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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: CRAY; FLSH; GMR; KFY; LIOX; MERX; UNTD; VVTV
Wednesday night play results:
AVCI: Starting the move on some more huge volume.
GMR: Super volume move.
AOS: Continued the move on average volume.
New Plays for Friday:
Play Date: 07/31/2003
INTC (Intel--$24.89; +0.4; optionable): PC chips, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intc.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. We have watched INTC progress this year, and after a breakout from a 7 month cup with handle in June it has formed the current two week lateral move to consolidate the gains. The prior base had great 10 to 5 accumulation (10 up weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume) that set up this move higher. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout continue to set the pace. This is one where we did not want to believe it, but INTC has set up well, is showing some big volume spikes as it moves laterally, and it can make us some money here.
Volume: 68.713M Avg Volume: 61.742M
BUY POINT: $25.56 Volume=75M Target=$30.65 Stop=$24
POSITION: INQ JE - Oct. $25c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/intc.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
PWN (Cash America--$17.14; +0.31; no options): Pawn shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwn.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A money maker in a down economy, it took PWN a long time to get going. It spent 21 months in a long, flat base before breakign out in April and rallying sharply. It has spent the past three weeks moving laterally to test the move. A very tight range as it moves right over the 10 day MVA (16.85). Super money flow and accumulation, and relative strength is ready to make a breakout. Thursday volume started to move up again, risign to above average levels. Looking for a strong, clean break higher from here on very strong volume.
Volume: 240.7K Avg Volume: 160.045K
BUY POINT: $17.75 Volume=240K Target=$21.35 Stop=$16.51
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pwn.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
RTEC (Rudolph Technologies--$20.05; +0.05; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rtec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. RTEC has surged back up to the January high, the point where the current 7 month base started. Positive 9 to 8 accumulation in the long base with money flow running ahead of price. Nice price/volume action as it pulls back from the strong, high volume move Friday. Just waiting for it to take out the recent high.
Volume: 158.05K Avg Volume: 347.818K
BUY POINT: $21.06 Volume=522K Target=$25.28 Stop=$19.59
POSITION: UXH KD - Nov. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rtec.html
Continuing that still look excellent:
Play Date: 07/21/2003
TZIX (Trizetto Group--$7.73; -0.03; no options): Healthcare information software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tzix.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a sharp break from a short 8-week reverse head and shoulders, TZIX has moved laterally on lower, below average volume. The stock is working in a very tight range as it tests back toward the 10 day MVA (7.50). After strong breakouts where the stock then moves laterally to test, the 10 day MVA often touches off the next leg higher when it rises to tap the stock price.
Volume: 71.071K Avg Volume: 145.727K
BUY POINT: $7.7 Volume=200K Target=$9.45 Stop=$6.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tzix.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: It is time to revamp the subsciber portfolio. The way we do it is have you vote on your favorite stocks for us to cover. Then when we get 8 or so with a majority we compile them.
Still looking at more stocks to put in the portfolios. We are also putting together a new leaders portfolio as this market consolidation should put some in better buying position. If you have any you feel are worthy of the leadership moniker, feel free to send them. We have several on our list already but will review any submissions.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: ASTSF; COLT; KLAC; MU; SBUX; TSCO
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMZN 05/03 BO 41.64 +0.98 30.3 35.45 9M 12M 37.45
Current. Up off the 10 day MVA on some rising, average volume.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 33.41 +0.52 33.05 40 110K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Issued. Up again on average volume. It was good enough to enter after the strong volume Wednesday move, but we just stared at it similar to bumps on logs.
ASPM 06/30 FlyPlat 9.18 -0.24 8.65 10.42 17K 115K 7.88
Buy Not Issued.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 6.76 +0.03 6.5 8.25 158K 500K 6.25
Current. Forming up well with a nice tight doji over the 10 day MVA.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 12.4 +0.4 9.7 11.88 3.4M 2.4M 10.44
Current. Nice resumption of the move on rising, above average volume.
