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Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: COHU; LSTR; TSAI; UNTD; WWCA
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside:
Play Date: 08/02/2003
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$35.32; +0.18; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through a 16 month base, currently in the handle to this long base. The handle has used the 50 day MVA (53.36) as support, working laterally the past two weeks over 34 on lower, below average volume. Accumulation in the large base is a solid 16 to 9 (16 up price weeks on rising volume to 9 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating there has been overall buying in the stock as it moved through the base. Money flow is solid, and this quiet action in the handle often occurs before a breakout. We are looking at moving in before it clears the highs in the handle near 40; a good volume move will get us to start positions, and then we add on the break over 40.
Volume: 1.723M Avg Volume: 3.255M
BUY POINT: $36.28 Volume=4.9M Target=$43.55 Stop=$33.74
POSITION: UVM KG - Nov. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
TKLC (Tekelec--$14.36; -0.08; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tklc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TKLC just broke out of a 2 month cup base that formed immediately following the breakout from its first base off of the low in the in its long downtrend. The current base sports excellent 4 to 1 accumulation, excellent money flow, and relative strength that is ready to breakout as well. The stock blasted higher Wednesday on strong earnings and then spent the next two sessions pulling back on lower volume. It did try to rally Thursday with the market early, but faded as did most stocks. It may take another couple of sessions to complete the test that would basically form the handle that did not have time to form before the earnings announcement. We will look for it to test near 14 and then start higher on volume. Very nice action and a very solid pattern.
Volume: 454.235K Avg Volume: 690.545K
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=1M Target=$17.75 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: KQ KC - Nov. $15c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tklc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/02/2003
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$14.31; -0.36; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Double top. CMVT double topped in June and July, a bearish pattern. It immediately tumbled below the 50 day MVA (14.63) on that move. It has spent the past two weeks on a low volume recovery, moving up to the simple 50 day (15.15). It failed at that level Thursday and then gapped lower Friday. Looking for a continued move lower from here to take advantage of what looks to be a drop down to support near 12.
Volume: 2.309M Avg Volume: 3.459M
BUY POINT: $14.12 Volume=3.5M Target=$12 Stop=$14.94
POSITION: CQV UC - Sept. $15p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmvt.html
New Pre-Split Play
Play Date: 08/02/2003
EBAY (Ebay--$105.28; -2.02; optionable): Online auctions. Splits 2:1 on 8-28-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. One of our pre-announcement plays that has made us a lot of money, EBAY now shifts into the pre-split phase. It is a leading stock that has doubled since the October bottom. On that run it has made three 50 day MVA tests, this being the fourth one. This move started after earnings. Strong stocks that are going to continue their moves will find support at the 50 day MVA (105.59) as institutions step in to support it. While we are still waiting to see if EBAY does hold up at the 50 day, we want to be ready for a strong volume jump off of that level for additional positions.
Volume: 7.811M Avg Volume: 6.559M
BUY POINT: $107.05 Volume=9M Target=$120 Stop=$104
POSITION: QXB JA - Oct. $105c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 07/08/2003
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$22.09; -0.07; optionable): Gen X apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent test of the strong breakout from the 8 month base, coming back on lower, below average volume and holding the breakout at 22. Friday it showed a very tight doji right at the level. An excellent test of the strong break higher, and now we look to complete the position on a turn back upon rising volume.
Volume: 1.383M Avg Volume: 1.443M
BUY POINT: New: $22.22.68 (orig. $21.49) Volume=1.9M Target=$25.45 Stop=$20.88
POSITION: AQU KD - Nov. $20c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeos.html
Play Date: 07/29/2003
ASML (ASML Holdings--$13.47; +0.53; optionable): Chip equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asml.html
STATUS: Cup e/handle. ASML gapped up and out of its pattern Friday, defying the overall market selling. Volume was up but was just average; not bad for a summer Friday when overall trade was very quiet. Given the market and the volume, it was not enough to get us in on the gap, but on a test of 13ish and a rebound we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 3.805M Avg Volume: 3.439M
BUY POINT: $13.42 Volume=5.1M Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.44
POSITION: MFQ JV - Oct. $12.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asml.html
Play Date: 07/29/2003
CHINA (Chinadotcom--$11.99; -0.11; optionable): Chinese internet provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/china.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Still in a very nice test of the strong move, working lower and laterally, but Friday showing a very tight doji right on the 18 day MVA (12) on much lower, below average volume. We are simply waiting for this strong stock to make a break higher on volume.
Volume: 4.593M Avg Volume: 7.604M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $12.95; Next: $13.88 Volume=15M Target=$17.35 Stop=$12.88
POSITION: UIH LC - Dec. $15c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/china.html
Play Date: 07/08/2003
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$23.09; -0.47; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: Flat. Strong volume move in the 3 month base showing solid 4 to 1 accumulation. Strong money flow and relative strength that is moving higher along with the stock. This is the first base since its IPO in February. Looking solid here.
