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stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: AMZN; LPSN; SINA; SOHU; VRTS; YHOO
Wednesday night play results:
BRIO: Gapped higher on screaming volume but gave most of the move back. Looking for a test of 3 and then a rebound.
CORV: More of the upside/downside action, giving back most of the move.
ATYT: Still on the verge of the next leg as volume moved higher.
New Plays for Friday:
Downside:
Play Date: 07/24/2003
BER (W.R. Berkley--$48.46; +1.28; optionable): P&I Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ber.html
STATUS: Put. BER crashed through the 50 day MVA (49.77) Monday and plummeted to 47. It rebounded Thursday up to 49.15 on the high but faded from there to close with a loose doji. It may try another move up to test the 50 day MVA, but whether it tries that or just starts another fall from here, we are lokingat capturing some of the move for a nice downside gain. The stock is under distribution and money flow is tanking.
Volume: 946.7K Avg Volume: 383K
BUY POINT: $47.94 Volume=574K Target=$43.45 Stop=$49.25
POSITION: BER UI - Sept. $50p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ber.html
Upside:
Play Date: 07/24/2003
COLT (Colt Telecom--$5.2; +0.47; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/colt.html
STATUS: Breakout. COLT is blasting out of a short 7 week cup base, powered ahead by strong earnings results. This base follows the breakout of a 9 month double bottom with handle showing solid 10 to 6 accumulation. Money flow is huge and relative strength broke out on the move, a good confirmation of the breakout. We have a choince here. After such a strong move and with Nasdaq futures down COLT could open a bit softer Friday. We are looking for that and will pick it up on a test toward 5. if it continues up from here we will take a partial and then complete the buy when it tests and starts back up.
Volume: 378.8K Avg Volume: 86.59K
BUY POINT: Test $5: $5.15 on way back up. From here: $5.26 Volume=200K Target=$6.45 Stop=$4.79
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/colt.html
Play Date: 07/24/2003
AOS (A.O. Smith--$32.75; +0.69; no options): Electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aos.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Making the break from a 10 week base that is the tail end of a 15 month cup with handle. Accumulation in the recent base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume) and money flow is surging. Very nice breakout in progress. AOS has already reported earnings and is surging higher, a nice plus in this market.
Volume: 239.1K Avg Volume: 96.772K
BUY POINT: $33.05 Volume=175K Target=$40 Stop=$30.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aos.html
Continuing plays:
Play Date: 07/22/2003
UBET (Youbet.com--$4.04; +0.43; no options): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ubet.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Trying to make the breakout from its short 10 week base, surging Thursday on a solid volume increase. It hit 4.19 on the high but backed off just below the buy point on the close. We were very tempted to move in, but we set the buy at 4.12 for a reason as that pushes it past near resistance. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is making a breakout. Ready to move in on a further move.
Volume: 979.61K Avg Volume: 584.909K
BUY POINT: $4.12 Volume=920K Target=$5.15 Stop=$3.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ubet.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO:
AMZN 05/03 BO 41.31 +1.2 30.3 35.45 24M 12M 37.45
Current. Another gap higher but closed well off of the intraday high.
WMT 02/05 55.63 -0.87 0 0 7.4M 8.2M 0
Turned back down on volume as it could not break 57.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: CORV; BRIO; CRAY; HPOL; VVTV
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADRX 07/19 Put 19.36 +0.14 18.62 16 679K 1.8M 19.95
Buy Not Issued.
AMZN 05/03 BO 41.31 +1.2 30.3 35.45 24M 12M 37.45
Current. Another gap higher but closed well off of the intraday high.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 32.75 +0.69 33.05 40 239K 175K 30.94
New.
ASPM 06/30 FlyPlat 8 -0.24 8.33 10 9.4K 115K 7.72
Buy Not Issued.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 6.66 -0.03 6.5 8.25 112K 500K 6.25
Current. Holding the 10 day MVA on the test back.
ATSI 06/19 Cup hdl 4.22 -0.16 3.95 4.75 196K 225K 3.98
Current. Tried to make the move but gave it back with the market.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 11.04 +0.13 9.7 11.88 2.9M 2.4M 9.74
Current. Volume was up but could not quite make the breakout.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 17.21 -0.84 19.06 22.88 168K 376K 17.73
Buy Not Hit.
