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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Thursday: CECO; CHINA; GPRO. Many stocks are holding up well in their own consolidations.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
New pre-split:
Play Date: 07/24/2003
RARE (Rare Hospitality--$35.49; +0.49; optionable): Restaurants. Splits 3:2 but company has not released the definitive date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rare.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. RARE exploded out of a 16 month base in May, rallying up to 16 on a strong move. It is now making the first real test of the run higher, coming back to test the 18 day MVA (34.46) the past three weeks. Thursday RARE gapped down to the 18 day MVA on the open and then rallied hard to retake the 10 day MVA (35) on rising, average volume. Money flow is huge and relative strength has broken out as well. Given that it came back off of its high to close we are going to let it break over the July high and then move in.
Volume: 288.9K Avg Volume: 290K
BUY POINT: $36.06 Volume=300K Target=$41.48 Stop=$34.45
POSITION: QRH KG - Nov. $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rare.html
Solid upside:
Play Date: 07/24/2003
COHU (Cohu--$18.51; +0.28; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cohu.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. COHU is moving through an 11 week base showing positinve accumulation at 3 to 2 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). The last week has been a boon for COHU as it has money flow surged as it completes its base. Voume has been solid on the move up off the 50 day MVA (17.28), and Thursday volume was huge after COHU reported strong results. It rallied to 19 and then fell back with the overall market. Still a solid pattern and we are sitting back and waiting for it to deliver a breakout.
Volume: 285.357K Avg Volume: 99.727K
BUY POINT: $19.85 Volume=155K Target=$23.88 Stop=$18.46
POSITION: QCH KW - Nov. $17.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cohu.html
Play Date: 07/24/2003
FRNT (Frontier Airlines--$12.65; +0.33; optionable): Regional/major airline
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frnt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FRNT peaked in 2002 at 23ish and then fell into this long base. It bounced along the bottom in February, forming a cup with handle that led to the breakout in June. It rallied on up to 13 and has spent July forming a very tight, flat handle over the 10 day MVA (12.40). You can call this the handle of a 14 month base or a test of the breakout from that shorter base formed this year. Either way the accumulation is solid (9 to 5 in the recent base). Money flow and accumulation are excellent as the stock forms this very nice, tight handle. Thursday volume was up to near average. Looks like FRNT is ready to make the breakout higher.
Volume: 499.303K Avg Volume: 457.136K
BUY POINT: $13.46 Volume=686K Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.44
POSITION: FUO KV - Sept. $12.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frnt.html
Play Date: 07/24/2003
PCTI (PC-Tel--$13.23; -0.12; no options): PC networking and communication hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcti.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. PCTI is working through a 7 week base showing excellent accumulation at 4 to 1 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). Money flow is huge as well, and relative strength is ready for a breakout. Thursday PCTI was trying to make a breakout on the AWE earnings because PCTI is a provider of wireless access hardware for the AWE system. It was not able to hold the move as the market pulled back as well. Very solid and looking for a breakout. Earnings are 7-29, but we like the pattern and will take some positions as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 839.121K Avg Volume: 325.909K
BUY POINT: $14.06 Volume=489K Target=$16.88 Stop=$12.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcti.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/24/2003
BER (W.R. Berkley--$48.46; +1.28; optionable): P&I Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Put. BER crashed through the 50 day MVA (49.77) Monday and plummeted to 47. It rebounded Thursday up to 49.15 on the high but faded from there to close with a loose doji. It may try another move up to test the 50 day MVA, but whether it tries that or just starts another fall from here, we are lokingat capturing some of the move for a nice downside gain. The stock is under distribution and money flow is tanking.
Volume: 946.7K Avg Volume: 383K
BUY POINT: $47.94 Volume=574K Target=$43.45 Stop=$49.25
POSITION: BER UI - Sept. $50p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ber.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 07/21/2003
CELL (Brightpoint--$18.6; -0.9; no options): Wholesale electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CELL broke out Tuesday on a huge volume move. It is making a low volume test of the move. Want it to hold the breakout at 18 where there is support and then bounce higher on volume.
Volume: 170.494K Avg Volume: 155.954K
BUY POINT: Test 18, then 18.45 on the rebound on volume (orig. $19.25) Volume=225K Target=$23.25 Stop=$17.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
Play Date: 07/14/2003
FFIV (F5 Networks--$17.41; +0.41; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Flat. Moving laterally in a 7 week flat base, FFIV has just tested the 50 day MVA (16.58) and is starting back up on a very strong volume surge. After hours it reported earnings that look solid. We will see if that accumulation and solid money flow can help propel it to a strong breakout.
