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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Friday: ACV; AMEV; GDW; PDLI
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
New pre-split:
Play Date: 07/26/2003
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$46.83; +0.2; optionable): Trucking. Splits 2:1 on 9-2-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. JBHT announced solid earnings and a split July 17, gapped higher and rallied up to 47.50. It has since moved laterally in a tight range, holding the breakout and moving on low volume. Excellent accumulation and money flow support the stock as it moves laterally to consolidate the gains. Just going to let it complete the lateral move and then explode higher on the next leg.
Volume: 360.334K Avg Volume: 668.435K
BUY POINT: $47.74 Volume=750K Target=$54.94 Stop=$44.65
POSITION: JHQ II - Sept. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jbht.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$78.87; +2.37; optionable): PC peripherals. Splits 3:2 on 8-22-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Broke out from a 7 month base in May and rallied sharply to 84, working up the short term MVA. After that move it needed a breather and came back to test the 50 day MVA (75.09). It is typical for stocks to breakout, run up the short term MVA and then test the 50 day MVA before continuing the move. We want to see volume jump on the move and Friday volume was surging back up as ZBRA moved up off the 50 day. Excellent money flow behind the stock. 92 may be a bit too much to look for, but we will see what kind of strength it ahs on the move over 80 and beyind.
Volume: 470.438K Avg Volume: 323.249K
BUY POINT: $80.06 Volume=485K Target=$92 Stop=$77.24
POSITION: ZBQ KP - Nov. $80c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zbra.html
Solid upside:
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$8.18; +0.58; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A bit of a skewed pattern, but still quite nice as EMBT moves through its 7 month base showing excellent 7 to 3 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). That indicates that there was a lot of accumulation of the stock during the base. Money flow is excellent, showing a strong positive divergence (higher here than it was when the price was at this level back in January. Friday EMBT was surging on very strong volume toward a breakout. Very solid move and we are looking for volume to continue on the breakout.
Volume: 514.574K Avg Volume: 172.863K
BUY POINT: $8.75 Volume=400K Target=$10.48 Stop=$8.14
POSITION: MBQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/embt.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
LIN (Linens n Things--$26.41; -0.01; optionable): Retail home furnishings
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lin.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. LIN broke out of an 8 month cup with handle in July with a solid run on volume. It ran to 27.79 on the high and then came back to test as stocks often do. It held the breakout on the pullback and is now working up the 18 day MVA (25.59). Accumulation in the base is a solid 10 to 5, with strong money flow. Retail has set up well in anticipation of an economic recovery and better economic reports. LIN has a solid foundation and we are waiting for it to continue the move higher on some rising volume.
Volume: 496.4K Avg Volume: 627.839K
BUY POINT: $27.24 Volume=942K Target=$32.65 Stop=$25.42
POSITION: LIN JE - Sept. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lin.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
TYL (Tyler Technologies--$5.17; +0.18; no options): ITS software services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tyl.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. TYL blasted out of a 7 month cup with handle base in early July, rushing up to 5.25 and then moving laterally the past two weeks in a nice, tight range between 5 and 5.25. During that time the 18 day MVA (5) has moved up to just below the stock. As it came up to test, volume shot higher Friday as TYL started to move up off the 18 day. Money flow is exploding higher and it looks as if TYL is going to follow it upside. Accumulation is a solid 7 to 4 in the base, laying a great foundation for another move higher.
Volume: 374.3K Avg Volume: 154.617K
BUY POINT: $5.38 Volume=240K Target=$6.75 Stop=$4.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tyl.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 07/24/2003
COHU (Cohu--$18.07; -0.44; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cohu.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still working through the 11 week base showing positinve accumulation at 3 to 2 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). It tried to make the breakout Thursday but fell back. Friday was another test of the 10 day MVA on the close as volume backed off. Reported strong results last week and is holding the pattern. Really looks solid as we await the breakout.
Volume: 192.27K Avg Volume: 108.048K
BUY POINT: $19.85 Volume=155K Target=$23.88 Stop=$18.46
POSITION: QCH KW - Nov. $17.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cohu.html
Play Date: 07/14/2003
FFIV (F5 Networks--$17.64; +0.23; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
STATUS: Flat. Volume jumped Thursday as FFIV moved up off the 50 day MVA (16.60). Friday it tested that level again on the low and rebounding for a gain. Volume backed off on the move to below average. The earnings could not blast it higher, but it held the 7 week lateral base all the same and money flow continues to surge higher. Nice action and just being patient and waiting for a breakout.
