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world stock market, us stock market
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: BDX; CHS; COHU; OPSW; TSAI; UNTD
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 07/31/2003
RIMM ( --$24.08; +2.43; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting the breakout from the handle of a 17 month base positive 17 to 15 accumulation. Money flow has been solid and relative strength has broken out already. Strong volume Thursday and still plenty of time to move in.
Volume: 6.181M Avg Volume: 1.408M
BUY POINT: $24.38 Volume=2.5M Target=$29.35 Stop=$22.67
POSITION: RUL LE - Dec. $25c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
New Pre-Split Play
Play Date: 07/31/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$63.23; -0.37; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1, date not set.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BSX announced its split Monday and gapped higher on volume. It is now moving laterally and slightly lower on much lower, below average volume. This move is forming a handle to its 6 week base that has formed following a series of bases that began in late 2000. Now that is what is called a later stage base, but as this is a pre-split play and we are not looking for a home run necessarily, that is not a real worry. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout already.
Volume: 2.509M Avg Volume: 3.704M
BUY POINT: $64.81 Volume=5M Target=$74.55 Stop=$60.55
POSITION: BSX IL - Sept. $60c (74 delta) or BSX KM - Nov. $65c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
CBK (Christopher & Banks--$39.5; +0.95; optionable): Retail apparel stores. Splits 3:2 on 8-28-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through at 13 month base showing 12 to 9 accumulation (12 up weeks on rising volume to 9 down weeks on rising volume). It is currently moving up toward a breakout in the handle that has formed this month. Retail has formed up well in anticipation of an economic recovery, and now we just wait for CBK to make the breakout on volume.
Volume: 380.5K Avg Volume: 288.5K
BUY POINT: $40.06 Volume=450K Target=$46 Stop=$37.26
POSITION: CBK IH - Sept. $40c (51 delta) or CBK LH - Dec. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cbk.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
CECO (Career Education--$83.14; -0.41; optionable): Education and training. Splits 2:1 on 8-25-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After a big surge on the announcement last week CECO is moving laterally in a tight range on low volume, holding onto its gains. Love to see stocks that make strong moves hold onto them as they digest the gain. CECO may come down to tap the 10 day MVA (80.92), but from here we want to see it break through 85 on some rising volume. Excellent money flow and relative strength. Has already made us some great money on the split and now we want some more post-split.
Volume: 419.168K Avg Volume: 850.909K
BUY POINT: $85.25 Volume=1M Target=$95.25 Stop=$79.28
POSITION: CUY JQ - Oct. $85c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 07/29/2003
AMSWA (American Software--$5.76; +0.15; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amswa.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume is starting to rise as AMSWA works toward a breakout from its 9 week base. This follows the breakout from its 11 month cup with handle base in April. Money flow is huge and relative strength is ready to breakout. Excellent accumulation.
Volume: 126.611K Avg Volume: 131.227K
BUY POINT: $5.86 Volume=197K Target=$7.55 Stop=$5.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amswa.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
EMBT (Embarcadero Technologies--$8.16; -0.04; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume is starting to surge as EMBT strains at the breakout from its 7 month base showing excellent 7 to 3 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Excellent accumulation and surging money flow have set the table for a breakout.
Volume: 230.5K Avg Volume: 179.136K
BUY POINT: $8.75 Volume=400K Target=$10.48 Stop=$8.14
POSITION: MBQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/embt.html
Play Date: 07/16/2003
XMSR (XM Satellite Radio--$13.77; +0.3; optionable): Satellite radio (these are really cool)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xmsr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working at the tail end of a 19 month base, forming a small cup with handle here at the end on very low volume to shake out the rest of the sellers. It tried the breakout over 14 Monday, and has faded back to test the 18 day MVA on the Thursday low (13) and then rebounded on rising volume. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout.
Volume: 5.19M Avg Volume: 6.163M
BUY POINT: $14.25 Volume=11M Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.12
POSITION: QSY JC - Oct. $15c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xmsr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Not bad action with a doji at some support at 62.50.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings. Solid move up off the 18 day MVA Monday.
COH: No split announced on 7-29 with earnings. Sold back to support at 52.50 where it is holding.
CPWM: New. Forecast to announce a split 8-21-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
ETN: No split announced with earnings.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings, but still solid. Running into trouble here, falling below the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Support at 82 needs to hold.
HAR: Forecast 8-11 in conjunction with earnings. Company refuses to confirm earnings date.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings.
MME: Forecast in early 8-6 with earnings (company has not confirmed whether before or after). Running into trouble and testing the 50 day MVA again.
PIXR: No date yet.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16. Good test of the Tuesday blast higher. Holds 76 and rebounds that is a buy point.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings. Still trying to get over 57.50
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/31/2003
CPWM (Cost Plus World Market--$37.27; +0.1; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 8-21-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-20-99 at a stock price of $47.The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpwm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Broke out of a 7 month cup with handle base in June and is coming back to test the breakout, a test that coincides with the 50 day MVA (36). We like that double layer of support. As CPWM tested the 50 day MVA Wednesday volume shot up. Like to see volume rise as a stock tests the 50 day as that indicates big money moving in to buy. We can take aggressive positions before it clears the recent breakout highs at 40, but would prefer to see the break over that resistance level.
