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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Monday: LIOX; PDLI
Weekend play results:
ADRX: Ran down but managed to recover to the 50 day MVA.
ILXO: Volume jumped up as it continued the handle.
MU: Very solid even in the tech selling.
VVTV: Very nice handle still forming.
KLAC: Another nice, low volume doji.
New Plays for Tuesday:
Downside:
Play Date: 07/21/2003
FLS (Flowserve--$17.1; -2.08; optionable): Manufacturing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fls.html
STATUS: Put. FLS crashed through the 50 day MVA (18.18) Monday on soaring volume ahead of its Tuesday earnings announcement. The stock fell out of a flat 7 week base in the process. We are looking for it to test up toward 18 before the announcement, and want to catch it on the fall back down from there.
Volume: 1.482M Avg Volume: 354K
BUY POINT: Test of 18 then $17.25 on the way back down. Volume=525K Target=$14.45 Stop=$18.45
POSITION: FLS UW - Sept. $17.50p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fls.html
Upside:
Play Date: 07/21/2003
TZIX (Trizetto Group--$7.00; +0.50; no options): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tzix.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. TZIX is working through a 9 month base showing excellent 8 to 3 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Monday the stock tested the 18 day MVA on the low (6.40) and then surged on super above average volume. It closed off of its intraday high (7.40) as some took profits before earnings are announced before the open Tuesday. We are going to see if TZIX can complete the breakout on the eanrings announcement. A very nice accumulation pattern for TZIX as it attempts to make its move up off of its long base.
Volume: 313.983K Avg Volume: 132.818K
BUY POINT: $7.55 Volume=200K Target=$9.25 Stop=$6.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tzix.html
Continuing plays:
Play Date: 05/22/2003
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$12.74; 0.00; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FLSH continues the nice breakout test, holding the 18 day MVA on the Monday low (12.55) as the candlestick chart showed a tight doji on lower, below average volume. Excellent accumulation and money flow, and relative strength is ready for another breakout when the stock starts higher yet again.
Volume: 145.35K Avg Volume: 239.727K
BUY POINT: New: $13.22 (orig. $10.55) Volume=195K Target=New positions: $15.85 (orig. positions $12.75) Stop=$12.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/flsh.html
Play Date: 07/15/2003
MERX (Merix--$9.42; +0.26; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MERX is working in a 3 week handle to its 8 month base, pulling back to test the 18 day MVA (8.97). on lower, below average volume. Monday MERX moved up off the 18 day on rising, average volume. Money flow is surging and accumulation is solid at 6 to 4. Relative strength is solid as well. Looking for a breakout after this nice shakeout in the handle.
Volume: 192.702K Avg Volume: 167.09K
BUY POINT: $10.26 Volume=248K Target=$12.45 Stop=$9.54
POSITION: KXQ IB - Sept. $10c (91 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/merx.html
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 31.05 +1.15 17.32 25 16M 20M 32.15
Current. Up off the 50 day MVA on rising, above average volume. A move over 32 on volume is the next buy point.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 49.66 -0.61 52.25 60 7M 14M 49.85
Buy not hit. Looks very good still with a test of the 18 day MVA on the low and a bounce back on lower, below average volume.
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: ATSI; EBAY; WWCA; MKSI; KLAC; IACI is giving a nice 50 day MVA test.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADRX 07/19 Put 19.41 +0.6 18.62 16 1.5M 1.8M 19.95
Buy Not Issued. Fell but then recovered to close back at the 50 day.
Will be patient & see if it can break lower again.
AMZN 05/03 BO 35.33 +0.35 30.3 35.45 9.8M 12M 37.45
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA test.
ASPM 06/30 FlyPlat 8.18 +0.19 8.33 10 32K 115K 7.72
Buy Not Issued. Was looking solid price-wise, but could not generate
any volume. Watching closely for that stronger volume move.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 6.45 -0.29 6.5 8.25 498K 500K 6.25
Current. Sold to the 10 day MVA, but rallied back to hold that level after earlier selling.
