|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Thursday night play results:
INTC: Still very nice, showing great relative strength to the market.
PWN: Very nice lateral move over the 10 day MVA.
RTEC: Started up on volume and still looks ready to breakout.
TZIX: Excellent lateral test of the breakout.
New Plays for Monday:
Play Date: 08/02/2003
FTUS (Factory 2-u Stores--$7.54; +0.09; optionable): Off price apparel and retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ftus.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Coming off its low in a long downtrend, FTUS broke out of its second base off the botton in July, gapping over the May high on the breakout move. It has spent the past three weeks consolidating the last move, pulling back to test the 10 day MVA (7.46) on lower and lower volume, the past two weeks on below average volume. In the last 8 week base from May to June accumulation was an outstanding 5 to 1 (5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). Super money flow to match the accumulation, and relative strength is ready to breakout again.
Volume: 190.433K Avg Volume: 270.59K
BUY POINT: $8.05 Volume=350K Target=$10.45 Stop=$7.45
POSITION: FEQ KU - Nov. $7.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ftus.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
KLIC (Kulicke & Soffa--$8.69; +0.02; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klic.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. KLIC broke from a 6.5 month cup w/handle base in early June, failed on the move but then turned right back up to march up the 18 day MVA (8.09). It just hig at 52 week high at 9.20 and hasd come back on a nice, low volume test of the 10 day MVA (8.42). Showing outstanding accumulation at 8 to 2 in the base (8 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow continues to move higher even as the stock made this little pullcack the past two weeks. Relative strength is also heading higher for a breakout even as the stock pulled back; very bullish action. Thursday and Friday KLIC was bucking the market, trying to rally even as the market sold Friday. That is good contrary action and we are looking for a break higher from here.
Volume: 680.926K Avg Volume: 995.09K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=1.5M Target=$11.55 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: KQS JU - Oct. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/klic.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/02/2003
VRSN (Verisign--$12.94; -0.42; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrsn.html
STATUS: Double top. VRSN double topped in June and July, then rolled over and broke the 50 day MVA (13.43) in mid-July. It fell to 12 and then made a below average volume rise up to tap the 50 day MVA again. Friday it sowhed a tombstone doji that tapped the 50 day on the high and fell back. This entire scenario has set up a further downside move toward support between 10 and 11. Looking to catch that move.
Volume: 3.441M Avg Volume: 4.541M
BUY POINT: $12.85 Volume=4.4M Target=$10.65 Stop=$13.45
POSITION: QVR UW - Sept. $15p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vrsn.html
Continuing that still look excellent:
Play Date: 07/31/2003
RTEC (Rudolph Technologies--$20.65; +0.6; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rtec.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice move Friday with RTEC tapping the 10 day MVA on the low (19.67) and then posting a nice gain on a solid volume surge. It is moving toward the breakout from the 7 month base showing positive 9 to 8 accumulation. Money flow is excellent and relative strength is breaking out already. Looks ready to go.
Volume: 291.412K Avg Volume: 351.5K
BUY POINT: $21.06 Volume=522K Target=$25.28 Stop=$19.59
POSITION: UXH KD - Nov. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rtec.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: It is time to revamp the subsciber portfolio. The way we do it is have you vote on your favorite stocks for us to cover. Then when we get 8 or so with a majority we compile them.
We are still putting together a new subscriber portfolio to introduce this coming week. If you have any favorites, let us know.
CONTINUING/WATCHLIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
These still look ready: INTC; MCTR; PWN; TZIX; ULCM; COLT; KLAC; MU; SBUX; TSCO
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMZN 05/03 BO 40.03 -1.61 30.3 35.45 8.8M 12M 38.25
Current. Trying to hold some support at 40, but volume is edging
higher.
AOS 07/24 Rv H&S 33.16 -0.25 33.05 40 190K 175K 30.94
Buy Not Issued. Coming back to test the breakout at 33 but volume surged
on the selling, stronger than the breakout Thursday.
We wanted a test but with the higher volume need to
see it turn and rally on strong trade.
ASPM 06/30 FlyPlat 9.14 -0.04 8.65 10.42 38K 115K 7.88
Buy Not Issued. One of those stocks moving up on very low volume. Dropping
for now as it never gave us a volume move.
ASTSF 07/12 Cup hdl 7.04 +0.28 6.5 8.25 695K 500K 6.47
Current. Huge gap higher Friday, but then gave back most of
the move as volums surged. Mimicked the markets action
on Thursday.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 12.8 +0.4 9.7 11.88 2.2M 2.4M 10.44
Current. Excellent recovery after turning back from a strong
move Tuesday.
