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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Monday: ACS; EVOL; PDLI; TSCO
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Downside:
Play Date: 07/21/2003
LSTR (Landstar System--$61.46; +0.26; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lstr.html
STATUS: Put. LSTR gapped through the 50 day MVA (62.77) Friday after another gap lower Thursday on earnings. That old earnings then downgrade 1-2 punch. After reaching down to 58.50 on the Thursday low LSTR rebounded. Monday it made another attempt at regaining the 50 day MVA, but it fell well short as volume dropped off to well below average. The candlestick chart showed a doji Monday below the 50 day, and that is what we look for as a stock makes a lower volume rebound from a serious breach of support.
Volume: 124.175K Avg Volume: 141.5K
BUY POINT: $60.95 Volume=200K Target=$57.75 Stop=$62.35
POSITION: QRY UL - Sept. $60p (-38 delta) or QRY UM - Sept. $65p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lstr.html
Upside:
Play Date: 07/21/2003
CELL (Brightpoint--$17.74; +2.37; no options): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. CELL is blasting out of a 4 month cup with handle base on a strong volume as a court dismissed all shareholder lawsuits. Accumulation in the base is a solid 5 to 2 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Earnings are out Monday July 28, but we really like the move ahead of the news. We will look at partial positions from here and then on any test of 16 that holds and rebounds.
Volume: 449.916K Avg Volume: 138.954K
BUY POINT: $17.88 Volume=225K Target=$21.45 Stop=$16.63
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
CONTINUING:
Downside:
Play Date: 07/17/2003
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$40.5; +0.33; optionable): Global positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
STATUS: Put. After breakign below the 50 day MVA at 42.50, GRMN is attempting a low volume bounce back up. Very low volume indicates few buyers as the stock moves back up. Looking for a rollover near 41.25 as it gives us the bounce before it comes back.
Volume: 242.362K Avg Volume: 775.818K
BUY POINT: Test 41 then 40.75 on the way back down. From here: $39.96 Volume=800K Target=$36.48 Stop=$41.75
POSITION: GQR TH - Aug. $40p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
WLP (Wellpoint Health--$81.69; 0; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wlp.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. WLP rallied back up to the 50 day MVA on the high (82.94) and then fell back, showing a tight doji on even lower, below average volume. This is exactly what the stock needed after dumping below the 50 day MVA last Wednesday. Well, wath it needed for the downside play.
Volume: 799.3K Avg Volume: 1.418M
BUY POINT: New: $81.44 (orig. $81.94). Volume=1.6M Target=$77.85 Stop=$83.15
POSITION: WLP UQ - Sept. $85p (66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wlp.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
TSCO announced a split and was up: a perennial winner.
LXK disappointed with earnings and was utterly destroyed with a gap down.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
BIO (Bio-rad Labs--$61.61; +0.61; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 7-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that BIO has ever announced a split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bio.html
STATUS: Flat base. Started with the breakout move Tuesday, but it was mostly pulling back off of the high. Late in the session it jumped back up, making the session look better. Not bad action with volume advancing and relative strength breaking out. On another strong trade move higher we will look to enter.
Volume: 236.4K Avg Volume: 195.181K
BUY POINT: New: $61.88 (orig. $61.35) Volume=288K Target=$73 Stop=$59.25
POSITION: BIO IL - Sept. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bio.html
Play Date: 07/10/2003
COH (Coach--$53.55; +0.9; optionable): High-end handbags and related items. Forecast to announce a split on 7-29-03 before the open in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-2-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $55.59. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-6-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Starting up off of the 18 day MVA (52.50) but volume was not there yet. It is doing what it should at this point, now we just look for volume. Money flow remains excellent as does relative strength.
Volume: 735K Avg Volume: 955.045K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $54.25; Next: $55.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$65 Stop=$51.66
POSITION: COH BK - Nov. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/01/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$26.7; +0.06; optionable): Coffee shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Volume started edging up as SBUX tapped the 10 day MVA on the low and started back up. Not enough volume, but looking better in the 3 week pullback from the early July breakout. Solid accumulation and money flow, and now it just needs to break higher on volume.
Volume: 3.19M Avg Volume: 4.134M
BUY POINT: New: $27.62 (orig. $26.30) Volume=6M Target=$30.94 Stop=$25.85
POSITION: SQX JE - Oct. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACS 07/19 Put 43 -0.9 42.4 39.48 2.4M 2M 45.05
Current. Managed some of a rebound, but selling on higher volume.
Took partial and will add to the position as it turns
back at 44 from another test.
ACV 07/19 BO 54.54 +0.04 54.65 65.65 317K 400K 52.75
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher, ran, but then spent most of the rest
of the session giving the move back.
AEOS 07/08 Cup hdl 20.46 -0.54 20.12 24.25 889K 1.9M 18.71
Buy Not Issued.
