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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Friday: ATYT; COHU; WWCA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/02/2003
KLIC (Kulicke & Soffa--$8.69; +0.02; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klic.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. KLIC broke from a 6.5 month cup w/handle base in early June, failed on the move but then turned right back up to march up the 18 day MVA (8.09). It just hig at 52 week high at 9.20 and hasd come back on a nice, low volume test of the 10 day MVA (8.42). Showing outstanding accumulation at 8 to 2 in the base (8 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow continues to move higher even as the stock made this little pullcack the past two weeks. Relative strength is also heading higher for a breakout even as the stock pulled back; very bullish action. Thursday and Friday KLIC was bucking the market, trying to rally even as the market sold Friday. That is good contrary action and we are looking for a break higher from here.
Volume: 680.926K Avg Volume: 995.09K
BUY POINT: $9.12 Volume=1.5M Target=$11.55 Stop=$8.48
POSITION: KQS JU - Oct. $7.50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/klic.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$35.32; +0.18; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through a 16 month base, currently in the handle to this long base. The handle has used the 50 day MVA (53.36) as support, working laterally the past two weeks over 34 on lower, below average volume. Accumulation in the large base is a solid 16 to 9 (16 up price weeks on rising volume to 9 down price weeks on rising volume), indicating there has been overall buying in the stock as it moved through the base. Money flow is solid, and this quiet action in the handle often occurs before a breakout. We are looking at moving in before it clears the highs in the handle near 40; a good volume move will get us to start positions, and then we add on the break over 40.
Volume: 1.723M Avg Volume: 3.255M
BUY POINT: $36.28 Volume=4.9M Target=$43.55 Stop=$33.74
POSITION: UVM KG - Nov. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mrvl.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
TKLC (Tekelec--$14.36; -0.08; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tklc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TKLC just broke out of a 2 month cup base that formed immediately following the breakout from its first base off of the low in the in its long downtrend. The current base sports excellent 4 to 1 accumulation, excellent money flow, and relative strength that is ready to breakout as well. The stock blasted higher Wednesday on strong earnings and then spent the next two sessions pulling back on lower volume. It did try to rally Thursday with the market early, but faded as did most stocks. It may take another couple of sessions to complete the test that would basically form the handle that did not have time to form before the earnings announcement. We will look for it to test near 14 and then start higher on volume. Very nice action and a very solid pattern.
Volume: 454.235K Avg Volume: 690.545K
BUY POINT: $14.78 Volume=1M Target=$17.75 Stop=$13.75
POSITION: KQ KC - Nov. $15c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tklc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/02/2003
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$14.31; -0.36; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Double top. CMVT double topped in June and July, a bearish pattern. It immediately tumbled below the 50 day MVA (14.63) on that move. It has spent the past two weeks on a low volume recovery, moving up to the simple 50 day (15.15). It failed at that level Thursday and then gapped lower Friday. Looking for a continued move lower from here to take advantage of what looks to be a drop down to support near 12.
Volume: 2.309M Avg Volume: 3.459M
BUY POINT: $14.12 Volume=3.5M Target=$12 Stop=$14.94
POSITION: CQV UC - Sept. $15p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmvt.html
Play Date: 08/02/2003
PG (Procter & Gamble--$86.7; -1.17; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pg.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Maybe the US is clean enough or Oxy Clean is stealing business. Whatever the reason, over the past 4 months PG has formed a bearish head and shoulders base. It toyed around with breaking the neckline and the coincident 200 day MVA (87.65), rallying all the way to 90 on the Thursday high before giving that gain back, reversing on strong trade. Thursday it sliced through the 200 day on another strong volume shot, closing right at the session low. The breakdown from the pattern opens the door for a move down. We are being conservative, just looking for a nice gain on the break of the pattern. If it falls more we will let it.
Volume: 4.677M Avg Volume: 3.348M
BUY POINT: $86.54 Volume=4M Target=$83 Stop=$87.88
POSITION: PG VR - Oct. $90p (-78 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pg.html
Continuing plays ready:
Play Date: 07/28/2003
IMA (Inverness Medical--$21.04; +0.28; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ima.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Working on a 4 month pattern, working up the 18 day MVA on the lows (20.33) with a constant top at 21.25ish. Outstanding 7 to 3 accumulation in the base, and that sets the foundation for a nice breakout. Volume has been swelling the past week, and we look for continued strong volume on a move through the buy point.