Volume: 156.083K Avg Volume: 346.738K
BUY POINT: New: 25.32 (orig. $24.92) Volume=435K Target=$29.94 Stop=$23.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 07/17/2003
TSCM (The Street.Com--$5.58; 0; no options): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tscm.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. TSCM has worked into something of an ascending triangle, a pattern with rising lows (along the 50 day MVA at 5.03) and a constant high (5.75ish). It has shown excellent relative strength to the market; indeed, relative strength is on the verge of breaking out, ready to follow money flow higher. The past two sessions have shown big dojis that tapped the 18 day MVA on the lows (5.28). In good shape and we just continue to wait for the breakout to come.
Volume: 69.849K Avg Volume: 171.636K
BUY POINT: $5.82 Volume=210K Target=$7.55 Stop=$5.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tscm.html
Play Date: 07/16/2003
XMSR (XM Satellite Radio--$14.05; +0.28; optionable): Satellite radio (these are really cool)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xmsr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Friday XMSR toyed with the breakout, but volume was still a bit low and it could not hold the move. It is at the tail end of a 19 month base, forming a small cup with handle here at the end on very low volume to shake out the rest of the sellers. It looks ready. We have seen surveys of the auto dealers who are saying that a majority of those getting the XM radio as a rebated option on their new cars are renewing the subscription after the complimentary subscription runs out.
Volume: 5.225M Avg Volume: 6.26M
BUY POINT: $14.25 Volume=11M Target=$17.25 Stop=$13.12
POSITION: QSY JC - Oct. $15c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xmsr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/26/2003
INTU (Intuit--$42.86; -0.27; optionable): Tax software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/intu.html
STATUS: Put. INTU is putting up a mighty struggle at the 50 day MVA (43.27) running up past that level on the intraday highs and then falling back. Volume has been so-so as it does this, never giving a really clear signal that it is ready to break lower. We want to see that volume ramp up as INTU breaks lower.
Volume: 2.516M Avg Volume: 3.407M
BUY POINT: $42.35 Volume=6M Target=$38.05 Stop=$43.45
POSITION: IQU TI - Aug. $45p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/intu.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We are putting those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves on the report. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
ACV: Moving it to a pre-announcement. No date yet, but a good entry point.
APOL: No announcement with earnings on 6-23-03 and researching next date. Another nice doji at the 18 day MVA on below average volume.
AVP: No split announced 7-23-03 before the open with earnings. Setting up for a move off the 50 day MVA.
COCO: Forecast 8-27 with earnings.
COH: No split announced on 7-29 with earnings. Holding support at 52.50.
CPWM: New. Forecast to announce a split 8-21-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings. Turned down to test the 50 day MVA.
ETN: No split announced with earnings. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA as it tests the recent move.
GDW: No split announced with 7-21 earnings. Testing the 50 day MVA on a huge volume surge.
HAR: Forecast 8-11 in conjunction with earnings. Still working up the 10 day MVA.
JBLU: Forecast 9-4-03. Jumped off the 10 day MVA on stronger volume.
LM: No split announced with the July 17 with earnings. Turned below the 18 day MVA in the lateral move. Support at 67.50
MME: Forecast in early 8-6 with earnings (company has not confirmed whether before or after). Doji right at the 50 day MVA.
NDN: New. Forecast 8-13-03 in conjunction with a board meeting.
PIXR: No date yet. Still looking for the next date.
SYK: No split announced with earnings on 7-16, but that did not stop it.
UOPX: No announcement with the 6-23 earnings. Another doji as UOPX tries to clear the recent high at 57.50.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/19/2003
ACV (Alberto-Culver--$55.2; -0.43; optionable): Personal products (beauty aids, etc.). No date pinpointed yet, but a good buy point.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in February 1997 at a price of $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acv.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After surging higher yet again on a recent break over 55, ACV has come back to test that move, pulling back on below average volume after a strong above average volume breakout. It is dipping more than we wanted, but it is a very nice test. We are looking for it to hold at 55 and then turn back up on rising volume. That is the time to enter new positions.
Volume: 205.9K Avg Volume: 270.272K
BUY POINT: New: $55.77 (orig. $54.80) Volume=400K Target=$65.85 Stop=$54.38
POSITION: ACV IK - Sept. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acv.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$34.01; -0.19; optionable): Discount variety retail. Forecast to announce a split on 8-13-03 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 10-7-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates but based upon our research these are the dates for the events.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 stock split on 3-12-02 at a stock price of $34.76. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS:
Volume: 346.8K Avg Volume: 542.227K
BUY POINT: $35.12 Volume=800K Target=$42.25 Stop=$4.08
POSITION: NDN LG - Dec. $35c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ndn.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 03/29/2003
AVP (Avon Products--$62.84; +0.45; optionable): Make up. No current date as did not announce with July earnings. Looking for new date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avp.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. AVP made its last breakout in May and rallied up to 65. It needed a rest and has come back to price support at 62 and the 50 day MVA (61.92). Friday volume was higher as AVP tapped the 50 day and bounced higher. It could not clear the short term MVA (62.87, 62.96), coming back to close there after trading higher. This is where a strong stock will start anew if it is going to continue the move. Thus we look for AVP to hold here and then continue the move higher on more above average volume.
