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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Good movers Tuesday: CELL announced a split and surged; CHMD
Upside:
Play Date: 07/29/2003
AMSWA (American Software--$5.57; +0.06; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amswa.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AMSWA broke out of an 11 month cup with handle base in April, surged up the 10 and 18 day MVA to 5, and then started to form the current base. It fell back to the 50 day MVA (4.90) on the lows of the base, and then surged back up to form the current handle the past two weeks. Volume has backed off as it has moved laterally over the 18 day MVA (5.26). Money flow is huge and relative strength is ready to breakout. Excellent accumulation is helping set the foundation.
Volume: 12.9K Avg Volume: 131.5K
BUY POINT: $5.86 Volume=197K Target=$7.55 Stop=$5.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amswa.html
Play Date: 07/29/2003
ASML (ASML Holdings--$12.93; -0.23; optionable): Chip equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asml.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a handle to its 8 month base that sports solid accumulation at 11 to 5 (11 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume). It is moving laterally the past week on lower, below average volume. Strong money flow and relative strength ready for the breakout to support the move.
Volume: 3.054M Avg Volume: 3.413M
BUY POINT: $13.42 Volume=5.1M Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.44
POSITION: MFQ JV - Oct. $12.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asml.html
Play Date: 07/29/2003
PTEK (PTEK Holdings--$6.07; +0.2; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptek.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through a 12 month base showing strong 15 to 7 accumulation. The price/volume action is solid, drying up on the bottom of the base and then swelling the past 3 weeks as it broke higher to finish the right side of the base. Tuesday PTEK shot off of the 18 day MVA (5.75) on some huge volume. It closed off of the intraday high (6.29), the blemish on the move. Looking for another strong move higher on volume. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout on the move.
Volume: 796.75K Avg Volume: 183.727K
BUY POINT: $6.18 Volume=276K Target=$8 Stop=$5.73
POSITION: QTE KA - Nov. $5c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ptek.html
New buy point for a current play:
Play Date: 07/29/2003
CHINA (Chinadotcom--$12.9; +0.22; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/china.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CHINA surged out of a base in June, blasting higher and almost tripling on the move. It has now come back to test the 18 day MVA (11.93). It is trying to bounce from there, forming something of a pennant over some support at 12. Storng stocks such as this tend to form these pennants and then blast higher. That is what we are looking for here.
Volume: 14.31M Avg Volume: 7.088M
BUY POINT: $13.88 Volume=15M Target=$17.35 Stop=$12.88
POSITION: UIH LC - Dec. $15c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/china.html
New Pre-Split Play
Play Date: 07/29/2003
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$55.51; -0.17; optionable): Ranch stuff
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TSCO blasted higher on its split announcement, and it is now giving us a very good and tight test of the move. Volume has backed off and the range is very tight as it pulls back to 55. It may test lower toward the 10 day MVA (53.78) before it finds support, even down to 52.50. Looking for a test of the 10 day and then a rebound on volume.
Volume: 241.549K Avg Volume: 329.363K
BUY POINT: $54.25 Volume=494K Target=$62.45 Stop=$52.25
POSITION: QTF JK - Oct. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 07/28/2003
CHRD (Chordiant Software--$2.50; +0.23; no options): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrd.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Starting off the 10 day MVA (2.20) on solid but not breakaway volume. CHRD blasted out of an 8 month cup with handle base in June, rallied up to 2.51, and has tested that move. Excellent accumulation in the base at 8 to 3 (8 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume) set the foundation, and excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout show the strength.
Volume: 628.511K Avg Volume: 553.181K
BUY POINT: New: $2.55 (orig. $2.43) Volume=822K Target=$3.12 Stop=$2.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chrd.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$8.18; +0.07; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. As we noted, a bit of a skewed pattern, but still quite nice as EMBT moves through its 7 month base showing excellent 7 to 3 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). It tried to break higher Monday but faded back. Tuesday it was right in the mix again, still holding up well in its base. Very nice little base and just waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 162.754K Avg Volume: 167.909K
BUY POINT: $8.75 Volume=400K Target=$10.48 Stop=$8.14
POSITION: MBQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/embt.html
Play Date: 06/24/2003
INB (Integrated Biopharma--$8.94; +0.13; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inb.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A very tight lateral test of the 10 day MVA (8.75) after a very nice surge higher for us. Continued strength across the board in money flow, accumulation and relative strength. Looking for a strong bounce here on volume.