Volume: 150.2K Avg Volume: 86.772K
BUY POINT: $21.42 Volume=115K Target=$25.72 Stop=$19.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ima.html
Play Date: 07/23/2003
LLTC (Linear Technology--$37.15; +0.4; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lltc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Working in a 3 month base that has formed up very nicely, LLTC is showing great relative strength, rallying Friday up off the 10 day MVA (36.03) as the rest of the market sold. Super pattern with strong money flow leading the way.
Volume: 4.875M Avg Volume: 6.636M
BUY POINT: New: $37.75 (orig. $37.35) Volume=9M Target=$44.85 Stop=$35.55
POSITION: LLQ KU - Nov. $37.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lltc.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Still look good: INTC; MCTR; RTEC; SIE; TSCM; ULCM; XMSR
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEIS 07/22 Rv H&S 19.36 -0.16 19.36 24 233K 550K 17.96
Buy Not Issued. Dropping until it forms up better.
AMEV 07/26 A Wedge 6.36 -0.04 5.75 6.88 113K 200K 5.52
Current.
AMEV 06/07 Test BO 6.36 -0.04 4.75 6 113K 102K 4.44
Target Hit. Took the gain after the higher volume reversal Thursday.
ASPM 06/30 FlyPlat 9.14 -0.04 8.65 10.42 38K 115K 7.88
Buy Not Issued. One of those stocks moving up on very low volume. Dropping
for now as it never gave us a volume move.
ATYT 06/23 Cup hdl 12.8 +0.4 9.7 11.88 2.2M 2.4M 10.44
Current. Excellent recovery after turning back from a strong
move Tuesday.
AVCI 07/30 Cup 7.3 +0.01 7.35 9 68K 129K 6.84
Buy Not Hit. Strong surge Thursday but with the Friday market it
took a breather.
BDY 07/16 Test BO 19.12 +0.42 19.58 23.25 237K 376K 18.21
Current. After the big gap higher Thursday that failed, a decent
recovery Friday off the 10 day MVA.
BEBE 07/01 Test BO 21.93 -0.41 20.9 24.95 157K 321K 21.62
Current. Still working laterally over the 18 day MVA.
CCMP 07/07 Cup hdl 62.24 +0.13 61.05 71 593K 1.3M 59.25
Current. Trying to break away toward the end of the week but
kept giving it back as the market could not gain traction.
CELL 07/21 Cup hdl 27.12 +0.93 19.25 23.25 460K 225K 24.35
Current. Big gap on split and holding the gains quite well.
CHINA 07/29 Test 18 11.99 -0.11 13.88 17.35 4.6M 15M 12.88
Buy Not Hit. Nice tight doji on low volume right on the 18 day MVA.
May be ready again.
CHINA 06/21 Test BO 11.99 -0.11 7.95 9.55 4.6M 2.8M 11.78
Current.
CHMD 06/10 FlyPlat 11.5 +0.03 10.54 12.55 55K 155K 11.32
Current. Holdign the 18 day MVA with a hammer doji on low volume.
CHS 07/23 Test BO 27.63 +0.48 27.05 31.25 1.2M 2.2M 25.85
Current. Defied the market, continuing the breakout.
CMVT 08/02 Dbl Top 14.31 -0.36 14.12 12 2.3M 3.5M 14.94
New.
COHU 07/24 Rv H&S 20.51 +0.63 19.85 23.88 481K 155K 19.12
Current. Outstanding surge at the end of the week.
COLT 07/24 BO 5.34 -0.01 5.3 6.68 52K 200K 4.93
Current. Excellent low volume doji right over the 10 day MVA.
That was the test we wanted so we entered.
CRAY 07/22 Test BO 11.21 +0.13 9.73 11.75 2.2M 1.4M 9.94
Current. What a breakout surge from the great pattern.
DKS 03/18 DB hdl 36.23 -1.77 23.81 28.42 592K 225K 35.94
Current. Dove below the 18 day MVA on much stronger, above average
volume. Manged to recover over the stop point. Will
watch for a test of 38, but if it fails there we may
need to take the nice gain.
