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 29.02 +4.52 17.71 21.25 12M 4M 25
Current. Impressive recovery off the 18 day MVA on volume. One
of the leaders that took off already.
SOHU 06/21 Test 50 40.9 +3.8 28.5 35 4.5M 2.5M 32.48
Current. Above average volume jump off the 18 day MVA as an
early leader races back up again.
SSTI 07/08 Cup hdl 5 +0.37 5.22 6.72 1.5M 1.4M 4.98
Current. Nice recovery. Needs to clear 5 and run on volume.
STST 07/07 Test BO 16.32 -0.2 15.29 18.12 159K 103K 15.95
Current. Holding at the 18 day MVA with a big doji indicating
it could make the turn back up here.
STX 05/24 Test BO 20.03 -0.99 13.95 16.75 5.2M 2.9M 19.55
Current. Gapped lower but held some support at 20. Moved up
the stop.
SWIR 07/07 Test BO 8.37 +0.47 7.38 8.96 480K 355K 7.45
Current. Gapped up from the 18 day MVA test.
TMWD 06/11 Test BO 2.91 -0.01 2.32 3.25 66K 140K 2.78
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA test but no volume. Needs to
clear 3 on a strong trade this week.
TPTH 06/18 A Wedge 6.97 +0.11 7.4 8.95 57K 352K 6.98
Current. Hit the 50 day MVA and bounded. Has to get some volume
and break 7.50 or we close it.
TSCM 07/17 Rv H&S 5.4 0 5.82 7.55 162K 210K 5.38
New. Volume was up FRiday as TSCM showed a tight doji over
the 18 day MVA.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 49.52 -0.15 46.85 55.25 351K 603K 48
Current. Tight doji at the 18 day MVA. Still in good shape.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 49.52 -0.15 43.75 52 351K 603K 48
Current.
TSM 06/18 Test 18 9.86 -0.06 10.95 13 7M 9M 10.06
Buy Not Issued. Testing the 50 day MVA. Needs to form up better. Dropping
for now.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 27.64 -0.01 19.76 20 5.8M 8.5M 28
Current. Gapped to the 50 day Thursday and holding there Friday.
VSEA 07/12 Test BO 34.03 +0.33 34.5 40.95 996K 1.4M 32.08
Current. Holding nicely with a doji at the 10 day MVA on rising
volume.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 15.9 +0.13 16.38 19.75 245K 250K 15.23
New.
WWCA 05/22 BO 13.55 +0.05 11.42 13.85 1.2M 824K 12.42
Current. Nice lateral move and the 10 day MVA has moved up to
test. Ready to move up from here.
XICO 07/02 A Wedge 7.57 -0.17 7.25 8.65 90K 172K 7.45
Current. Nice test, holding the 18 day MVA. Nice pullback.
XING 07/02 Test BO 8.99 -0.28 11.2 13.55 573K 499K 11.94
Current. Volume jumped back as XING recovered to the 10 day
MVA. Needs to keep going from here.
XMSR 07/16 Cup hdl 12.49 +0.1 14.25 17.25 2.8M 11M 13.12
Buy Not Hit. Nice doji at the 18 day MVA on oow volume. May be ready
now.
XRIT 07/04 Cup 11.01 +0.2 11.09 13.45 17K 75K 10.56
Current. Has formed a nice handle here and looks ready for a
breakout from the new cup with handle.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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