Volume: 19.6K Avg Volume: 46.636K
BUY POINT: New: $9.32 (orig. $6.15) Volume=80K Target=New positions: $11.65 (orig. $7.88) Stop=$8.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/inb.html
Play Date: 07/17/2003
TSCM (The Street.Com--$5.64; +0.34; no options): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tscm.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Starting the move, jumping up off the 50 day MVA (5) on very strong volume Tuesday. It looks ready to make the move with excellent accumulation, money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 396.01K Avg Volume: 165.5K
BUY POINT: $5.82 Volume=210K Target=$7.55 Stop=$5.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tscm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
CELL announced a split and shot higher! That is why we play leadership stocks; good things happen to leaders. CBK and BSX also announced and we will be looking at them for some pre-split opportunities.
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Not bad action with a doji at some support at 62.50.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings. Struggling a bit, tapping toward teh 50 day MVA several times last week. The uptrend has flattened out & now AVP is starting to work laterally to consolidate the June move. Letting it work if it will.
BIO: Forecast 7-28 before the open. Never gave us the entry, and it tanked on the earnings miss.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings. Solid move up off the 18 day MVA Monday.
COH: Forecast 7-29 before the open with earnings. Starting to move but gapped higher Friday on the earnings and sold back. No split announcement but very solid.
ETN: No split announced with earnings.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings, but still solid. Testing back to the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
HAR: Forecast 7-30 in conjunction with earnings. Just sitting over the 10 day MVA on low volume. A split and good earnings could push it up over 83 for a good buy point.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings.
MME: Forecast in early 8-6 with earnings (company has not confirmed whether before or after). Finally got some volume on a strong move to a new high.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16. Now the volume has come in with a huge move. Nice.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings. Still trying to get over 57.50
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/05/2003
PIXR (Pixar--$67.01; +0.61; optionable): Animated graphics. Still researching a date but wanted to get it up and running given the good pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a strong breakout on earnings in early July, PIXR has pulled back to test the 18 day MVA (65.74) on nice, below average volume. Very nice lateral move on top of the breakout from the base sporting solid accumulation, still rising money flow, and a relative strength breakout. Looks ready for the next leg higher.
Volume: 375.835K Avg Volume: 859.636K
BUY POINT: New: $68.25 (orig. $62.80) Volume=1.2M Target=New: $78.48 (orig. positions: $71.75) Stop=$65.94
POSITION: PQJ JM - Oct. $65c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pixr.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/10/2003
COH (Coach--$54.2; -1.17; optionable): High-end handbags and related items. No announcement on 7-29-03 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 5-2-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $55.59. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-6-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coh.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Gapped higher on the earnings but then gave the move back on a volume spike. This is still a really strong stock, and it held over the 10 and 18 day MVA on the close. We will look for COH to consolidate here for a short while and then start back up. Money flow remains excellent as does relative strength.
Volume: 2.167M Avg Volume: 884.727K
BUY POINT: New: $55.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$65 Stop=$51.66
POSITION: COH BK - Nov. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coh.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$45.94; -0.63; optionable): Regional airline. Forecast to announce a split on 9-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-24-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $36. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
STATUS: Breakout. Was flying up again on Monday on solid volume and that was a good entry. Tuesday it was up but gave some of the move back as volume continued solid. It may test back to 45, but we view that as a chance to enter. Moving out of a 13 month base, the only real base that has formed since it went public in April of 2003.
Volume: 1.274M Avg Volume: 1.007M
BUY POINT: New: Test 45, then $45.76 Volume=1.5M Target=$55 Stop=$42.78
POSITION: JGQ LI - Dec. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jblu.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
LM (Legg Mason--$69.49; -1.05; optionable): Investment brokerage
BACKGROUND: LM last announced a 2:1 split in July 1998 at a price of $62.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Continues its solid move over the 18 day MVA (69.08), again tapping that level on the intraday lows and bouncing back. Very nice lateral consolidation, and we are looking for the next leg higher. LM is a market leader and we are looking to continue with it as we work on the next possible split announcement date. Strong money flow and relative strength is ready to breakout yet again.
Volume: 352.8K Avg Volume: 481.409K
BUY POINT: $70.55 Volume=700K Target=$80 Stop=$67.45
POSITION: LM KN - Nov. $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lm.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/24/2003
SLM (SLM Corp.--$41.44; +0.17; optionable): Student loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still working on the 6 week triangle that is using the 50 day MVA (40.44) as support on the way up and finding resistance at 42. Money flow remains strong as volume backs down as SLM moves laterally. Just waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 1.453M Avg Volume: 2.522M
BUY POINT: $42.88 Volume=3.5M Target=$49.25 Stop=$41
POSITION: SLM JH - Oct. $40c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/slm.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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