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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Tuesday: KLAC; MKSI; ONNN; STST; TSCO; TZIX
Monday play results:
FLS: Rallied up to test the 50 day MVA breach.
TZIX: Exploded higher on volume.
FLSH: Edging closer to the next break higher.
MERX: Still a nice handle.
New Plays for Wednesday:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/22/2003
CRAY (Cray, Inc.--$9.36; +0.09; optionable): High performance computer systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cray.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. We have bene watching CRAY, and now it looks ready for the breakout. It moved through a 4 month ascending triangle and broke higher on a nice volume surge in early July. That base showed very nice 7 to 3 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). The past three weeks it has moved laterally in a flying plateau where it moves laterally on low volume as the 10 day MVA (9.09) rises up to meet the price. That typically sets off the next upleg. Indeed, Tuesday CRAY tried to make the breakout, rallyin go 9.65 on a strong volume surge. Great pattern and looking for a strong breakout that holds to the close.
Volume: 1.883M Avg Volume: 942.545K
BUY POINT: $9.78 Volume=1.4M Target=$11.75 Stop=$9.11
POSITION: HQC LB - Dec. $10c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cray.html
Play Date: 07/22/2003
UBET (Youbet.com--$3.63; +0.03; no options): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ubet.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. UBET is working on the handle to a 3 month base sporting excellent 6 to 2 accumulation and super money flow. UBET tried to make the breakout last Wednesday and Thursday, but came back as the amrket was not ready to make the move. The past three session it has moved laterally, holding in a tight range over support at 3.50 on very low, below average volume. Tuesday it showed a nice, tight doji. Looking for a break higher from here but we want to see the volume come back in.
Volume: 265.376K Avg Volume: 613.409K
BUY POINT: $4.12 Volume=920K Target=$5.15 Stop=$3.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ubet.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/22/2003
MYL (Mylan Labs--$31.1; -0.6; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/myl.html
STATUS: Put. MYL double topped in late June and early July and rolled over. It has steadily slid lower, tried to hold the 50 day MVA (32) last week, but then broke through Tuesday on a big volume surge. Money flow has turned lower and is tanking ahead of the stock. It may try to test the breach with a bounce back up to 32, but it has plenty of downside momentum and we are willing to take positions on a move lower from here.
Volume: 1.77M Avg Volume: 1.418M
BUY POINT: $30.96 Volume=1.5M Target=$28 Stop=$32.05
POSITION: MYL UZ - Sept. $32.50p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/myl.html
Continuing plays:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
VVTV (Valuevision Media--$16; +0.36; optionable): Catalong and mail order retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vvtv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After the great surge last week, VVTV has come back to test the 10 day MVA (15.50). From there it rebounded Tuesday on some rising, average volume. Looks ready to make the break higher. Super relative strength, and accumulation and money are excellent.
Volume: 171.33K Avg Volume: 145.318K
BUY POINT: $16.38 Volume=250K Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.23
POSITION: UVR IC - Sept. $15c (71 delta) or UVR LC - Dec. $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vvtv.html
Play Date: 07/01/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$26.89; +0.19; optionable): Coffee shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still the same with the 3 week pullback from the early July breakout forming a handle on a 10 week cup base. Tuesday volume was higher as SBUX tried the next breakout but gave back most of the move. Solid accumulation and money flow on this very orderly test. We look for a strong jump back up on volume to enter new positions.
Volume: 3.764M Avg Volume: 4.097M
BUY POINT: New: $27.62 (orig. $26.30) Volume=6M Target=$30.94 Stop=$25.85
POSITION: SQX JE - Oct. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/sbux.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO:
AMZN 05/03 BO 34.87 -0.46 30.3 35.45 16M 12M 37.45
Current. Managed to hold the 50 day MVA after testing below that level. Reported huge earnings after hours and was up as much as $2. Solid.
WMT 02/05 Put 56.9 +0.94 0 0 6.5M 8.2M 0
Up off the 18 day MVA on some rising volume. Needs to get over 58.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: GRMN; IACI; MERX; RATE; MU
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADRX 07/19 Put 19.21 -0.2 18.62 16 759K 1.8M 19.95
Buy Not Issued.
