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stock split, stock research
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Tuesday: ACV; AMAT; CELL; CHMD; DSPG; EVOL; GPRO; TSCO; VSEA
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 07/22/2003
LSI (LSI Logic--$8.4; +0.51; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LSI is starting up off the bottom of the handle to a 8 month base sporting excellent 12 to 3 accumulation (12 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flwo as well and relative strength is ready for a breakout as well. Despite the SOX failing its last breakout attempt we see chip stocks forming good patterns and breaking higher (e.g., AMAT, VSEA). LSI is one that is just now coming off the bottom of its long downtrend with its first base. If it can provide a breakout we are looking to get on board.
Volume: 3.565M Avg Volume: 4.816M
BUY POINT: $9.08 Volume=7.2M Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.44
POSITION: LSI JU - Oct. $7.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lsi.html
Play Date: 07/22/2003
MXO (Maxtor--$9.32; +0.5; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. You can call MXO by a few different patterns, a 1.5 year reverse head and shoulders or a 6 month cup with handle base. Either way you look at it the pattern is solid. Since January when it formed a very flat cup with handle, accumulation has been outstanding at 8 to 2. It broke out in late June, rallied to 9.90, and has come back to test the 18 day MVA (8.72), a typical pullback level on breakouts before the next leg starts. Tuesday MXO started bouncing off that level on rising though still below average volume. Money flow is strong and relative strength is ready to breakout again. A very solid performer and a very cleam pattern.
Volume: 2.72M Avg Volume: 3.087M
BUY POINT: $9.78 Volume=4.6M Target=$11.85 Stop=$9.11
POSITION: MXO JU - Oct. $7.50c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mxo.html
Play Date: 07/22/2003
MYK (Mykrolis--$12.65; +0.3; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/myk.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MYK broke out of a 6 month base in late May and has rallied up to just over 13 on the high. The base built a great foundation for the move with solid 7 to 4 accumulation. Great money flow helped propel the stock higher and it is still leading. Relative strength broke out on the move. It is now testing the 10 day MVA (12.42), holding that level and starting back up on rising though still below average volume. Outstanding performance and it looks ready for more.
Volume: 238.5K Avg Volume: 241.727K
BUY POINT: $13.64 Volume=363K Target=$16.45 Stop=$12.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/myk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/22/2003
CSC (Computer Sciences--$37.1; -0.73; optionable): Information technology software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csc.html
STATUS: Put. CSC tested the 50 day MVA (38.18) Monday on low volume, then broke down Tuesday on a large volume spike. The move took CSC through the 50 day as well as support at 38. It has pretty much clear sailing down to 34. May try a test of 38 before falling further, but we are willing to take some positions on a further fall and then again after a test of the breach of 38.
Volume: 3.39M Avg Volume: 1.564M
BUY POINT: $36.96 Volume=2M Target=$34 Stop=$38.25
POSITION: CSC UH - Sept. $40p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/csc.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 06/11/2003
CGFW (Cyberguard--$9.08; +0.19; no options): PC networking hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cgfw.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CGFW is still working on the breakout test, holding the 10 day MVA on the low again on Tuesday (8.70) and bouncing back. Volume rallied on the move, rising but still below average. Relative strength is solid, showing CGFW's outperformance of the market. Money flow has started to surge higher ahead of the stock as it moves laterally. Excellent accumulation to go along with the pattern. Still looking for another move to add to positions.
Volume: 104.7K Avg Volume: 122.636K
BUY POINT: $9.22 (orig. $7.75) Volume=120K Target=$11.12 Stop=$8.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cgfw.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$34.96; +1.87; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Tested the 18 day MVA (32.90) Monday on the low and Tuesday was bouncing on stronger, above average volume. VSEA broke out of a 7 month base in early July on some excellent volume. After a brief selling bout last week it is ready for more. Relative strength and money flow are excellent, and accumulation is very strong at 10 to 4. Ready for more.
Volume: 1.345M Avg Volume: 949.681K
BUY POINT: New: $35.25 (orig. $34.55) Volume=1.4M Target=$40.95 Stop=$32.08
POSITION: UES KG - Nov. $35c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vsea.html
Play Date: 05/22/2003
WWCA (Western Wireless--$14.08; +0.87; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A big move off the 10 day MVA (13.20) on some rising, above average volume. After the test of the nice rally higher, WWCA is ready for more.
Volume: 1.683M Avg Volume: 1.249M
BUY POINT: New: $14.12 (orig. $11.42) Volume=824K Target=New positions: $17 (orig. positions $13.85) Stop=$12.42
POSITION: WRQ HU - Aug. $7.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wwca.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$43.87; +0.87; optionable): Computer ITS
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: Descending triangle. ACS is continuing its downtrend, falling Monday on a strong volume surge and giving a weaker, low volume bounce higher Tuesday. The stock broke down from a descending triangle Monday, and has been moving down its short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA) for the past month. Tuesday it rebounded to make a small test of the Monday selling. That is typical action in stocks working in a trend. Looking for a turn back down near 44. When it rolls over it is a new buy.