ATSI 06/19 Cup hdl 4.23 -0.03 3.95 4.75 146K 225K 3.98
Current. Very nice lateral move over the 10 day MVA, with volume spiking up Monday.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 10.62 -0.14 9.7 11.88 1.3M 2.4M 9.74
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA in the modest pullback.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 17.75 -0.35 19.06 22.88 129K 376K 17.73
Buy Not Hit.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 44.95 -0.79 41.25 48.55 12M 23M 44.62
Current. Still hanging onto the 18 day MVA. This is where it makes a stand.
CBIZ 06/24 Cup hdl 3.39 -0.05 3.33 4.45 96K 212K 3.12
Buy Not Issued.
CHGO 06/14 Test BO 11.25 +0.15 10.08 12.05 66K 140K 11
Current. Held the 18 day MVA and now is trying to move back up.
CSTL 07/09 Cup hdl 3.96 +0.25 4.2 5.2 69K 200K 3.94
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA. A good first step but needs some volume.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 37.4 +0.45 23.81 28.42 166K 225K 35.94
Current. Tight doji over the 18 day MVA.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 37.4 +0.45 22.75 27.35 166K 225K 35.94
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 111.06 +0.95 69.45 92 4.2M 12M 105.55
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA, but not attracting any trade yet.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 111.06 +0.95 62.45 92 4.2M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 1.92 +0.08 1.88 2.45 158K 210K 1.78
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA on some sharply higher volume.
FCN 06/19 Put 25.07 -0.39 25.44 23 389K 1M 24.55
Current. Turned back at the simple 50 day MVA.
FLS 07/21 Put 17.1 -2.08 17.25 14.45 1.5M 525K 18.45
New.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 12.74 0 10.55 12.75 145K 195K 12.45
Current.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 12.74 0 9.2 10.96 145K 195K 12.45
Current.
GRMN 07/17 Put 40.5 +0.33 39.54 36.48 242K 800K 40.72
Buy Not Issued. Still hanging on but on low volume. Looking for a rollover.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 6.88 -0.36 7.22 8.95 140K 541K 6.68
Current. Tested lower but managed to recover to hold the 18 day MVA.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 6.88 -0.36 6.7 8.38 140K 541K 6.68
Current.
IACI 07/13 Test BO 38.33 -0.16 42.28 48.85 6M 12M 39.32
Current. Nice doji right on the 50 day MVA. This could turn out to be a good entry point. ON a volume jump higher it is a new buy/add-to point.
IACI 03/25 Cup hdl 38.33 -0.16 29.12 33.55 6M 8.3M 39
Current.
IBM 06/14 Put 82.5 -1.22 0 0 7M 0 0
Buy Not Issued.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 34.4 +0.51 0 0 709K 375K 36
ILXO 07/19 Cup hdl 18.43 -1.44 21.75 26.12 553K 601K 19.96
Buy Not Hit. Could not continue the Friday momentum and turned lower
on even stronger volume.
KFY 06/28 Cup hdl 9.1 -0.28 9.05 10.95 98K 130K 8.88
Current. Turned right back down to the 18 day MVA.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 49.66 -0.61 52.25 60 7M 14M 49.85
Buy not hit. Looks very good still.
LIOX 07/16 Test 18 6.8 +1.01 6.58 8.05 1.3M 400K 5.92
Current. Excellent volume surge overcomes the Thursday reversal
session.
LPSN 07/07 BO 1.88 -0.02 2.22 2.95 92K 320K 1.94
Current. gapped higher but fell back to the 18 day MVA again on lower, below average volume.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 9.42 +0.26 10.26 12.45 193K 248K 9.54
Buy Not Hit. Holding the 18 day MVA. Good volume surge up to average so we are getting ready.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 20.83 -0.83 22.8 27.95 226K 488K 21.12
Current. Holding over the 18 day MVA on a low volume test.
MU 07/19 Cup hdl 14.01 -0.29 14.85 17.85 11M 16M 13.74
Buy Not Hit.
NWRE 07/12 Test BO 17.86 +0.28 18.48 22.25 295K 900K 17.19
Buy Not Issued.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.19 -0.1 3 3.75 221K 900K 3
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on low volume.