AMZN 05/03 BO 34.87 -0.46 30.3 35.45 16M 12M 37.45
Current. Managed to hold the 50 day MVA after testing below that level. Reported huge earnings after hours and was up as much as $2. Solid.
ASPM 06/30 FlyPlat 8.18 0 8.33 10 49K 115K 7.72
Buy Not Issued.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 6.45 0 6.5 8.25 254K 500K 6.25
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on a low volume pullback.
ATSI 06/19 Cup hdl 4.21 -0.01 3.95 4.75 86K 225K 3.98
Current. Lateral move over the 10 day MVA. Needs a breakout over 4.50.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 10.68 +0.06 9.7 11.88 2M 2.4M 9.74
Current. Lateral move over the 18 day MVA, consolidating.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 17.93 +0.18 19.06 22.88 77K 376K 17.73
Buy Not Hit.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 45.45 +0.5 41.25 48.55 12M 23M 44.62
Current. A common theme, moving laterally over the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
CBIZ 06/24 Cup hdl 3.36 -0.03 3.33 4.45 174K 212K 3.12
Buy Not Issued.
CHGO 06/14 Test BO 11.26 +0.01 10.08 12.05 108K 140K 11
Current. Same as C, moving laterally on below average volume.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 9.36 +0.09 9.78 11.75 1.9M 1.4M 9.11
New.
CSTL 07/09 Cup hdl 4.07 +0.11 4.2 5.2 43K 200K 3.94
Current. Up off the 18 day MVA but no volume.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 37.95 +0.55 23.81 28.42 185K 225K 35.94
Current. Working laterally over the 18 day MVA on very low, below average volume.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 37.95 +0.55 22.75 27.35 185K 225K 35.94
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 111.17 +0.11 69.45 92 4.9M 12M 105.55
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA, but was up well after hours on the AMZN news.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 111.17 +0.11 62.45 92 4.9M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 1.95 +0.03 1.88 2.45 88K 210K 1.78
Current. Rising up again but needs to clear 2.
FCN 06/19 Put 26.1 +1.03 25.44 23 699K 1M 24.55
Current. Up over the 50 day MVA on below average volume but risign nonetheless.
FLS 07/21 Put 18.26 +1.16 17.25 14.45 1M 525K 18.45
Buy Not Issued. Surged back up to the 50 day MVA after the breach Monday.
Volume was lower but still above average. Will let
it make the test & see if it rolls back over.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 12.86 +0.12 10.55 12.75 130K 195K 12.45
Current. Moving laterally over the 18 day MVA on low volume. The market is getting ready to move higher based on all of the stocks holding the 18 day.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 12.86 +0.12 9.2 10.96 130K 195K 12.45
Current.
GRMN 07/17 Put 41.08 +0.58 39.54 36.48 250K 800K 40.72
Buy Not Issued. Ready to make the fall after the low volume test.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 7.08 +0.2 7.22 8.95 142K 541K 6.68
Current. Gapped lower but rallied back. Still low volume.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 7.08 +0.2 6.7 8.38 142K 541K 6.68
Current.
IACI 07/13 Test BO 38.46 +0.13 42.28 48.85 7.5M 12M 39.32
Current. Still at the 50 day MVA as volume started higher.
IACI 03/25 Cup hdl 38.46 +0.13 29.12 33.55 7.5M 8.3M 39
Current.
IBM 06/14 Put 81.85 -0.65 0 0 8.7M 0 0
Buy Not Issued.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 39.1 +4.7 0 0 4M 375K 36
Big gap higher over the 200 day MVA on strong volume.
ILXO 07/19 Cup hdl 18.6 +0.17 21.75 26.12 152K 601K 19.96
Buy Not Hit. Testing the 50 day MVA with a doji.
KFY 06/28 Cup hdl 9.22 +0.12 9.05 10.95 141K 130K 8.88
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA as volume starts to rise.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 52.3 +2.64 52.25 60 15M 14M 49.85
Current. Delivered an excellent volume break higher.
LIOX 07/16 Test 18 6.67 -0.12 6.58 8.05 772K 400K 5.92
Current. Gapped higher but settled back after the big break higher Monday.