AVCI 07/30 Cup 7.29 +0.29 7.35 9 411K 129K 6.84
Buy Not Hit. Big volume and surging. Almost at the buy point.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 18.7 -1.09 19.58 23.25 1M 376K 18.21
Current. Gapped higher and looked strong but reversed to give back the Thursday gain on strong volume. Needs to hold the 10 day MVA.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 13.2 -0.1 13.37 16.22 5.7M 16M 12.69
Current. Looked better than it turned out. Started higher out of a short handle it had formed, moving on some decent volume, but then it just dried up. Still working on a handle to its 7 month base.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.75 -0.11 5.54 6.94 1.6M 1.4M 5.08
Current.
C 04/18 Rv H&S 44.8 -0.08 41.25 48.55 15M 23M 44.62
Exited. Moved below the 18 day MVA on some rising volume. As
held September options decided to close those & the
stock position as well.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 2.91 -0.08 2.43 3.12 1.1M 822K 2.18
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher but then gave some back. Think it will come back to test a bit more before turning back up. That will give us another buy opportunity.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.35 -0.22 5.15 6.45 103K 200K 4.79
Buy Not Hit. Solid breakout and now coming back to test the move. A test of 5.75 then back up on volume is the entry point.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 11.08 +1.38 9.73 11.75 6.3M 1.4M 8.98
Current. Super move.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 38 -0.38 23.81 28.42 179K 225K 35.94
Current.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 38 -0.38 22.75 27.35 179K 225K 35.94
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 107.3 -0.86 69.45 92 7M 12M 105.55
Current. Still coming back to test the 50 day MVA and we are letting it do that.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 107.3 -0.86 62.45 92 7M 12M 105.55
Current.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.08 -0.05 1.88 2.45 255K 210K 1.91
Current.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 15.7 +0.55 10.55 12.75 550K 195K 13.02
Current.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 15.7 +0.55 9.2 10.96 550K 195K 13.02
Current.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.13 +0.53 12.14 14.45 382K 218K 11.22
Current. Excellent volume break higher as the breakout from
Wednesday was extended.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 7.3 -0.65 7.22 8.95 1.6M 541K 6.68
Current. Thudded down to the 18 day MVA on a big volume surge. Managed to recover to close at that level, but won't let it break down.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 7.3 -0.65 6.7 8.38 1.6M 541K 6.68
Current.
IACI 07/13 Test BO 40.32 +0.78 42.28 48.85 6.9M 12M 39.32
Current. Back up off the 50 day MVA on some rising volume.
IACI 03/25 Cup hdl 40.32 +0.78 29.12 33.55 6.9M 8.3M 39
Current.
IBM 06/14 81.25 +0.29 0 0 8.1M 0 0
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 24.89 +0.4 25.56 30.65 69M 75M 24
New.
IPXL 07/29 Cup hdl 12.3 -1.15 13.48 16.25 1.5M 759K 11.96
Buy Not Issued. Was off and running but rolled over on strong volume.
KFY 06/28 Cup hdl 10.7 +0.9 9.05 10.95 483K 130K 9.05
Current.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 51.65 +0.42 52.25 60 8.3M 14M 49.85
Current. Nice hammer doji on the 10 day MVA with rising volume. Has held up very well.
LIOX 07/16 Test 18 6.93 +0.28 6.58 8.05 686K 400K 5.92
Current. Back up to 7. This is the point it needs to break.
MCTR 07/28 Test BO 2.45 -0.2 2.45 3.35 443K 367K 2.28
Buy Not Issued.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 10.65 +1.04 10.26 12.45 410K 248K 9.54
Buy Not Hit. Finally gave the breakout, and it was solid.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 22.48 +0.29 22.25 27.95 286K 488K 20.96
Current. Nice hold at the 18 day MVA.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 22.48 +0.29 22.8 27.95 286K 488K 21.12
Current.
