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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: IGEN, PDLI
Thursday night play results:
BER: Not making the fall, but testing higher just over the 50 day MVA.
COLT: Held steady with Friday on lower volume.
AOS: Took a low volume breather. Still very nice.
UBET: Hit the buy and looked solid again to suck us in and then closed flat.
New Plays for Monday:
Play Date: 07/26/2003
BEV (Beverly Enterprises--$5.38; +0.49; no options): Long term healthcare
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bev.html
STATUS: Testing breakout. BEV broke out of a 7 month cup with handle base in June, the first base it has made as it comes off the bottom of its long decline. It surged to 5.50 on the move and has come back to make the first test of the 18 day MVA (4.76). Accumulation in the base was excellent at 7 to 2 (7 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume); excellent accumulation. Friday BEV exploded higher after this test, rallying on very strong volume once again as buyers came flying in once again. Looking to take positions as it clears the recent July high.
Volume: 1.942M Avg Volume: 917.523K
BUY POINT: $5.54 Volume=1.4M Target=$6.94 Stop=$5.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bev.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
NTN (NTN Communications--$2.2; +0.06; no options): Broadcast communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntn.html
STATUS: Cup. NTN formed a 12 month cup with handle that it broke out of in April on an explosive move. It rallied up to 2.33 in early June and then has pulled back to form the current 7 week base. The former base showed excellent 17 to 4 accumujlation (17 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume). In the current base accumulation is 3 to 0. Friday volume shot higher as NTN moved up off the 50 day MVA last week. Money flow is surging and relative strength is ready to break out in support of the move.
Volume: 274.7K Avg Volume: 133.286K
BUY POINT: $2.36 Volume=200K Target=$3.22 Stop=$21.5
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ntn.html
Continuing that still look excellent:
Play Date: 07/22/2003
CRAY (Cray, Inc.--$9.21; +0.16; optionable): High performance computers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cray.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CRAY broke out of a 4 month ascending triangle in early July and has since moved laterally over the 18 day MVA (8.93), forming another short triangle to consolidate the breakout. A very pretty pattern with the big pattern showing strong 7 to 3 accumulation.
Volume: 531.228K Avg Volume: 988.121K
BUY POINT: $9.78 Volume=1.4M Target=$11.75 Stop=$9.11
POSITION: HQC LB - Dec. $10c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cray.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
VVTV (Valuevision Media--$16.16; +0.49; optionable): Catalong and Mail order
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vvtv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. As the market consolidates some stocks are forming very solid patterns; VVTV is one. It is in the handle of a 8 month base showing solid 9 to 6 accumulation. Incredibel money flow showing a major positive divergence should pull the stock higher for the breakout.
Volume: 131.74K Avg Volume: 149.154K
BUY POINT: $16.38 Volume=250K Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.23
POSITION: UVR IC - Sept. $15c (71 delta) or UVR LC - Dec. $15c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vvtv.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: It is time to revamp the subsciber portfolio. The way we do it is have you vote on your favorite stocks for us to cover. Then when we get 8 or so with a majority we compile them.
We are also putting together a new leaders portfolio as this market consolidation should put some in better buying position. If you have any you feel are worthy of the leadership moniker, feel free to send them. We have several on our list already but will review any submissions.
IGEN 01/11 A Wedge 59.25 +22.05 0 0 14M 375K 36
Now THAT is a gap. A nice premium being paied and IGEN
shot higher to reflect the deal. Take the gain on any
options and then decide if you want to hold it and
become part of a larger company.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 52.44 +0.31 52.25 60 10M 14M 49.85
Current. Gave back some with a gap down Friday but then recovered
with the market. Still very solid.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: HPOL; MERX; MU; TZIX; SBUX
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADRX 07/19 Put 19.36 0 18.62 16 401K 1.8M 19.95
Buy Not Issued. Moving laterally along the 50 day after trying to fall
early on. Dropping for now but goign to keep watching it.
AMZN 05/03 BO 41.6 +0.29 30.3 35.45 11M 12M 37.45
Current. Quite a week for AMZN as it held the 50 day and shot
higher on superb earnings. Just letting it continue
to work for us.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 32.35 -0.4 33.05 40 88K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Hit. Edged back a bit on very low volume. Still a very nice
pattern.
ASPM 06/30 FlyPlat 8.4 +0.4 8.65 10.42 32K 115K 7.88
Buy Not Issued. Not attracting enough volume to break it away higher.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 6.52 -0.14 6.5 8.25 150K 500K 6.25
Current. Started up off the 18 day MVA on volume Wednesday but
sputtered out and fell back to hold that level. Firmly
trending higher, but needs to show us the break.
ATSI 06/19 Cup hdl 4.4 +0.18 3.95 4.75 104K 225K 3.98
Current. Over the short term MVA, working in a flying plateau
and trying to make the break higher. Still good action.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 11.22 +0.18 9.7 11.88 1.3M 2.4M 10.44
Current. Trying ot make the move over near resistance at 11.30
though volume backed off Friday. Letting it work if
it will, moving up the stop behind it.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 17.36 +0.15 19.06 22.88 68K 376K 17.73
Buy Not Hit. Has not shown the pop up we wanted so dropping for
now but will keep watching it.