AET 07/17 Flat 63.5 +0.06 64.25 77.12 1.2M 2.8M 59.88
Buy Not Hit.
AMAT 07/12 Cup hdl 17.87 -0.31 18.05 22.55 18M 40M 17.24
Current.
AMEV 06/07 Test BO 4.36 +0.15 4.75 6 23K 102K 4.44
Current.
APOL 05/27 Test 50 61.98 -2.17 55.07 62 2.2M 2.7M 62.45
Exited. Unablel to retake the 18 day so exited with a trailing
stop. Will look at more at the 50 day MVA.
AVP 03/29 BO 63.38 -0.17 57.58 65.88 642K 1.7M 62.25
Current.
BCR 07/03 Test 50 68.57 -1.18 72.94 84 375K 600K 70.85
Buy Not Hit.
BDX 07/17 Put 37.45 +0.1 37.25 34.25 884K 900K 38.35
Buy Not Issued.
BEBE 07/01 Test BO 21.58 -0.44 20.9 24.95 177K 321K 21.24
Current.
BIO 07/19 Flat 61.61 +0.61 61.35 73 236K 288K 59.25
Buy Not Issued. Jumped up but not far, then backpeddled. It managed
a small rise toward the close, but the action was not
as powerful as we wanted on a selling session. Still
looks good but waiting for a breakaway move.
CECO 07/19 Test 18 74.32 -1.09 75.74 86.55 582K 1.2M 72.75
Current.
CECO 05/29 Test 50 74.32 -1.09 62.55 73.45 582K 1M 72.22
Current.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 17.74 +2.37 17.88 21.45 450K 225K 16.63
New.
CGFW 06/11 Cup hdl 8.89 -0.25 7.75 9.35 53K 120K 8.44
Current.
CHINA 06/21 Test BO 13.02 -0.38 7.95 9.55 22M 2.8M 11.78
Current.
CHMD 06/10 FlyPlat 11.45 -0.05 10.54 12.55 93K 155K 10.75
Current.
CHPC 06/28 Cup hdl 8.02 +0.01 8.45 10.75 905K 2.1M 8
Exited.
COCO 07/19 Test 50 52 -0.3 52.95 63.65 672K 1.2M 49.24
Buy Not Hit. Just paused Monday right at the breakout point.
COH 07/10 BO 53.55 +0.9 55.55 65 735K 1.4M 51.66
Buy Not Issued.
CUB 07/04 Cup hdl 23.84 -0.21 24.35 28.95 112K 206K 23.06
Buy Not Issued.
DSPG 07/19 A Wedge 24.4 +1.46 23.58 28.35 1.1M 536K 21.93
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher but kept backpeddling all session so
we decided to hold off and see if it tests further
then tries again.
DVA 05/17 Cup hdl 28.33 +0.06 25.11 30 374K 573K 26.98
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 111.06 +0.95 80.08 92 4.2M 8M 105.55
Current.
ERES 04/30 PreSplt 23.61 +0.74 15.08 17.58 1M 496K 23.65
Exited. Could not break back through the 18 day MVA so took
the rest of a nice gain.
ERES 01/30 Cup hdl 23.61 +0.74 15.08 17.58 1M 436K 23.65
Exited.
ETN 05/31 Cup hdl 81.87 -1.41 84.25 100 398K 650K 80.85
Buy Not Issued.
EVOL 06/09 Test 50 6.77 +0.47 4.45 5.48 481K 307K 5.45
Current.
FFIV 07/14 A Wedge 16.42 -0.74 18.96 23 256K 800K 17.55
Buy Not Hit.
GDW 05/01 Test BO 82.95 -0.85 83.6 95.88 767K 900K 81.88
Current.
GGNS 07/14 BO 3.41 +0.22 3.7 4.72 145K 250K 3.22
Current.
GLDN 07/12 Test BO 26.72 -0.08 28.05 33.75 83K 200K 26.09
Buy Not Issued.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 51.4 +0.18 41.75 48 854K 766K 47
Current.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 51.4 +0.18 26.5 30.75 854K 521K 47
Current.
GRMN 07/17 Put 40.5 +0.33 39.54 36.48 242K 800K 40.72
Buy Not Issued.
HB 06/16 Put 50.28 -0.46 49.95 46.95 92K 175K 50.78
Current.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 6.88 -0.36 7.22 8.95 140K 541K 6.68
Current.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 6.88 -0.36 6.7 8.38 140K 541K 6.68
Current.
IGLD 07/07 Cup 5.84 +0.02 5.88 7.15 132K 500K 5.95
Current.
IGT 06/18 PreSplt 26.12 +0.23 24.05 25.65 2.9M 1M 25.35
IMAN 07/16 Cup hdl 4.6 -0.39 5.38 6.88 228K 244K 5
Buy Not Hit.