PDLI 06/19 Put 13.51 -0.33 14.75 12.04 2.5M 2.5M 14.75
Current. Volume is increasing as PDLI starts down again below the 50 day MVA.
PGNX 07/04 Flat 13.4 -2.39 16.3 19.55 132K 112K 15.85
Exited.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.87 -0.05 2.9 3.75 292K 150K 2.68
Current. Rallied higher and then gave the move back. Still trending higher above the 10 day MVA.
RATE 07/15 FlyPlat 14.2 -0.01 14.8 17.88 62K 312K 13.76
Current. Still a nice, low volume lateral move over the 10 day MVA.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 80.75 -0.17 0 0 300K 0 71.75
RNR 07/01 A Wedge 48.06 +0.02 47.32 55 226K 500K 45
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.7 +0.06 26.3 30.94 3.2M 6M 25.85
Current. Still looks very good over the 18 day MVA.
SIGM 06/26 Test 50 10.5 -0.73 10.94 12.98 112K 550K 11.25
Exited. Unable to recapture the 18 day MVA.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 28.69 -0.33 17.71 21.25 11M 4M 25
Current. Held steady in the selling.
SKYF 06/21 Test 50 22.7 +0.26 21.78 25 279K 250K 20.95
Buy Not Issued.
SOHU 06/26 Test 50 40.61 -0.29 29.9 35.88 4.5M 2.5M 36.55
Current. Held steady same as SINA.
STST 07/07 Test BO 16.49 +0.17 15.29 18.12 44K 103K 15.95
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA with a nice tight doji on low volume.
STX 05/24 Test BO 19.75 -0.28 13.95 16.75 3.3M 2.9M 19.55
Exited. Was breaking below the 18 day MVA so exited with a
trailing stop.
STXN 07/02 Cup hdl 3.45 -0.24 3.9 5 381K 250K 3.58
Exited. Tapped the 50 day MVA and rebounded but unable to retake
the 18 day where it has struggled so closed position.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 55.56 -0.25 0 0 1.2M 5M 53.75
Giving us a very nice, low volume test of support at 55. On a move over 57.65 it is another buy.
TMWD 06/11 Test BO 3 +0.09 2.32 3.25 140K 140K 2.78
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA on some rising volume.
TPTH 06/18 A Wedge 6.81 -0.16 7.4 8.95 92K 352K 6.98
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA, but needs to show us something.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 51.01 +1.49 46.85 55.25 285K 603K 48
Current. Announced a stock split and moved up nicely off the 18 day MVA!
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 51.01 +1.49 43.75 52 285K 603K 48
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 51.01 +1.49 38.6 44.38 285K 577K 48
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7 +0.5 7.55 9.25 314K 200K 6.96
New.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 27.67 +0.16 28.8 34.12 538K 2.1M 26.78
Current. Nice doji right on the 18 day MVA. UNTD is just biding its time for the next strong move up.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 27.67 +0.16 23.45 28 538K 2M 27
Current.
VOCL 07/10 Cup 5.8 +0.39 5.25 6.45 111K 125K 4.88
Current. Held the 10 day MVA and strated up, but volume was not there yet.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 26.88 -0.76 19.76 20 5.7M 8.5M 28
Current. Broke the 50 day on low volume. Giving it Tuesday to recover.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 15.64 -0.26 16.38 19.75 150K 250K 15.23
Buy Not Hit. Still a very nice pullback.
WMT 02/05 Put 55.96 -1.04 0 0 6.2M 8.2M 0
Reported sales running at the high end of the range for July, but fell back to the 18 day MVA on the news.
WWCA 05/22 BO 13.21 -0.34 11.42 13.85 462K 824K 12.42
Current. Very nice low volume test of the 10 day MVA. Still looks ready for the next move.
XING 07/02 Test BO 10.25 -1.55 11.2 13.55 3.3M 499K 11.94
Current. Struggling below the 18 day MVA. If it does not recover over that level Tuesday we will have to close it.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 31.05 +1.15 17.32 25 16M 20M 32.15
Current. Up off the 50 day MVA on rising, above average volume. A move over 32 on volume is the next buy point.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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