BER 07/24 Put 48.46 +1.28 47.94 43.45 947K 574K 49.25
New.
BRIO 07/23 Cup hdl 3.11 +0.11 3.08 4.25 5.5M 300K 2.86
Buy Not Issued. Another gap higher and turn back down. It held the
gains but it finished at the session low. Will need
to see it hold above 3 and rally. That is the buy point.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 44.87 -0.77 41.25 48.55 13M 23M 44.62
Current. Slid under the 18 day on rising volume. Being careful here.
CBIZ 06/24 Cup hdl 3.58 +0.17 3.33 4.45 44K 212K 3.12
Buy Not Issued.
CHGO 06/14 Test BO 11.28 -0.2 10.08 12.05 103K 140K 11
Current. Still working over the 18 day MVA.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.2 +0.47 5.15 6.45 379K 200K 4.79
New.
CORV 07/23 Pennant 1.47 +0.06 1.55 2 28M 11M 1.38
Buy Not Issued. Another stock that gapped up, ran higher but then spent
much of the day coming back. We dont like to get involved
with these on this action. It may turn right back up,
& that will be when we move in.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 9.05 -0.2 9.78 11.75 1.2M 1.4M 9.11
Buy Not Hit.
CSTL 07/09 Cup hdl 3.92 +0.05 4.2 5.2 43K 200K 3.94
Exited.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 38.19 +0.11 23.81 28.42 222K 225K 35.94
Current.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 38.19 +0.11 22.75 27.35 222K 225K 35.94
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 115.74 +1.6 69.45 92 9.8M 12M 105.55
Current. Was up to 118 intraday but gave much of the move back before the close. Announced solid earnings and a split, but earnings were not blowout. Was down near 110-111 after hours. Not too worried about it as it is a leader with a lot of gain built in.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 115.74 +1.6 62.45 92 9.8M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.04 -0.03 1.88 2.45 487K 210K 1.78
Current. Gapped higher but then gave the gain back as the market turned back.
FLS 07/21 Put 18.75 -0.28 17.25 14.45 319K 525K 18.45
Buy Not Issued.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 13.9 +0.35 10.55 12.75 528K 195K 12.45
Current. Another nice high volume move.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 13.9 +0.35 9.2 10.96 528K 195K 12.45
Current.
GRMN 07/17 Put 42.96 +0.98 39.54 36.48 447K 800K 40.72
Buy Not Issued.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 7.02 -0.08 7.22 8.95 101K 541K 6.68
Current. Tightening up nicely at the 18 day MVA on low volume.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 7.02 -0.08 6.7 8.38 101K 541K 6.68
Current.
IACI 07/13 Test BO 40 +0.05 42.28 48.85 7.6M 12M 39.32
Current. Still up off the 50 day MVA but ran out of some gas Thursday.
IACI 03/25 Cup hdl 40 +0.05 29.12 33.55 7.6M 8.3M 39
Current.
IBM 06/14 Put 81.51 -0.79 0 0 5.9M 0 0
Buy Not Issued.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 37.2 -0.59 0 0 2M 375K 36
Getting bought out and up about 18 points after hours. Think anyone knew? Look at the gap up on Tuesday.
ILXO 07/19 Cup hdl 18.16 +0.03 21.75 26.12 108K 601K 19.96
Buy Not Hit.
KFY 06/28 Cup hdl 9.31 -0.03 9.05 10.95 94K 130K 8.88
Current.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 52.13 -1.28 52.25 60 10M 14M 49.85
Current. Gapped higher and gave back the Wednesday move. Still very solid.
LIOX 07/16 Test 18 6.3 +0.04 6.58 8.05 310K 400K 5.92
Current. Nice doji over the 10 day MVA.
LPSN 07/07 BO 2.6 +0.46 2.22 2.95 1.8M 320K 1.94
Current. Super surge on volume.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 8.97 -0.63 10.26 12.45 98K 248K 9.54
Buy Not Hit.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 22.83 -0.67 22.25 27.95 380K 488K 20.96
Current. Gapped higher but gave back the Wednesday move.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 22.83 -0.67 22.8 27.95 380K 488K 21.12
Current.