Volume: 464.742K Avg Volume: 563.244K
BUY POINT: $18.96 Volume=800K Target=$23 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: FLK JW - Oct. $17.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ffiv.html
Play Date: 07/24/2003
FRNT (Frontier Airlines--$12.69; +0.04; optionable): Regional/major airline
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frnt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FRNT peaked in 2002 at 23ish and then fell into this long base. It bounced along the bottom in February, forming a cup with handle that led to the breakout in June. It rallied on up to 13 and has spent July forming a very tight, flat handle over the 10 day MVA (12.45). As noted Thursday, you can call this the handle of a 14 month base or a test of the breakout from that shorter base formed this year. Either way the accumulation is solid (9 to 5 in the recent base). Money flow is also excellent as the stock forms this very nice, tight handle. As with many stocks in the market, we just have to be patient and let this lateral move complete and provide the stronger breakout.
Volume: 270.335K Avg Volume: 466.86K
BUY POINT: $13.46 Volume=686K Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.44
POSITION: FUO KV - Sept. $12.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/frnt.html
Play Date: 07/08/2003
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$7.25; +0.23; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. We have been waiting for HPOL to make its move for awhile now. It already has rallied well for us and now we are looking for more positions when it breaks out from this 3 week lateral move over the 18 day MVA (6.97). Volume has been edging higher the past week on the up sessions as the pattern improves. Excellent accumulation all year and money flow is still super and moving up ahead of the stock. We have waited this long, we can wait a bit longer.
Volume: 171.581K Avg Volume: 384.255K
BUY POINT: $7.22 Volume=541K Target=$8.95 Stop=$6.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hpol.html
Play Date: 07/22/2003
LSI (LSI Logic--$9.04; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LSI reported earnings Wednesday after the close then gapped higher Thursday. It could not hold all of the gain and Friday it held steady with a tight doji right at the early July price highs (9). It was a solid report, and after this small hitch we are looking for LSI to continue the break higher. Money flow remains outstanding. Accumulation is excellent at 12 to 3 (12 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Still holding the breakout over 9 and now we look for it to ocntinue higher on rising volume.
Volume: 5.205M Avg Volume: 5.125M
BUY POINT: $9.08 Volume=7.2M Target=$10.95 Stop=$8.44
POSITION: LSI JU - Oct. $7.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lsi.html
Play Date: 07/22/2003
MYK (Mykrolis--$12.99; +0.17; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/myk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MYK looks very good in the handle of a 15 month base. It is moving on very low volume in the handle after a very strong volume sruge as it rallied up to complete the right side of the base. Excellent money flow and accumulation are working and as with other stocks we just have to wait for the breakout to come from a very solid pattern.
Volume: 123.2K Avg Volume: 246.54K
BUY POINT: $13.64 Volume=363K Target=$16.45 Stop=$12.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/myk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
A strong week with CECO and TSCO announcing and rallying. EBAY announced but dropped after the strong run it has had. It did bounce off support and we are inclined to let it work for us.
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Not bad action with a doji at some support at 62.50.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings. Struggling a bit, tapping toward teh 50 day MVA several times last week. The uptrend has flattened out & now AVP is starting to work laterally to consolidate the June move. Letting it work if it will.
BIO: Forecast 7-28 before the open.
CECO: Announced 7-22 with earnings. Started back on lower volume after the strong run.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings. Tried to make the move Friday, gapping higher but then giving it back. Still solid.
COH: Forecast 7-29 before the open with earnings.
EBAY: Announced 7-24 after the close. Gapped down when earnings were not a total blowout, but revenues were up almost 100%. Amazing. Held support at 110 and bounced. Stop is down at the 50 day as we are willing to let it work for us. You may have other risk tolerances but we like that it bounced up off the 100 support.
ETN: No split announced with earnings. Still testing back but holding the breakout on strong volume.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings, but still solid. Beautiful surge on rising volume.
HAR: Forecast 7-30 in conjunction with earnings. Forming up better, holding over the 10 day MVA. If it continues to shape up this week we will look at moving back in.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings.
MME: Forecast in early 8-6 with earnings (company has not confirmed whether before or after). Starting to get interesting with a move back over the 18 day MVA at 55. If it continues to improve we will be looking at it this week.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16. Solid price surge, but no volume.