MU 07/19 Cup hdl 14.64 +0.29 15.4 18.35 10M 16M 14.32
Current. As with KLAC, holding up very well at the 10 day MVA.
MYL 07/22 Put 33.77 +1.07 30.96 28 1.7M 1.5M 32.05
Buy Not Hit. Dropping.
NTN 07/26 FlyPlat 2.44 +0.01 2.44 3.32 173K 200K 2.18
Current. Tapped the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounded.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 2.92 -0.37 3 3.75 2.1M 900K 3.18
Current. Did not fare well with earnings, gapping down where it tanked below the 50 day MVA but rallied furiously to recover. Will see if it can continue the move back toward 3.25.
PDLI 06/19 Put 12.77 +0.02 14.75 12.04 2.9M 2.5M 14.25
Current. Gapped down Wednesday on volume and could not rebound Thursday.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.95 +0.06 2.9 3.75 302K 150K 2.68
Current. Getting some volume as it moves up off a test of the 18 day MVA.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 17.14 +0.31 17.75 21.35 241K 240K 16.51
New.
RATE 07/15 FlyPlat 15.02 +0.91 14.8 17.88 189K 312K 14.02
Current. Nice recovery off of a quick dump to the 50 day MVA Wednesday.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 72.92 -0.38 0 0 467K 0 71.75
Tanked and if it fails here at the 50 day MVA, it is time to take the huge gain.
RTEC 07/31 Cup hdl 20.05 +0.05 21.06 25.28 158K 522K 19.59
New.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 27.33 +0.46 27.55 33 5.6M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued. Was cruising on volume but then was selling off at
the close so we decided to wait and let ti run through
the buy again.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 27.33 +0.46 26.3 30.94 5.6M 6M 25.85
Current.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 34.76 -0.43 17.71 21.25 6.4M 4M 29.45
Current.
SOHU 06/26 Test 50 39.74 +0.39 29.9 35.88 2.2M 2.5M 36.55
Current. Shaping up well over the 18 day MVA.
STST 07/07 Test BO 17.22 -0.31 15.29 18.12 20K 103K 16.58
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on very low volume.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 57.34 +0.11 0 0 1.9M 5M 53.75
TPTH 06/18 A Wedge 7.14 -0.24 7.4 8.95 190K 352K 6.98
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 55.4 -0.55 46.85 55.25 242K 603K 50.45
Current. Very nice lateral flying plateau.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 55.4 -0.55 43.75 52 242K 603K 50.45
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 55.4 -0.55 38.6 44.38 242K 577K 50.45
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.73 -0.03 7.7 9.45 71K 200K 6.96
Current. Very nice consolidation.
UBET 07/22 Cup hdl 3.86 +0.12 4.12 5.15 264K 920K 3.74
Current.
ULCM 07/29 Cup hdl 11.68 -0.15 12.22 14.96 34K 186K 11.36
Buy Not Hit.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 31.38 +1.19 28.8 34.12 3.2M 2.1M 27.72
Current. Tested lower and rebounded on some major volume. New high yet again.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 31.38 +1.19 23.45 28 3.2M 2M 27.72
Current.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 30.77 +0.39 19.76 20 7.9M 8.5M 28
Current.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 17.32 +0.92 16.95 20.45 298K 250K 15.66
Current. Nice volume breakout finally came.
WMT 02/05 Put 55.91 +0.01 0 0 8.9M 8.2M 0
WWCA 07/23 BO 14.65 +0.29 14.48 17.45 1.1M 824K 13.47
Current. Nice lateral consolidation over the 10 day MVA with volume starting back up.
WWCA 05/22 BO 14.65 +0.29 11.42 13.85 1.1M 824K 13.35
Current.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 31.13 +0.34 17.32 25 8.9M 20M 32.15
Current. A doji right on the 50 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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