Volume: 136.122K Avg Volume: 252.454K
BUY POINT: $40.06 Volume=375K Target=$48 Stop=$37.94
POSITION: CUS KH - Nov. $40c (37 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cpwm.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/29/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$62.39; +0.26; optionable): Make up. No current date as did not announce with July earnings. Looking for new date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. AVP is a market leader, but even leaders need some rest. After a solid break higher in May it rallied up to 65; good move. It has since come back to test the move, dropping to the 50 day. Thursday it showed a tight doji right on that level as volume started to edge higher. Want to see a high volume move up from here to enter.
Volume: 1.11M Avg Volume: 1.166M
BUY POINT: New: $63.35 (orig. $57.58) Volume=1.7M Target=New positions: 73 (orig. positions: $65.88) Stop=$61.68
POSITION: AVP JL - Oct. $60c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$54.64; -0.07; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 8-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-21-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. COCO shot higher Monday and has slid laterally since, holding the gain on lower, below average volume. May need to move laterally a few more sessions before it is ready to continue the move, but with the tight doji on some rising volume Thursday we want to be ready for it.
Volume: 597.313K Avg Volume: 786.818K
BUY POINT: New: $55.65 (orig. $54.15) Volume=1.2M Target=$64.75 Stop=$50.36
POSITION: UCS KJ - Nov. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$83.6; +0.9; optionable): Electronic equipment. Forecast to announce a split on 8-11 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in August 2000 at a price of $65. This is the first time HAR has been back at that level.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. HAR has run sharply up the short term MVA since its breakout in April. It made it up to 85, solid back to support at 80, and formed the current very tight, lateral move. Thursday it stared up on rising though still below average volume. It has shown excellent strength and needed this lateral move. Needs to show us it is ready here but breaking over the recent highs on strong volume.
Volume: 205.2K Avg Volume: 276.636K
BUY POINT: $85.25 Volume=420K Target=$98 Stop=$81.25
POSITION: HAR JQ - Oct. $85c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
Play Date: 07/26/2003
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$45.59; +0.64; optionable): Regional airline. Forecast to announce a split on 9-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 10-24-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $36. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
STATUS: Breakout. Solid earnings reported early in the week sent it higher, and now it has come back to test the move, holding over the 10 day MVA (44.79) on lower volume. This is the test back to 45 discussed Tuesday. Now we want to see volume jump on the move back up.
Volume: 759.075K Avg Volume: 1.007M
BUY POINT: New: Test 45, then $45.76 Volume=1.5M Target=$55 Stop=$42.78
POSITION: JGQ LI - Dec. $45c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jblu.html
Play Date: 07/12/2003
LM (Legg Mason--$70; +0.91; optionable): Investment brokerage
BACKGROUND: LM last announced a 2:1 split in July 1998 at a price of $62.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still in the excellent flying plateau formed the past three weeks, holding the 18 day MVA (69) the past two sessions and starting back up on rising volume. Needs some more volume to make the breakout stick. A continuing market leader that we want to own as it moves through the next breakout. Strong money flow continues.
Volume: 470.1K Avg Volume: 482.863K
BUY POINT: $70.55 Volume=700K Target=$80 Stop=$67.45
POSITION: LM KN - Nov. $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lm.html
Play Date: 07/05/2003
PIXR (Pixar--$67.8; +0.21; optionable): Animated graphics. Still researching a date but wanted to get it up and running given the good pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pixr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Strong breakout on earnings in early July has pulled back in a nice, low volume test of the 18 day MVA (66) the past two weeks. Thursday it tried to make the break higher but there was no volume attempt and it fell back. Again, solid money flow and a relative strength breakout. Waiting for volume to come in as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 374.977K Avg Volume: 859.636K
BUY POINT: New: $68.25 (orig. $62.80) Volume=1.2M Target=New: $78.48 (orig. positions: $71.75) Stop=$65.94
POSITION: PQJ JM - Oct. $65c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pixr.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/29/2003
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$55.4; -0.55; optionable): Ranch stuff
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A very nice, tight lateral move called a flying plateau that occurs after a strong move up. It is a sign of strength. Volume has tapered off as it moves laterally, and now the 10 day MVA (54.40) is rising up to meet it. That is what typically touches off the next leg when a stock is in this type of pattern after a breakout.
Volume: 242.439K Avg Volume: 330.272K
BUY POINT: $55.75 Volume=494K Target=$62.45 Stop=$51.85
POSITION: QTF JK - Oct. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/30/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$27.33; +0.46; optionable): Latte and such.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SBUX started moving up out of the nice lateral consolidation Thursday as volume shot higher and well above average, but it could not hold the move. It faded back with the overall market, holding some of the gain. Still a very solid stock and pattern with excellent money flow. Looking for another run here that holds to move in.
Volume: 5.588M Avg Volume: 3.782M
BUY POINT: $27.55 Volume=6M Target=$33 Stop=$25.94
POSITION: SQX JE - Oct. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
End part 2 of 3
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