Volume: 1.255M Avg Volume: 530.545K
BUY POINT: $18.96 Volume=800K Target=$23 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: FLK JW - Oct. $17.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
Play Date: 07/22/2003
LSI (LSI Logic--$9.03; +0.31; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LSI reported earnings Wednesday after the close. It gapped higher on the open, charging ahead, but then spent most of the session working back. Indeed, it tested all the way back to the 18 day MVA on the intraday low (8.09) and then rallied back on huge volume. Money flow is huge and relative strenght is breaking out. Accumulation is excellent at 12 to 3 (12 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). We will see if it can hold the breakout at 9 and rally back. Very solid, but need to see a solid bounce that holds to the close.
Volume: 10.516M Avg Volume: 4.825M
BUY POINT: $9.08 Volume=7.2M Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.44
POSITION: LSI JU - Oct. $7.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lsi.html
Play Date: 07/16/2003
XMSR (XM Satellite Radio--$13.15; +0.49; optionable): Satellite radio
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xmsr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle of an 18 month cup with handle base, holding the 18 day MVA (12.53) on the lows as volume backs way down below average. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is ready for the breakout. Volume was starting back up on Thursday. Looking for a breakout on a strong volume surge.
Volume: 4.681M Avg Volume: 6.802M
BUY POINT: $14.25 Volume=11M Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.12
POSITION: QSY JC - Oct. $15c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xmsr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$43.98; -0.22; optionable): Computer ITS
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: Descending triangle. Gapped to the 18 day MVA on the Thursday open (45) and then fell over on rising volume. Tested a bit higher than we anticipated, but the higher volume rollover is what we were looking for. Now we let it drop below 44 on continued strong volume.
Volume: 1.585M Avg Volume: 1.872M
BUY POINT: New: 43.65 (orig. $42.40) Volume=2M Target=$40 Stop=$45.05
POSITION: ACS UI - Sept. $45p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acs.html
Play Date: 07/17/2003
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$36.9; -1.72; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Put. Tested the simple 50 day MVA again on the high (38.90) and then collapsed on high volume. It is right at the buy point, and it could give a reflex bounce to start the session after such a strong rush lower. Either way we will look for a further move below 37.
Volume: 1.677M Avg Volume: 1.075M
BUY POINT: New: From here (orig. $36.92) Volume=900K Target=$34.25 Stop=$38.25
POSITION: BDX UH - Sept. $40p (-80 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bdx.html
Play Date: 07/22/2003
CSC (Computer Sciences--$38.25; -0.38; optionable): Information technology software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csc.html
STATUS: Put. Tapped the simple 50 day MVA on the Thursday high (39.10) and rolled over. It managed to hold 38 on the close where there is some support from late June. Looking for a breakdown on some volume from here. If we see the market selling and CSC falling on volume we will look at some more aggressive positions.
Volume: 1.194M Avg Volume: 1.603M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $37.66 (orig. $36.96) Volume=2M Target=$34 Stop=$38.25
POSITION: CSC UH - Sept. $40p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/csc.html
Play Date: 07/21/2003
LSTR (Landstar System--$61.45; -0.9; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lstr.html
STATUS: Put. Still struggling at the 50 day MVA, tapping it on the high (62.61) and then dropping back down to close t at the session low. The candlestick pattern was a tombstone doji after the low volume move back up to test the breakdown. Looking for a higher volume drop after this test.
Volume: 136.34K Avg Volume: 134.454K
BUY POINT: New: $61.35 (orig. $61.75) Volume=200K Target=$57.75 Stop=$62.35
POSITION: QRY UL - Sept. $60p (-38 delta) or QRY UM - Sept. $65p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lstr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
EBAY announced after the close but was down after hours.
TSCO announced Monday and has been rallying well.
CECO announced after the close Tuesday and has exploded higher.
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Exited with a trailing stop Monday and gapped down to the 50 day MVA Tuesday, but should perform better with the CECO earnings.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings. Beat earnings and raised its forecast.
BIO: Forecast 7-28 before the open.
CECO: Announced 7-22 with earnings.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings.
COH: Forecast 7-29 before the open with earnings.
EBAY: Announced 7-24 after the close. Was selling after hours as it beat by 2 cents, doubled revenues.