BER 07/24 Put 50.5 +2.04 47.94 43.45 741K 574K 49.25
Buy Not Hit. Rebound gained strength. Closed at the 18 day and will
watch for a rollover. If it does not come Monday we
are dropping it.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.38 +0.49 5.54 6.94 1.9M 1.4M 5.12
New.
BRIO 07/23 Cup hdl 3.21 +0.1 3.08 4.25 919K 300K 2.86
Buy Not Issued. Well, with HYSL buyout announced late in the week BRIO
may have made its move. Getting some HYSL stock, but
HYSL is heading the wrong way to make this work for
us. Dropping.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 45.73 +0.86 41.25 48.55 10M 23M 44.62
Current.
CBIZ 06/24 Cup hdl 3.57 -0.01 3.33 4.45 79K 212K 3.12
Buy Not Issued. Has tried to make the breakout but has been unable
to hold the moves & volume has dropped. Not generating
enough volume so dropping for now.
CHGO 06/14 Test BO 11.69 +0.41 10.08 12.05 83K 140K 11
Current. Gapped lower and then rallied back. Showing much better
action, just needs some stronger volume.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.19 -0.01 5.15 6.45 116K 200K 4.79
Buy Not Hit. Finding some resistance at 5.30 on the highs. Still
waiting for the test of 5 & a rebound to enter.
CORV 07/23 Pennant 1.42 -0.05 1.55 2 6.9M 11M 1.38
Buy Not Issued. Fell back to the 18 day without any follow through
attempt to the Thursday move. Will watch it but this
was not the move we were looking for. Dropping for now.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 9.21 +0.16 9.78 11.75 531K 1.4M 9.11
Buy Not Hit. Still an excellent pattern developing.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 38.2 +0.01 23.81 28.42 156K 225K 35.94
Current.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 38.2 +0.01 22.75 27.35 156K 225K 35.94
Current. The lateral move mimics the indexes as it too consolidates
a nice gain. Letting it work over the 18 day MVA.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 112.24 -3.5 69.45 92 13M 12M 105.55
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 112.24 -3.5 62.45 92 13M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.08 +0.04 1.88 2.45 703K 210K 1.91
Current. Gapped higher for teh second day but again gave the
move back. Gold is volatile and the stocks are as well.
Just letting it move the best it will.
FLS 07/21 Put 18.98 +0.23 17.25 14.45 324K 525K 18.45
Buy Not Issued. All over the map. With that volatility you would expect
a drop but it is hanging on. Will keep an eye on it
for the breakdown on volume.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 13.92 +0.02 10.55 12.75 130K 195K 13.02
Current. Still making the move higher but finding some resistance
at 14. Good volume and still solid.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 13.92 +0.02 9.2 10.96 130K 195K 13.02
Current.
GRMN 07/17 Put 45.23 +2.27 39.54 36.48 754K 800K 40.72
Buy Not Issued. Not ready to break down, vaulting over the 50 day MVA
on rising volume. Dropping as a put.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 7.25 +0.23 7.22 8.95 172K 541K 6.68
Current.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 7.25 +0.23 6.7 8.38 172K 541K 6.68
Current. Once again HPOL looks ready to make the break higher.
IACI 07/13 Test BO 41.13 +1.13 42.28 48.85 7.1M 12M 39.32
Current.
IACI 03/25 Cup hdl 41.13 +1.13 29.12 33.55 7.1M 8.3M 39
Current. Used the 50 day MVA as support as anticipated, moving
up on stronger though still below average volume.
IBM 06/14 Put 83.55 +2.04 0 0 6.2M 0 0
Buy Not Issued. Managed to hold the 200 day MVA and bounce on continued
below average volume.
ILXO 07/19 Cup hdl 17.69 -0.47 21.75 26.12 185K 601K 19.96
Buy Not Hit. Still dancing with the 50 day MVA as the handle has
moved much deeper than we anticipated. Dropping for now.
KFY 06/28 Cup hdl 9.37 +0.06 9.05 10.95 72K 130K 9.05
Current. Working laterally along the 10 day MVA on low volume.
Moved up the stop though it is still in decent shape.
Moving laterally along the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
Moved up the stop just in case, but is still in decent
shape.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 52.44 +0.31 52.25 60 10M 14M 49.85
Current. Gave back some with a gap down Friday but then recovered
with the market. Still very solid.
LIOX 07/16 Test 18 6.25 -0.05 6.58 8.05 189K 400K 5.92
Current. Testing back to the 10 day MVA on low volume. From
there it needs to resume the breakout.
LPSN 07/07 BO 2.69 +0.09 2.22 2.95 1.1M 320K 2.23
Current. Has come alive on outstanding volume.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 9.38 +0.41 10.26 12.45 61K 248K 9.54
Buy Not Hit. Still working on the handle, holding 9 as support on
very low volume. Still a very nice handle and overall
base. Just waiting for the breakout.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 23.11 +0.28 22.25 27.95 347K 488K 20.96
Current.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 23.11 +0.28 22.8 27.95 347K 488K 21.12
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA after gapping lower
and recovering Friday.