Volume: 1.304M Avg Volume: 1.175M
BUY POINT: New: $63.35 (orig. $57.58) Volume=1.7M Target=New positions: 73 (orig. positions: $65.88) Stop=$61.68
POSITION: AVP JL - Oct. $60c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/avp.html
Play Date: 07/19/2003
COCO (Corinthian Colleges--$53.85; -0.79; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split on 8-27-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-02 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $53.25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-21-02 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still working laterally after the strong move last Monday, holding onto the gains. Volume has fallen back below average on the move, indicating no sellers dumping the stock. It may come back to test the 10 day MVA (53.20) before continuing the move, but a strong stock that can fly.
Volume: 422.116K Avg Volume: 748.181K
BUY POINT: New: $55.65 (orig. $54.15) Volume=1.2M Target=$64.75 Stop=$50.36
POSITION: UCS KJ - Nov. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coco.html
Play Date: 08/03/2003
SYK (Stryker--$76.2; -0.32; optionable): Medical instruments. Looking for an exact date. Earnings were in mid-July but no announcement with those.
BACKGROUND: SYK last announced a 2:1 split in April 2000 at a price of $73.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syk.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SYK faltered a bit when earnings were announced and then raced ahead, breaking out a week back on a strong volume surge. As the market waffled toward the end of last week SYK came back to test the move, holding over the 10 day MVA (75.61) as it does. Excellent money flow and a very nice pullback. Looking for the 10 day MVA to hold and then a move up on stronger volume.
Volume: 970.6K Avg Volume: 890K
BUY POINT: $76.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$88.45 Stop=$75.12
POSITION: SYK LO - Dec. $75c (delta 61) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syk.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/31/2003
BSX (Boston Scientific--$63.84; +0.61; optionable): Medical instruments. Splits 2:1, date not set.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in an excellent pattern, moving laterally over support at 62.50 after breaking higher last Tuesday on a split announcement. Volume is below average on the lateral move just as it should be. It is working well toward the next breakout, but we want to see volume jump back up when it does. Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to breakout.
Volume: 2.771M Avg Volume: 3.742M
BUY POINT: $64.81 Volume=5M Target=$74.55 Stop=$60.55
POSITION: BSX IL - Sept. $60c (74 delta) or BSX KM - Nov. $65c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsx.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
CBK (Christopher & Banks--$38.1; -1.4; optionable): Retail apparel stores. Splits 3:2 on 8-28-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in the handle of its 13 month base showing 12 to 9 accumulation (12 up weeks on rising volume to 9 down weeks on rising volume). Thursday it looked ready for a breakout as volume rose on the move up off the 18 day MVA, but Friday it sank right back down to that level. Just biding our time, letting it work through the handle and provide a breakout.
Volume: 225.2K Avg Volume: 295.136K
BUY POINT: $40.06 Volume=450K Target=$46 Stop=$37.26
POSITION: CBK IH - Sept. $40c (51 delta) or CBK LH - Dec. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cbk.html
Play Date: 07/31/2003
CECO (Career Education--$83.8; +0.66; optionable): Education and training. Splits 2:1 on 8-25-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Moving laterally the past week after the big surge higher on the split announcement, Friday CECO tapped down toward the 10 day MVA on the low (81.65) and rebounded to post a gain. Volume was still below average, but it is getting ready for the next move. Excellent money flow and relative strength. This is a stock that can fly. It made us great money prior to and on the split announcement, and we are looking for it to make us more.
Volume: 507.139K Avg Volume: 852.454K
BUY POINT: $85.25 Volume=1M Target=$95.25 Stop=$79.28
POSITION: CUY JQ - Oct. $85c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ceco.html
Play Date: 07/24/2003
RARE (Rare Hospitality--$34.41; -1.08; optionable): Restaurants. Splits 3:2 on a date not yet released.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rare.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. A strong run from June to July, RARE is taking a breather, falling back to the 18 day MVA (34.66) last week on the lows as volume remained well below average volume. The range has tightened, and RARE is preparing to make the next break higher.
Volume: 337.414K Avg Volume: 262.913K
BUY POINT: $36.06 Volume=300K Target=$41.48 Stop=$34.45
POSITION: QRH KG - Nov. $35c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rare.html
Play Date: 07/29/2003
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$55.71; +0.31; optionable): Ranch stuff. Splits 2:1 on 8-22-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Another nice session for TSCO, tapping the 10 day MVA on the low (54.85) and recovering for a gain. This keeps it in the tight lateral move of the past week on lower, below average volume. Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to breakout again. A great stock.
Volume: 216.85K Avg Volume: 333.727K
BUY POINT: $55.75 Volume=494K Target=$62.45 Stop=$51.85
POSITION: QTF JK - Oct. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/30/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$27.11; -0.22; optionable): Latte and such.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Tried to make the move at the end of last week, but could not hold the break. It is still solid, Friday tapping the 10 day MVA on the low (26.87) and rebounding to recoup most of the loss. Being patient here and looking for the move higher on good trade that holds toward the close. Volume: 3.591M Avg Volume: 3.851M
BUY POINT: $27.55 Volume=6M Target=$33 Stop=$25.94
POSITION: SQX JE - Oct. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
End part 2 of 3
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