MU 07/19 Cup hdl 14.85 -0.53 15.4 18.35 17M 16M 14.32
Current. Gave back some of the strong Wednesday move. Volume backed off.
MYL 07/22 Put 32.35 +0.21 30.96 28 1.4M 1.5M 32.05
Buy Not Hit.
NWRE 07/12 Test BO 17.38 -0.01 18.48 22.25 255K 900K 17.19
Buy Not Issued.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.48 +0.04 3 3.75 260K 900K 3
Current. Back up to 3.50 and once again slowing down. This is where it needs to break free from.
PDLI 06/19 Put 13.6 -0.33 14.75 12.04 989K 2.5M 14.75
Current. Back below the 50 day MVA. One more chance.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.9 +0.1 2.9 3.75 417K 150K 2.68
Current. Working steadily up the 10 day MVA but needs to break over 3 on volume.
RATE 07/15 FlyPlat 15.19 -0.26 14.8 17.88 123K 312K 13.76
Current. Gave back a bit of the move on lower volume.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 82.58 +0.25 0 0 301K 0 71.75
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.39 -0.45 26.3 30.94 3.8M 6M 25.85
Current. Announced results and was down to the 18 day MVA on average volume.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 34.1 +7.2 17.71 21.25 24M 4M 25
Current. Holy cow Batman. Exploding higher on a big upside earnings surprise.
SKYF 06/21 Test 50 22.8 +0.09 21.78 25 200K 250K 20.95
Buy Not Issued.
SOHU 06/26 Test 50 38.02 +1.72 29.9 35.88 5.3M 2.5M 36.55
Current. Moved up in sympathy with SINA.
STST 07/07 Test BO 17.74 -0.62 15.29 18.12 101K 103K 15.95
Current. Gapped higher and was on its way over 18, but then gave the move back so it is still dealing with that resistance level.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 53.78 +0.73 0 0 3.3M 5M 53.75
Making a stand at the 50 day MVA with a periodic and normal 50 day test.
TMWD 06/11 Test BO 2.84 -0.06 2.32 3.25 144K 140K 2.78
Current. Thudded back to the 18 day MVA after gapping higher.
TPTH 06/18 A Wedge 7 +0.02 7.4 8.95 36K 352K 6.98
Current. Still working over the 18 day MVA.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 56 +0.35 46.85 55.25 472K 603K 48
Current. Showing a doji after a very nice run on the split announcement. Will look at taking some short term option gains if it slides some Friday.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 56 +0.35 43.75 52 472K 603K 48
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 56 +0.35 38.6 44.38 472K 577K 48
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.43 -0.47 7.7 9.45 202K 200K 6.96
Current. Darn. Great breakout but then started a quick test. Volume backed off so it is still decent, but don't like immediate tests.
UBET 07/22 Cup hdl 4.04 +0.43 4.12 5.15 980K 920K 3.74
Buy Not Issued. Really thought about moving in late in the session
even though it backed off from the buy point, but the
buy was set there for a reason & UBET was unable to
hold it. Will let it reload.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 28.99 -0.18 28.8 34.12 1M 2.1M 26.78
Current. Still finding resistance at 30.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 28.99 -0.18 23.45 28 1M 2M 27
Current.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 30.2 +2.29 19.76 20 20M 8.5M 28
Current. Nice gap higher on the earnings but could not hold the run after the gap.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 15.67 -0.08 16.38 19.75 111K 250K 15.23
Buy Not Hit. Very nice handle forming.
WMT 02/05 55.63 -0.87 0 0 7.4M 8.2M 0
Turned back down on volume as it could not break 57.
WWCA 07/23 BO 14.98 +0.34 14.48 17.45 1.4M 824K 13.47
Current. Up to 15 and showing a doji. May test back some.
WWCA 05/22 BO 14.98 +0.34 11.42 13.85 1.4M 824K 12.42
Current.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 33.2 +1.08 17.32 25 18M 20M 32.15
Current. Nice surge on the AMZN coattails.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock split
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