AVCI 07/30 Cup 7.3 +0.01 7.35 9 68K 129K 6.84
Buy Not Hit. Strong surge Thursday but with the Friday market it
took a breather.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 19.12 +0.42 19.58 23.25 237K 376K 18.21
Current. After the big gap higher Thursday that failed, a decent
recovery Friday off the 10 day MVA.
BEAS 07/31 Cup hdl 13.07 -0.13 13.37 16.22 7.4M 16M 12.69
Current. Deep to the 18 day MVA on the low and rebounded on
stronger volume.
BEV 07/26 Test BO 5.6 -0.15 5.54 6.94 718K 1.4M 5.24
Current. Nice low volume test of the 10 day MVA.
CHRD 07/28 Test BO 2.7 -0.2 2.43 3.12 639K 822K 2.18
Buy Not Issued. Making the lower volume test of the breakout. May snug
to the 10 day (2.50) a bit more before starting back
up. This is the entry we were looking for if it can
hold and turn.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.34 -0.01 5.3 6.68 52K 200K 4.93
Current. Excellent low volume doji right over the 10 day MVA.
That was the test we wanted so we entered.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 11.21 +0.13 9.73 11.75 2.2M 1.4M 9.94
Current. What a breakout surge from the great pattern.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 36.23 -1.77 23.81 28.42 592K 225K 35.94
Current. Dove below the 18 day MVA on much stronger, above average
volume. Manged to recover over the stop point. Will
watch for a test of 38, but if it fails there we may
need to take the nice gain.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 36.23 -1.77 22.75 27.35 592K 225K 35.94
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 105.28 -2.02 69.45 92 7.8M 12M 105.55
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 105.28 -2.02 62.45 92 7.8M 12M 105.55
Current. Held the 50 day MVA on the close so we let this leader
have a little room to make its test and see if it can
make the bounce.
EGO 06/25 Cup hdl 2.08 0 1.88 2.45 292K 210K 1.95
Current. Tried to make another break higher Friday but fell
back. Still working up the 10 day MVA.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 15.76 +0.06 10.55 12.75 247K 195K 14.42
Current.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 15.76 +0.06 9.2 10.96 247K 195K 14.42
Current. Excellent week, rallying to 16 and now it is ready
to take a rest.
FTUS 08/02 Test BO 7.54 +0.09 8.05 10.45 190K 350K 7.45
New.
GMR 07/30 Cup hdl 12.27 +0.14 12.14 14.45 808K 218K 11.22
Current. Good week with a strong breakout. Rallied Friday but
then reversed to show a doji on strong volume.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 7.1 -0.2 7.22 8.95 543K 541K 6.68
Current. Tough Thursday, but sold but managed to hold support
at 7 Friday with a nice, tight doji.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 7.1 -0.2 6.7 8.38 543K 541K 6.68
Current.
IACI 07/13 Test BO 39.81 -0.5 42.28 48.85 5.6M 12M 39.32
Current. Letting it work laterally along the 18 day MVA as it
bases out some here.
IACI 03/25 Cup hdl 39.81 -0.5 29.12 33.55 5.6M 8.3M 39
Current.
IBM 06/14 Put 81.27 +0.02 0 0 6.5M 0 0
Doji at some suport at 80. This is where it has to hold.
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 25.02 +0.13 25.56 30.65 49M 75M 24
Buy Not Hit. Really looks ready.
IPXL 07/29 Cup hdl 12.83 +0.53 13.48 16.25 780K 759K 11.96
Buy Not Issued. Tried the move Thursday but reversed. Has calmed down
with a doji Friday. Still solid
KFY 06/28 Cup hdl 10.32 -0.38 9.05 10.95 564K 130K 9.52
Current. Oustanding breakout Thursday. Tested back Friday but
held much of the move.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 52.21 +0.56 52.25 60 7.1M 14M 50.12
Current. Very nice relative strength Friday, holding the 18
day on the low and maintaining its good pattern.
KLIC 08/02 Test BO 8.69 +0.02 9.12 11.55 681K 1.5M 8.48
New.
LIOX 07/16 Test 18 6.52 -0.41 6.58 8.05 328K 400K 5.98
Current. Still working up the 10 day, though it came back Friday
to test that level.
MCTR 07/28 Test BO 2.45 -0.01 2.55 3.35 800K 367K 2.28
Buy Not Issued. Huge break higher early last week, but has come back
to test that move, holding the 10 day MVA Friday &
started up on some volume. Good test and looks ready
to resume the move.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 10.55 -0.1 10.52 12.75 314K 248K 9.78
Current. Nice breakout Thursday and held up very well Friday.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 22.12 -0.36 22.25 27.95 232K 488K 21.68
Current. Holding up at the 18 day MVA along with most chips.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 22.12 -0.36 22.8 27.95 232K 488K 21.68
Current.
