stock split, stock research

Begin Part 2 of 4

CEC (CEC Entertainment--$53.08; +1.45; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 5-22-01 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cec.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 6-24-99 at a stock price of $40.
STATUS: Reached up to a new high of 54.50 intraday but pulled back to close. The strong pullback is not a great sign, but we will see if it can hold on at these levels going into next week's split and continue the move. Volume was very strong at 415,800 (average 215,800). The late-April closing high was at 52.50, so upon holding that level with lower volume selling, or on a continued strong volume move up from here, we can look at positions going into the split. This is the second surge back up after a test of the stock's strong gap-up breakout in mid-April.
BUY POINT: From here A move up from here on continued strong volume. Pullback A move back up on strong volume after a lower-volume dip that holds the 52.50 range.
POSITION: Earnings play. Both buy points Stock and/or June and September $50 calls to buy (CEC FJ and CEC IJ low open interest for both options, however).

FDC (First Data--$68.21; +0.21; optionable): Working on a forecast date. Earnings were announced on 4-12-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2 for 1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FDC launched back up Wednesday after having to come back again to test the breakout from its saucer pattern. The stock rested Thursday, showing a doji but on lower volume of 1.32 million (average 1.82 million). We will see if it can hold here, right over the level of its initial breakout high, looking for a further move up with above average volume. Good relative strength although just below its April highs, and money flow is improving.
BUY POINT: After holding here, a move back up on above average volume (1.82 million; today 1.32 million).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (FDC HM).

BMET (Biomet--$44.19; +0.15; optionable): Medical equipment. Working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-6-00 at a stock price of $29. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-16-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: BMET has really charged back after a disappointing drop from its breakout from an ascending wedge. After two very strong moves, the stock slowed with a doji today, with volume easing back too at 2.26 million (average 1.76 million). Looking for it to hold over the former high of 43.68, (tapped 43.55 at the low today), moving back up from there on continued strong volume.
BUY POINT: A move up on continued strong volume after holding support over its prior high.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (BIQ GH).

LOW (Lowe's--$67.70; +1.95): Forecast to announce a split on 5-21-01 before the open in conjunction with earnings, or more probably on 5-25-01 at its annual shareholder meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 5-29-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $75. Prior to that announced a split on 3-4-94 at a stock price for $64. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-25-01 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: LOW broke out on good volume Wednesday, but volume has decreased as the stock has continued its breakout move. Today was a sizable run, but volume dipped sharply to 2.11 million (average 3.35 million). We will see if it can hold the breakout point at 65 on a test, looking for continued weak volume on the pullback. We can look at positions before the close Friday if it holds support. Strong relative strength, money flow and buying.
BUY POINT: Going into the split, on a hold of support after a lower volume drop.
POSITION: Earnings Play. Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (LOW GL).

PRE-SPLIT BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $3 moves running into the split. Not huge money, but it can be very steady.
1) STT - A nice move but at resistance
2) DGX - Broke out.
3) IVX - Splitting Monday
4) PKI - Broke out
5) BAX - Broke out

STT (State Street--$111.75; +0.75; optionable): Banking. Splits 2:1 effective 5-31-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Made the move we were looking for Wednesday, blasting up out of crouching positions in its pennant-type handle. The stock broke out of the handle, but today could not hold a move over its 200 day MVA (112.19). Volume has been somewhat weak (752,500; average 1.04 million), especially for a breakout, but as a pre-split we look for stocks to move with a lot of momentum that is not necessarily dependent on heavy volume. From here we will need to see a strong break over the 200 day for more positions, and could see a test of the breakout back at 109 before it mounts another move. Protect profits with comfortable stops.
PLAY: Aggressive A move over the 200 day MVA on increased volume, with stock and/or June $110 calls to buy (STT FB). Pullback A move up after a lighter-volume pullback that holds the 109 level, with stock and/or June $105 calls to buy (STT FA).

DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$128.26; +2.26; optionable): Health services. Splits 2:1 effective June 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: A fantastic move Wednesday, and the momentum spilled into Thursday as the stock tested its 10 day MVA at its low of 119.25 before running back up hard. Volume was slightly down but very strong, coming in at 573,700 (average 344,200). We could get more from here on this breakout move (from a handle to a cup that dates back to the beginning of the year), otherwise we will look for the stock to hold the former handle high this time on a drop (at 125.50).
PLAY: From here A move up on continued strong volume, with stock and/or June $125 calls to buy (DGX FE under 100 open interest). Test of breakout A move back up after testing 125.50, with stock and/or June $120 calls to buy (DGX FD).

IVX (Ivax--$35.90; -0.40; optionable): Generic drugs. Splits 5:4 on May 21.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivx.html
STATUS: The stock broke from a cup pattern in late April, making a rather abrupt climb up the right side of that base, but pulled back early this month in a ragged handle. It is now holding precariously between its 10 day and 18 day MVA (36.27 and 35.86, respectively). One session to go before the split, so we will see if it can make a move Friday.
PLAY: Aggressive A move back over its 10 day MVA, with stock and/or June $30 calls to buy (IVX FF).

PKI (Perkinelmer--$70.12; +3.61; optionable): Technical Services. Splits 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
STATUS: Broke out from its little pennant pattern today, continuing its three-session move up from the 18 day MVA (63.86), which has defined the bottom of the pattern. Volume slipped a bit today was still above average at 719,300 (average 673,600). We could get some more out of this move, and it is right at some resistance from late-February-early March lows. We are looking at a possible target on a continued strong move at 74-76, watching the volatility as we move closer to the split.
PLAY: A continued move up on strong volume, with stock and/or June $65 calls to buy (PKI FM).