Volume: 1.007M Avg Volume: 1.926M
BUY POINT: New: Test 44 then 43.65 on the way back down (orig. $42.40) Volume=2M Target=$40 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: ACS UI - Sept. $45p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acs.html
Play Date: 07/17/2003
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$41.08; +0.58; optionable): Global positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
STATUS: Put. GRMN is making the low volume bounce up to test the 18 day MVA, tapping that level on the Tuesday high (41.50). This comes after the failed test of the 50 day MVA, falling on strong volume last Thursday. This the test we said it may try, and now it is doing that just that and is ready to turn back down.
Volume: 249.887K Avg Volume: 774.727K
BUY POINT: $39.54 Volume=800K Target=$36.48 Stop=$40.72
POSITION: GQR TH - Aug. $40p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 07/21/2003
LSTR (Landstar System--$62.24; +0.78; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lstr.html
STATUS: Put. Broke down Friday, gapping through the 50 day MVA on big volume. It has rallied back to test the 50 day MVA on the Tuesday high (62.36) as volume has trailed off to well below average levels. It has made the lower volume test of the breach, and now we are looking for the turn back down.
Volume: 100.7K Avg Volume: 140.363K
BUY POINT: $61.75 Volume=200K Target=$57.75 Stop=$62.35
POSITION: QRY UL - Sept. $60p (-38 delta) or QRY UM - Sept. $65p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lstr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
TSCO announced Monday and has rallied quite nicely!
CECO announced after the close and was up over $5 in after hours trade!
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Exited with a trailing stop Monday and gapped down to the 50 day MVA Tuesday, but should perform better with the CECO earnings.
AVP: Forecast 7-23-03 before the open with earnings.
BCR: No split announced with earnings. Still at the 50 day MVA.
BIO: Forecast 7-28 before the open.
CECO: Forecast 7-22 with earnings. Did the deed with huge earnings to boot. A huge mover Wednesday.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings. Selling down to the 50 day MVA on rising volume.
COH: Forecast 7-29 before the open with earnings.
EBAY: Forecast 7-24 after the close.
ETN: No split announced with earnings. Still working on the move higher but again, it needs to break 84 on volume.
FDO: No announcement with 6-25-03 earnings. Still at the 50 day MVA, but volume is swelling as it holds.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings, but still solid.
HAR: Forecast 7-30 in conjunction with earnings. Back over the 18 day MVA. Will see if it forms up better.
KRON: Forecast 7-24-03 in conjunction with earnings.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings.
LXK: No announcement with earnings 7-21 and was drilled. Nice comeback (so to speak) Tuesday, but still below the 200 day MVA. If it fails there we close it.
MME: Forecast in early 8-6 with earnings (company has not confirmed whether before or after). Holding below the 18 day MVA.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16. Still working higher on above average volume.
TBL: Announced earnings Friday. Revenues were a hair light and the stock was whacked. Still diving lower.
TSCO: No announce with earnings on 7-14. Announced the split a week later and has given another solid move.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/29/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$63.7; +0.32; optionable): Makeup. Forecast to announce a split 7-23-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-22-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-1-03 at 10:00 ET at which time no additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Still testing intraday toward support at 62 and rebounding. Tuesday it rallied back on rising volume ahead of earnings. Earnings are out before the open Tuesday and we are looking for a split announcement. On a breakout on the news we will look to enter new positions.
Volume: 1.042M Avg Volume: 1.256M
BUY POINT: New: 64.55 (orig. $57.58) Volume=1.7M Target=New positions: 74.25 (orig. positions: $65.88) Stop=$62.25
POSITION: AVP JL - Oct. $60c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
BIO (Bio-rad Labs--$61.15; -0.46; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 7-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that BIO has ever announced a split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bio.html
STATUS: Flat base. Working through the current 2 month flat base, consolidating the breakout from a prior 5 month base on mostly lower, below average volume. Accumulation in that first base was solid at 7 to 5. Money flow is excellent as is relative strength. Monday BIO tried the breakout but Tuesday could not muster the move. Still solid and looking for the break higher.
Volume: 149.6K Avg Volume: 198.409K
BUY POINT: $61.35 Volume=288K Target=$73 Stop=$59.25
POSITION: BIO IL - Sept. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bio.html
Play Date: 05/29/2003
CECO (Career Education--$72.97; -1.34; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 7-22-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-31-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-11-02 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Tested the 18 day MVA on the Tuesday close as volume rose above average. After hours CECO came through with the split announcement and huge earnings. It was racing higher after hours (+$5). Looking for a big day tomorrow with our current positions. Given the gap higher to come, we will most likely let it cool off before we look at the stock again, looking at the next entry point on a test of the move.