DKS 02/19 DB hdl 36.23 -1.77 22.75 27.35 592K 225K 35.94
Current.
DSCM 07/10 Test BO 5.76 +0.2 6.36 8.12 334K 425K 5.91
Buy Not Hit. Volume started to edge up off the 50 day. May be ready
but want to see it clear that late July bump.
DVA 05/17 Cup hdl 27 -1 25.11 30 1.4M 573K 27.55
Current. Finally showing some weakness, breaking the 18 day
MVA on strong volume. Recovered the 50 day on the close.
Looking for a bounce back over 28 or may have to thake
the rest of the gain.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 8.16 0 8.75 10.48 184K 400K 8.14
Buy Not Issued. Looks to be crouching for a move in this very nice pattern.
EXLT 06/16 Flat 9.2 -0.58 9 11 496K 1.1M 9.25
Exited. Trailing stop used to preserve some gain.
FFIV 07/14 A Wedge 18.06 -0.69 18.96 23 510K 800K 17.55
Buy Not Issued. Tried the run thursday, but w/market reversing we held
off. Friday it tested back further and tapped the
18 day before recovering. Will let it reload.
FLSH 05/22 Test BO 15.76 +0.06 10.55 12.75 247K 195K 14.42
Current.
FLSH 05/12 Rv H&S 15.76 +0.06 9.2 10.96 247K 195K 14.42
Current. Excellent week, rallying to 16 and now it is ready
to take a rest.
FSII 07/12 Cup hdl 4.95 -0.05 4.9 6.25 115K 333K 4.55
Current. Struggling on the cusp of the breakout, but still working
up the 10 day MVA.
GERN 06/16 Test BO 7.85 -0.36 7.55 9.95 400K 2.5M 7.85
Exited. Broke the 18 day MVA again and did not like the action.
GPRO 06/17 A Wedge 54.09 -0.91 41.75 48 773K 766K 51.65
Current.
GPRO 04/05 Dbl btm 54.09 -0.91 26.5 30.75 773K 521K 51.65
Current. Managed to hold up. holding the 10 day MVA Friday with
a doji. What it needed to do.
HPOL 07/08 Test BO 7.1 -0.2 7.22 8.95 543K 541K 6.68
Current. Tough Thursday, but sold but managed to hold support
at 7 Friday with a nice, tight doji.
HPOL 06/14 Test BO 7.1 -0.2 6.7 8.38 543K 541K 6.68
Current.
HPOL 06/04 Cup hdl 7.1 -0.2 5.85 6.95 543K 541K 6.68
Target Hit. Took part of the gain on the position. Showed a big,
tight doji at support at seven so let the rest ride.
IDT 07/12 Cup hdl 18.07 0 18.35 21.95 103K 200K 17.88
Buy Not Issued. Still working laterally over the 18 day MVA. Just
watching it as it continues to improve.
IMA 07/28 A Wedge 21.04 +0.28 21.42 25.72 150K 115K 19.92
Buy Not Hit. Getting ready.
INB 06/24 Cup hdl 8 -0.88 6.15 7.88 71K 80K 8.38
Exited. Borke lower Friday on volume so went ahead and closed
it with a trailing stop.
INTC 07/31 FlyPlat 25.02 +0.13 25.56 30.65 49M 75M 24
Buy Not Hit. Really looks ready.
INTU 06/26 Put 42.86 -0.27 42.35 38.05 2.5M 6M 43.45
Buy Not Issued. New buy point after it has struggled to clear the 50
day MVA for several days.
KFY 06/28 Cup hdl 10.32 -0.38 9.05 10.95 564K 130K 9.52
Current. Oustanding breakout Thursday. Tested back Friday but
held much of the move.
KLAC 07/19 Cup hdl 52.21 +0.56 52.25 60 7.1M 14M 50.12
Current. Very nice relative strength Friday, holding the 18
day on the low and maintaining its good pattern.
KLIC 08/02 Test BO 8.69 +0.02 9.12 11.55 681K 1.5M 8.48
New.