BAX (Baxter International--$97.22; +1.82; optionable): Health Services. Splits 2:1 effective 5-31-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: Another strong move today as the stock broke out from its ascending wedge. Volume was huge on Wednesday's move up that tapped up at the breakout point, and today it was down although it remained strong at 1.89 million). Still a buy at this point on a strong move up, but we will see if it has a mind to test back to the breakout point of 96 before continuing up.
PLAY: A move up on continued strong volume, with stock and/or July $95 calls to buy (BAX FS). If we get a lower-volume pullback that holds 96, a strong move back up from there, with stock and/or July $90 calls to buy (BAX FR).

CONTINUING CANDIDATE BEST PLAYS: Saucer sightings!!
1) KMP - Banging on the door
2) ASFC - Good handle to the saucer
3) RJR - Trying to breakout of its own saucer.

KMP (Kinder Morgan--$72.11; +1.11):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that KMP has ever split its stock. KMP is a master limited partnership and therefore does not have annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: After testing the breakout of its saucer pattern, the stock has moved back up and pulled laterally the last few sessions. Looking good, holding its 10 day MVA (70.95) as it moves on volume that is decreasing from the huge spike we saw on Tuesday (196,400 today; average 124,100). Still showing good relative strength, money flow and buying. We are looking for a strong break out of the pattern.
BUY POINT: Breakout Over 72.70 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Breakout Stock and/or September $70 calls (KMP FN).

ASFC (Astoria Financial--$57.23; -0.30; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split. The next annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-16-01 at 9:30 ET.
STATUS: Has pulled back to test the breakout from a saucer pattern, and is trying to hold the high in the left side of the pattern, at 57 (with the 18 day MVA). Today's pattern was a doji, as volume continued to be above average, which is a positive change from the rather weak volume we saw on the breakout. Looking for spring upward, with the recent high at 58.50.
BUY POINT: Breakout Over 58.50 on increased volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (AQR GK).

RJR (RJ Reynolds--$59.50; -0.80; optionable): Tobacco.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rjr.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that RJR has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 4-25-01 at 9:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has fallen back after having made a nice breakout move from a saucer with handle pattern. It has held support at its 18 day MVA (58.90), tapping at its recent low the highs from the bottom of the saucer, at 58. Holding on its encouraging, so we will see if RJR can make a strong move back toward its breakout high of 62.70.
BUY POINT: Aggressive A move back over 61 on above average volume (428,600; today 328,100).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (RJR HK).

POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS:
1) BRCD - A bit of a rest
2) MKT - A doji on the test of the breakout

BRCD (Brocade--$45.36; -1.85; optionable (UBF): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: BRCD made a nice move in Wednesday's rally, and today relaxed a bit. The stock showed a loose doji as volume remained above average (17.5 million; average 15.2 million). This could be just a rest as the stock moves back up from its 50 day MVA (40.25) after a gradual pullback from the recent high of 50.75 (a handle, although low in the pattern, to BRCD's forming base). Looking for the stock to continue up in a good market. On a pullback, we will see if it can hold the 10 day MVA (43.21). On a strong move in a good market, we are looking at a target of $50, then $56.
BUY POINT: From here A move up on continued strong volume in a good market, with stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (UBF GH). Pullback A move up after a lower volume drop back that holds the 10 day MVA, with stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (UBF GH).

MKT (Advanced Marketing--$18.00; +0.05; no options): Basic Materials. Split 2:1 effective 5-14-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mkt.html
STATUS: Made a great run going into the split on a breakout from a nice, tight pennant pattern. The stock hit a breakout high of 19.36, and has now pulled back and held support at the 10 day MVA, with consecutive dojis, today of a tight variety. Volume has dipped to 49,000 (average 45,500), and we will see if the stock will give us a pop back up from the doji on support. Post-split moves can be tough, but it broke from a solid pattern.
PLAY: A move back up on increased volume, with stock.
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PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS
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NVDA (Nvidia--$87.00; +1.51; optionable): Semiconductor. Forecast to announce a split May 22 after the close with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
BACKGROUND: The company last announced 5-16-00 after the close with earnings. Price was at $94, but the stock rose $8.74 that day in anticipation.
STATUS: NVDA has tried to battle back, but the move back up has been weak. It reached a new high on breaking from a large cup in early May, but fell back hard. The current move has taken it back over the 10 day MVA (83.72), but it continued on low volume as the stock showed a doji today (volume 3.83 million; average 5 million). We will see if it can hold here, and if it can we can look at positions on a move up going into the forecast next Tuesday.
BUY POINT: Aggressive After holding the 10 day MVA, a move back up on stronger volume.
POSITION: Earnings play. Stock and/or June and September $80 calls to buy (RVU FP and RVU HP).

ADVP (Advancepcs--$64.61; +3.03; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-7-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ADVP broke to a new high again. The stock broke out from an ascending wedge in March and formed a flat base over that pattern, and after breaking from that pattern has continued to hold in another flat base. Problem is, volume has been consistently below average not just in the daily pattern moves but in the breaks to new highs, like today (690,600; average 877,300). The low volume is a recipe for a pullback, so we will see if it can continue to hold in the 64 range, looking finally for some volume to come into the picture and support the move.
BUY POINT: A move up from here or after a light-volume pullback that holds 63-64, looking for above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $60 calls to buy (QVD FL).

End Part 2 of 4

stock split
stock research