INB 06/24 Cup hdl 8.6 +0.2 6.15 7.88 56K 80K 7.55
Current.
INTU 06/26 Put 40.42 -0.2 43.95 39.35 2.9M 6M 42
KROL 07/05 Cup hdl 28.05 +0.51 27.98 33.55 221K 700K 27.25
Current.
KROL 06/14 Test BO 28.05 +0.51 26.05 30.95 221K 716K 27.25
Current.
KRON 06/28 A Wedge 52.85 -1.2 51.5 60.25 114K 300K 54.75
Exited. Struggling below the 18 day MVA so exited with a trailing
stop.
KSWS 07/12 Test BO 37.64 +0.11 38.55 44.65 94K 307K 35.85
Buy Not Issued.
KSWS 04/21 FlyPlat 37.64 +0.11 30.66 35.75 94K 304K 36.94
LM 07/12 Test 18 69.85 -0.32 70.55 80 608K 700K 67.45
Buy Not Issued.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 69.85 -0.32 58.5 67.78 608K 610K 67
Current.
LSTR 07/21 Put 61.46 +0.26 60.95 57.75 124K 200K 62.35
New.
LXK 07/12 Flat 59.4 -14.1 77.55 90 15M 2M 74.45
Current.
MRGE 07/19 Test BO 15.85 -0.35 16.35 19.65 367K 239K 14
MRGE 04/24 Rv H&S 15.85 -0.35 8.06 10.45 367K 65K 14.38
Current.
ONXX 07/19 Test 18 15.51 +0.86 15.48 18.55 573K 495K 14.28
Current. Continued the move up off the 18 day MVA, and got some
solid volume along the way.
OPSW 07/15 Test BO 5.36 +0.07 5.95 7.25 330K 850K 5.53
Buy Not Hit.
PDLI 06/19 Put 13.51 -0.33 14.75 12.04 2.5M 2.5M 14.75
Current.
PIXR 07/05 Cup hdl 65.89 -1.07 62.8 71.75 327K 1.2M 65.94
Current.
PPE 07/12 Test BO 8.75 -0.03 9.28 12 868K 1.6M 8.82
Buy Not Hit.
PWAV 07/15 Test BO 7.01 -0.2 8.12 9.75 1M 2.1M 7.45
Buy Not Hit.
QDEL 07/02 A Wedge 6.5 +0.01 6.8 8.12 49K 125K 6.32
Current.
RCNC 07/09 Test BO 2.57 -0.19 2.58 3.05 552K 718K 2.42
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.7 +0.06 26.3 30.94 3.2M 6M 25.85
Current.
SJM 07/07 Cup hdl 39.68 -0.62 42.12 50.55 130K 316K 40.05
Buy Not Hit.
SLM 06/24 Test 18 41.31 +0.23 42.88 49.25 1.4M 3.5M 41
Buy Not Hit.
SOHU 06/21 Test 50 40.61 -0.29 28.5 35 4.5M 2.5M 32.48
Current.
SSTI 07/08 Cup hdl 4.99 -0.01 5.22 6.72 830K 1.4M 4.98
Current.
TPC 06/17 Test BO 5.52 0 5.95 7.55 62K 466K 5.45
Buy Not Issued.
TSCM 07/17 Rv H&S 5.18 -0.22 5.82 7.55 87K 210K 5.38
New.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 51.01 +1.49 51.25 60 285K 500K 48.12
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 51.01 +1.49 46.85 55.25 285K 603K 48
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 51.01 +1.49 43.75 52 285K 603K 48
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 51.01 +1.49 38.6 44.38 285K 577K 48
Current.
UCBH 03/24 Cup 29.6 -0.12 22.03 24.75 330K 200K 29.45
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 27.67 +0.16 28.8 34.12 538K 2.1M 26.78
Current.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 27.67 +0.16 23.45 28 538K 2M 27
Current.
UOPX 10/10 Rv H&S 53.69 -1.61 48.6 58 324K 350K 52.55
Current.
VSEA 07/12 Test BO 33.09 -0.94 34.5 40.95 942K 1.4M 32.08
Current.
WLP 07/19 Put 81.69 0 81.94 77.85 799K 1.6M 83.15
Current. Nice doji that tested the 50 day MVA on the high and
fell back. Very nice action.
WSH 07/12 Put 28.17 -0.25 28.65 26 695K 1.4M 29.85
Current.
WWCA 05/22 BO 13.21 -0.34 11.42 13.85 462K 824K 12.42
Current.
XING 07/02 Test BO 19.75 -0.28 11.2 13.55 3.3M 499K 11.94
Current.
XMSR 07/16 Cup hdl 12.5 +0.01 14.25 17.25 3.7M 11M 13.12
Buy Not Hit.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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