LLTC 07/23 Rv H&S 37.15 +0.4 37.35 44.85 4.9M 9M 35.55
Current. Another chip stock showing solid relative strength
Friday. Looks ready for more upside as the chips held
their ground.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 68.45 -1.55 58.5 67.78 425K 610K 68.15
Current. Edged below the 18 day on the close. Moved up the stop
& taking no chances.
MCTR 07/28 Test BO 2.45 -0.01 2.55 3.35 800K 367K 2.28
Buy Not Issued. Huge break higher early last week, but has come back
to test that move, holding the 10 day MVA Friday &
started up on some volume. Good test and looks ready
to resume the move.
MDCC 07/21 Cup hdl 17.87 -0.88 18.35 22.35 50K 275K 17.94
Current. Suddenly struggling, dumping back to the 18 day MVA.
Low volume so we let it make this test.
MDP 07/16 Cup hdl 45.3 -0.18 47.12 56.55 166K 340K 45
Buy Not Hit. May be a shakeout down to the 50 day. Will keep watching
it but dropping for now.
MER 04/28 Cup hdl 53.45 -0.92 43.32 49.55 7.5M 7.5M 52.34
Current. Gave the Thursday move back as large financials suffered.
MER held up better than most as it is not as interest
rate sensitive.
MERX 07/15 Cup hdl 10.55 -0.1 10.52 12.75 314K 248K 9.78
Current. Nice breakout Thursday and held up very well Friday.
MKSI 07/21 Cup hdl 22.12 -0.36 22.25 27.95 232K 488K 21.68
Current. Holding up at the 18 day MVA along with most chips.
MKSI 07/14 Cup hdl 22.12 -0.36 22.8 27.95 232K 488K 21.68
Current.
MRGE 07/19 Test BO 14.48 -0.29 16.35 19.65 148K 239K 14
Sold below support at 14 but managed to recover with
a strong surge back up off the 50 day MVA.
MRGE 04/24 Rv H&S 14.48 -0.29 8.06 10.45 148K 65K 14.38
Current.
MRVL 08/02 Cup hdl 35.32 +0.18 36.28 43.55 1.7M 4.9M 33.74
New.
MXO 07/22 Test BO 10 0 10.18 12.25 2.2M 4.6M 9.47
Current. Nice tight lateral range over the 10 day looks to be
setting up the next move.
NEWP 07/29 Cup hdl 17.23 +0.03 17.66 21.35 163K 552K 16.44
Current. Moving laterally after the breakout.
NTN 07/26 FlyPlat 2.39 -0.05 2.44 3.32 71K 200K 2.18
Current. Strong surge Monday and testing it the rest of the
week on lower volume.
ONNN 06/21 Test BO 2.84 -0.08 3 3.75 277K 900K 3.18
Current. Still holding the 50 day MVA after the Thursday gap
lower. Still looking for a rebounding up off this level
toward 3.25 to exit.
ONXX 07/19 Test 18 15.97 +0.26 15.48 18.55 346K 495K 15
Current. Working up the 10 day, but struggling to clear the
early July high at 16.
OPSW 07/15 Test BO 5.83 -0.17 6 7.32 966K 850K 5.45
Current. Strong break higher Thursday on volume, edging back
Friday on lower volume.
PG 08/02 H&S 86.7 -1.17 86.54 83 4.7M 4M 87.88
New.
PHMD 07/17 Test BO 2.9 -0.05 2.9 3.75 92K 150K 2.68
Current. Still working laterally the past three weeks, holding
the 18 day MVA on the lows.
PIXR 07/30 Test 18 66.99 -0.81 68.25 78.48 346K 1.3M 65.55
Buy Not Hit.
PIXR 07/05 Cup hdl 66.99 -0.81 62.8 71.75 346K 1.2M 65.94
Current. Workign laterally over the 18 day after it tried the
brekaout but eased back.
PPE 07/12 Test BO 8.82 -0.13 9.28 12 1.1M 1.6M 8.82
Buy Not Hit. Dont like the action so dropping for now.
PTEK 07/29 Cup hdl 6.13 -0.3 6.18 8 391K 276K 5.73
Buy Not Issued. Tried to rally last week but then turned back Friday
to test the 18 day on the low before rebounding. Another
test of 6 and up from here on volume is the entry.