LPSN 07/07 BO 2.03 +0.15 2.22 2.95 79K 320K 1.94
Current. Trying to mount a move from the 18 day.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 9.61 +0.19 10.26 12.45 190K 248K 9.54
Buy Not Hit. Still very solid in the handle.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 22.85 +2.02 22.25 27.95 506K 488K 20.96
Current. Excellent volume jump off the 18 day MVA as we anticpated.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 22.85 +2.02 22.8 27.95 506K 488K 21.12
Current.
MU 07/19 Cup hdl 14.3 +0.29 14.85 17.85 10M 16M 13.74
Buy Not Hit. Looks very good.
MYL 07/22 Put 31.1 -0.6 30.96 28 1.8M 1.5M 32.05
New.
NWRE 07/12 Test BO 17.6 -0.26 18.48 22.25 431K 900K 17.19
Buy Not Issued.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.34 +0.15 3 3.75 224K 900K 3
Current. Nice move back up.
PDLI 06/19 Put 14.32 +0.81 14.75 12.04 2.5M 2.5M 14.75
Current. Back up over the 50 day MVA as PDLI cannot make the move lower. If it does not fail we will close it.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.78 -0.09 2.9 3.75 93K 150K 2.68
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA.
RATE 07/15 FlyPlat 14.28 +0.08 14.8 17.88 57K 312K 13.76
Current. Very tight, flat lateral move.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 81.2 +0.45 0 0 367K 0 71.75
RNR 07/01 A Wedge 47.8 -0.26 47.32 55 524K 500K 45
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.89 +0.19 26.3 30.94 3.8M 6M 25.85
Current.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 28.07 -0.62 17.71 21.25 11M 4M 25
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA on the low but again made the comeback.
SKYF 06/21 Test 50 22.85 +0.39 21.78 25 154K 250K 20.95
Buy Not Issued.
SOHU 06/26 Test 50 39.85 -0.76 29.9 35.88 5.5M 2.5M 36.55
Current. Tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and rebounded on some strong volume.
STST 07/07 Test BO 17.94 +1.45 15.29 18.12 89K 103K 15.95
Current. Super move higher off the 10 day MVA.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 54.59 -0.97 0 0 2.2M 5M 53.75
TMWD 06/11 Test BO 3 0 2.32 3.25 75K 140K 2.78
Current. Working laterally over the 10 day MVA.
TPTH 06/18 A Wedge 6.99 +0.18 7.4 8.95 86K 352K 6.98
Current. Holding the simple 50 day MVA on low volume.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 52.62 +1.61 46.85 55.25 275K 603K 48
Current. Surging on that split. Looks ready for the next breakout over 53.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 52.62 +1.61 43.75 52 275K 603K 48
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 52.62 +1.61 38.6 44.38 275K 577K 48
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.95 +0.95 7.7 9.45 601K 200K 6.96
Current. Outstanding breakout on surging volume.
UBET 07/22 Cup hdl 3.63 +0.03 4.12 5.15 265K 920K 3.74
New.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 27.46 -0.21 28.8 34.12 561K 2.1M 26.78
Current. Trying to hold the 18 day MVA for a bounce.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 27.46 -0.21 23.45 28 561K 2M 27
Current.
VOCL 07/10 Cup 6.1 +0.3 5.25 6.45 215K 125K 4.88
Current. Volume is coming in as it moves up off the 10 day MVA.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 27.62 +0.74 19.76 20 7M 8.5M 28
Current.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16 +0.36 16.38 19.75 171K 250K 15.23
Buy Not Hit.
WMT 02/05 Put 56.9 +0.94 0 0 6.5M 8.2M 0
Up off the 18 day MVA on some rising volume. Needs to get over 58.
WWCA 05/22 BO 14.08 +0.87 11.42 13.85 1.7M 824K 12.42
Current. Nice break higher and still a buy up over 14.12.
XING 07/02 Test BO 14.08 +0.87 11.2 13.55 1.7M 499K 11.94
Exited. Used a trailing stop to exit remaining positions as
XING did not participate in the rally.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 31.25 +0.2 17.32 25 13M 20M 32.15
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA and was up after hours on the AMZN news.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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