Volume: 1.313M Avg Volume: 804.318K
BUY POINT: $75.74 Volume=1.2M Target=$86.55 Stop=$72.75
POSITION: CUY JO - Oct. $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 07/10/2003
COH (Coach--$53.83; +0.28; optionable): High-end handbags and related items. Forecast to announce a split on 7-29-03 before the open in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-2-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $55.59. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-6-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Retail is still solid and COH continues a low, below average volume test of support at 52.50. Tuesday it was up but volume was not and it closed basically flat. Still solid and still looking for the breakout from this market leader. Money flow remains excellent as does relative strength.
Volume: 557.9K Avg Volume: 952.59K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $54.25; Next: $55.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$65 Stop=$51.66
POSITION: COH BK - Nov. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 03/08/2003
EBAY (Ebay--$111.17; +0.11; optionable): Internet auctions, sales. Forecast to announce a split July 24 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: EBAY announced a 3:1 stock split 1-26-99 and then a 2:1 stock split in April 2000 at a stock price of $140.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. EBAY is testing the strong move higher, pulling back to the 18 day MVA (110) on the lows and bouncing back. Volume has dropped back below average on the test even as money flow and relative strength remain very strong. After hours EBAY was rising on the strong AMZN earnings. This may be the news that breaks EBAY higher ahead of earnings. At this stage the positions are more aggressive as EBAY moves up ahead of earnings.
Volume: 4.881M Avg Volume: 6.427M
BUY POINT: New: 111.65 but need to see the volume (orig. 100.25 ; 95.65; 87.25; $80.08) Volume=8M Target=$115 Stop=$105.55
POSITION: QXB JB - Oct. $110c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 06/28/2003
KRON (Kronos--$53.23; +0.38; optionable): Employee efficiency systems. Forecast to announce a split on 7-24-03 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-25-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $41. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kron.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. KRON fell back to the 18 day MVA and support at 52.50, holding steady at that level. We took gains earlier, but are still interested in the play ahead of earnings. KRON ran up earlier ahead of earnings and then sold back. It is now ready to make a move back up into earnings. If it gives the move we will move back in.
Volume: 157.563K Avg Volume: 196.272K
BUY POINT: New: Aggressive: $55.25; Next: 57.78 (orig. $51.50) Volume=300K Target=New positions: $66.45; orig. positions: $60.25 Stop=$54.75
POSITION: KUE JK - Oct. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kron.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
LM (Legg Mason--$70.01; +0.16; optionable): Investment brokerage
BACKGROUND: LM last announced a 2:1 split in July 1998 at a price of $62.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A very nice lateral consolidation of the move, tapping the 18 day MVA on the low (68.85) and showing a series of dojis as it moves in a tight range. Volume has surged above average the past two sessions. It looks ready for the next leg higher on as money flow and relative strength remain strong.
Volume: 562.3K Avg Volume: 471.227K
BUY POINT: $70.55 Volume=700K Target=$80 Stop=$67.45
POSITION: LM KN - Nov. $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lm.html
Play Date: 10/10/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$53.94; +0.25; optionable): Online education. Researching the next date as UOPX did not announce with 6-23-03 earnings. Still looking good, however, so staying with it.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Very nice 18 day MVA test, testing below that level on the low and rallying back. With the strong CECO earnings we anticipate that UOPX will rally a well.
Volume: 238.683K Avg Volume: 230.909K
BUY POINT: New: $55.06 (orig. $48.60) Volume=350K Target=New position: $67 (orig. positions $58) Stop=$52.55
POSITION: UBY LK - Dec. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/04/2003
CUB (Cubic Corp.--$24.5; +0.66; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cub.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CUB continues to improve, and after a two week lateral move on lower, below average volume, CUB started higher Tuesday on rising, above average volume. It finally looks ready to take advantage of the great 7 month base showing solid accumulation, outstanding money flow, and excellent relative strength. On a further move it is a buy.
Volume: 205.4K Avg Volume: 134.954K
BUY POINT: New: $24.65 (orig. $24.35) Volume=206K Target=$28.95 Stop=$23.06
POSITION: CUB JX - Oct. $22.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cub.html
Play Date: 06/24/2003
SLM (SLM Corp.--$42.15; +0.84; optionable): Student loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. SLM is working in a very nice triangle using the 50 day MVA (40.15) as the low. It is massing for a breakout over resistance at 42. Money flow is surging up ahead of the price, and SLM was jumping higher Tuesday on much stronger volume. Looking for a breakout on above average volume.
Volume: 2.484M Avg Volume: 2.618M
BUY POINT: $42.88 Volume=3.5M Target=$49.25 Stop=$41
POSITION: SLM JH - Oct. $40c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slm.html
Play Date: 07/01/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$26.89; +0.19; optionable): Coffee shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still the same with the 3 week pullback from the early July breakout forming a handle on a 10 week cup base. Tuesday volume was higher as SBUX tried the next breakout but gave back most of the move. Solid accumulation and money flow on this very orderly test. We look for a strong jump back up on volume to enter new positions.
Volume: 3.764M Avg Volume: 4.097M
BUY POINT: New: $27.62 (orig. $26.30) Volume=6M Target=$30.94 Stop=$25.85
POSITION: SQX JE - Oct. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
End part 2 of 3
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stock split
stock research
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