MU 07/19 Cup hdl 14.65 -0.2 15.4 18.35 13M 16M 14.32
Current. Very nice test of the 18 day MVA on teh low and a rebound
to close with a nice, tight doji.
MYL 07/22 Put 32.61 +0.26 30.96 28 1.2M 1.5M 32.05
Buy Not Hit. Bounced to the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
NTN 07/26 FlyPlat 2.2 +0.06 2.36 3.22 275K 200K 21.5
New.
NWRE 07/12 Test BO 16.87 -0.51 18.48 22.25 268K 900K 17.19
Buy Not Issued. Not the best action as it falls below the 18 day. Will
keep watching it but dropping from report.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 3.51 +0.03 3 3.75 385K 900K 3.18
Current. Volume starting back up as ONNN does the same. Needs
to get over that 3.50 level that is holding it back.
When it does it will be ready.
PDLI 06/19 Put 13.17 -0.43 14.75 12.04 1.6M 2.5M 14.25
Current. Nice drop, finally breaking below the 50 day MVA.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.59 -0.31 2.9 3.75 657K 150K 2.68
Current. Plunged to the 18 day MVA Friday on big volume, holding
that level. Will look for a bounce up to exit.
RATE 07/15 FlyPlat 15.13 -0.06 14.8 17.88 99K 312K 14.02
Current. Surging higher Friday but then gave it back as volume
left. Great move Wednesday so we will see if it can
hold and then rebound.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 80.88 -1.7 0 0 345K 0 71.75
Still moving up the 10 day MVA. What else is new.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 26.7 +0.31 26.3 30.94 3.5M 6M 25.85
Current. Gapped lower but rallied right back up. It was a quick
earnings drop, and still looking for SBUX to provide
a new breakout.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 34.38 +0.28 17.71 21.25 14M 4M 29.45
Current. Earnings explosion last week. Just letting it run,
moving up the stop point.
SKYF 06/21 Test 50 22.92 +0.12 21.78 25 156K 250K 20.95
Buy Not Issued. Giving us one of those low volume crawls up the 10
day MVA. Not going to get involved with it here. Dropping
for now.
SOHU 06/26 Test 50 39.71 +1.69 29.9 35.88 3.2M 2.5M 36.55
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA after bouncing up off 35. Kind
of wild but holding support at 35 so letting it work
for us.
STST 07/07 Test BO 17.99 +0.25 15.29 18.12 28K 103K 16.58
Current. Tapping support at 17 and rebounding on microscopic volume.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 55.9 +2.12 0 0 1.8M 5M 53.75
Up off of the 50 day MVA test but volume was quite low.
TMWD 06/11 Test BO 2.9 +0.06 2.32 3.25 91K 140K 2.78
Current. Has formed another handle that is holding the 18 day
MVA as it does. So far so good, but it is at the point
it needs to make a bounce.
TPTH 06/18 A Wedge 7.26 +0.26 7.4 8.95 67K 352K 6.98
Current. Nice move off the 50 day MVA Friday but needs some volume.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 55.37 -0.63 46.85 55.25 183K 603K 50.45
Current. Took some gain but let most ride as it stalled some
after the big break higher on the split announcement.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 55.37 -0.63 43.75 52 183K 603K 50.45
Current. Took some gain but let most ride as it stalled some
after the big break higher on the split announcement.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 55.37 -0.63 38.6 44.38 183K 577K 50.45
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.58 +0.15 7.7 9.45 92K 200K 6.96
Current. Nice hammer doji at 7.50 on lower volume. It is set
up for the next bounce after this breakout test.
UBET 07/22 Cup hdl 4.01 -0.03 4.12 5.15 776K 920K 3.74
Current. Tried again, gapping higher but gave it back. Still
looks good and looking for another break through the
buy point on volume.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 29.39 +0.4 28.8 34.12 828K 2.1M 27.72
Current. Still working over support at 28 as it tries to find
footing. Looking very much like a lateral consolidation
is underway.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 29.39 +0.4 23.45 28 828K 2M 27.72
Current.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 30.76 +0.56 19.76 20 6.4M 8.5M 28
Current. Big gap higher after the bigi earnings held its ground
Friday.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.16 +0.49 16.38 19.75 132K 250K 15.23
Buy Not Hit. Looks quite ready.
WMT 02/05 Put 56.19 +0.56 0 0 6.2M 8.2M 0
Schitophrenic stock with its up and down action. In
short it still needs to base out with the ongoing tennis
match action.
WWCA 07/23 BO 14.58 -0.4 14.48 17.45 854K 824K 13.47
Current.
WWCA 05/22 BO 14.58 -0.4 11.42 13.85 854K 824K 13.35
Current. Nice move last week but ran out of some gas Friday
as it edged back on low volume.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 32.8 -0.4 17.32 25 12M 20M 32.15
Current. Holding over support at 32.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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