MU 07/19 Cup hdl 15.11 +0.47 15.4 18.35 9.4M 16M 14.32
Current. Showing that same relative strength of the chips on Friday.
NTN 07/26 FlyPlat 2.39 -0.05 2.44 3.32 71K 200K 2.18
Current. Strong surge Monday and testing it the rest of the
week on lower volume.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 2.84 -0.08 3 3.75 277K 900K 3.18
Current. Still holding the 50 day MVA after the Thursday gap
lower. Still looking for a rebounding up off this level
toward 3.25 to exit.
PDLI 06/19 Put 12.35 -0.42 14.75 12.04 1.3M 2.5M 13.12
Current. Will need to close it out this week on another push
lower given the August options.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.9 -0.05 2.9 3.75 92K 150K 2.68
Current. Still working laterally the past three weeks, holding
the 18 day MVA on the lows.
PWN 07/31 FlyPlat 17.08 -0.06 17.75 21.35 223K 240K 16.51
Buy Not Hit. Still in that great lateral move.
RATE 07/15 FlyPlat 14.38 -0.63 14.8 17.88 291K 312K 14.02
Current. Wild week, testing teh 50 day and then rebounding.
It holds 14 or we close it.
RCII 01/11 Test BO 70.11 -2.81 0 0 678K 0 71.75
Starting to dive below the 50 day MVA. Dropping coverage
of this subscriber portfolio stock.
RTEC 07/31 Cup hdl 20.65 +0.6 21.06 25.28 291K 522K 19.59
Buy Not Hit. Nice volume Friday as it looks to be getting ready.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 27.11 -0.22 27.55 33 3.6M 6M 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 27.11 -0.22 26.3 30.94 3.6M 6M 26.45
Current. Tried teh next breakout Thursday but gave it back.
Still looks solid.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 33.39 -1.37 17.71 21.25 5.3M 4M 30.52
Current. Testing the 10 day and the strong move up, fading back
on very low, below average volume. Nice test.
SOHU 06/26 Test 50 37.18 -2.56 29.9 35.88 2.5M 2.5M 36.55
Current. Broke the 18 day on still below volume. going to let
it try a recovery early this week.
STST 07/07 Test BO 16.6 -0.62 15.29 18.12 127K 103K 16.58
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop to take the rest of the
gain off the table. It recovered off the low but was
closign below the 18 day so we closed it.
TEVA 01/11 A Wedge 55.72 -1.62 0 0 3.1M 5M 53.75
TPTH 06/18 A Wedge 6.75 -0.39 7.4 8.95 200K 352K 6.98
Current. Was holding up but a very late session drop took it
down harder. Needs to rebound or out.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 55.71 +0.31 46.85 55.25 217K 603K 53.25
Current. Very nice, tight lateral move over the 10 day.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 55.71 +0.31 43.75 52 217K 603K 53.25
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 55.71 +0.31 38.6 44.38 217K 577K 53.25
Current.
TZIX 07/21 Rv H&S 7.56 -0.18 7.7 9.45 62K 200K 7.21
Current. Excellent lateral move testing the breakout.
UBET 07/22 Cup hdl 3.71 -0.15 4.12 5.15 235K 920K 3.74
Current. Nice doji at the 18 day MVA on low volume so let it run.
ULCM 07/29 Cup hdl 11.9 +0.22 12.22 14.96 17K 186K 11.36
Buy Not Hit. Still solid, holding the 10 day on low volume.
UNTD 07/12 Test BO 33.64 +2.26 28.8 34.12 3.6M 2.1M 30
Target Hit. Took some gain on a nice break higher, letting the
rest work for us.
UNTD 05/29 Flat 33.64 +2.26 23.45 28 3.6M 2M 30
Current.
VRSN 08/02 Dbl Top 12.94 -0.42 12.85 10.65 3.4M 4.4M 13.45
New.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 30.6 -0.17 19.76 20 4.6M 8.5M 29.06
Current.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.96 -0.36 16.95 20.45 184K 250K 15.86
Current. Nice breakout Thursday, gapped higher Friday, but then
fell back. Lower volume so still in good shape.
WMT 02/05 Put 55.27 -0.64 0 0 6.4M 8.2M 0
Trying to hold the 50 day MVA as it continues to range
trade from 54 to 57.
WWCA 07/23 BO 15.48 +0.83 14.48 17.45 1.6M 824K 14
Current.
WWCA 05/22 BO 15.48 +0.83 11.42 13.85 1.6M 824K 14
Current. Another super break higher from a super stock.
YHOO 12/11 Test 50 31.46 +0.33 17.32 25 8.1M 20M 32.15
Current. Still holding the 50 day MVA so letting it work for us.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