PWAV 07/15 Test BO 7.63 -0.07 8.12 9.75 1.5M 2.1M 7.45
Buy Not Hit. Still waiting for that bounce with strong volume.
RIMM 07/31 Cup hdl 27.28 +3.2 24.38 29.35 15M 2.5M 22.67
Buy Not Issued. Exploded higher on rumor of takeover, never really
giving an entry until the afternoon when it pulled
back. Dont like buying on takeover rumors. Best to
let it test back when the excitement dies down.
RTEC 07/31 Cup hdl 20.65 +0.6 21.06 25.28 291K 522K 19.59
Buy Not Hit. Nice volume Friday as it looks to be getting ready.
SIE 07/30 Test BO 25.07 -1.25 27.12 32.55 459K 700K 25.22
Buy Not Hit. Lower volume test of the 10 day MVA. Stil a nice test
in progress.
SINA 06/26 Test 18 33.39 -1.37 17.71 21.25 5.3M 4M 30.52
Current. Testing the 10 day and the strong move up, fading back
on very low, below average volume. Nice test.
SOHU 06/21 Test 50 37.18 -2.56 28.5 35 2.5M 2.5M 32.48
Current. Broke the 18 day on still below volume. going to let
it try a recovery early this week.
STST 07/07 Test BO 16.6 -0.62 15.29 18.12 127K 103K 16.58
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop to take the rest of the
gain off the table. It recovered off the low but was
closign below the 18 day so we closed it.
SWIR 07/07 Test BO 9.77 -0.22 7.38 8.96 265K 355K 8.96
Current. Just a super move up the 10 day MVA. Still working
higher though getting ready for a test as it continues
bouncing higher.
TKLC 08/02 Test BO 14.36 -0.08 14.78 17.75 454K 1M 13.75
New.
TPTH 06/18 A Wedge 6.75 -0.39 7.4 8.95 200K 352K 6.98
Current. Was holding up but a very late session drop took it
down harder. Needs to rebound or out.
TSAI 07/30 Cup hdl 12.4 +0.3 11.75 13.88 495K 240K 10.96
Current. What a move to end the week with a stealler, high volume
breakout.
TSCM 07/17 Rv H&S 5.58 0 5.82 7.55 70K 210K 5.38
Buy Not Hit. Champing at the bit.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 55.71 +0.31 46.85 55.25 217K 603K 53.25
Current. Very nice, tight lateral move over the 10 day.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 55.71 +0.31 43.75 52 217K 603K 53.25
Current.
TYL 07/26 Cup hdl 5.17 +0.22 5.48 6.88 178K 240K 5.15
Current. After breaking out it tanked, but then recovered to
the 18 day Friday, so seeing if it will recover.
ULCM 07/29 Cup hdl 11.9 +0.22 12.22 14.96 17K 186K 11.36
Buy Not Hit. Still solid, holding the 10 day on low volume.
VRTS 08/19 CCall 30.6 -0.17 19.76 20 4.6M 8.5M 29.06
Current.
VSEA 07/12 Test BO 32.96 -0.29 34.5 40.95 847K 1.4M 32.08
Current. Not holding up as well as other chips, moving below
the 18 day. It recovers or we close it.
VVTV 07/19 Cup hdl 16.96 -0.36 16.95 20.45 184K 250K 15.86
Current. Nice breakout Thursday, gapped higher Friday, but then
fell back. Lower volume so still in good shape.
WWCA 07/23 BO 15.48 +0.83 14.48 17.45 1.6M 824K 14
Current.
WWCA 05/22 BO 15.48 +0.83 11.42 13.85 1.6M 824K 14
Current. Another super break higher from a super stock.
XICO 07/02 A Wedge 8.54 -0.25 7.25 8.65 89K 172K 7.98
Current. Good, steady move higher all week.
XMSR 07/16 Cup hdl 14.05 +0.28 14.25 17.25 5.2M 11M 13.12
Buy Not Hit. Tried the breakout but faded. Looks ready still.
XOMA 07/28 Rv H&S 8.2 +0.68 7.15 8.68 4.4M 1.5M 6.65
Buy Not Issued. Gapped higher Friday, giving us no real chance to get in.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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