ETN: No split announced with earnings. Nice volume move Wednesday got us in. Tested back Thursday on lower volume.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings, but still solid.
HAR: Forecast 7-30 in conjunction with earnings. Still over the short term MVA but not ready to get in yet.
KRON: Forecast 7-24-03 in conjunction with earnings. No split announced, guided in line. After taking the gain last week we saw nothing to get us back in the stock ahead of the earnings.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings.
LXK: No announcement with earnings 7-21 and was drilled. Bounced back to the 200 day MVA but started to stall so closed it.
MME: Forecast in early 8-6 with earnings (company has not confirmed whether before or after). Not giving us a reason to get in for now.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16. Nice steady move higher though on very low volume.
TSCO: Announced 7-22 and has surged since. Showing a doji Thursday so if it starts lower Friday we will take some option gain.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings. Nice jump off the 18 day MVA on the CECO news.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
BIO (Bio-rad Labs--$61; -0.1; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 7-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that BIO has ever announced a split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bio.html
STATUS: Flat base. Forming a nice tight handle to the base this week after moving right up to the breakout point. Volume has backed way off as it makes the move, indicating no real sellers at this level. Really like the current short base with its strong money flow and relative strength. Just waiting for the strong volume breakout.
Volume: 65.7K Avg Volume: 197.227K
BUY POINT: New: $61.85 Volume=288K Target=$73 Stop=$59.25
POSITION: BIO IL - Sept. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bio.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$52; +0.7; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 8-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-21-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After a quick test of the 50 day MVA (48.43) Tuesday and then COCO was rallying on the CECO earnings report. It has rallied back up to the breakout point, but volume has backed off. Need to see a strong breakout over that level on much stronger trade. On that move we will start opening positions. Accumulation was a solid 6 to 3 in the earlier base, setting up the foundation for this move. Money flow is strong and relative strength is breaking out. Sectors tend to announce splits together and thus we are looking for good things from COCO.
Volume: 728.696K Avg Volume: 797.09K
BUY POINT: $52.95 Volume=1.2M Target=$63.65 Stop=$49.24
POSITION: UCS KJ - Nov. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 07/10/2003
COH (Coach--$53.11; -0.52; optionable): High-end handbags and related items. Forecast to announce a split on 7-29-03 before the open in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-2-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $55.59. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-6-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Holding up well in its own consolidation over the 18 day MVA (53.10), COH is working out the kinks as it holds over the June high. Retail has formed up better and just waiting for a strong breakout. Money flow remains excellent as does relative strength.
Volume: 675.5K Avg Volume: 904.454K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $54.25; Next: $55.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$65 Stop=$51.66
POSITION: COH BK - Nov. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
LM (Legg Mason--$69.65; +0.47; optionable): Investment brokerage
BACKGROUND: LM last announced a 2:1 split in July 1998 at a price of $62.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still in that tight lateral consolidation over the 18 day MVA (68.69), consolidating for the next move higher. Strong money flow and relative strength is ready to breakout yet again.
Volume: 407.4K Avg Volume: 476.136K
BUY POINT: $70.55 Volume=700K Target=$80 Stop=$67.45
POSITION: LM KN - Nov. $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lm.html
Play Date: 10/10/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$56.79; +1.24; optionable): Online education. Researching the next date as UOPX did not announce with 6-23-03 earnings. Still looking good, however, so staying with it.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. UOPX jumped off the 18 day MVA on the CECO earnings and split news, but its move capped out Thursday at 57.95, the same point that stopped it earlier in the month. Looking for a test of 55 to 54 (the 18 day MVA). From there if UOPX can turn and rally on volume we move in with some more positions.
Volume: 162.582K Avg Volume: 231.045K
BUY POINT: New: Test 55 to 54, then 56 on the way back up (orig. $48.60) Volume=350K Target=New position: $67 (orig. positions $58) Stop=$52.55
POSITION: UBY LK - Dec. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/23/2003
STT (State Street--$44.99; +0.54; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle of its 8 month base, holding over the 10 day MVA (44). Thursday STT started up off of the 10 day on some rising though still below average volume. Very nice base with excellent accumulation at 9 to 2. Very solid and showing signs it is getting ready for the breakout.
Volume: 1.749M Avg Volume: 1.852M
BUY POINT: $45.59 Volume=2.8M Target=$54 Stop=$43
POSITION: STT KI - Nov. $45c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stt.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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