TSCO: Announced 7-22 and has surged since. Edging back on very low volume. Very strong surge.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings. Tried the move again but fell back at 57.50. Needs to work laterally a bit and then make the breakout.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/26/2003
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$45.33; +1.44; optionable): Regional airline. Forecast to announce a split on 9-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-24-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $36. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
STATUS: Breakout. JBLU announced some solid earnings yet again last week. It gapped over some resistance at 44 on the news but then fell back. Friday it was up again, closing over 44 but on lower, below average volume. JBLU is just moving out of a 13 month base, the only real base that has formed since it went public in April of 2003. This is part of the breakout run, and after a lateral move early in the month it is trying new territory. We want to see more volume behind the next move.
Volume: 994.135K Avg Volume: 1.047M
BUY POINT: $45.76 Volume=1.5M Target=$55 Stop=$42.78
POSITION: JGQ LI - Dec. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jblu.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
BIO (Bio-rad Labs--$62.1; +1.1; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 7-28-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that BIO has ever announced a split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bio.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume edged higher Friday, and though still below average, BIO looks ready for the breakout. It hit over the buy point on the close but volume was not there. Very solid and looking for a breakout over 62.50 as volume surges back up. Strong money flow and relative strength is ready for the breakout.
Volume: 99.3K Avg Volume: 200.686K
BUY POINT: New: $62.65 Volume=288K Target=$73 Stop=$59.25
POSITION: BIO IL - Sept. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bio.html
Play Date: 07/10/2003
COH (Coach--$53.74; +0.63; optionable): High-end handbags and related items. Forecast to announce a split on 7-29-03 before the open in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-2-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $55.59. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-6-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. COH continues its consolidation along the 18 day MVA (53.17) and price support at 52.50. A leading retailer and market leader as well, COH is setting up well for the earnings announcement this week. All we need is a strong volume session to move in. In any event, the split possibility is quite high and we want to be in some positions heading into the announcement. Money flow remains excellent as does relative strength.
Volume: 713.9K Avg Volume: 948.805K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $54.25; Next: $55.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$65 Stop=$51.66
POSITION: COH BK - Nov. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
LM (Legg Mason--$70.22; +0.57; optionable): Investment brokerage
BACKGROUND: LM last announced a 2:1 split in July 1998 at a price of $62.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Excellent lateral move over the 18 day MVA, tapping that level again on the Friday low (68.55) and recovering for a modest gain. Volume is starting to swell as it moves laterally, a typical sign of a breakout from a consolidation. LM is a market leader and we are looking to continue with it as we work on the next possible split announcement date. Strong money flow and relative strength is ready to breakout yet again.
Volume: 416.4K Avg Volume: 499.694K
BUY POINT: $70.55 Volume=700K Target=$80 Stop=$67.45
POSITION: LM KN - Nov. $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lm.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/12/2003
KSWS (K-Swiss--$35.23; -0.87; optionable): Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. After surging out of a flat consolidation in June, KSWS ahs come back again to test the 50 day MVA (34.75) on stronger, above average volume. When volume jumps at at a 50 day MVA test that is a sign some big money is stepping in to support the stock. When it breaks below it on volume that is a problem. We are looking for KSWS, a market leader, to rally back from here on a continued volume surge.
Volume: 328.943K Avg Volume: 208.505K
BUY POINT: $37.12 Volume=312K Target=$44.65 Stop=$34.65
POSITION: SWU JG - Oct. $35c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
Play Date: 07/01/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$26.7; +0.31; optionable): Expensive coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SBUX reported solid earnings again, and after some volatile sessions to end the week, SBUX maintained its pullback, rallying back over the 18 day MVA (26.37) on the close. The sellers took their shot and now we are looking for SBUX to make another run.
Volume: 3.457M Avg Volume: 4.152M
BUY POINT: New: $227.25 (orig. $26.30) Volume=6M Target=$30.94 Stop=$25.85
POSITION: SQX JE - Oct. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
Play Date: 07/23/2003
STT (State Street--$46; +1.01; optionable): Regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. STT rallied over the handle high Friday, but did not get any volume to support the move. The stock has formed a very nice 8 month base with great 9 to 2 accumulation. Still like it very much, but in the current climate we are not going to chase stocks that are not showing volume. Thus when Monday comes and more investors are at work we will see if it can produce some volume on the move higher.
Volume: 1.601M Avg Volume: 1.908M
BUY POINT: New: $46.35 (orig. $45.59) Volume=2.8M Target=$54 Stop=$43
POSITION: STT KI - Nov. $45c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stt.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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